Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns

State breakdowns from recent polling by both Newspoll and Ipsos agree that Queensland remains a major headache for the Turnbull government.

The Australian has today brought us its quarterly Newspoll breakdowns, whereby three months of polling is condensed into results broken down for the five mainland states, so as to provide such numbers from reliable sample sizes. That much at least was predictable, but we also have today the same exercise from Ipsos courtesy of the Fairfax papers, which is a first. This is because Ipsos poll samples have been pared back from 1400 to 1200, presumably for reasons of cost, and the pollster no longer cares to publish state breakdowns from such small sub-samples, and has thus gone down the Newspoll path of aggregating them on a quarterly basis.

The Australian provides comprehensive Newspoll tables if you’re a subscriber (also featuring breakdowns by gender, three age cohorts and mainland state capitals versus the rest), but all we’ve got from Fairfax so far as I can see is two-party results (more detail may follow in due course). In New South Wales, Newspoll has Labor leading 52-48, while Ipsos has 53-47 (there’s an error in the Fin Review graphic, but that’s what it is); in Victoria, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, and no less than 56-44 from Ipsos (which is most of the reason Ipsos’s results have been better for Labor lately than Newspoll’s); in Queensland, it’s 53-47 from Newspoll, 52-48 from Ipsos; in Western Australia, Newspoll has it at 50-50, while Ipsos unusually has the Coalition up 53-47; and in South Australia, Newspoll has Labor up 51-49, while Ipsos has it at 52-48 (the latter is inclusive of the Northern Territory, although that shouldn’t matter much – ditto for Newspoll rolling the Australian Capital Territory into New South Wales).

All of which should put BludgerTrack on a firmer footing for its update later this week, despite the likelihood that there will be no new national poll. Also out today is a ReachTEL state poll from Victoria, which is covered in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,147 comments on “Newspoll and Ipsos state breakdowns”

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  1. DTT

    There is scads of evidence of Putin’s Gay Hate Pogram, which includes first hand accounts of gay defenestration, gay murders, gay hate laws, gay bashings and gay jailings. They even had to announce a gay persecution ‘barley charlie’ in case other states banned their citizens and their football teams from playing in the World Cup. Here is a small prediction. Once the World Cup is over it will be business as usual for Putin’s Gay Hate Pogrom.

  2. Nah,Rex and CC, Julia will appear in diving gear, surrounded by the 8 Australian divers, especially called out from their life-saving duties, to announce their presence was the chief component of Australia’s South East Asian overseas aid contribution.

  6. DTT
    If it is fine for Russia to grab the Crimea then it would be fine for Germany to grab… oh, wait… and for Russia to grab Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Of course Poland could grab large bits of Russia and the Finland could grab large bits of Russia as well.
    A whole lot of grabbing would go on according to the Putin rule: might is right.

  10. BK
    No, it is evident that you admire and respect Ms Sharkie, and for good reason.
    I was just commenting on your unabashed response to the visually-improved Mr Canavani.

  11. Jug Ears is on #qanda tonight

    That sort of thing is the reason I always had my doubts about allowing image embedding on the blog.

  12. Fulvio

    And Julie will no doubt tack on a few extra days at a luxury hotel somewhere for government business, accompanied by a male friend whose expense we pay as well.

  13. CC – re Shorten and the kids: And I expect the Liberals to blame Shorten, if dog forbid, something does to wrong with getting the rest of the kids and the coach, out.
    Morrison could not help himself a few days ago while he was doing his shouty act (again) about the 9 Billion for GST from the Liberal Magic Pudding 8 years from now, about all taxes being Labor’s fault.
    The local West rag belled the cat this morning from Wright who maintained it was rich for the Liberals to shout “Debt and Deficit” just s few years ago, while the debt has doubled under the Libs in the last 5 years.
    So much for Liberal rectitude when it comes to debt and deficit.
    Both political parties do hypocrisy but the Liberals are better than Labor at it.

  15. Richard Glover is such a gutless wonder. The usual cop-out:
    ‘Some people say the NEG renewable energy target is too low and some peope say it is too high’

    As if they are equivalent…

  16. Tricot

    In a discussion the other day about how bad The West Australian is I was of a mind to give Shane Wright a tick.

    He is a straighter shooter than most.

  17. That sort of thing is the reason I always had my doubts about allowing image embedding on the blog.

    Sad.
    ?rect=645,16,1806,1806&q=98&fm=jpg&fit=max&w=640&h=640

  18. adrian @ #315 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 6:33 pm

    Richard Glover is such a gutless wonder. The usual cop-out:
    ‘Some people say the NEG renewable energy target is too low and some peope say it is too high’

    As if they are equivalent…

    The Goldilocks of management would posit as being just right!

  20. C@tmomma@4:42pm
    “Guilt by association”
    “I see the green grubs are back”.
    Do you disagree that Shorten was not best man at Roskam’s marriage? If you do not agree with Pegasus, why do you not agree with that? When we are associating “guilt by association” to Latham and lot of LNP types, I do not see anything wrong with Pegasus arguing that way.
    BTW, Shorten being best man at Roskam’s wedding is news to me.

  21. And the political implications of being requested to be best man at some one’s wedding have equivalence with appearing in political advertising against a party you were once the leader of, exactly how?

  22. The God Parents of one of my children are an ex-ALP Staffer and a Union Organiser. I also socialise with current and past ALP Parliamentarians. My wife and kids have been in ALP Campaign materials (they are much more photogenic than me). My wife and I vote Liberal.

  23. ABC has an article on families badly affected by high energy bills (apparently on 7.30 tonight). This quote from Turnbull is a gem:

    The Government is under pressure from its own side to consider a royal commission into high energy prices.

    While the Prime Minister has dismissed those calls, he has announced that a major report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) into the cost of electricity will be released this week.

    “It’s a very, very comprehensive report,” he said.

    “It’ll bear a lot of careful consideration and discussion.

    “It will be a very, very illuminating report.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/how-families-are-coping-with-surging-power-prices/9958952

  24. Fulvio Sammut @ #320 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 3:54 pm

    And the political implications of being requested to be best man at some one’s wedding have equivalence with appearing in political advertising against a party you were once the leader of, exactly how?

    It’s obvious.

    The first thing you consider when meeting someone and forming a friendship are political beliefs.

    I know it’s always something I considered down the surf, footy or cricket club when encountering a new team mate.

    FFS!!!!

  25. citizen @ #323 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:00 pm

    ABC has an article on families badly affected by high energy bills (apparently on 7.30 tonight). This quote from Turnbull is a gem:

    The Government is under pressure from its own side to consider a royal commission into high energy prices.

    While the Prime Minister has dismissed those calls, he has announced that a major report by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) into the cost of electricity will be released this week.

    “It’s a very, very comprehensive report,” he said.

    “It’ll bear a lot of careful consideration and discussion.

    “It will be a very, very illuminating report.”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-09/how-families-are-coping-with-surging-power-prices/9958952

    “It will be a very, very illuminating report.”

    Depends on whether you can afford the electricity tariff!

  26. As it should be, CC.

    Many of the people I associate with, and consider my friends, are Liberal voters.

    They may be politically muddled and confused, but I still like them.

  27. ‘Borat’ has been undercover for a year. Teasers for what is coming out. He gets Dick Cheney to sign a ‘waterboard’ kit !!!
    https://twitter.com/SachaBaronCohen/status/1016082033099997184/video/1

    Baron Cohen’s very first tweet, posted on July 5, goaded none other than the President of the United States, who has previously publicly slammed the comedian:
    Showtime has described Cohen’s character in Who Is America? as “shameless,” “unhinged,” and “cold-blooded,” and that the program is “perhaps the most dangerous show in the history of television.”

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12085805

  30. Fulvio

    And you forgot about the kids you met at school. First thing I would ask my fellow pre-schoolers these days is how they will vote when they are 35,

  32. GG

    ““It will be a very, very illuminating report.”
    Depends on whether you can afford the electricity tariff!”

    Apparently the ACCC report that Turnbull is ecstatic about, glows in the dark. The only downside is that it is coated with radioactive ink!

  34. FS

    My post was in response to:

    “Latham and Hanson – if you want to know something about a persons character – see who they associate with”

    My response was to highlight and to make a general observation about the superficiality of judging any person’s character by the company they keep, specificall so narrowly as keeping company with a single individual.

    Anyone could apply the guilt by association tactic to smear another.

    My response:

    “The old guilt by association can be applied to anyone, including Shorten.

    Shorten was best man at the wedding of his close friend John Roskam, executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-the-shapeshifter-20150616-ghowjg.html c

  35. And me too! There is nothing intrinsically evil about LNP voters. They are generally nice people – deluded, bemused and lost their way, but I do not hold that against them. They are a bit like Eagles supporters………….. but having said this, you cannot cast them into the pit for their shallow thinking alone.

  37. “It’s a very, very comprehensive report,” he said.

    “It’ll bear a lot of careful consideration and discussion.

    “It will be a very, very illuminating report.”

    It’s the best report ever.

    #TurnbullchannelsTrump

  38. Tricot @ #335 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:15 pm

    And me too! There is nothing intrinsically evil about LNP voters. They are generally nice people – deluded, bemused and lost their way, but I do not hold that against them. They are a bit like Eagles supporters………….. but having said this, you cannot cast them into the pit for their shallow thinking alone.

    “bemused”! Don’t speak of the dead!

  39. mikehilliard @ #337 Monday, July 9th, 2018 – 7:16 pm

    “It’s a very, very comprehensive report,” he said.

    “It’ll bear a lot of careful consideration and discussion.

    “It will be a very, very illuminating report.”

    It’s the best report ever.

    #TurnbullchannelsTrump

    I bet it has words and pages and is made of paper!

  40. I sincerely hope we never get to the current situation in the US where increasingly the political tribespeople live in like-minded suburbs, use like-minded media, and rarely talk to anyone with whom they disagree politically.
    The ability to and or the desire to persuade seems to be disappearing.

  42. Peg, that comment was in context of a discussion of the explicit, political association Latham chose to form with Hanson. Arguably – and I use that word because I myself might argue with myself over this 😉 – that qualifies it as less general a claim than your interpretation.

  44. Big skirmish brewing in the L/NP over “religious freedoms”.

    Liberal MP Tim Wilson has lent support for a call to protect religious people from discrimination but warned legal changes must not cause unintended consequences such as “marginalisation” of other groups.

    Social affairs minister Dan Tehan sparked the debate with a speech on 22 June, which was also published in the Australian newspaper on Saturday, in which he said discrimination on the basis of religion should be prohibited.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/09/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-warns-on-unintended-consequences-of-religious-freedom-law

  50. Barney@7:01pm
    I agree a lot of political things with PBers. But are any of you my best mates? You know the answer.

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