BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Boerwar
    Certainly I agree with guns being powerful both in practical and symbolic terms and the more sensibly the legislature can manage this problem the better.
    I no longer have access to the mental health library I previously did, so I’ll need to do a visit to my local and see what I can find in relation to female murderers.
    Most of the cases I’ve seen in Australia of women killing their children fall into a number of categories:
    Psychotic (the case I noted above, the woman in FNQ who killed her kids), complex PTSD(the woman who drove her children into the lake in Altona).
    I cannot recall any case of a woman killing her children because she thought she was going to lose out financially somehow. How would that work anyway?
    I’ll check back in tomorrow but I’m off for a bit more Counterpart: recommended

  2. ‘Pegasus says:
    Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 7:03 pm
    B,
    lol individuals, including z, never bad mouthing me when i am not around. Pull the other one. I wait with bated breath for you to call them out.’
    As I keep telling you, there is nothing funny about the Greens.
    Z was not in the room. You paid her out. You could achieve a reset by apologizing for this bit of bad behaviour.
    Your responses to my earlier posts were also rather bullying, BTW, so a bit of pot-kettling going on here.
    In terms of who stands on the side lines, and when, I note that you have never ventured in to criticize the pack bullying that I am subject to, from time to time. In fact, you have joined it, from time to time.
    So (1) you do behave badly from time to time, as we all do, and (2) you never apologize for doing so, as most of us never do, and (3) you apply your own standards inconsistently which some or many of us do some of the time and (4) you find space to do a bit of whinging which some of us do as well from time to time.

    I suggest you forget about the PB personalities and focus on the issues and the numbers.

  3. How about we all just refrain from bullying and abuse? It’s not that hard.

    Depends how you define it, Rex. I classify snark, sniping and condescension as passive aggressive forms of bullying and abuse. If that disappears, I’m fine with that.

    It’s just that some people can’t cope with robust challenges to their worldview.

  4. HSO
    ‘I cannot recall any case of a woman killing her children because she thought she was going to lose out financially somehow. How would that work anyway?’

    Female murderers kill children for one set of reasons and they kill men for financial reasons.

  5. Boerwar,
    Fyi, I have never personally waded into the bullying of you with my 2 cents-worth, even though I find it abhorrent, because, being who I am it generally occasions the fire being turned upon me too and I cop enough of it as it is. Also, you seem a robust character to me and I thought you have generally been able to hold your own.

    Also, I apologise if going on about the 22 points awarded to the Coalition at the last election hurt your feelings. 🙂

  6. C
    No worries. I reckon we should just focus on the issues which is that the Coalition is a massively destructive Government and that the Greens are helping the Coalition with their constant attacks on Labor.

  7. In terms of who stands on the side lines, and when, I note that you have never ventured in to criticize the pack bullying that I am subject to, from time to time. In fact, you have joined it, from time to time.
    So (1) you do behave badly from time to time, as we all do, and (2) you never apologize for doing so, as most of us never do, and (3) you apply your own standards inconsistently which some or many of us do some of the time and (4) you find space to do a bit of whinging which some of us do as well from time to time.

    I suggest you forget about the PB personalities and focus on the issues and the numbers.

    Well said Boerwar. Pegasus has never chipped bemused for his sexist, misogynistic abuse of me and others either. Pot-kettle much.

  8. And speaking of personalities, I take it Trog hasn’t commented for a while then. The last we heard he was battling cancer, hence my enquiry.

    And still no CTar either. 🙁

  9. Confessions @ #408 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 7:50 pm

    And speaking of personalities, I take it Trog hasn’t commented for a while then. The last we heard he was battling cancer, hence my enquiry.

    And still no CTar either. 🙁

    Yes. Trog’s cancer seemed very aggressive and already at Stage 4. I guess he has more important things to worry about atm.

    CTar1’s absence still fills me with sadness because I just don’t have any idea what happened to him and he was such a gentleman and a gentle soul that provided much-needed wisdom, balance and ballast to PB.

  10. “Well said Boerwar. Pegasus has never chipped bemused for his sexist, misogynistic abuse of me and others either. Pot-kettle much.”

    But … Labor.

  11. Boerwar @ #406 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    C
    No worries. I reckon we should just focus on the issues which is that the Coalition is a massively destructive Government and that the Greens are helping the Coalition with their constant attacks on Labor.

    Exactly. Yet you try and point that out to them and you are the worst in the world!
    *sigh*

  12. Josh Bornstein
    ‏Verified account @JoshBBornstein
    10h10 hours ago

    Another AFR article proclaiming the end of wage stagnation. About 15 such articles since January.

  13. Boerwar
    As far as I am aware, and I’ll have to do some research to back this up, the main reason women kill their partners is in the context of longitudinal, severe domestic violence.
    I can’t recall a case of a woman killing her partner for financial gain.
    Anyway, tomorrow, bludgers.

  14. Zoidlord

    It would be 1500 articles since Jan 2015. I’m sure I’ve heard glad tidings from the Coalition that wage growth will be going up and up and up ‘next year’ for years now.

  15. HSO

    This link seems to indicate financial gain. The difference might between legitimate killing and murder with gain as a motivation.

    I am aware of females killing males following a life time of abuse. This happened with one of our neighbours. However it was not classed as murder. She was charged (she had shot him while he was unarmed) but acquitted.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-05/female-murderers-more-likely-motivated-by-love-financial-gain/9378404

  16. I can’t find any study connecting psychopathy with domineering mothers – the closest I can come to is that there is a strong genetic element to psychopathy, which means a psychopath was likely to have at least one abnormal parent.

    wikipedia provides this list of possible causes:

    ‘ The strongest factors included having a convicted parent, being physically neglected, low involvement of the father with the boy, low family income, and coming from a disrupted family. Other significant factors included poor supervision, harsh discipline, large family size, delinquent sibling, young mother, depressed mother, low social class, and poor housing..’

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychopathy

    I would also note that psychopaths (in my understanding) are not necessarily violent, and lots of them lead quite successful lives, because they ‘pretend’ to be normal and recognise that looking normal is the best survival mechanism available to them.

    A true psychopath doesn’t care about anyone other than themselves – so they don’t care if you die or not. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll go to the effort of killing someone, just if they do it won’t worry them much (other than the being caught bit).

    Locking up psychopaths who haven’t committed crimes is thus a bit fraught. Firstly, it’s not as easy to identify them as people think (as I said, they ‘fake’ well). Secondly, they might never ever offend, and may even make valuable contributions to society (even if it is out of supreme selfishness).

  17. Boerwar

    Won’t happen. No reason to. Supply and demand ? Import more ‘457’ , Unions muscle , legislatively screwed them, milk of human kindness from the Bizoids 😆 😆 😆 ;lol: 😆

    Mind you I say this as someone who just had the annual salary review and scored a 4.25% increase 😀 Rest got the CPI . Which means in the real world a wage cut 🙁

  18. From memory, the majority of murders committed by women in Australia are as a result of domestic violence – that is, self defence or murdering the perpetrator.

    That leaves 8% of the murders in Australia being committed by women for other reasons.

  19. I would also note that psychopaths (in my understanding) are not necessarily violent, and lots of them lead quite successful lives, because they ‘pretend’ to be normal and recognise that looking normal is the best survival mechanism available to them.

    I read a book years ago that was the result of longitudinal research about psychopathy in the workplace. As far as that research was concerned, ‘workplace psychopaths’ are invariably charming, friendly, give an outward appearance of care and concern, and can even be diligent team players.

    At the time I was working for a workplace psychopath and it certainly summed her up perfectly.

  20. Z
    ‘Locking up psychopaths who haven’t committed crimes is thus a bit fraught. Firstly, it’s not as easy to identify them as people think (as I said, they ‘fake’ well). Secondly, they might never ever offend, and may even make valuable contributions to society (even if it is out of supreme selfishness).’

    I agree.

    OTOH, in many cases of murder, some individuals around pretty well knew at least some of the red flag signals. In the latest murder suicide case, apparently, already an AVO and known as ‘grumpy’. Did the grumpiness involve violent language? Why did he get legal access to multiple weapons?

    If we turn drugs into a medical/health issue, use ankle-banding extensively, and redirect the massive resources saved to peak danger time (separation/divorce/custody/wealth splits) then, IMO, maybe we could prevent quite a few of the murders that happen today.

  21. Boer

    I can’t find the word ‘mother’ in that article at all, let alone ‘domineering mother’.

    A lot about controlling parents.

  22. The Norwegian University of Science and Technology interviewed high-security prisoners

    A limitation of that study, as it is obviously focusing on a) people who have committed a crime, and b) their crimes must’ve been such that justified incaceration in high security facilities.

  23. Boerwar

    For the last few decades the dice has been increasingly loaded by government legislation against ‘Teh workers’ maintaining their share of the GDP. With the Eloi so dependant on the low hanging fruit of screwing down wages as a means to gain their precious bonuses things ain’t going to change soon.

  24. What kind of person would dress their baby in a burning cross onesie? And do they actually take their kid proudly into the public?

    Despite its own policies against hateful content, Amazon still sells racist products—some of them marketed at children, a new study finds.

    Baby onesies featuring a burning cross, swastika necklaces, and “costumes” depicting a black man being lynched have all found a recent home on Amazon, according to a new study by the Action Center on Race and the Economy and the Partnership for Working Families. The study also found a trove of white supremacist literature that has been created on Amazon’s publishing platform. Those products lingered on the site despite Amazon’s policy prohibiting “products that promote or glorify hatred, violence, racial, sexual or religious intolerance or promote organizations with such views,” the company states on its website.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/nazi-childrens-books-kkk-onesies-are-for-sale-on-amazon?via=twitter_page

  25. Boer

    If you did find one and you can’t find it again, I suggest you reassess the idea that there is a link between psychopathy and domineering mothers.

    If there was, there’d be multiple references.

    As it is, most material I’m finding makes it clear that the sex of the parent is irrelevant (and genetics plays a major role, so, as I said before, a psychopath is likely to have a psychopath for a parent).

  26. z
    I will reassess as you suggest. It does rather look as if a domineering parent if problematical and a psychotic parent is more likely than a non-psychotic parent to raise psychotic children.

  27. Boerwar
    It is going to end badly. For the umpteenth time I’ll refer to JK Galbraith and the reason he gave why post WWII Europe went for ‘Welfare State’ ( he was part of planning it so would know) . Stopping the ‘masses’ adopting, due to poverty, political extremes be they left or right. The ‘joke’ being as he explained it was that rather than to protect the workers it was to protect the wealth of the ‘elites’. Nothing like the untermensch taking up pitchforks to really screw over you assets.

    For the last few decades the winding back of that safety net has moved us closer and closer to de ja vu all over again.

  28. C@t:

    Thanks for that video clip! Schmidt is correct when he says nobody will win a vileness or dishonesty contest with Trump because he is the most vile and dishonest. I’m not 100% with him when he says (wtte) praising the good and decent will defeat the vile and dishonest because history is littered with examples of how the bastards always win in the end.

    Incidentally Schmidt is a guest on Real Time when it returns in August.

  29. Rex Douglas @ #368 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 6:43 pm

    C@tmomma @ #297 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 4:36 pm

    Pegasus @ #288 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 4:17 pm

    AE

    Projection.

    $25 million spent on the homeless living on the streets , for example, would get them through winter and probably save lives.

    …..

    You truly are a pathetic specimen, Pegasus.

    ……

    C@tmomma @ #304 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 5:00 pm

    Cynicism, that’s all Pegasus has. When she’s not employing sniping, snark or condescension. Not a generous bone in her body towards Labor. And she wonders why ALP members on this blog target her.

    C@tmomma @ #312 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 5:15 pm

    …..

    You truly are pathetic, Pegasus.

    C@tmomma @ #339 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 6:07 pm

    Pegasus @ #324 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 5:55 pm

    Who is going to be the first to exclaim “Quelle horreur!!!!” at the outcome of Mexico’s election?

    ….

    You are losing the plot, Pegasus.

    Why hasn’t anyone called out this blatant bullying and abuse ?? You should be ashamed of yourselves.

    Rex

    Perhaps other reasonable people have blocked Cat so that we never saw her posts.

    But yes it is appalling. Pegasus cops way more than her fare share of abuse from the Labor right wing troglodytes.

    Your concern is noted but sadly I think you are a Lib troll designed to cause discord between Labor and Greens. It is working.

  30. zoomster @ #433 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 8:29 pm

    Boer

    If you did find one and you can’t find it again, I suggest you reassess the idea that there is a link between psychopathy and domineering mothers.

    If there was, there’d be multiple references.

    As it is, most material I’m finding makes it clear that the sex of the parent is irrelevant (and genetics plays a major role, so, as I said before, a psychopath is likely to have a psychopath for a parent).

    Zoomster

    I have an old general medical text designed for first year out GPs. It covers everything from appendicitis to chicken pox but also includes a chapter on psychiatric illnesses. Now in this chapter it discusses psychopathy and much to my surprise more or less suggests it is a clearly gnetic (or physiological condition) which can be determined by the capillaries . I have no idea at all if this is complete outdated nonsense but the fact that it is written in a common,medical text gives it a teensy bit of weight.

    Perhaps the medicos here can tell me if it is completely outdated nonsense or not. The book is circa 1960. Came from my uncle.

  31. Confessions

    I will. My memory of what JK said in that hour long interview with Philip Adams is why I am not ‘overheated’ about Trump. In that he is just the inevitable result of years of shit policy, a symptom of a malaise rather than a cause. Shouting ‘Putin Putin Putin’ does not change the reality that they have done it to themselves and we,like the rest of the world, will suffer the consequences.

    So sing along with Eric Idle.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJUhlRoBL8M

  32. poroti:

    TRump’s collusion with Russia and his fetishising of authoritarian dictators is a result of his rank incompetence and wholesale unsuitability for office. His debasing the institutions that made America great are alone sufficient to warrant his impeachment.

    Whether Trump is a symptom or not is debatable IMO.

  33. ‘Fess,
    I thought the point Schmidt was trying to make was karmic. You keep calling out the good people do, especially in public life, as to do this helps to tip the scales in the other direction.

    For example, as we implore The Greens who post here to do. Praise the good things that Labor are trying to do, once in a while, instead of always looking through a microscope for their flaws.

    To do this, in general, provides the sort of good examples that we need to see highlighted in this day and age, when so much of the machinery of government and the media is aligned against what is right and proper, in order to benefit the elites and those who facilitate their grip on power.

  34. C@t:

    Perhaps I’m just pessimistic, but I’m not feeling his confidence that Trump’s America can be turned around by focusing on the good and the positive. There is sheer evil in his administration, born of white privilege, self entitlement, corruption, and an arrogance that they can continue to operate above the rule of law.

    That isn’t easy to overcome.

  35. Well all I care about tonight is a certqin football match starting in a couple of hours. Forgive me if I say why. A 9yr old child watched a glorious game of football in 1966. The team won and there was dancing in the street. It remains my earliest memory as a child. Since then the England team has failed dismally at every World Cup. Tonight they have the chance of progressing to the semi final.

    This song sums up the nation’s entiment. Wish us luck…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJqimlFcJsM

  36. Where’s ESJ?
    Knocking the top of a couple of cabsavs before the Englanders have a run around I suppose.
    English is not always a requirenent for the England team these days.
    They’ve done well to get this far!

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