BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. I’ve done a bit more hunting around, and apart from the CER numbers, I can’t seem to find numbers on battery installations that are not based on Sunwiz and their $4,500 “market report”.

    Many of these articles are clearly just plain ridiculous. So much so that I refuse to post links to them (google them if you must). I seriously doubt that the authors of any of these articles have actually purchased the report they are purporting to quote. They just seem to quote the headline figures, which are (as far as I can tell) “projections” or “estimates” that are never actually confirmed.

    I am beginning to think the whole thing is just smoke and mirrors (or perhaps “clouds and panels” would be a more appropriate metaphor) 🙁

  2. AE

    “a root and branch review” – When have we heard that one before.

    Henry Tax Review established in 2008, report published in 2010.

    March 2018: https://www.afr.com/opinion/editorials/ken-henry-revisits-a-great-lost-tax-opportunity-20180301-h0wv8k

    Eight years ago, Ken Henry headed the Rudd government’s supposed “root and branch” tax reform review.
    :::
    As NAB chairman, Dr Henry now points out that, by now, Australia could have bedded down just about all of his 2010 tax reform agenda. The GST and state payroll tax could have been replaced by simpler “cash flow” consumption tax on a much broader base, including food, health and education. That could help fund a simpler two-rate personal income tax to sharpen the incentives to work, save and invest. A lower 25 per cent company tax could have kept Australia’s capital taxation in touch with competitor nations, encouraging productivity-enhancing business investment. A national resource rent tax could have replaced less efficient state-based royalties. State stamp duties on property transactions that penalise growth could have been replaced by progressive and less-distorting land taxes. Road user charges could have replaced the declining base of fuel excise and the dopey luxury car tax. A carbon emissions trading scheme could have done away with higher cost renewable energy targets.

    With the right political leadership, all this could have been operational now. Instead, Australia is left with a narrow-based tax system that is incapable of raising the revenue demanded of it without distorting incentives so much that the economy can’t deliver the growth in prosperity that voters demand.

  3. Cynicism, that’s all Pegasus has. When she’s not employing sniping, snark or condescension. Not a generous bone in her body towards Labor. And she wonders why ALP members on this blog target her.

  4. Salvation Army:

    https://tendaily.com.au/news/politics/a180522seu/newstart-recipients-on-just-17-a-day-after-housing-costs-salvation-army-says-20180523

    “It is widely acknowledged it will take a minimum increase of $75 a week just to ensure people can live on the poverty line – let alone above it.”

    https://salvos.org.au/about-us/latest-news/media-newsroom/its-time-to-kick-start-newstart/

    The Salvation Army is urging the Federal Government to reconsider its decision not to increase the Newstart allowance after research has revealed the devastating hardship many Australians are facing.

    The 2018 Economic and Social Impact Survey (ESIS), a survey of 1,267 people who call on Salvation Army services, has found the average Newstart recipient is living on just $17.00 a day after accommodation expenses*.

    The survey, released to coincide with the Salvos Red Shield Appeal, included stories of people fighting to survive on a Newstart allowance, which has failed to rise with inflation for 24 years.

  5. P1,

    The people I know at two distribution networks and three different tech providers verified the CEC numbers. The tech providers all do value-adding to PV and PV-battery installs and would know. Just because the CER doesn’t have the numbers doesn’t make it incorrect.

  6. P1,

    The people I know at two distribution networks and three different tech providers verified the CEC numbers. The tech providers all do value-adding to PV and PV-battery installs and would know. Just because the CER doesn’t have the numbers doesn’t make it incorrect.

  7. http://junkee.com/give-kate-nash-credit/157184

    John Howard and a bunch of business leaders have announced that even they think Newstart is too low and should be increased, and wow, how has welfare in this country sunk this low?

    I think Greens senator Jordon Steele-John summed it up when he told the ABC “my god, if John Howard is on board with an increase then Labor should be too.”
    ::::
    ….. the fact that we’ve reached a point where even Howard agrees Newstart is way too low is pretty astonishing.

    On top of that, he’s joined by people like the Business Council of Australia’s Chief Executive, who suggests that maybe we’ve reached a tipping point where the level of Newstart is actually low enough to register as appalling to people who don’t need it.

    Not the government, of course — Scott Morrison refused to raise Newstart in this week’s federal budget — but Bill Shorten said Labour would “contemplate reviewing it”, and the Greens are gearing up to push for a $75-per-week increase. It’s about time.

  8. LU not logged in @ #306 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 5:02 pm

    P1,

    The people I know at two distribution networks and three different tech providers verified the CEC numbers. The tech providers all do value-adding to PV and PV-battery installs and would know. Just because the CER doesn’t have the numbers doesn’t make it incorrect.

    Granted. There is no guarantee it is the CER who are correct. But the CEC ** and CER do agree on the actual numbers of installations. So why do they differ so wildly on the number of batteries? Is there a discrepancy in the way these things are being counted?

    I would just like to see some actual numbers. Not “projections”. Not “forecasts”. Not “estimates”. And certainly not unverifiable numbers from a $4500 “market report” from a single solar company.

    ** Oops! CEC, not CEP.

  9. Yeah, just keep spewing out the cut and paste, Pegasus. That’ll work a treat to engender the change you want.
    Not.

    Now, remind us all, how long did John Howard have to increase Newstart? What did he do about it? Bupkis. But apparently, in your Green eyes, he’s a saint now because he now agrees, conveniently now that he is out of government, that it should be increased. And, of course, just agreeing, absent any further detail, is so much better in your eyes than Labor who want a proper investigation of the proposition carried out first.

    You truly are pathetic, Pegasus.

  10. Just coming back to PB after an excursion to real life, so I don’t know whether the following grenade has already been tossed.

    In view of both Leyonhjelm’s and John Edward’s recent actions, the time has come to ban, criminalise and devalue all private ownership of pistols in Australia.

  11. rhwombat,

    Aint going to happen viz the rise of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party for one thing.

    Gun Control Australia:

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/mar/26/australian-gun-control-advocates-call-for-federal-intervention-as-states-bow-to-firearms-lobby

    Gun control advocates have called for federal intervention – and even a referendum – after commissioning a damning report that shows states and territories have trashed the historic 1996 national firearms agreement.

    The agreement, which led to the surrender and destruction of more than 1.1m firearms, was signed by all states and territories after the Port Arthur massacre, and after threats by then-prime minister John Howard to hold a constitutional referendum on the issue.

    The report by Gun Control Australia (GCA) found more than 50 breaches of the code by states and territories. Each jurisdiction had walked away in some way, the report found.

    GCA is now calling for a referendum to make gun control laws a federal responsibility and to prevent the “wreckage” of the 1996 agreement.

    The organisation’s chair, Sam Lee, said the referendum was needed after “years of political pressure” by the gun lobby.

    “The national firearms agreement is haemorrhaging because the states and territories are legislating it away in return for gun lobby votes and funding,” Lee said.

  12. I was just wondering, out of all the people who contribute to PB, how many have actually offered a homeless person off the street a bed in their house? Or someone whom they knew was going to become homeless due to domestic violence in their home, or a child who was being abused by their parents?

    I have done it about a half a dozen times. I’m not saying it so that I can shower myself in kudos and warm fuzzies, but just by way of trying to exemplify that I believe in walking the walk, as well as talking the talk. I wonder how many of our Greens contributors have done the same?

  13. rhw
    1. Pistol shooting is a legitimate sport.
    2. Most pistol shooters go through their whole lives without shooting anything other than a target, if they can shoot straight.
    3. Some men utter threats, bluster, shove people around, fight, shout in rage, indulge in various forms of road rage and so and so forth.
    4. The latter should automatically be deprived of gun licences for life.
    5. Where a person owns a gun and does any of 3, that person then there should be a new crime: being out of personal control while in control of a deadly weapon – whether that deadly weapon happens to be on them at the time or not.
    6. Given that the vast majority of male murders involve jealousy and rage during separation, divorce and custody battles, deprivation of gun licences should be 100% automatic during those processes.
    7. Female murderers (around one in five of all murderers in Australia) murder their children out of love. They also murder for money. Professionals who come into contact with women during divorce and custody processes should be trained to spot and report women who show any warning signs of fantasizing about murdering their children for the children’s own good. Females who are assessed as being a deadly threat to their children should be separated from their children.
    8. In terms of deterring potential female murderers who murder for money, males might consider being fair and just with money during divorce settlements. Heh, heh.
    9. In terms of psychopaths, the evidence is shakey but a fair summary is that it is genetic but the psychopathy need to be triggered by experiences. Males are somewhere around twice as likely as females to be psychopaths.
    10. The single biggest correlation between male psychopathy and any other factor is domineering mothers.

  14. Mexican election: landslide for the left

    http://adrianbeaumont.net/mexican-election-landslide-for-the-left/

    I’ve written a detailed report on the July 1 Mexican election at my personal website, following my preview for The Poll Bludger.

    The left-wing Presidential candidate, AMLO, won 53.2% of the vote, with his nearest rival on just 22.3%. AMLO’s coalition won majorities in both chambers of the legislature. Although AMLO’s coalition includes an evangelical party, his MORENA party and the Labor party will have a majority of seats in both chambers without needing the evangelical party.

  15. How dumb was Donald to sign up with the Axis of Assholes?

    SEOUL—North Korea is thought to be developing a new submarine capable of launching nuclear-armed ballistic missiles, a senior South Korean lawmaker said, signaling an increased threat to U.S. and allied forces while raising doubts about the regime’s pledges to disarm.

    Evidence gathered by South Korea’s military suggests Pyongyang is working on the submarine on its east coast, said Kim Hack-yong, who chaired the legislature’s defense committee until his term ended a few weeks ago. Kim, who belongs to a conservative opposition party that is skeptical of dialogue with Pyongyang, cited intelligence provided last week by defense officials.

    Satellite imagery reviewed by South Korean intelligence officials showed the movement of laborers and materials at the port of Sinpo, where the submarine appears to be under construction at an indoor facility, an aide to Kim said.

    A Defense Ministry spokesman said he couldn’t comment on details pertaining to intelligence activities but stressed that Seoul and Washington continue to monitor North Korea’s military facilities.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/north-korea-thought-to-be-developing-submarine-that-can-launch-nuclear-weapons-2018-07-06

  16. P1

    I was wondering who would be the first to take a bite!

    I am waiting for BW to supply evidence-based, peer-reviewed research papers to back up his claims.

  17. lizzie
    The more you tell about that deal on solar panels, the more dodgy it sounds. “Strings attached” indeed.
    Recommended installers. Snort!

  18. spr
    Pompeo is about to visit Pyong Yang to finalize ‘the details’ of the Singapore Agreement, that is to say, to start at the beginning, again.
    From the available evidence, the Singapore meeting was taken as a signal by Kim to speed up the development of nuclear weapons as well as nuclear weapon delivery systems.

  19. HSO
    What do you think of an automatic withdrawal of all gun licences from all partners going through separation, divorce or custody battles?

  20. ‘Pegasus says:
    Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 5:55 pm

    Who is going to be the first to exclaim “Quelle horreur!!!!” at the outcome of Mexico’s election?’

    As the Greens know, talk is cheap. Don’t listen to what they say. Watch what they do.

  21. @P1

    The CER/CEC numbers you are talking about are estimates because the installers have (iirc) 12 months to register the install.

  22. ‘Pegasus says:
    Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 5:52 pm
    ‘I am waiting for BW to supply evidence-based, peer-reviewed research papers to back up his claims.’
    I provided the link to the evidence for the correlation between male psychopathy and domineering mothers the other day. It also noted a high correlation between failed relationships with fathers and female psychopaths.
    Note: correlation is not causation.

  23. @ LU

    Like almost all houses in metropolitan Perth mine is double brick.

    I was really surprised when I learned this was not the case in the rest of Australia.

  24. grimace @ #331 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 6:00 pm

    @P1

    The CER/CEC numbers you are talking about are estimates because the installers have (iirc) 12 months to register the install.

    I monitor these numbers regularly. There is only a small correction to be applied as the numbers eventually roll in up to 12 months late. No possible way this could make the difference between 4,500 and 23,000 – especially given that those are 2017 numbers, already 6 months old!

    And, as I keep pointing out – they agree on the number of installs. Why do they disagree on the number of batteries?

  25. ‘Pegasus says:
    Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 6:05 pm
    BW
    “correlation is not causation.”
    Duh. Thanks for the condescension.’

    What would a Greens supporter know about condescension?

  26. Hmm.
    The last case of a woman who tried to kill her baby, and herself, I was involved with was that the woman had become psychotically depressed post partum. Fortunately, her husband noticed and got the CAT team who admitted her. She had a history of severe depression but had been off her medication due to the pregnancy and some ill informed advice.
    If she’d been seen at the hospital in which we ran an ante natal screening programme, this would have been picked up, I’m pretty sure and she would have been properly medicated and monitored, particularly after the birth.
    Predictably, as soon as the LNP got in federally, they axed the program.
    She recovered well, and the baby was thriving last time I saw them.

  27. I am no fan of pistols being legal for individuals, given their concealability and lethality, but I think it unlikely they will be banned. There is however little case for them being able to be kept outside pistol ranges (which would however probably need security upgrades to keep the guns in many cases). Pistol power (calibre and centre-fire versus rim-fire) may be more strictly regulated, given that the pistols in the Sydney case seem to be being called high powered.

    Guns should not be allowed in homes or non-gun related business or social club areas, with a specific serious offence for breaching the ban. This may harder to achieve on farms, given the land the guns are used on often contains the home of the gun user and many farm related gun uses can have unpredictable and gun storage facility accessing hours unfriendly hours.

    I also think that the ban on people who have had AVOs is likely to be justifiably extended. New firearms licences should certainly not be issued to people currently or recently involved in family law proceedings or with child support arrears and steps in this direction may well be taken.

  28. Grimace, I’m surprised to hear it is the case in Perth.

    I’ve got a mind to start a company retrofitting PCM into brick veneers.

  29. PvO on Abbott’s latest tantrum and finding himself with strange bedfellows.

    Why do you think such an eclectic mix of special interest groups and businesses want the NEG passed into law? We aren’t talking about radicals such as the Greens and GetUp!, which oppose the deal. Those in favour of it include the Business Council of Australia, the Minerals Council of Australia, the National Farmers Federation and the Clean Energy Council.

    The NEG isn’t perfect but, if legislated, it will achieve consensus in a policy space that has been divisive for a decade or more. The only players trying to wreck it are radicals on the Right and the Left. The Greens, Abbott, GetUp!, Hanson, the Australian Conservation Council and Cory Bernardi. Isn’t it ironic how much these radicals on the Left and the Right have in common? They loathe one another but have more in common than they care to realise.

    https://outline.com/vp7zfR

  30. I reckon $25 million to get an AFL team up for tassie will be good value for money. The boost to the Tas economy and local footy clubs will be considerable and it is well overdue.

    Would critics of this have a problem with $25 mill going to MONA or arts cultural events in Tas?

    My, and most of my fellow Greens, kids play soccer (my greatest failure are a parent is not being able to convince my kids to stick with aussie rules). It is part of the greens elitism and anti-old australia ‘cultural cringe’ – aussie rules is too rough/blokey and common for them. It’s an inner city/neo-elite class thing. Which is odd considering how footy-mad di Natale is – he played VFL. Shorten is also very genuinely into the game.

  31. Tom
    The tide of gun control in Australia is definitely going out. We now have over 2 million weapons in Australia: more than before Howard’s intervention.
    There is a constant white-anting on all fronts relating to gun control.
    One thing that helps the gunnies is that the majority of Australians have little or no idea about what is happening.
    They still think that Port Arthur defines the state of gun control in Australia.

  32. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-07/david-goodall-memorial/9949884

    In May, he travelled to Switzerland where it is legal to get help to suicide. He used his final days to call for legislative changes that would allow the practice in Australia.”
    :::
    Mr Goodall said he was proud of his grandfather for speaking so candidly about his situation in a bid to drive conversations in the community about euthanasia.
    :::
    A behind-the-scenes look David Goodall’s journey to Switzerland to end his life on his own terms will go to air on the season premier of Foreign Correspondent on Tuesday, July 10 at 8pm on ABC TV and iView.

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