BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. Hugh Brown @ #248 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:51 pm

    Given that, in WA at least, everyone doing this represents peak load, I’d regard any claim that batteryless PV does nothing to reduce peak demand as utter bollocks.

    Peak load does not generally occur during daylight hours, even in summer. It typically occurs sometime between 5pm and 9pm. See https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/how-do-i-use-electricity-throughout-the-day-the-load-curve/

    However, things may be slightly different on very hot days in WA.

  2. I just started to watch “Meet the Polygamists” on SBS and lasted 5 minutes before nausea took over. What is WRONG with America and all the nutters it tolerates?

  3. lizzie @ #245 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    Does this add to the discussion on batteries?

    The latest report includes updated data – such as the 21,000 battery storage systems estimated to have been installed in Australian homes in 2017.

    Not really – if you track that reference down, that was based on a market prediction by – guess who? – SunWiz! Not on actual data.

    I’m beginning to get a bit suspicious 🙁

  4. 7 News Brisbane
    .@TurnbullMalcolm is in brisbane, after hitting the hustings in the marginal north-side seat of Longman for the second time.

    David Marler
    David Marler Retweeted 7 News Brisbane
    #LongmanVotes “Mate, I wouldn’t vote for them (LNP) if my life depended on it,” one woman tells media. Another man didn’t know there was a byelection.

  5. I’m fascinated by those religious cults and had that earmarked as viewing. Shame it isn’t up to scratch.
    __
    It wasn’t that it wasn’t up to scratch. Rather it was the people and their “beliefs” IN it!

  6. Whilst Perth Peak demand does stretch past sunset, it starts in mid afternoon, say 2pm onwards. That’s when, historically, the grid has had difficulty coping, rather than after sundown. If we assume that solar PV systems are delivering useful output until an hour or so before sunset (ours certainly does on anything resembling a sunny day) they are still making a worthwhile dent in peak demand for 3-4 hours. If our houses were more sensibly designed there’d be an ongoing reduction after dark too.
    I’d really like a battery but it would have been roughly 12k on top of the 6k PV system. We just couldn’t afford that up front. What I am considering is the poor man’s alternative of a diverted to use surplus PV to heat a tank of water instead of feeding it back to the grid. It won’t make any difference to our leccy demand because our current HW is gas, but it would reduce our reliance on outside energy sources overall and cut our Lpg use from 6 bottles pa to two, which has to be a good thing.

  7. P1

    I am trying to decide whether to respond to the local council’s Solar Saver program, ” offered exclusively to pensioner households, because most…use the majority of their power during the day when solar panels are producing electricity.” Many Vic councils have offered this, I believe.

    Plus: someone will assess my house to see if it’s suitable for solar.
    Minus: I’m not keen on a “low interest bank loan”.

  8. BK
    If you might be interested in espionage with a sci fi twist, I’d recommend Counterpart on SBS On Demand. Have watched 2 episodes and think an excellent plot and acting.

  9. 12kwh for under $5K is close to the benchmark I’ve set myself to buy a wall battery. Altready have 21 solar panels installed this time last year and have cut our power bill to about a 3rd. Ideally, I’d like ~40 panels, a wall battery, solar blanket for the pool, an EV and then turn off the gas for heating and cooking. I reckon I’ll have all of those ticked off within 5 years.

  10. Pegasus @ #246 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:45 pm

    Labor promises / commits millions to buy the votes of AFL supporters.

    Labor does not promise / can not commit to raising Newstart.

    Priorities.

    Nah. False equivalence.

    Cost to Budget of Tassie AFL team = $25 Million

    Raising Newstart = Billions

    Not that raising the rate of Newstart isn’t a worthy objective but your simplistic jab at Labor is simplistic in the extreme.

    Surely you can do better than that? 🙂

  11. lizzie
    We bought a 3 kilowatt system for $5000 a couple of years ago and are saving at least $800 per year on electricity. It might be worth the exercise of getting the evaluation done as depending on what you’ll be charged for the loan and what size system you can put in, you may still be ahead over time.

  12. There is a report that police were called to a black woman using a private swimming pool somewhere in America. She was the owner of the pool.

    I was going to make some remark or other on racism in US, whne I found this:

    She’s an Aboriginal elder of the stolen generation; he’s a middle aged white male with Celtic roots.

    Aunty Lillian Burke and Sean Connelly, co-chairs of the NAIDOC Committee in Gympie, are preparing for a busy few weeks of cultural observance and celebration.

    It’s a commitment that takes energy, resolve and a good dose of humour when volunteers are hard to find and entrenched social prejudice is at play.

    Sean recalls the time he and Aunty Lillian were followed by police while driving to a meeting, apparently because they looked suspicious. He felt compelled to point out the irony.

    “They were following an Australian of the Year nominee and the winner of a Queensland lifetime volunteering award so how dodgy could we have looked? You can google us!”

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-07/lillian-burke-naidoc-week-womens-work/9943824

  13. BK @ #258 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 1:22 pm

    I’m fascinated by those religious cults and had that earmarked as viewing. Shame it isn’t up to scratch.
    __
    It wasn’t that it wasn’t up to scratch. Rather it was the people and their “beliefs” IN it!

    The ‘beliefs’ is what fascinates me, esp polygamists. It seems anyone can be a (the) prophet, as long as their ego permits them and they have the following.

  14. Harry “Snapper” Organs

    I have been ‘advised’ by friends and relatives that my house is too shaded, and the sun hardly appears over the hill at the back in winter, which is why I am tempted to have the free evaluation.
    🙂

  15. Confessions says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 3:38 pm

    BK @ #258 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 1:22 pm

    I’m fascinated by those religious cults and had that earmarked as viewing. Shame it isn’t up to scratch.
    __
    It wasn’t that it wasn’t up to scratch. Rather it was the people and their “beliefs” IN it!

    The ‘beliefs’ is what fascinates me, esp polygamists. It seems anyone can be a (the) prophet, as long as their ego permits them and they have the following.

    ************************************

    There was the excellent and well rated “Big Love” 5 season tv mini-series of some years ago – A polygamist and his relationship with his three wives.

    ( Bill Paxton, Jeanne Tripplehorn, Chloë Sevigny )

  16. lizzie @ #260 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 3:26 pm

    P1

    I am trying to decide whether to respond to the local council’s Solar Saver program, ” offered exclusively to pensioner households, because most…use the majority of their power during the day when solar panels are producing electricity.” Many Vic councils have offered this, I believe.

    That sounds reasonable.

    Plus: someone will assess my house to see if it’s suitable for solar.
    Minus: I’m not keen on a “low interest bank loan”.

    Do you have to take the loan? Can you not just fork out the money if it’s a good deal?

  17. “Blatant vote buying in Tassie by-election is blatant vote buying.

    Not a good look.”

    It’s an excellent look. Politics 101. But hey. Virtue signalling.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #262 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 3:29 pm

    12kwh for under $5K is close to the benchmark I’ve set myself to buy a wall battery. Altready have 21 solar panels installed this time last year and have cut our power bill to about a 3rd. Ideally, I’d like ~40 panels, a wall battery, solar blanket for the pool, an EV and then turn off the gas for heating and cooking. I reckon I’ll have all of those ticked off within 5 years.

    I did a strawpoll about a year ago here on PB. Turned out there were very few systems of any type installed, even amongst the very vocal solar enthusiasts. And (from memory) only two of those systems included batteries (and one of them was mine!).

    Perhaps it is time for another such strawpoll.

    Who here actually has a solar battery (of any type) installed?

  19. I’d regard any claim that batteryless PV does nothing to reduce peak demand as utter bollocks.

    PV on its own does very little to reduce annual peak load (power), which is the main driver of transmission and distribution network investment. PV does cut dramatically into energy use on most very high load days. Except when it doesn’t, because it’s cloudy or winter and you need more network or peaking capacity, so you shake off a few suburbs in Melbourne or the Tomago aluminium refinery instead.

  20. The champion vote buyer this year is not Turnbull with his $180 billion tax cut to the Big End of Town, inlcluding the banks which would take the single biggest share of the $180 billion.

    Nothing Shorten has done even comes close to that $180 billion.

    Yes, the single biggest 2018 promise comes from Di Natale.
    UBI over forward estimates: over two trillion dollars.
    Now THAT is what I call pork barrelling!

  21. Confessions says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 3:51 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Big Love was one of my favourite shows at the time.

    ************************************************

    You did state a fascination – so I assumed that you had watched it Confessions – still available on eBay for anyone interested – like most US – HBO programs it was a fantastic presentation and not the usual American ‘Days Of Our Lives’ etc trash ….

    Both Bill Paxton and Jeanne Tripplehorn are fantastic actors although Bill died in 2017 at a very young 61 ( not sure if it was because he had 3 wives 🙂 )

  22. I’m not convinced that enabling the establishment of sporting teams is really an appropriate government (of any stripe) responsibility. Given the amount of money in AFL I don’t really see why taxpayers should contribute anything at all.

    But if we’re passing the hat around, I’d quite like a few million so WA can have a proper motor racing venue that’s safe for motorcycles as well as cars and isn’t completely half arsed.

  23. lizzie
    If you do decide to go ahead, ask William for my email as the company who supplied and installed our panels were very good. The panels generate power even on overcast days in the early morning and the installation took only half a day.

  24. Hugh Brown @ #282 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 4:04 pm

    I’m not convinced that enabling the establishment of sporting teams is really an appropriate government (of any stripe) responsibility. Given the amount of money in AFL I don’t really see why taxpayers should contribute anything at all.

    But if we’re passing the hat around, I’d quite like a few million so WA can have a proper motor racing venue that’s safe for motorcycles as well as cars and isn’t completely half arsed.

    You should see the NSW Coalition government then! They are willing to spend over $2 Billion of taxpayers’ hard-earned on rebuilding footy stadiums!

  25. Sorry Peg. But all too often with your mob, the shoe fits. Being snarky over a $25 million plan to give tasmanians a bit of joy to get them through winter because of some other policy that is still a work in progress is a text book definition of virtue signalling.

  26. BK
    If you might be interested in espionage with a sci fi twist, I’d recommend Counterpart on SBS On Demand. Have watched 2 episodes and think an excellent plot and acting.
    ___
    HSO
    I have seen the whole series and enjoyed it very much.

  27. AE

    Projection.

    $25 million spent on the homeless living on the streets , for example, would get them through winter and probably save lives.

  28. BK
    You’re ahead of me then, but given you’re the provider of the much appreciate Dawn Patrol, I’m not surprised. Smiley emoji thingy.

  29. HSO

    The deal includes a recommendation to a “trusted installer” so there are strings attached.
    I shall proceed cautiously!

  30. @Boer-

    “Which reminds us of Captain Hastie of the Chopped Hands Incident.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-11/afghan-files-shed-light-on-notorious-severed-hands-case/8496654

    What nobody seems to have questioned, then or since, is why a soldier under Hastie’s command would just happen to have had a scalpel with him on the battlefield just that once.

    IMO, the notion that this incident was not a war crime because fingerprints of corpses were required is one of the more tortuous acts of explaining legerdemain (pun intended) in the crowded history of war crimes.”

    Two points. Firstly it is unremarkable that an SAS soldier would have a scalpel with him on the battlefield. Given their training to operate independently of support and back up each patrol would have a full surgical kit with them and at least one operator would a trained “Bush surgeon” (one of the four key specialities that each trooper must acquire before becoming a full operator).

    Secondly, it’s hard to criticise Hastie’s role in all of this. The suggestion to severe hands of deceased combatants to identify them was raised in an SAS training exercise conducted with forensic police investigators several weeks before. It seems that the practice was neither ‘green lighted’ or ruled out, but left in the air. As to Hastie’s own knowledge and actions, this is worth remembering that the first officer on the scene was the patrol sergeant who remonstrated with the soldier who had actually severed the hands. Hastie was in a command position at another point on the battle field before being called over.

    From the report:

    “The report states that Captain Hastie, then the commander of Troop B, observed a severed hand “at the site of the EKIA 3” and also asked what was going on.

    When Captain Hastie and the sergeant returned to their base they discussed the incident at length and asked another SAS member to find out if the practice was permitted under Defence rules and regulations.

    Cpt Hastie told his men not to sever any more hands and the next day reported the incident to his commanding officer.”

    One last thing about Hastie. He has been most forthright in his support for the Brereton inquiry into the SAS and has assisted Chris Masters with the Herald’s investigations.

    I have my own problems with Hastie the politician, but not over this incident, or his service record more generally.

  31. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jul/07/nationals-leader-pushes-queensland-lnp-to-back-coalitions-energy-policy

    The Nationals leader and deputy prime minister, Michael McCormack, has issued a subtle warning to the Queensland Liberal National party to fall in line with the government’s proposed energy policy, while leaving the door open for a coal-inclusive future.
    :::
    But speaking to the LNP faithful, who hold 21 of the state’s 30 seats, of which Labor has identified 10 as potential election swingers, McCormack pushed for the party to support the Neg, name-checking two of the Queensland party’s most influential voices, Matt Canavan and David Littleproud, as also being in support.

  32. Andrew_Earlwood says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 4:28 pm

    IMO, the notion that this incident was not a war crime because fingerprints of corpses were required is one of the more tortuous acts of explaining legerdemain (pun intended) in the crowded history of war crimes.”

    *******************************************

    International humanitarian law

    Rule 113. Treatment of the Dead

    Rule 113. Each party to the conflict must take all possible measures to prevent the dead from being despoiled.

    Mutilation of dead bodies is prohibited.

    International humanitarian law (IHL) is the law that regulates the conduct of war (jus in bello). It is that branch of international law which seeks to limit the effects of armed conflict by protecting persons who are not participating in hostilities, and by restricting and regulating the means and methods of warfare available to combatants.

    Serious violations of international humanitarian law are called war crimes

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_humanitarian_law

  33. Pegasus @ #288 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 4:17 pm

    AE

    Projection.

    $25 million spent on the homeless living on the streets , for example, would get them through winter and probably save lives.

    False Equivalence. Again. It appears to be all The Greens have.

    Now, don’t you think, just for a moment, in the real world outside of Greens’ virtue signalling and Labor sniping and snarking, that Labor could, and probably will, do all the things your grubby Green heart desires? Like raise the rate of Newstart, after a properly-constituted inquiry; put into motion, when in government, a policy to help the Homeless, PLUS, enable, at last, an AFL footy team for Tasmania?

    But no, because Labor haven’t announced it already, that gives you all the cause you need, which, admittedly, is never very much, to snipe and snark at Labor here, yet again, today.

    You truly are a pathetic specimen, Pegasus.

    Instead of asking whether Labor have a policy to help the Homeless, which they do, you take the opportunity with both hands to snipe at Labor and not only do federal Labor have a policy, which they need to be in government to carry out, but NSW Labor are forming a policy group with expert stakeholders in the field to explore the issue and formulate fresh detailed policy around the issue. In order to improve on our policy going forward. Hopefully I will be chosen as one of the ALP members that can be a part of this group.

    Compared with what The Greens have got. Homeless, sad face 🙁 Labor Boo! ALP members on PB, snide snark and Boo!

    Yeah, that should solve the problem, Pegasus.

  34. Peggie. Princess Ever Virtuous:

    “AE

    Projection.

    $25 million spent on the homeless living on the streets , for example, would get them through winter and probably save lives.”

    If the Government only had $25 million in the kitty, then I’d agree with you. However, you might be aware that Labor is building a $400 billion war-chest in which to address the issues surrounding inequality root and branch. No?

    Further, instead of your little snarks yesterday and Jenni Mackin, you migh5 even be aare of many of the future directions that Labor will head in on those issues.

    But no. Have a little kick at Labor for daring to win a byelection with a bit of well targeted politicking. I know that in your own small mind that the only acceptable dress for Labor to wear is sackcloth and ashes. The only image to project is morbid concern, but in politics, as in life, projecting a bit of fun and joy also goes a long way.

    $25 million for a Tassie AFL team? Money well spent. Contra the NSWLibs – $2.5 billion in knocking down two empty stadiums to build 2 more on the hope that they can fill them. Now, that’s an outrage. But of course “but Labor” is your only game. Truly pathetic.

  35. Apparently the Greens are going to house all the homeless and cannot understand why everyone is dragging the chain.
    A one bedroom unit per homeless person seems sort of reasonable.
    Let’s say you can get one of these cheaply for around $250,000.
    @ 100,000 homeless.
    There goes another $25 billion…
    …on top the two trillion plus for the UBI.
    Of course if everyone realizes that all you have to do is to start couch surfing to be entitled to a free one bedroom unit…

  36. I’ll say this however. Pending a proper inquiry into welfare payments (hopefully forming part of an overall white paper that also addresses vocational training, underemployment and unemployment) I thing Labor should promise an immediate $15pw increase to Newstart as a sign of good faith.

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