BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. “Then you are not looking very hard.
    This is an old paper, but still quite relevant:”

    I looks a lot like a parliamentary committee document, you know a political document, not so much published scientific research. There are unis, and libraries and journals specially for the real sciency stuff.

  2. Confessions says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 12:30 pm

    phoenixRed:

    Yes Mueller has an impressive number of scalps and would-be scalps. Incidentally I found this recent post at lawfareblog:

    https://www.lawfareblog.com/terrible-arguments-against-constitutionality-mueller-investigation

    ************************************************************

    Thanks Confessions – again it argues many points of US Law that I honestly have limited knowledge but the final paragraph pretty well sums it up – in that Trump/Giuliani are talking out their ass …

    “A final observation: It isn’t very surprising to see the president tweet a meritless legal position, because, as a non-lawyer, he wouldn’t know the difference between a good one and a bad one. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with lawyers making inventive and novel arguments on behalf of their clients, or on behalf of causes or people they support, if the arguments are well-grounded in law and fact, even if the arguments ultimately turn out to be wrong. But the “constitutional” arguments made against the special counsel do not meet that standard and had little more rigor than the tweet that promoted them. Such a lack of rigor, sadly, has been a disturbing trend in much of the politically charged public discourse about the law lately, and one that lawyers—regardless of their politics—owe a duty to abjure.”

  3. I’m much more of a galah than an eagle but if it is a tax question you have a least 25% chance I can steer you in the right direction.

  4. jenauthor @ #198 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 12:30 pm

    Rex:
    “jenathour just gave you all a good lecture on short-termism at 11.35am – take note.”

    Actually Rex, you have it backward – I was demonstrating that long term change can only come about politically by increments that work toward the long term goal

    Yes I misread your post.

    We can argue back and forth on short/long term policy but it matters not if you have destructive rats in the ranks anyway.

  5. WeWantPaul @ #202 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 12:36 pm

    “Then you are not looking very hard.
    This is an old paper, but still quite relevant:”

    I looks a lot like a parliamentary committee document, you know a political document, not so much published scientific research. There are unis, and libraries and journals specially for the real sciency stuff.

    It is becoming hard to take you seriously. I also posted a link from the University of Queensland. Did you not even look at it? Not “sciency” enough for you?

  6. A US historian/commentator interviewed re Dem/Repugs in recent years. Checking out his bio. I saw this quote. Hello Malcolm, Hello Tony, Hello LNP 🙁

    “Frank summarised the thesis of his book ..The Wrecking Crew: How Conservatives Rule as “Bad government is the natural product of rule by those who believe government is bad.”

    according to Thomas Frank in this interview for the French news magazine “L’Obs”. These Democrats want to be the party of a different class : the “creative” or “the winners”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=478&v=4xPCMhwyHy0

  7. WWP – unfortunately it is a contract question – I need to know if you have a legal contract stipulating a particular fee for an ongoing service can the service provider raise that fee without a) notifying the other party or b) renegotiating the contract

  8. There are a whole range of contracts, banks, telcos, etc who do that all the time, and they’ll usually have a framework for it in the contract, I’m not saying it works, just they do it and get away with it. But in any sensible contract you’d not put up with that rubbish.

  9. Trump gave his personal cell number to world leaders without telling aides: ‘We had no idea what happened’

    White House aides were shocked to discover that President Donald Trump gave his personal cell phone number to foreign leaders without their knowledge, reported the Washington Post.

    President Trump’s lack of security efforts has come under scrutiny. Recently, he fell victim to a prank call from comedian John Melendez, and even called him back on his Air Force One line.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/07/trump-gave-personal-cell-number-world-leaders-without-telling-aides-no-idea-happened/

  10. Go with Shellbell, tell him he needs to ‘invest’ the first few hundred hours of his ‘meter’ in the relationship and that you’ll consider an engagement document if he delivers the goods in that first few hundred hours you get for free.

  11. WWP the contract says nothing about the service provider has the ability to change conditions … I know banks and credit cards do it all the time so I checked very thoroughly for a clause saying that. There’s nothing – so logic tells me they cannot do it (they direct debit so it was only months later when we got a full statement have we found out they’ve been charging the higher fee)

  12. Ahead of NATO and Putin summits, Trump’s unorthodox diplomacy rattles allies

    President Trump will land in Europe next week amid fears that he will blow up a key summit focused on Europe’s defense and then offer concessions to NATO’s main adversary, Russian President Vladi­mir Putin.

    The allies’ worries and Moscow’s hopes are rooted in Trump’s combative approach to foreign policy. In recent days, Trump has told senior aides that he wants to slash U.S. spending on Europe’s defense if the allies are unwilling to contribute more to NATO, a senior administration official said.

    Guiding nearly all of Trump’s interactions with world leaders is his belief that his ability to win over, charm and cajole foreign leaders is more important than policy detail or the advancement of strategic goals.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ahead-of-nato-and-putin-summits-trumps-unorthodox-diplomacy-rattles-allies/2018/07/06/16c7aa4e-7006-11e8-bd50-b80389a4e569_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.1bd0ff9ce9b9

  13. Jenauthor

    Where does incrementalism get you.

    25 years on and neither major party has increased Newstart.

    Do its recipients need to wait another year? 2 years? 3 years? 4 years.

    It will eventually be increased only because the years of advocacy by community groups, the Greens Party, and even business lobbies can no longer be ignored.

  14. “There’s nothing – so logic tells me they cannot do it (they direct debit so it was only months later when we got a full statement have we found out they’ve been charging the higher fee)”

    It certainly sounds right the way you put it, just in my personal life anytime I’ve run into something like that they win. There is I think in most states some consumer legal advice body you can get a feel from

  15. You can tell Shellbell is a real lawyer, got the engagement turned the meter on and promptly went to lunch and you wont be able to contact him for 5 weeks.

  16. Jenauthor

    If the contract is fixed price without a variation clause, there is no scope to charge an increased price.

    Take it up with provider and then consumer affairs if not satisfied

  17. Cheers, WWP. We are actually going to mediation at Fair Trading … I am Treasurer of our Strata Plan and the strata management company has been getting up to all kinds of mischief … the contract is just one aspect I’ll be arguing.

  18. Thanks Shellbell – what I was assuming … but the law is an ass, as they say, and sometimes logic doesn’t enter into it!

    Cheers.

  19. the law has a lot of asses in it, not surprising it looks that way

    for the record almost all of the external legal firms that I get work from are excellent and hardly ever go to lunch for 5 weeks …

  20. Now, here’s something odd … perhaps other PB’ers may be able to figure out if I am interpreting this correctly …

    While perusing the Clean Energy Regulator website – as you do 🙂 – I came across figures I had not seen before … the number of batteries installed in conjunction with small solar systems.

    Here is the data: http://www.cleanenergyregulator.gov.au/DocumentAssets/Pages/State-data-for-battery-installations-with-small-scale-systems.aspx

    The thing I don’t understand is that these figures indicate there are a truly miniscule number of solar batteries being installed – about 9,000 in total in the last 5 years. Even though the rate is increasing, batteries are still being installed in less than 1% of all new solar installations. We hear about all these wonderful new battery technologies coming downstream, but the reality is we already have pretty decent (and cheap) batteries – and yet very few people are using them!

    Why is this important? Because it means that very few of these small solar systems are contributing to the reduction in baseload power demand. Basically, it means that they can only generate useful electricity for a small number of hours per day, and these hours are not during peak load periods. Their output can’t be “time shifted” till when it is needed because it is not being stored.

    So any hope that these rooftop systems are going to reduce our reliance on fossil fuel generation is pretty much a myth. All these reports we hear about “renewables now providing XX% of our total electricity” and how “distributed generation is remaking our grid” are – at best – dangerously misleading. Yes, technically the numbers may be correct – but most of our baseload power will continue to be provided by fossil fuels.

    Everyone seems obsessed with solar and battery technology, but the reality is that wind and hydro make a much bigger contribution to actually reducing our need to burn coal, and will continue to do so.

    Or am I missing something?

  21. Solar, battery, wind, hydro all have roles to play.
    Solar is a fantastic solution for house owners and businesses, and its adoption continues.
    Battery are still pretty expensive for alot of cases, but has improved.

    I am not sure why their needs to be a one eyed approach about energy to be honest, all these technologies have a role.

  22. P1,

    You are missing something, or even a few things.

    The current rate of battery installations with PV is about 9% or 1 in 12. There are about 12k installed nationwide. Huge up-tick in the rate over the last year as the price drop through some psychological barriers. Huge drops in cells and BoS coming through in the next 3 years as China joins the party.

    Look up the latest CEC annual report.

  23. Pegasus (AnonBlock)
    Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:56 am
    Comment #176
    jenauthor,

    The Greens Party are often in the forefront of community debate on issues neither major political party regard as priorities or are too scared of making the running on for fear of losing votes to swinging voters in marginal electorates.

    The number of times, PB Labor supporters have said wtte I support its policy but let the the Greens run on this and cop the flak.

    To take a topical issue – harm minimisation drugs policy including safe injecting rooms.

    The Greens Party was vilified for years on its drugs policy by the msm and the political duopoly despite its policy being evidence-based.

    Rofl. 😆

    As Nicko pointed out, the blinkered horse completely failed to mention that it was NSW Labor Premier Bob Carr who okayed the first Harm Minimisation Injecting Room in Kings Cross, despite all manner of federal overlord threats from John Howard and without one iota of input from The Greens.

  24. Player One,
    Anecdotally, and I am probably wrong as this is not an area I am an expert in, I read that there were problems still with the big domestic solar storage batteries in confined spaces like garages of houses. You know, analogous to the problem Samsung had with their phone batteries overheating and kersploding as they tried to put them in thinner and thinner phones.

  25. P1:

    Rooftop solar is a no brainer, as you are well aware, having lots of it yourself.

    But as you also know well, unless you are for whatever reason off the grid, batteries do not make economic sense atm for the average householder.

    When batteries come down below $5000 for 12 kWh, I’ll consider putting a battery in.

  26. LU not logged in @ #231 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:04 pm

    The current rate of battery installations with PV is about 9% or 1 in 12. There are about 12k installed nationwide. Huge up-tick in the rate over the last year as the price drop through some psychological barriers. Huge drops in cells and BoS coming through in the next 3 years as China joins the party.

    Look up the latest CEC annual report.

    Not according to the CER data. Yes, there was an uptick last year, but nowhere near 9%.

    However, I am prepared to accept that the CER data is wrong, because it does seem very low. Can you provide a link to the CEC data?

  27. LU I heard someone say they were expecting a battery rollover to whatever generation comes next, is it gen 2 or gen 3, late this year early next. That we haven’t seen as much as we might want on the supply capacity side nor much price reduction in this gen of batteries but that could / looks likely to change with the next gen. Also something about it not being that battery itself that limits the life expectancy but some other bit of kit that I would have thought (clearly wrongly) could just be changed out.

  28. I’m also assuming / guessing lots of battery supply side is going into EV’s in countries with smarter policies than ours, which is all of them.

  29. don @ #234 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:16 pm

    Rooftop solar is a no brainer, as you are well aware, having lots of it yourself.

    Indeed. Solar with batteries is a no-brainer. But solar without batteries?

    When batteries come down below $5000 for 12 kWh, I’ll consider putting a battery in.

    No you won’t – you’ll then say “When they come down below $2500 …” 🙂

  30. https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/07/07/the-long-fight-safe-injecting-rooms/15308856006516

    Last Saturday, the second medically supervised injecting centre (MSIC) in Australia opened its doors in Melbourne’s North Richmond. It was a long time coming. Nearly two decades ago, I met with a group of nurses, doctors, drug users and their parents in the basement of the Wayside Chapel in Sydney to launch the “Tolerance Room” – a safe injecting space, and small act of civil disobedience, that we hoped would push the then premier, Bob Carr, forward on opening the country’s first MSIC in Kings Cross. This was the height of Australia’s heroin epidemic, 1999, a year when about 1116 people would die from heroin overdoses – many of them in the Cross. We felt the risk of prosecution was worth it if we could slow the rate of people – particularly young people – dying all around us.
    :::
    The opening of Australia’s second MSIC marks the end of more than two decades of relentless struggle and advocacy. To trace its origins, you need to go back even before the Tolerance Room, through the work of countless people.
    ::::
    And a Melbourne MSIC came awfully close to getting across the line when Steve Bracks unexpectedly won the Victorian state elections in 1999, after promising to establish five centres in Melbourne. But in government Bracks abandoned his commitment in the face of vociferous local opposition. About the same time, the ACT government also dropped a commitment to open a MSIC in Canberra.
    :::
    But in the decades since, as almost 100 MSICs have been opened around the world, Australia has dragged its feet. In 1997, the Howard government rejected a trial of prescription heroin, after six years of internationally significant scientific research. It marked a shift towards using the criminal justice system – rather than the health system – to try to deal with drug use.

    That was the same year Justice James Wood found pervasive corruption linked to illicit drugs, especially in Kings Cross, during the New South Wales royal commission into police corruption. “It is fanciful to think that drug addicts can be prevented from obtaining and using prohibited drugs,” he declared, recommending government consideration of an MSIC in Sydney. The parliamentary committee established by the Carr government to investigate the issue approved a very positive report only to, mysteriously, vote against it.
    :::
    Meanwhile advocates were still risking jail time by running the Tolerance Room.
    :::
    Things came to a head at the 1999 Drug Summit, an event that sought to tackle the growing issue of illicit drugs in NSW, where a majority of politicians from around the state voted for an MSIC. At this time, Kings Cross had the highest concentration of heroin deaths in the country.
    :::
    Another two years passed before the Sydney MSIC finally opened in May 2001, under the Uniting Church, with Dr Ingrid van Beek as its foundation director. It has been a spectacular success. Almost a dozen major evaluations have been carried out, all with extremely positive findings. In fact, it was a Liberal state government that removed the centre’s temporary status.

  31. C@tmomma @ #233 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:09 pm

    Player One,
    Anecdotally, and I am probably wrong as this is not an area I am an expert in, I read that there were problems still with the big domestic solar storage batteries in confined spaces like garages of houses. You know, analogous to the problem Samsung had with their phone batteries overheating and kersploding as they tried to put them in thinner and thinner phones.

    Yes, you are best advised to install them away from your house, and certainly not in a garage or other confined space. Perhaps this really is deterring some people.

  32. May 2009: https://blogs.crikey.com.au/croakey/2009/05/21/alex-wodak-the-tolerance-room-ten-years-later/

    In 1997, Justice James Wood published the report of his Royal Commission into the New South Wales Police Service. In response to Wood’s recommendation, the NSW Parliament established a Select Committee to estimate the costs and benefits of a trial of a safe and sanitary injecting room and recommend whether or not such a trial should proceed. Although the enquiry identified many benefits and few risks, a majority of the committee voted against a trial.

    A diverse group then started meeting in the Wayside Chapel, Kings Cross, committed to establishing an injecting centre to encourage NSW authorities to reconsider the question. In January 1999, the NSW Premier, Bob Carr, announced that he would convene a Drug Summit after the next state election but that the question of an injecting centre would not be included in the agenda. The Wayside Chapel group decided to accelerate their plans and establish before the Summit an injecting centre, called ‘the Tolerance Room’. We hoped that this would result in the question of an injecting centre trial being included in the agenda of the Drug Summit.
    :::
    At the Drug Summit, the question of a trial of a legal injecting centre was regarded by many as a pivotal matter. Premier Carr gave a statesman like address. Arguments flowed back and forth. Support for establishing an injecting centre trial grew. Parliamentarians were allowed to vote according to their conscience. A majority of votes supported the establishment of an injecting centre trial including some Coalition politicians.
    :::
    More than eight years after the medically supervised injecting centre finally opened in May 2001, the NSW government still requires that it remains a research project, notwithstanding numerous reports demonstrating significant benefits and cost effectiveness and despite the lack of evidence of significant adverse consequences.

  33. Zoidlord says:
    Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 2:18 pm
    @Don

    Yup.

    Telsa batteries is like $12K atm.

    ____________________

    Yes, I have priced them!

    You would hope that a 50% drop is achievable with the present improvements in technology and economies of scale within a couple of years.

    Solar panels have come down much faster in price.

  34. Does this add to the discussion on batteries?

    Finkel’s new report Taking Charge: The Energy Storage Opportunity for Australia is a 9-page summary and update of a detailed report on energy storage by the Australian Council of Learned Academies (ACOLA) released in November 2017.
    Readers may remember that report highlighted how little additional storage was needed – even with up to 35 per cent to 50 per cent wind and solar in the system, but also how critical it would be to a modern, decarbonised grid. Its conclusions were immediately attacked by conservatives as “eco-evangelism”.
    The latest report includes updated data – such as the 21,000 battery storage systems estimated to have been installed in Australian homes in 2017.

    It noted that batteries are modular and can be initially installed as small units then scaled up as needs and funds arise.
    “Further, they can be installed close to where they are needed, making the transmission costs either small or non-existent. In some cases, batteries can save investment costs by avoiding the need to upgrade distribution lines in cities,” it noted.

    https://reneweconomy.com.au/finkel-says-australia-can-and-should-be-world-leader-in-energy-storage-91277/

  35. Labor promises / commits millions to buy the votes of AFL supporters.

    Labor does not promise / can not commit to raising Newstart.

    Priorities.

  36. (Don) When batteries come down below $5000 for 12 kWh, I’ll consider putting a battery in.

    ________
    P1:
    No you won’t – you’ll then say “When they come down below $2500 …”

    _________

    Glad to hear you can read minds. You could make a motza out of that ability.

    Unfortunately your readings are wrong, which brings down their value somewhat.

  37. I’ve just had a (ridiculously oversized I suspect) solar PV system installed chez Brown. No battery I’m afraid as we couldn’t stretch to current prices. However, what it will allow us to do, come summer, is run an air con at full chat during the hottest part of the day without drawing from the grid. Given that, in WA at least, everyone doing this represents peak load, I’d regard any claim that batteryless PV does nothing to reduce peak demand as utter bollocks.

  38. Player One @ #236 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:29 pm

    LU not logged in @ #231 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 2:04 pm

    The current rate of battery installations with PV is about 9% or 1 in 12. There are about 12k installed nationwide. Huge up-tick in the rate over the last year as the price drop through some psychological barriers. Huge drops in cells and BoS coming through in the next 3 years as China joins the party.

    Look up the latest CEC annual report.

    Not according to the CER data. Yes, there was an uptick last year, but nowhere near 9%.

    However, I am prepared to accept that the CER data is wrong, because it does seem very low. Can you provide a link to the CEC data?

    Further to my previous post, there is something seriously wrong here. The CEC and CER data matches in terms of the total number of solar systems installed in 2017 – 172,000 – but differ dramatically in the number of batteries installed along with them – 4,500 according to the CER, 23,000 according to the CEC.

    One of them is clearly wrong. But which?

    Unfortunately, the CER data is public, but the CEC data is based on a commercial report from a single solar company (SunWiz) and you have to pay for the report 🙁

  39. For those worried about the combustibility of the various lithium technologies you can always install one of Redflows zinc bromine batteries. It’s Australian owned & developed, and the electrolyte won’t burn even if you took to it with an oxy.

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