BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor

Two new polls for the week cancel out the slight gain Labor made in last week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate.

After recording a slight spike to Labor last week on the back of the Ipsos result, the latest results from Newspoll and Essential Research have brought the BludgerTrack two-party trend reading to about where it was before. This has happened without any changes in the seat projection, in any seat. Newspoll and Essential also both provided leadership ratings, which cause Malcolm Turnbull’s net approval result to improve a little, and Bill Shorten’s to worsen a little. This will be an off week for both the regularly reporting pollsters, but Sky News may step into the breach with a ReachTEL on Sunday morning. We’re also due for Newspoll’s quarterly poll state and demographic breakdowns. Full results from BludgerTrack by clicking on the following:

Preselection news:

• A preselection for the Queensland Liberal National Party Senate ticket has dumped incumbents Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan in favour of Paul Scarr, described by Jared Owens of The Australian as a “low-profile mining executive”, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and member of a Queensland grazing dynasty. The third position goes to Gerard Rennick, a finance executive. Macdonald will have to make do with number four, which was last productive in the freak result of 2004 than delivered the Howard government a Senate majority during its final term. Also frozen out was Scott Emerson, the former minister in Campbell Newman’s government who lost the seat of Maiwar to the Greens in the state election last November.

• The first of two retirement announcements this week from federal Labor MPs in Victoria was that of Michael Danby, who has held Melbourne Ports since 1998. Danby insists the decision was wholly his own choice, which reflects suggestions his pro-Israel outlook may have been contributing to the pressure Labor has increasingly faced in the inner city electorate from the Greens. Three names that have long been mooted as potential successors for Labor preselectionn are Josh Burns, an adviser to Daniel Andrews and former staffer to Danby; Mary Delahunty, a Glen Eira councillor and former mayor (not to be confused with the former state member for Northcote); and Nick Dyrenfurth, executive director of the John Curtin Research Centre. The latter reportedly ruled himself out in February, but has been rated a potential starter in media reports following Danby’s announcement.

• The second was that of Jenny Macklin, who had held Jagajaga since 1996. According to Noel Towell of The Age, the vacancy could finally provide Labor with a solution to its dilemma of how to accommodate Jane Garrett, who refuses to defend her existing state seat of Brunswick from the ever-rising threat of the Greens, and was rebuffed in her bid for a berth in the state upper house. It was earlier suggested that Garrett might get the safe Labor federal seat that was predictably produced by the recently finalised redistribution, but Bill Shorten is now considering taking it instead, as it takes much of his existing seat of Maribyrnong. The redrawn Maribyrnong is perhaps not of interest to Garrett because, as Fairfax recently reported, it was “tipped to turn marginal in the coming years”, although I have my doubts about that personally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

887 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.3-47.7 to Labor”

  1. WeWantPaul @ #133 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:14 am

    Sorry I was talking in a context and clearly it was too intricate a context for it to be nearly as obvious as i thought it was. So I apologise let me try to frame it more precisely to reduce both your confusion and the stupid things you are wrongly inferring.

    I guess that’s as close as I am ever going to get to an apology, so accepted 🙂

    In the context of Australia and the existing global refugee framework, and the global situation as we now find it, wars and location of wars wise, the finite limits of this planet nor the finite limits on Australia as part of the planet, are not even remotely relevant to a decision on whether we honour our obligation to a genuine refugee that arrives in Australia and claims their refuge, or whether we dishonour ourselves and fail to meet our obligations.

    This is precisely why neither Labor nor the Greens can ever seem to come up with a sensible refugee or migration policy. Which was my original point. The idea that Australia can expand its carrying capacity indefinitely, when by many credible estimates we have already exceeded it, is clearly ridiculous – as is any policy position predicated on such nonsense.

    Having said that any of the existing science applied to the general question of a global carrying capacity and the assumptions one has to make and the focus one chooses to take in that undertaking is well problematic. When you factor in abundant extra ordinarily cheap clean renewable power, and hence abundant cheap clean desalinated water, your limits perhaps expand a little.

    And clearly, the many scientists working in this field will never have thought of such things 🙂

  2. Confessions says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 11:17 am

    I’ve maintained all along Trump won’t be questioned by Mueller. But if Trump doesn’t have anything to hide, then why not get it over and done with? This prevarication bears all the hallmarks of someone with a large guilty secret.

    ******************************************************

    I am sure when Robert Mueller IS READY – he will hand out indictments/subpoenas like confetti and they will be answering his questions in a court room and not his office

  3. Rex:

    The govt of the day negotiated legislation through parliament.

    And that’s precisely the problem with the Greens, as jenauthor pointed out: my way or the highway is a rather Hansonesque approach to legislating. The Greens struck lucky with Gillard’s carbon price. But more often than not, a my way or the highway attitude sees you dealt out of the main game. Something that has happened to the Greens many times in the past.

  4. jenauthor says:
    Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 10:07 am
    That’s the dilemma, isn’t it WWP.

    In the current climate advocating compassion doesn’t win enough votes.

    The secret racists/bigots/etc can vote anonymously at elections … and they do, despite anything they might say out loud to the contrary.

    That was the deliberate wedge that Howard inflicted the country with and it stands today just as much.

    It is sad because progressive politicians are forced to speak expediently and hope they will be able to act differently when in power. Labor has always suffered from the weight of this yoke … not just on asylum seekers but also strong action on climate change/stance on coal … there’s a list

    The question is, what can we do to get that simple truth through Rex’s thick head, with his Lib-Lab nonsense. Probably nothing.

    Like Andrew Bolt in relation to climate change, who insists that nothing has changed over the last twenty years, when the evidence is all around us that it has, Rex will just go on believing what he wants to believe about Bill Shorten and the Labor party. Pathetic really.

  5. Lovey @ #144 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:18 am

    Are you talking about the carrying capacity of the earth or just Australia?

    Either one.

    The problem is not absolute numbers of people but their lifestyles.

    The two are related. Clearly, the more people who enjoy enhanced lifestyles here in Australia, the less there is left for the poor sods who have to live elsewhere 🙁

  6. phoenixRed:

    What do you make of the argument that the Mueller probe is unconstitutional? There seem to be an increasing number of people claiming this, and not just Trumpists either.

  7. “endless economic growth and lifestyles – the elephants in the room”

    I know you aren’t saying I did, but I want to be clear I am not in the endless economic growth club.

    In fact I think we measure and try to grow many of the wrong things. Much of the stuff economists look at, imho, is the wrong stuff. Most of the refugee we are full rubbish comes from incorrect views that refugees take part of the existing pie from you and you never get it back. It is a bit like standing beside a Sydney harbour full of fresh water and killing someone in a fight over a glass of water.

  8. WeWantPaul @ #149 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:25 am

    But back to the refugee context none of these realities or beautifully constructed logic, in the Australian context converts ‘fuck off we are full’ from a stupid racist chant to scientific logic.

    In your attempt to simplify this debate to ridiculous and insulting levels, you are making a fundamental error. Our natural birth rate is below replacement level, as is true of most advanced economies – so we will never be naturally “full”. We will always need migration.

    The issue is whether we base our migration policies on science, or on bullshit.

  9. P1

    we will never be naturally “full”. We will always need migration.

    Are you writing from the point of view of an economist, or an environmentalist?

  10. Peg … 5 years have passed since ALP had climate change action, for instance. And we are worse off, because what gains were undone.

    On asylum seekers, the fast option was brought in by Rudd … remember? And where did that get us?

    Time targets are always helpful as goals, but incremental change generally lasts, while monumental change often creates shocks that in politics tend to get reversed. AS WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE CURRENT GOVT.

    It’d be helpful all around if some you guys turned up at Greens meetings and suggest that your policy goals should be allowed to develop over time, so they can be cemented/embedded rather than these ping/pong shock tactics that ultimately achieve nothing

  11. “The idea that Australia can expand its carrying capacity indefinitely, when by many credible estimates we have already exceeded it, is clearly ridiculous – as is any policy position predicated on such nonsense.”

    You do know Australia, kind of its shape and size? You are aware most of the population is in less than twenty little circles on a map?

    Lets play though, lets assume these very credible estimates that conclude an extraordinarily large continent with a tiny population is already over its carrying capacity. I’d be curious what those scientists would say the carrying capacity of Singapore is, or China, or Europe, but I’m thinking they would be concluding that the world is already massively seriously overpopulated.

    If these things are true than we should be massively investing in military because we are going to need a lot of it and we are going to need it pretty soon.

  12. Good morning all,

    I have been thinking about the GST announcement by Morrison and I am even more convinced that ,in its haste to stop the bleeding in WA ,the government has offered a huge opportunity to labor. The timing of the announcement just prior to the by elections is also very fortunate for labor.

    Re the ” meat and potatoes ” of the GST fix put forward, Morrison has made it clear that the budget will carry the extra $7 billion with little strain. First mistake. Labor has billions ready to go on top of any improved budget position so Morrison will find it very hard to argue “where is the money coming from ” if labor sees the Morrison $7 billion and raises another $7 to $ 10 billion over ten years. If Morrison then decides to add more as a counter move he is the one who will be flying with his pants down.

    At the moment federal labor and labor state and territory governments will be going through the detail line by line and Bowen and Chalmers will be just a phone call away from treasurers in WA, Queensland, NT and the ACT. I am sure that Bowen will be keen to hear of any anomalies that arise from this scrutiny especially if hidden in the small print are even the slightest hint of the states being shortchanged over future health ,education etc spending as a result of this largeness.

    Morrison, Turnbull and the MSM have decreed that this model is the best thing since sliced bread. If labor supports the basic framework but adds in more detail and certainty re funding ( ie legislation setting out a definite floor amount for each state and territory perhaps even up to 75 – 80 cents ) and throwing in another $8 or $10 billion over the 10 years then what can Morrison do ?

    Legislate as well for the money to be available solely for infrastructure projects, perhaps in a defined ” fund ” and thus completely separate from Heath and education and then call on Morrison to do the same and match the funding. If Morrison refuses then the question arises as to why will not the government give the states certainty and legislate. What are they afraid off ?

    “Where is the money coming from ” will be a government certain line of attack. The money is coming from hard decisions labor had already made with neg gearing etc. it is also because labor is concentrating on tax relief for small and medium income earners and companies over the upper end. It is because labor is not giving $17 billion to the banks. It is about choices. Etc etc.

    Morrison has given labor a platform and even cover to produce its own largeness in response and just in time for the by elections.

    We shall see.

    Cheers

  13. lynlinking

    @lynlinking
    5m

    Turnbull ramps up byelection cash pledges The federal government has pledged funds for young Aboriginal Australians in Queensland, hopeful of winning the impending Longman byelection

  14. Confessions says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 11:30 am

    phoenixRed:

    What do you make of the argument that the Mueller probe is unconstitutional? There seem to be an increasing number of people claiming this, and not just Trumpists either.

    *************************************************

    Like many things related to Trump Vs The US Law – there are so many legal opinions over what can be / can’t be done – constitutional/unconstitutional …..

    I just logged your question, Confessions, into google and there is a myriad of legal opinions and I honestly don’t have the legal knowledge of US laws to know who is right

    eg – here is a Time article – President Trump Is Wrong. The Mueller Probe Is Constitutional

    http://time.com/5304214/mueller-probe-constitutional/

    but I can easily find the opposite …… I guess until it is tested in a US court we will not know – but I guess it could drag on and on over legal correctness … or unless there is some killer blow but past instances of US law eg Manson Family , O J Simpson Michael Jackson etc etc ….. are ones that are still argued over ….

  15. “The issue is whether we base our migration policies on science, or on bullshit.”

    Yeah I think the science needs work and its application even more work. In the meantime perhaps we could just be decent human beings and not murder and torture refugees in offshore detention camps because a massive continent with a tiny population might already have too many people.

    My apologies if my characterisation of your ‘opps carrying capacity reached shut the doors’ logic strikes you as an “attempt to simplify this debate to ridiculous and insulting levels”. Seems pretty fair and logical to me.

  16. WWP

    If the globe is filled to capacity with humans, from whence will they import their food?
    If the waters are filled with excrement, what will they drink?

  17. WeWantPaul @ #163 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:41 am

    You do know Australia, kind of its shape and size? You are aware most of the population is in less than twenty little circles on a map?

    Which has very little – if anything- to do with the carrying capacity of the continent.

    Lets play though, lets assume these very credible estimates that conclude an extraordinarily large continent with a tiny population is already over its carrying capacity.

    The do. Either over it or very near it.

    I’d be curious what those scientists would say the carrying capacity of Singapore is, or China, or Europe, but I’m thinking they would be concluding that the world is already massively seriously overpopulated.

    Clearly, Singapore is way over it’s natural carrying capacity. Singapore is not self-sufficient in either food or raw materials, and without imports would soon collapse. China and Europe may be either over or under – offhand, I’d say China is probably over and Europe is probably under.

    If these things are true than we should be massively investing in military because we are going to need a lot of it and we are going to need it pretty soon.

    No need. We are already selling off the arable parts of Australia as fast as we can. Ditto for mineral rights. Nobody would want the useless bits that are left. 🙁

  18. doyley @ #164 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:43 am

    Good morning all,

    I have been thinking about the GST announcement by Morrison and I am even more convinced that ,in its haste to stop the bleeding in WA ,the government has offered a huge opportunity to labor. The timing of the announcement just prior to the by elections is also very fortunate for labor.

    Re the ” meat and potatoes ” of the GST fix put forward, Morrison has made it clear that the budget will carry the extra $7 billion with little strain. First mistake. Labor has billions ready to go on top of any improved budget position so Morrison will find it very hard to argue “where is the money coming from ” if labor sees the Morrison $7 billion and raises another $7 to $ 10 billion over ten years. If Morrison then decides to add more as a counter move he is the one who will be flying with his pants down.

    At the moment federal labor and labor state and territory governments will be going through the detail line by line and Bowen and Chalmers will be just a phone call away from treasurers in WA, Queensland, NT and the ACT. I am sure that Bowen will be keen to hear of any anomalies that arise from this scrutiny especially if hidden in the small print are even the slightest hint of the states being shortchanged over future health ,education etc spending as a result of this largeness.

    Morrison, Turnbull and the MSM have decreed that this model is the best thing since sliced bread. If labor supports the basic framework but adds in more detail and certainty re funding ( ie legislation setting out a definite floor amount for each state and territory perhaps even up to 75 – 80 cents ) and throwing in another $8 or $10 billion over the 10 years then what can Morrison do ?

    Legislate as well for the money to be available solely for infrastructure projects, perhaps in a defined ” fund ” and thus completely separate from Heath and education and then call on Morrison to do the same and match the funding. If Morrison refuses then the question arises as to why will not the government give the states certainty and legislate. What are they afraid off ?

    “Where is the money coming from ” will be a government certain line of attack. The money is coming from hard decisions labor had already made with neg gearing etc. it is also because labor is concentrating on tax relief for small and medium income earners and companies over the upper end. It is because labor is not giving $17 billion to the banks. It is about choices. Etc etc.

    Morrison has given labor a platform and even cover to produce its own largeness in response and just in time for the by elections.

    We shall see.

    Cheers

    You’d first want to consider that Labor has a friendly senate to get all it’s ‘reform’ through to pay for its ‘GST fix’.

  19. phoenixRed:

    Thanks for that. The longer term issue is if the investigation’s validity is found to be unconstitutional then that means that the charges / convictions bestowed on the crooks can be dropped or overturned.

    The argument seems to be that only Congress can appoint such investigations, not the DoJ. However you’re right that it probably does need to be tested in court.

  20. Thanks bk, you are fantastic.

    From one of your links:

    _______________

    In Mediterranean Europe, North Africa and the Middle East, FIFA has leased its property to a fragmentary flotilla of ambitious but often obscure pay-television networks. They are not available in most homes or hotel rooms, even at the high end. In the places where I have been trawling, in increasing desperation, for a goddamn TV set showing a goddamn football game – what could be easier? – the outcomes have fallen into three types.

    ____________________

    Sad to hear that. The World Cup matches are freely available in German budget hotel rooms atm, and well worth watching.

  21. WeWantPaul @ #167 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:47 am

    “The issue is whether we base our migration policies on science, or on bullshit.”

    Yeah I think the science needs work and its application even more work. In the meantime perhaps we could just be decent human beings and not murder and torture refugees in offshore detention camps because a massive continent with a tiny population might already have too many people.

    We can have as many refugees as you want. Just reduce the other migration programs by the same number. Fair?

    My apologies if my characterisation of your ‘opps carrying capacity reached shut the doors’ logic strikes you as an “attempt to simplify this debate to ridiculous and insulting levels”.

    Again, apology accepted.

    Seems pretty fair and logical to me.

    Which of course is the problem 🙁

  22. jenauthor,

    The Greens Party are often in the forefront of community debate on issues neither major political party regard as priorities or are too scared of making the running on for fear of losing votes to swinging voters in marginal electorates.

    The number of times, PB Labor supporters have said wtte I support its policy but let the the Greens run on this and cop the flak.

    To take a topical issue – harm minimisation drugs policy including safe injecting rooms.

    The Greens Party was vilified for years on its drugs policy by the msm and the political duopoly despite its policy being evidence-based.

    Look where we are now.

    Safe injecting room in Richmond:
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/12-lives-saved-in-richmond-safe-drug-injecting-room-s-first-week-20180706-p4zpy4.html

    Medically supervised injecting centres (MSICs):

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2018/07/07/the-long-fight-safe-injecting-rooms/15308856006516

    The next year came another premature death, this time to cancer of Fiona Richardson, a well-regarded state Labor politician, which prompted a byelection for the inner-city seat of Northcote. A fierce battle between the ALP and the Greens erupted. When elected in 2014, the Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, had vowed to stick strictly to his election commitments – in stark contrast to the then prime minister Tony Abbott – but unfortunately this included a promise to not establish an MSIC during his first term of government.

    Undeterred, supporters of a Melbourne MSIC continued their advocacy and recruitment. Enough was enough. Surely an election promise could be reconsidered in the face of so many deaths? Three years later, in October 2017, Andrews announced that his government would establish a two-year trial of an MSIC in North Richmond. A “backflip”, according to the media. Many wondered whether this decision had mostly been prompted by the effort to retain Northcote, rather than by the growing body of evidence that MSICs help keep communities and drug users safe. At the byelection, the Greens ending up winning the seat from Labor anyway.

  23. Player One @ #177 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:57 am

    Rex Douglas @ #172 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:53 am

    lizzie @ #168 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 11:49 am

    WWP

    If the globe is filled to capacity with humans, from whence will they import their food?
    If the waters are filled with excrement, what will they drink?

    Let’s not rule out advancement in human sustainability techniques.

    “Magic Happens”, eh Rex?

    That’s probably what conservatives said back in the 10th century.

  24. Rex,

    Who gives a rats arse atm what the next senate will look like.

    Labor has produced its policies, costed its policies and committed to its policies and will take its policies to the next election.

    You seem to be saying a political party should only announce policy if it thinks it has a chance of forming government with a dominant senate. Otherwise , forget it.

    If that is the case then the greens may as well fold up in the corner with their pie in the sky policies they have no chance of enacting and singing kumbia.

    Cheers.

  25. OC
    I got ‘the image could not be displayed because it contains errors’ message.
    But I remain on the alert, ready to be disturbed by whatever it is.

  26. doyley @ #180 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    Rex,

    Who gives a rats arse atm what the next senate will look like.

    Labor has produced its policies, costed its policies and committed to its policies and will take its policies to the next election.

    You seem to be saying a political party should only announce policy if it thinks it has a chance of forming government with a dominant senate. Otherwise , forget it.

    If that is the case then the greens may as well fold up in the corner with their pie in the sky policies they have no chance of enacting and singing kumbia.

    Cheers.

    jenathour just gave you all a good lecture on short-termism at 11.35am – take note.

  27. I’m game, what is just one of these highly credible peer reviewed scientific papers that concludes Australia’s carry capacity has been reached or is very close and I’ll give it a read.

    My quick google review of the area suggests it is a very fertile political field, but I’m not seeing a lot of science at all.

  28. Boerwar

    Always keep your outrage handy, you never know when you’ll need it. 😉

    (For those who have no humerus, this was a joke.)

  29. “Let’s not rule out advancement in human sustainability techniques.”

    And lets not rule out the chance we mess it up and cull each other, both things happen.

  30. Confessions @ #187 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 12:05 pm

    Rex Douglas @ #179 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 9:59 am

    It’s high time we see the law reflect the views of the people #justlegaliseit https://t.co/K5zf3ckU9L— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) July 7, 2018

    The public generally supports mandatory sentencing as well, however it has proved to be disastrous on many fronts.

    These kinds of populist statements are just silly.

    The comment was linked to legalising cannabis, but you seem to have taken it in isolation.

  31. Decriminalisation of drug use and possession in Australia : a briefing note. 2017 (8 p.) by the National Drug & Alcohol Research Centre.

    https://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/lrrcsc/Drugs_/Submissions/164_2017.03.17_-_NDARC_-_submission_-_appendix_a.pdf

    1. Decriminalisation does not mean legalisation: decriminalisation
    removes criminal penalties for use/possession either by law (de jure) or by
    practice (de facto).

    2. There is strong public support in Australia for decriminalisation
    approaches.

    3. The research evidence indicates that decriminalisation of drug use:
     Reduces the costs to society, especially the criminal justice system
    costs
     Reduces social costs to individuals, including improving employment
    prospects
     Does not increase drug use
     Does not increase other crime
     May, in some forms, increase the numbers of people who have
    contact with the criminal justice system (net widening)

    4. Many countries around the world have decriminalised drug use and
    possession in various ways.

    5. Australia currently has a mixture of de jure and de facto
    decriminalisation schemes for use and possession of illicit drugs: but
    decriminalisation is not universal. Accordingly, many people continue to be
    sent to court for possession of only minor quantities of drugs.

    6. There is an opportunity to expand decriminalisation for drug use in
    Australia, particularly through de jure decriminalisation schemes targeting all
    illicit drugs. This may further reduce costs to the criminal justice system and to
    individuals.

    Once again, the Greens Pary supports evidence-based policies.

  32. Peg

    Perhaps you haven’t noticed that the LNP never accept evidence. They prefer gut feelings, but will agree to anything if it will win them a few votes in marginal seats.

  33. WeWantPaul @ #184 Saturday, July 7th, 2018 – 12:04 pm

    I’m game, what is just one of these highly credible peer reviewed scientific papers that concludes Australia’s carry capacity has been reached or is very close and I’ll give it a read.

    My quick google review of the area suggests it is a very fertile political field, but I’m not seeing a lot of science at all.

    Then you are not looking very hard.

    This is an old paper, but still quite relevant:

    https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=reports/1994/1994_pp457.pdf

    I’ve posted this one before, but it’s a good place to start:

    http://dashboard.carryingcapacity.com.au/

  34. Confessions says: Saturday, July 7, 2018 at 11:52 am

    phoenixRed:

    The argument seems to be that only Congress can appoint such investigations, not the DoJ. However you’re right that it probably does need to be tested in court.

    ****************************************

    Well Robert Mueller already so far, – has five convictions, 15 individual indictments and 3 corporate indictments to its credit.- and that is just for starters

    Paul Manafort is already banged up in solitary confinement and awaiting his trial(s) later this month so it is happening legally so it is hardly a “witch hunt” without substance and legal repercussions

  35. The comment was linked to legalising cannabis, but you seem to have taken it in isolation.

    Probably because it’s very easy to read in isolation.

  36. I’ve just had a torturous week of corporate continuous improvement training. It was horrible. There is one quote from that training that I picked up and note that the Greens need very, very badly to heed:

    Continuous improvement is better than delayed perfection.

  37. Peg
    “The number of times, PB Labor supporters have said wtte I support its policy but let the the Greens run on this and cop the flak.”

    I said nothing of the sort.

    I said I support the ideals but the speed with which Greens demand change is not practical and Greens members need to understand that.

    I said nothing about safe injecting rooms and have no opinion because I know nothing about that subject — which I guess you have thrown in as a distraction from the argument I was making.

  38. Rex:
    “jenathour just gave you all a good lecture on short-termism at 11.35am – take note.”

    Actually Rex, you have it backward – I was demonstrating that long term change can only come about politically by increments that work toward the long term goal

  39. I’m going to go against the flow and predict big wins for Labor in Longman and Braddon.

    It would be consistent with by-election history and current overall TPP polling position. Labor have also been running an enormous field campaign, something we know the L/NP have great difficulty countering.

    I think the by-elections do have something of a silver lining for Labor, it’s a trial run for their field campaign going into an election year, they’ll iron out kinks and will have refreshed volunteer databases.

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