We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:
• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.
• Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.
• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.
• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.
• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.
Steve777 @ #1249 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 10:40 pm
You sound like a ‘recovered Catholic’.
I read an interesting book if you want to know a lot about the history of the Church.
‘The Rise and Decline of the Christian Empire’ by Ian Guthridge.
The author was a priest and studied at the Gregorian University. Headed for bigger things.
Then he married a former nun, had a family and led a life.
a r: Buddhists too have been responsible for some pretty terrible sectarian violence, I wouldn’t let them off.
bemused @ #1250 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 8:44 pm
They do have some uses Bemused. For example, the WA Liberals, who are suffering from an infestation of fundies and bible bashers, are convinced that a lurch to the right is what the electorate want and therefore is the solution to their electoral woes.
caf @ #1252 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 8:54 pm
The Rohingya in Rakhine State, Myanmar would agree that the Buddhists are capable of sectarian violence and ethnic cleansing.
grimace @ #1253 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 10:55 pm
They are starting to do a good job on the Libs in Victoria too!
Nor for more serious stuff, how is the wife and bubs?
Selling ABC is not going well, I posted a link on my facebook and people not happy.
Also:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Japan-wants-people-to-keep-working-until-70-amid-labor-crunch
Far right wants people working older in Japan.
Same here.
Oops… now
bemused @ #1255 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 8:58 pm
Bub is going well, her sleeping is better than that of her brother at the same stage of his life. I’m keeping a close eye on mum, I’m a bit concerned about some signs of postnatal depression.
I wouldn’t let atheists off either. Various communist despots were atheists and they certainly did bad things …
Sorry to hear about your wife.
That s something not to be taken lightly. Has she sought any treatment?
Rossmcg. @ #1259 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:01 pm
Some of whom, e.g. Stalin, started of in a Seminary or similar.
The decision of the Liberal Federal Council is an absolute clanger. They have handed Labor a stick with which they’ll be able to savagely beat Brian Trumble with all the way to the next election.
I’m just trying to work out how the CPG are going to spin this most fortunate turn of events into a test for Bill Shorten.
the selling of ABC is like selling medicare LOL.
Labor should mass text message.
Rossmcg. @ #1257 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:01 pm
Bad people can do bad things and hide behind their ideology. And good people are good despite their ideology.
Maybe if the fuse was long enough..
bemused @ #1260 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 9:03 pm
Not yet, I’m waiting to see if it’s just the normal baby blues that all women experience, or it’s something worse. We’ve had the normal home visits from the midwife and child health nurse, and they’ve both commented on it.
If I was a betting man, given her family history, I’d bet we’ll be off to the GP early next week for further help. I’m fortunate enough to have another week off work.
Zoidlord @ #1263 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:07 pm
I don’t think Labor will need to do much at all.
There will be widespread community outrage.
bemused @ #1261 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 9:04 pm
The difference is that they didn’t do those things in the name of atheism, they did them because they were bad people.
grimace @ #1266 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:09 pm
What happens when you return to work?
grimace @ #1268 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:10 pm
Bertrand Russell made an interesting comparison chart Christianity v Communism.
They follow a pattern.
I don’t think saving the ABC is much of a vote winner for Labor. Medicare, on the other hand..
bemused @ #1269 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 9:11 pm
That’s next week’s problem.
We’re fortunate that we have a very good relationship with her family, and the relationship with mine is vastly improved over the last couple of years. Her mum is able to stay with us and be here when I can’t, and we’re a lot more open to help from my family than we have been historically.
Her own families’ attitude to mental health lept forward several decades* a couple of years ago when my brother in law’s wife was an involuntary guest of the mental health system and is still under reasonably intensive treatment.
* Their attitude to mental health is still not in the current, probably 1990’s rather than the 1950’s it was before the incident that must never be spoken of happened.
Yes – “never interrupt your enemy when he is in the middle of making a mistake”.
Catholics, Buddhists, Muslims, Athiests – any belief system can be twisted to support whatever it is the rich and powerful want to do. They themselves may or may not believe but find religion convenient as a tool to take and maintain power. Most religions seem to have a macho-warrior version that appeals to alpha males. The So-called ‘Islamic State’ is a recent example.
I think that religious belief might be a matter of biology / genetics. Some people’s brains seem to be wired up to believe, to faith. Mine isn’t. When I was young I thought that was because I was too smart and rational. I don’t think that now. People who are much more intelligent, rational and much better people than I believe. I can sort of understand why people believe and how they think, it seems to require a sort of ‘suspension of disbelief’ which I have no ability (or desire) to achieve.
bemused @ #1268 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:14 pm
Atheism isn’t a religion. Also communism is an ideology. Do you have a short description of the pattern of Christianity v Communism?
Grimace,
First of all, congratulations! (I don’t think I’ve crossed paths with you for a few weeks.)
Second, get to the GP earlier if you have the hunch, Grimace. These things are best got on to early, and you know her best.
Good luck with it all, and look after yourself too!
“Bad people can do bad things and hide behind their ideology. And good people are good despite their ideology.”
Yes.
Late Riser @ #1275 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:19 pm
Try this:
Source: http://rowrrbazzle.blogspot.com/2007/05/bertrand-russell-on-communism-and.html
Bertrand Russell made an interesting comparison chart Christianity v Communism.
They follow a pattern.
Arundhati Roy made a good observation that the only states in India where communism has taken hold are those with substantial christian populations, and suggested it was the effect on thinking of indoctrinated monotheism.
grimace @ #1272 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:18 pm
Sounds like you have it all under control. You are fortunate to have those sources of support.
Give her my best wishes. She will be in my thoughts.
I read Russell’s History of Western Philosophy while recovering from an operation.
Heavy going, but very interesting.
bemused @ #1276 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:24 pm
Thank you. That ties things together nicely. It has a familiar cadence. There was a SF writer who attempted to describe the fundamental flow of all stories. I don’t recall his name right now, but this has a similar feel.
Time for sleep. Good night.
Late Riser
I had a rather eclectic taste in reading.
Steve777
Interest rates remain at emergency settings – and the lowest ever
So they will increase
In regards the impact on the housing market, remember that between January 2000 and January 2010 (and effectively 2008 because our banks stopped lending then) the amount we owed as home mortgage debt rose by 350%, from $335 Billion to $1.226 Trillion.
So when inflation introduced courtesy of government policies saw interest rates increasing including in 2007 with the 10 Year Bond Yield with a 7 in front of it, our home mortgage debt already reflected that 350% increase in home mortgage debt – and it was serviced
We are informed that what we owe our home mortgage lenders now sits at $1.7 Trillion, so a 40% increase post 2010
The RBA Governor’s comments on wages are telling
They are telling because interest rates will and must increase – and absent wage increases the impact will be on discretionary spending (which is already the case because of increases in non discretionary spending courtesy of utility costs, insurance costs including health, Council Rates etc) impacting an economy which is an 80% plus service industry economy
This manifests to advertising – and media
So it is my view that the RBA Governor is jaw boning this government saying “I am sick of doing all your work, I am going to lift interest rates (and I am happy to have a devalued currency impact but only to a level) and if you do not want a recession because people will firstly look to retain the roof over their heads so the discretionary economy will really collapse, then support a meaningful lift in wages otherwise I will screw you”
People will cut their cloth with the first emphasis being retaining their roof over their head
There is also the impact of part time and casual employment – unemployment and more particularly under employment
Under this government business has cleaned up, screwing workers and that is why we find ourselves in the position we are now in
The Balance which sustains our economy has been absent
These are the reasons we need a change of government – to restore balance between Capital and Labour
Otherwise we face a protracted recession where discretionary spending is having tomato sauce on your sausage every Saturday night whilst watching free to air television in the dark
“I’m just trying to work out how the CPG are going to spin this most fortunate turn of events into a test for Bill Shorten.”
Ahhh………. Grim, the “test” for Bill Shorten will be if he supports or opposes their other resolution which is apparently to do a Trump and shift our embassy to Jerusalem.
good luck to the missus mate. hopefully it will pass.
And am I right in thinking that Labor National Conferences are open to observers?
But the Liberal Party have had theirs behind closed doors with only media invitees – and did I read 70 delegates including MP’s?
So where are Party members?
Observer @ #1287 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:52 pm
ALP National Conferences always used to be open to observers from media, business, interest groups and party members. I presume it is the same still, although they are now much larger affairs with many more delegates.
a r says:
Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 10:19 pm
equal or not? @ #1233 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 9:57 pm
Could people explain to me why it is acceptable that posters on here can say that they want all 1 billion catholics and their apologists to be killed?.
I don’t believe anybody has expressed such a preference. Please cite some references.
I cite this, just the latest:
boomy1 says:
Saturday, June 16, 2018 at 9:32 pm
Why Oh Why couldn’t the entire Catholic Church and it’s apologists been having having a holiday at Maralinga on October 9, 1957?
All the venial sin dudes and the mortal sin losers could have been sent to whatever hell they believe in.
Observer,
At the other end of the economic scale, I have a mate who is a barber* on the north shore.
He has other mates who are barbers, and collectively they have shops all over north and west Sydney. He says none of them have ever seen it this quiet.
He also reckon’s mens’ haircuts are just about the first disposable expenditure item to go when the household budget constraint binds. I reckon he could be right.
*To be fair, he’s a very well educated barber now trained in compliance law who likes to chat macro-monetary policy over beef and brew. And he’s bald.
equal or not? @ #1289 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:03 am
And you took that as a serious proposition?
LU not logged in
Funny.. i was just speaking yesterday to a nephew by marriage, a tory voter, who said his business was very quiet and he had to let go some traddies.
bemused
And you took that as a serious proposition?
—-
Hardly seriously, .. but certainly typically: it was on Polbludger… …..a liberal capitalist thruster site..
equal or not? @ #1293 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:13 am
So you are in the same camp as GG?
So you are in the same camp as GG?
….
No idea, i am gay and maybe camp, but i would not want to besmirch other posters.
Do you think that anyone who complains about racism/sectarianism is right wing?
equal or not? @ #1295 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:21 am
Most of the comments having a dig at Catholics seem to come from recovered or recovering Catholics. I think the antics of the Catholic hierarchy is what does most to besmirch the Catholic Church.
I was taught by Josephite nuns. Terrifying huge things with sticks .
Like the nun in “The Blues Brothers” but worse. It’s weird shit for a young person.
boomy1 @ #1297 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 12:38 am
Wow! I bet.
I recall when I was in primary school, the kids a couple of doors down the street went to a Catholic school run by nuns who beat the crap out of them.
Eventually it got too much and their parents pulled them out of the Catholic school and sent them to the public school.
OTOH, I have met a number of Catholic priests who were top guys.
Rossmcg. @ #1258 Saturday, June 16th, 2018 – 11:01 pm
Certainly they have. My original point only had to do with the relative rationality of various organized belief systems; not whether atrocities have been done in the name of one system or another.
I’d be happy to see less irrationality in the world, but don’t think it would change the rate at which people commit atrocities against other people. Evil men will use any creed or none to justify their acts.
It looks like they just have the website so far but I have no doubt this training will be a good resource when it is fully running. When the run the survey I hope to contribute some ideas.