BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

Comments Page 26 of 37
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  1. Cancelling exersises with SK? Something the NK have been after for years anbd Trump just gave it to them, for nothing. Massive bend over by the US and big win for NK.

    If this is the art of the deal, you can understand why he’s a several times bankrupt.

  3. Good evening all,

    Just a observation from a complete amateur.

    The focus appears to be on how the recently concluded meeting between Trump and whats his name from North Korea has been a success / failure for either, both , China etc etc.

    Just remember China is not the only ” major ” with skin in the game on the Korean Peninsula. Russia shares a border with North Korea and I would think the optics from the meeting today and the pullback from Trump on military exercises would be a big win for Putin as well as North Korea and China.

    Just remember that at the same as Trump and the rest of the G7 were imploding Russia, China, India , Iran et al were busy having a kumbia love fest and projecting a United ” second option ” to the current western status quo. Add in the nothing outcome for Trump today and from my perspective a big win today for China and Russia as well as the what’s his name from North Korea.

    Cheers.

  6. Confessions @ #1250 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 9:18 pm

    Late Riser @ #1202 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 7:13 pm

    <a href="” rel=”nofollow”>” rel=”nofollow”>
    made for each other…

    I saw a grab on TV of the two of them walking side-by-side, but from behind. And they both have the same shaped head and hairdo from the back. For whatever that is worth.

    Why are we not reading/hearing about the litany of terror the Kim dynasty has perpetrated on its people? How long ago was that naive US hostage sent home to die? (just a single example) Kim is dangerous. Trump is dangerous. That picture spoke to me. Lost for words… It would be educational to see the G8-2 image (Merkel glaring at Trump) side by side with this one. It is time to stop making fun of Trump.

  7. Has Australia issued a response?

    The Parakeet of High Fashion has changed her pants, her hair style to replicate Trump’s and done her nails (as in sharpened them)

    Mind you once her numbers are wiped in WA there goes any relevence she may have

  11. Confessions, thank you. I hope this gets repeated and repeated and repeated, and repeated some more. I haven’t seen much in the places I read. Trump is dangerous.

  12. Mr Ed says:

    Surprised Abbott and Dutton haven’t tried to do a deal with NK to take the nukes off their hands.

    Herr Obergruppenführer Kartoffelkopf would be racing to do a deal for NK to take our AS.

  13. Late Riser:

    Agree Trump is dangerous. He’s dangerous because he’s incompetent, and he has few people around him (or Republicans in Congress) willing to push back against him.

    We certainly live in interesting times.

  14. From Buzzfeed – US kindergarten children being prepared for what to do if there is a school shooter on the loose. This is kind of sad.

    ?downsize=715:*&output-format=auto&output-quality=auto

  18. citizen @ #1260 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 9:48 pm

    From Buzzfeed – US kindergarten children being prepared for what to do if there is a school shooter on the loose. This is kind of sad.

    Yeah, kinda. But sad is for dead puppies and lost lovers. Sad is not caring enough to be angry. Why are we frightened of being angry?

    Disclosure. My partner and I lived in the USA with our two children for 18 years. They grew up there. We are all back in Aus now. I never saw a gun the whole time we were there. But gun injury and deaths were a regular cadence in our suburb. Guns are polarizing. The predominant attitude towards guns in the US makes me angry.

  20. From the NYT article posted by Confessions – will the evangelicals ask Trump if he requested Kim to give assurances that religious persecution would stop? (Obvious answer: of course they wouldn’t ask their hero Trump to do such a thing.)

    North Korea considers the spread of most religions dangerous, but Christianity is considered a “particularly serious threat” because it “provides a platform for social and political organization and interaction outside the realm of the State,” according to the United Nations report.

    Christians are barred from practicing their religion, and those caught doing so are “subject to severe punishments,” the report found. North Korean leaders also conflate Christians with those detained in prison camps, those who try to flee and “others considered to introduce subversive influences,” the report stated.

    In interviews with The New York Times in 2012, four North Koreans said that they had been warned that the gulag awaited those who spoke to journalists or Christian missionaries. “If the government finds out I am reading the Bible, I’m dead,” one woman said.

    In its 2018 World Watch List, the Christian group Open Doors ranked North Korea the worst nation in the world for Christians, and in a statement last week, the group called on Christians to take part in 24 hours of prayer and fasting on Monday ahead of the meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim.

  21. Barney in Go Dau says:
    Tuesday, June 12, 2018 at 10:00 pm
    don @ #1272 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 6:58 pm

    Thanks one and all for the congratulations for my wife Maria’s OAM!

    She is delighted with your good wishes.

    ______________

    You must be very proud of her!!!

    ___________

    Always have been, always will be.

    I am proud to be her husband. Golden wedding coming up in a couple of years.

    She is the antithesis of that link that I think Zoomster posted in the last day or so about how this woman was sorry she had become a feminist and now found that she was unable to love male dick heads who needed their wives to be subservient, earn less than they do, and so on.

    Maria is a highly intelligent, strong and resilient woman who has faced and overcome a lot of difficulties, as we all have, and doesn’t take backchat from anyone. I love her.

  23. I watched Bill Shortens town hall in Dianella (WA) on Facebook Live and he was very good. IMO a stronger performance than Q&A last night. The format suits him.

  25. citizen:

    I’ve given up waiting for the penny to drop with evangelicals. They are rusted on to Trump.

    Whether other christians choose to take up cudgels remains to be seen. Although I’m assuming they won’t.

  31. Thanks for the link to the Foodora article, Barney.
    I have no doubt Murdoch’s rags will tirade against the idea of making the riders employees. The IPA would like more people to be ‘contractors’ so they can be royally screwed over by these exploitative businesses.
    See Item 55 in their list here:
    http://nofibs.com.au/abbott-says-yes-to-to-10-of-the-ipas-100-radical-ideas-so-far/

    (With thanks to the poster who put up the link earlier today. I’m sorry but I can’t locate who that was)

  32. Kaitlan CollinsVerified account@kaitlancollins

    Army Col. Chad Carroll, a spokesman for U.S. Forces Korea, says they’ve “received no official updated guidance on execution or cessation on any upcoming training exercises.”

    Another off the cuff, unprepared Trump announcement then? How unsurprisement.

  33. a r:

    One Republican speaks out.

    Steve SchmidtVerified account@SteveSchmidtSES
    3h3 hours ago
    The Placement of the US flag next to the flag of Nortk Korea, a murderous slave state, is an absolute desecration of our national colors

  35. Re. that Bernard Keane cumn cited above…

    Mr Keane was one of the press gang living off the “dysfunctional Labor” bandwagon in the years 2010-2013. Loud chortled could be heard coming from his personal direction on many occasions.

    He sledged Labor in the certain knowledge that it would help Abbott become PM. I am not saying he did this to actively help the Coalition, or that he was acting alone.

    Pathetic as it is and was, his motivations were quite possibly no more than that special kind of mindless nihilism that political journalists use as an umbrella against the possibility of being cut off the insider drip, or worse, just sheer feeding frenzy when blood was in the water.

    Well, Mr Keane, cry me a river, man. Anyone could have told you – in excruciating detail – where helping Abbott get elected would lead, and I’d be very surprised if they didn’t, multiple times.

    Next time you want to sook about how whistleblowers can get into trouble for talking to you, and if they do, you can be chucked in the slammer too (even if you acted innocently), remember the consequences of joining the herd in their lunch mob antics, just for a bit of fun.

    I hope you’re having lots of it today as you contemplate what is, compared to what might have been.

  37. Confessions @ #1279 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 11:10 pm

    Kaitlan CollinsVerified account@kaitlancollins

    Army Col. Chad Carroll, a spokesman for U.S. Forces Korea, says they’ve “received no official updated guidance on execution or cessation on any upcoming training exercises.”

    Another off the cuff, unprepared Trump announcement then? How unsurprisement.

    Hm, so Kim will (rightfully) be angry that the U.S. isn’t holding up its part of the bargain. And then Trump will (petulantly) be angry that Kim is angry.

  42. “They have great beaches. You see that whenever they are exploding the cannons in the ocean. I said look at that view. That would make a great condo,” Trump said when asked about the future of North Korea.

    They would have to clean out those pesky concentration camps with over 100,000 political dissidents and their families first

  43. BB = Now Keane has his knives out for Foley because, I am sure, Foley betrayed the greyhounds and Keane loves the mutts.

  45. These new Dad’s Army stamps, following in the wake of the failed campaign for a Brexit stamp, feels like some top notch trolling by the Royal Mail.

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. It’s a large edition today!

    Peter Hartcher is unconvinced by the Singapore outcome.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/the-rhetoric-was-positive-but-trump-kim-agreement-may-be-fantasy-20180612-p4zl1z.html
    Greg Sheridan says that there was diplomacy aplenty but little proof of change.
    https://outline.com/8zwhGZ
    The Guardian view on Trump in Singapore: a huge win – for North Korea.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/12/the-guardian-view-on-trump-in-singapore-a-huge-win-for-north-korea
    And Nick O’Malley reminds us of Kim’s despotic track record.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/we-should-remember-who-kim-is-and-who-his-victims-are-20180612-p4zkxi.html
    Sam Roggerveen gives us three reasons why Singapore had t happen,.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/three-reasons-why-the-singapore-summit-had-to-happen-20180612-p4zl0d.html
    The SMH editorial gets behind the new legislation to curb foreign influences.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/blocking-foreign-meddling-in-our-affairs-20180612-p4zkzm.html
    In an interesting contribution Nicholas Stuart examines the way we remember the fallen of our wartime dead.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/war-killing-and-memorials-how-much-to-remember-the-dead-20180612-p4zkxs.html
    Matt Wade looks at the latest NAB wellbeing index figures and says the contrast between the gloomy survey and upbeat growth figures was a neat reminder that GDP is an inadequate indicator of our collective welfare. He urges the Treasurer to pay more attention to this metric.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-small-improvements-that-could-deliver-a-big-boost-to-our-wellbeing-20180612-p4zl17.html
    All is not well in Liberal land. And also there is its infestation by religious extremes that is going on.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-anger-over-factional-deal-20180612-p4zkwr.html
    Paul Kelly wonders if Australia sleepwalking away from its future?
    https://outline.com/7U7SGk
    Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner may be working as unpaid White House advisers, but the couple isn’t doing too badly with their side gigs, bringing in at least $US81 million ($106 million) of outside income.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/unpaid-advisers-ivanka-trump-and-jared-kushner-made-us81-million-last-year-20180613-p4zl2s.html
    Is this the start of a death spiral?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/tesla-to-cut-thousands-of-jobs-in-search-for-profit-20180613-p4zl2w.html
    A new term perhaps? Toll gouging.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/costly-catch-for-motorists-driving-on-first-stage-of-f6-extension-20180612-p4zkxj.html
    Is this what our nation has become?
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/abused-at-the-supermarket-for-being-muslim-20180612-p4zkwv.html
    John Collett writes on how financial abuse of elders is likely to grow.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/super-and-retirement/financial-abuse-of-elders-is-likely-to-grow-20180608-p4zke8.html
    Phil Coorey tells us that amove within the Nationals for the party to broaden its appeal beyond its traditional rural base will receive another push today.
    https://outline.com/gxUz4u
    Eliminating the second highest tax bracket would help “wipe out bunching” and reduce endemic levels of legal tax avoidance, one of Australia’s leading tax experts says, in comments that are likely to be seized on by the Turnbull government to help push their $144 billion income tax package through a resistant Parliament.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/flat-income-tax-rate-will-limit-people-gaming-the-system-researcher-20180612-p4zkza.html
    Australia’s migrant intake will be substantially down this financial year – possibly 25,000 below the 190,000 planned figure – led by reductions in the number of skilled and sponsored working visas.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/13/australias-immigration-rate-to-fall-again-as-work-visa-approvals-drop
    Anna Patty reports that the question of whether food delivery bicycle riders are employees or contractors will be tested in what is expected to become the most significant legal case on the issue in more than 15 years. Food delivery company Foodora will face allegations that it engaged in sham contracting that resulted in the underpayment of workers who were classified as contractors instead of employees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/foodora-faces-allegations-of-sham-contracts-and-underpaying-workers-20180612-p4zkzw.html
    The NSW government will place a 10 per cent tax on all online gambling bets when the state budget is handed down by Treasurer Dominic Perrottet next week. The point of consumption tax will take effect from January 1 next year, mimicking a Victorian tax of 8 per cent on online bookmakers introduced in that state’s budget last month.
    https://outline.com/nnAYv4
    Aboriginal organisations say it’s no secret that the New South Wales child protection system is failing, as outlined in a scathing report the state’s government had kept under wraps for the past 18 months. And Pru Goward’s in the crosshairs yet again
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/13/calls-for-nsw-aboriginal-child-and-family-commissioner-in-wake-of-scathing-report
    AMP shares have slumped more than 80 per cent but things could get much worse, with little prospect for upside.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/investing/why-amp-shares-are-a-terrible-investment-20180612-p4zkz4.html
    Australia’s best financial advisers are rushing for the exits at our biggest financial institutions in the wake of the royal commission.
    https://outline.com/Sjzc5v
    And Dover Financial Group lured financial advisers by offering to postpone payment of annual licence fees for a year or more, but the collapsed company is now calling for immediate payments of those debts, leaving planners, who are already worried about their future, furious.
    https://outline.com/BBWWBy
    An audit of police’s firearms registry in Victoria throws up some alarming findings sparking anger among gun owners. Dozens of guns have been lost.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/missing-guns-fresh-doubts-over-victoria-police-firearms-registry-20180612-p4zl1i.html
    Former soldier C. August Elliott (what a name!) writes that disbanding might be the only option for Australia’s special ops.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/disbanding-might-be-the-only-option-for-australia-s-special-ops-20180611-p4zkqq.html
    White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has apologized for saying Justin Trudeau earned “a special place in hell” with his response to Donald Trump’s complaints about US-Canada trade.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/12/trump-trudeau-navarro-apology-special-place-insult-trade
    Josh Frydenberg says the NEG won’t stop investment in renewables, but the Government’s weak emissions reduction target indicates otherwise, writes Giles Parkinson.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/frydenbergs-neg-and-weak-emissions-targets-wont-help-renewables,11589
    Adele Ferguson looks at the legacy of Virgin Australia’s John Borghetti.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/cheaper-tickets-better-service-the-legacy-of-high-flying-borghetti-20180612-p4zkwg.html
    Stephen Bartholomeusz calls him “Teflon John” though.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/teflon-john-s-financial-outcomes-didn-t-match-his-ambition-20180612-p4zkxv.html
    An investigation into the conduct of Australian Public Service Commissioner John Lloyd could be dropped upon his retirement on August 8. How convenient!
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/john-lloyd-investigation-could-be-dropped-after-resignation-20180610-p4zkn6.html
    Nicole Hasham report that Adani is seeking to dodge federal scrutiny of its plan to build a pipeline pumping billions of litres of water from a river in drought-stricken central Queensland to feed its Carmichael mega-mine.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/adani-shuns-water-trigger-despite-drought-20180612-p4zkz1.html
    US Special Counsel Robert Mueller warned that Russian intelligence services have active “interference operations” in the US and asked a judge to limit the pretrial evidence provided to a Russian firm indicted over meddling in the 2016 election.
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/robert-mueller-warns-of-active-russian-meddling-seeks-disclosure-lid-20180613-p4zl33.html
    Michael Pascoe writes, “It’s bemusing to read the myriad excuses suggested for fewer investor housing loans – banks’ tougher credit standards, APRA, sundry anti-foreigner laws, Chinese capital constraints, interest-only loans rate hike, the royal commission. Everything except the most obvious reason: all investors are not entirely stupid.”
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/06/12/housing-investors-cool-michael-pascoe/
    After a nine-year hiatus, Paul Hogan is coming back to the big screen. The role shouldn’t be too much of a stretch – Hogan, 78, is to play himself in The Very Excellent Mr Dundee.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/2018/06/12/paul-hogan-dundee-back/
    A Catholic priest who presides over two parishes in Melbourne’s south has been ordered to take leave while he is investigated for allegedly breaching child safety laws. Archbishop Denis Hart has asked Father Paul Newton, the parish priest for St Kevin’s Ormond and St Patrick’s Murrumbeena, to take a period of administrative leave while parishioners’ concerns are probed.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/parish-priest-stood-down-over-child-safety-concerns-20180612-p4zl0i.html
    So Channel Nine has swung David Warner into the line-up for its one-day commentary team. What next? Perhaps Barnaby Joyce will chip in with pitch reports. Kate Halfpenny explains why David Warner’s new Nine job is a massive error of judgement.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/tv/2018/06/12/david-warner-nine-job/

    Cartoon Corner

    A big catch up from Mark Knight.



    Mark David’s still getting stuck into Barnaby.

    As is Alan Moir!

    Glen Le Lievre with a cheeky one!

    Fiona Katauskas in Singapore.

    Zanetti on Singapore.

    Here’s one from Matt Golding that didn’t make it to the collection at the bottom.

    Jon Kudelka sums up the Singapore meeting quite nicely.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/9ac7fe9bc67e96601539f81385111f62
    David Pope’s back with a beauty about the CBA.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/act/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Lots more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-13-2018-20180612-h11alu.html

  47. Morning all, thanks BK for today’s huge effort.

    The main reason the deal with Kim will not result in anything much:

    The president is counting on his personal skills to convince Kim that abandoning North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, and the security it provides him, is in his country’s and the world’s best interests. That will require hard bargaining in the future. But the joint communique signed by the two leaders offered scant concrete evidence to back up the North Korean leader’s pledge to “complete denuclearization.”

    To reach the goals Trump has outlined will require discipline and commitment that has not been part of the president’s foreign-policy tool kit. And he must resist the kind of impetuousness he displayed on his way to Singapore when he abruptly withdrew U.S. support for a joint communique negotiated with other nations at the Group of Seven meeting in Canada. His pique at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s post-meeting news conference created a rupture in relations with America’s closest allies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/history-is-made-as-trump-and-kim-meet-but-will-they-produce-something-historic/2018/06/11/98dc5100-6de1-11e8-bd50-b80389a4e569_story.html?utm_term=.bb916aa2319a

  48. If you missed the Dear Leader pre summit video you can watch it here. Journos in attendance initially thought it was something Kim’s propaganda team cooked up, but no. It was Trump and the White House, described by Trump as an ‘elevator pitch’.

    Golden sunrises, gleaming skylines and high-speed trains. Children skipping through Kim Il Sung square in Pyongyang. North Korean flags fluttering between images of Egyptian pyramids, the Taj Mahal and the Lincoln Memorial.

    In a split-screen shot, Kim Jong Un waved to an adoring crowd while President Trump stood beside him with his thumb in the air. The pair appeared over and over again, like running mates in a campaign video.

    …

    But then the video looped, playing this time in English. And then Trump walked onto the stage and confirmed what some had already realized.

    The film was not North Korean propaganda. It had been made in America, by or on the orders of his White House, for the benefit of Kim.

    “I hope you liked it,” Trump told the reporters. “I thought it was good. I thought it was interesting enough to show. … And I think he loved it.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/06/12/reporters-thought-this-video-was-north-korea-propaganda-it-came-from-the-white-house/?utm_term=.8e07e830e536

  49. And meanwhile the Mueller investigation ticks along.

    Within the next month, Mueller is reportedly planning to deliver his findings in the obstruction of justice investigation to Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. “Donald is very worried,” said a Republican close to Trump. The difference is that Trump is now more unshackled than at any point in his presidency, meaning that firing Mueller or Rosenstein remains a possibility. “We’ve entered the era of primal Trump,” one outside adviser told me.

    Trump allies view the legal cloud hanging over Trump’s former attorney and fixer, Michael Cohen, as at least as ominous as the obstruction investigation. According to a source close to Cohen, Cohen has told friends that he expects to be arrested any day now. (Reached for comment, Cohen wrote in a text message, “Your alleged source is wrong!”) The specter of Cohen flipping has Trump advisers on edge. “Trump should be super worried about Michael Cohen,” a former White House official said. “If anyone can blow up Trump, it’s him.”

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/06/insiders-fear-trump-is-lurching-from-one-nuclear-showdown-to-another?mbid=social_twitter

  50. ‘Is this what our nation has become?’

    Well, Dad was abused in the streets in the 1950s for being a reffo, so we were pretty much there already.

    (He also was wonderfully welcomed. All countries have a mixed bag of citizens…)

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