BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate continues to record a voteless recovery in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings.

Two new polls this week, a particularly strong one for Labor from Essential Research and a stable one from ReachTEL, produce a 0.4% shift to Labor on this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. Labor gains two on the seat projection, those being in Victoria and Western Australia. Essential provided a new seat of leadership ratings, and these conformed with the existing impression of an upswing in personal support for Malcolm Turnbull that has so far done little to improve his party’s voting intention. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,845 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Does anyone seriously believe that anything was accomplished at the summit?

    Trump agreed to suspend military exercises with Sth Korea. So I suppose he gave in/caved.

  6. a r:

    Jim AcostaVerified account@Acosta
    15m15 minutes ago
    Trump said he gave up “nothing” in summit with Kim Jong Un. Suspending military exercises with South Korea is not “nothing.”

    Hopefully the US media will call out his spin. How many Republicans do you reckon there are back home choking on their morning coffee as they wake to the sight of the US flags interspersed with the Nth Korean flags ? 😀

    :large

  8. Confessions @ #1205 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 7:49 pm

    How many Republicans do you reckon there are back home choking on their morning coffee as they wake to the sight of the US flags interspersed with the Nth Korean flags ?

    Zero. I think you’re giving U.S. citizens generally far too much credit in terms of ability to recognize foreign flags. We suck at it.

  9. CNN PoliticsVerified account@CNNPolitics
    8m8 minutes ago
    Trump says he trusts Kim Jong Un. And if he’s wrong? “I may be wrong, I mean I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘Hey I was wrong,'” said Trump, before adding, “I don’t know that I’ll ever admit that, but I’ll find some kind of an excuse.” https://cnn.it/2LHOB45

    Video footage in the link. He was making a joke, except Trump doesn’t crack jokes.

  10. a r:

    Probably right.

    I see some Trumpists on twitter are declaring that he’s ended the Cold War with this summit.

  11. So is anyone giving attention to the examination of Ken Henry in the opportunistic and political claim against the government over home insulation?

    The scheme would never have been considered absent the ravages of the GFC, not then or in the future – and he does not recall whose idea it was

    Then detailed the ravages of the GFC seeing a run on a bank in the U.K. for the first time in 150 years with that bank nationalised

    The circumstances were “dire”

    The examination continues tomorrow

    And he rejected that “climate change” was ever a consideration – it was solely the ravages of the GFC

    With a banking background therefore certain considerations I have always maintained that Australians per se never recognised the risk to any degree of the GFC – for a raft of reasons uncluding the growth of private debt from 2000

    The size of the government rescue package was $40 Billion – and it was successful

    Puts the deficits of the current government into perspective doesn’t it – because what are the current deficits achieving?

    Particularly given interest rates remain rooted where they are

  12. Confessions

    I saw that on the live feed. It was actually a bit of a deliberate lol from Trump. He was very upbeat and in a good mood. The sort of upbeat mood Noo York real estate peeps are when selling to a potential client 🙂

  14. Just what the Republicans want, fewer people voting.
    In a 5–4 decision handed down Monday morning, the Supreme Court ruled that states may purge voters from the rolls due to their failure to cast a ballot. The ruling will disproportionately disenfranchise minorities and veterans as well as low-income and disabled people. Because of this decision, it is now likely that thousands of Americans will show up to the polls in 2018 hoping to cast a ballot—only to be told that they have been purged from the rolls because they skipped the past few elections

    I suspect the Republicans and conservatives in general, really aren’t into democracy..

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/supreme-court-greenlights-ohio-voter-purges-in-husted-v-randolph.html

  15. poroti @ #1210 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:07 pm

    Confessions

    I saw that on the live feed. It was actually a bit of a deliberate lol from Trump. He was very upbeat and in a good mood. The sort of upbeat mood Noo York real estate peeps are when selling to a potential client 🙂

    I guess we’re the client. What did he sell us? (rhetorical)

  17. What is present on the NK borders including sea borders is the catalyst for the weapon development by NK

    You attack us, we attack you

    The withdrawal of those War assets was always going to be a non negotiable requirement of NK

    NK were simply reacting to threat – and if they give up their nuclear capability it will be because they have got what they want and for no other reason

  19. John R @ #1213 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    Just what the Republicans want, fewer people voting.
    In a 5–4 decision handed down Monday morning, the Supreme Court ruled that states may purge voters from the rolls due to their failure to cast a ballot. The ruling will disproportionately disenfranchise minorities and veterans as well as low-income and disabled people. Because of this decision, it is now likely that thousands of Americans will show up to the polls in 2018 hoping to cast a ballot—only to be told that they have been purged from the rolls because they skipped the past few elections

    I suspect the Republicans and conservatives in general, really aren’t into democracy..

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/supreme-court-greenlights-ohio-voter-purges-in-husted-v-randolph.html

    Democrats and advocates need to be constantly encouraging people to register and enrol to vote. Even if they are already on the voter roll, it can’t hurt to check.

  20. Confessions @ #1218 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    John R @ #1213 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    Just what the Republicans want, fewer people voting.
    In a 5–4 decision handed down Monday morning, the Supreme Court ruled that states may purge voters from the rolls due to their failure to cast a ballot.

    “Oh, that was easy,” says the Supreme Court, and for an encore goes on to prove that black is white, and get themselves killed on the next zebra crossing.”

    (With apologies to Douglas Adams)

  22. Player One @ #1219 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:30 pm

    Confessions @ #1218 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    John R @ #1213 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    Just what the Republicans want, fewer people voting.
    In a 5–4 decision handed down Monday morning, the Supreme Court ruled that states may purge voters from the rolls due to their failure to cast a ballot.

    “Oh, that was easy,” says the Supreme Court, and for an encore goes on to prove that black is white, and get themselves killed on the next zebra crossing.”

    (With apologies to Douglas Adams)

    I like Chinese?

  23. I suspect others have mentioned it here already, but I find the difference in Trump’s behaviour towards North Korea and towards Cuba to be…

    Oh. Opening up relations with Cuba was an Obama thing. I forgot that.

  26. Confessions

    Read an article a day or so back from a former US negotiator with NK. He reckons that NK are serious . Damned if I can find it again but will post if I do.

  28. Let’s assume that NK gets rid of its nuclear weapons AND the US withdraws from the Korean Peninsula, THEN China has succeeded in pushing the US further from the heartland.

  30. I like Chinese?

    I like Chinese?

    Because they only come up to your knees , yet they’re always friendly and they’re ready to please ?

  32. Confessions @ #1227 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:42 pm

    Not a Douglas Adams fan then?

    Obviously not.

    Ok. Here are some relevant snippets from the article John R posted …

    The NVRA prohibits any state from removing a registrant from the federal roll “by reason of the person’s failure to vote.” Congress intended this provision to protect Americans’ right to vote and not to vote, barring states from implementing a “use it or lose it” policy that punished infrequent voters.
    …
    Now, the Supreme Court has reversed that decision in an opinion by Justice Samuel Alito that warps the plain text of the NVRA to mean the opposite of what it actually says.

  34. P1:

    My ??? was puzzlement as to why you’d responded to my response to John R. Your replies have simply deepened that puzzlement rather than clarified it, but I’m sensing this is another of those ‘down the rabbit-hole’ go nowhere conversations, so I’m not going to pursue this further.

  35. Confessions @ #1232 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:52 pm

    P1:

    My ??? was puzzlement as to why you’d responded to my response to John R. Your replies have simply deepened that puzzlement rather than clarified it, but I’m sensing this is another of those ‘down the rabbit-hole’ go nowhere conversations, so I’m not going to pursue this further.

    *sigh*

    Here I am, brain the size of a planet … 🙂

  41. Because they only come up to your knees , yet they’re always friendly and they’re ready to please ?

    The chinese will survive us all without any doubt.

    Funny. I reckon I could remember about half the lyrics but was completely unaware until now (or the memory had been burnt in a blaze of revelry) that it was Monty Python.

  43. GG

    Well, yes – I’m always pointing out that believing in the dream and putting in the extra yards won’t see me get any taller…

  44. John HarwoodVerified account@JohnJHarwood
    13m13 minutes ago
    ex-Obama aide Blinken: “But we’ve been there many times before. NKorea has made much more detailed commitments to denuke, then violates them. We won’t know for a long time whether this is real. Meanwhile Kim getting everything he wants – legitimacy, lessening of pressure”

    Has Australia issued a response?

  45. Confessions @ #1217 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    John R @ #1213 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    In a 5–4 decision handed down Monday morning, the Supreme Court ruled that states may purge voters from the rolls due to their failure to cast a ballot.

    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/supreme-court-greenlights-ohio-voter-purges-in-husted-v-randolph.html

    https://compote.slate.com/images/36c09b80-ffc5-4e7c-ab7e-faec22b44679.jpeg?width=780&height=520&rect=3602×2401&offset=16×0

    So glad to have the system we do in Australia.

  47. NK will not “denuclearise” whatever that is eventually defined as. They will dud the US on that one.

    Nuclear site that was falling to bits anyway decommissioned?? Meaningless

    Recovery of remains? Meaningless blather.

    Security guarantees for NK from the US?? Huge win for the NK. Now they can harras SK as much as they like and the US HAS to mediate and be involved as they have guarantees to both sides, and the US will come under pressure to draw down troop presence. Meaningless and dangerous in the mid/long term. Massive bend over by the US and big win for NK.

    Cancelling exersises with SK? Something the NK have been after for years anbd Trump just gave it to them, for nothing. Massive bend over by the US and big win for NK.

    Watch the press spin this. 🙁

  48. An ABC journo earlier this day, talking about the lead up to the meeting, said wtte of “…Trump was being considered for a Nobel Prize..”

    And that’s how stories get beaten up, folks!

  49. Player One @ #1232 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:54 pm

    Confessions @ #1232 Tuesday, June 12th, 2018 – 8:52 pm

    P1:

    My ??? was puzzlement as to why you’d responded to my response to John R. Your replies have simply deepened that puzzlement rather than clarified it, but I’m sensing this is another of those ‘down the rabbit-hole’ go nowhere conversations, so I’m not going to pursue this further.

    *sigh*

    Here I am, brain the size of a planet … 🙂

    Sorry. Sorry. But look how that turned out for Marvin. 🙂 (Couldn’t resist.)

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