The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.
UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.
UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.
In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.
One example of differentiating headlines —
When I go to this link,
https://www.bordermail.com.au/news/local-news/5457643/not-much-point-having-abortion-help-away-from-clinic-helper/
I get ‘Reaction from Albury figures to abortion clinic protest ban’ as the headline, which is reasonable.
However, the front page of the digital edition
https://www.bordermail.com.au/
has ‘Not much point having abortion help away from clinic: Helper.”
In the latter example, I thought that there must be some proposal to shift counselling for women away from the clinic, and that “Helper” was the surname of a spokesperson.
But no – the ‘help’ referred to is the practice of standing outside abortion clinics harassing women, and the ‘helper’ is one of the organisers of these protests.
The Weekend Australian
Front Page
…and now, apparently, our environmental laws should be governed by poets who have been dead for half a century —
https://www.bordermail.com.au/story/5451503/you-say-if-its-good-enough-for-banjo-that-should-be-good-enough/
..with the interesting argument that it’s OK to eliminate NSW brumbies because no one gets to see them.
(There is an online poll on whether or not you think brumbies should go, so vote early, vote often).
The Daily Telegraph
Front Page
The Herald Sun
Front Page
caf @ #1776 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 10:14 pm
Thanks caf. I like your analogies. I’ll see if I can find how GPS receivers balance noisy satellite info. Random walk has step length and frequency parameters. I’ll give that some thought too.
Diogenes @ #1784 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 1:00 am
That’s interesting. I can use that straight away. Thanks Dio!
A series by Anthony Bourdain has been playing on the SBS Food Channel. He was one of the more entertaining celebrity chefs and gave his own unique insights into the many and varied places around the world that he visited.
He certainly was a cut above the horrible Gordon Ramsay with his shouting and swearing.
Facebook seems to be rooted this morning. I can only see a few items – and not recent ones at that. Anyone else having problems?
BK
No, mine is working fine, but I’ve had similar problems in the past, sometimes for a few days. Eventually everything just went back to normal.
From the BK Files.
A “must read” from Mike Seccombe on “Mitch Fifield, the IPA and the ABC”.
https://outline.com/Vh9F2f
*************************************************************
Not a lot of laughs in this story. There are a lot of home truths for anybody interested in the nature and intent of our current government.
I do like the following excerpt :-
Not so, I thought, naive or not, Ms. Reynolds
knows full well what is the intent of Mr. Fifield, hide though he may, from time to time, behind a blather of bullshit, blarny and deception.
While
The attacks are not going away, Ms. Hanson, stout defender of the good old days of yore with a cacophony of vehemence from RW supporters, wants changes to the ABC.
Now that Midsomer Murders can be seen on commercial TV and while in-depth journalism is stifled, when will the time be ripe for a closing down sale ❓
I concur with BK this really is a must read item.
The reason I like the bit about the dump is because I had a vision of Mr. Fifield travelling with Ms. Margaret but Ms. Margaret returning alone. He He He …..
https://truthout.org/articles/marine-heatwaves-changing-ocean-currents-and-capitalisms-threat-to-life/
This headline says it all – sadly, we reap what we sow.
BK @ #1808 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:46 am
Facebook working fine for me.
Morning all. I recommend reading Canadian PM Trudeau’s G7 address, highlighting many policy areas Labor should support. It is striking how consistent Australia’s main economic policy problems are with the G7. The solutions (education, participation, increasing low and middle incomes, ending tax evasion) are also consistent with many Labor policies. Note the total absence of talk about tax cuts.
https://www.scribd.com/document/381266413/Achieving-Growth-that-Works-for-Everyone
The Age
Front Page
What has happened to Rowe? He hasn’t had a cartoon for a while now – am assuming he’s on leave?
Every woman knows that when she wants to “refresh” her image, she will adopt a new hairstyle. Sometimes it happens with new employment, sometimes after the breakdown of a relationship, sometimes just because…
Has anyone else noticed that Julie Bishop has not only changed the side she parts her hair, but has gone bouffant, almost in the style of Michaelia Cash?
There could be a number of reasons for this, but it’s interesting, from a political pov, to speculate…
She looks the same to me as she always has. Then again, I don’t pay that much attention to her.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-08/sa-govt-decides-not-to-go-ahead-with-aboriginal-treaty/9851166
There seems to be a power struggle at the moment between Porter (and probably Dutton) on the one hand and the more more ‘moderate’ types like Pyne, on the other .
It revolves around Porter claiming that new ‘anti-foreign interference’ laws must be enacted to protect the by-elections from manipulation by nasty people. Porter, using Benson in the Oz as his mouthpiece, is obviously trying to wedge Labor into rushing the whole suite of anti-foreign interference bills into law. However he seems to have fallen foul of people like Pyne who question the rush.
Long may this L/NP disunity continue.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/national-security/asio-afp-called-up-for-byelection-security-duty/news-story/b3c5e9068d332fb3ab13412f0b2b591a?from=htc_rss&utm_source=TheAustralian&utm_campaign=EditorialSF&utm_content=SocialFlow&utm_medium=Twitter
The article is also in outline.com courtesy of BK.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/special-counsel-mueller-indicts-associate-of-paul-manafort/2018/06/08/507ae696-6b44-11e8-bf8c-f9ed2e672adf_story.html?utm_term=.6a409abf6223
The indictment is here: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4499404-Show-Temp-2.html
I’m not the only one who’s noticed the change. 😆
(Can’t produce a pic, sorry.)
lizzie @ #1821 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 6:29 am
I’ve said before that it reminds me of the girls here who sometimes walk around with their helmets on rather than carry then, so maybe it’s hiding some sort of protection the Party environment requires?
Or maybe it’s a just WA thing that hasn’t caught on with the Labor women? 🙂
Trump’s man in the Interior Department is forcing out the superintendent of Yellowstone National Park as an example to those who are resisting moves to introduce hunting, mining and other activities into national parks.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/deficient-and-doomed-to-fail-experts-roast-threatened-species-plan-20180608-p4zkc3.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/08/world/canada/canada-trudeau-trump-us-group-of-7.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
The website reporting the 18 year old story? Breitbart of course!
booleanbach @ #1811 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 9:04 am
We do indeed. Many people don’t realize that the oceans are absorbing about 90% of the additional heat energy that the planet has accumulated due to global warming. That’s about the same heat energy as 4 Hiroshima-sized atomic bombs going off every second.
In a coal mine they used canaries to warn of dangerous conditions – if the canary died, you got out. In the oceans it is coral that gives the early warning, and the coral is dying. Unfortunately there’s nowhere for us to go – if the oceans die, we die too 🙁
A few conservatives on today’s show.
Hand in glove: Coalition and IPA. But we knew that, didn’t we.
Meanwhile Trump continues to give Russia everything Putin wants.
No collusion, indeed. They’re colluding in plain sight!
Citizen (and many others)
Something in my bones tells me that there is a power struggle afoot within the defence/security/FA establishment. The Andrew Hastie statement, the security laws and now this SAS revelation all seem to be part of it.
Expect casualties.
a r:
If people are referring to the G7 as the G6+1, the 6 being the normal, sane countries and the +1 being the imbecile from the US, Trump will find he’s pushing a large, overloaded wheelbarrow up a very steep hill to get them to re-admit Russia, methinks!
ar
I suspect that colluding is putting it too strongly. Russia really does not need to be a member of the G7 which is pretty irrelevant anyway. Without China it is an absurd archaic forum when it comes to matters economic. It might be more relevant if it was recast as a North Atlantic forum,where Japan and maybe Italy leave but add in the major Scandinavians and Spain and Portugal.
As it stands now it is either a Allies of the USA (but without Australia) league or a statement of the economic powers of 1980.
Other fora have superseded the G7 – obviously the G20 but also BRICS which I guess is sort of its rival. OPEC is also still important.
Whatever G7 is without China it is a waste of time.
Julie B is morphing into Julie Beehive…
“The Age” has an article titled “Unfair: the human misery of franchising”
The first question is not asked
That being who purchased a franchise and why?
And then look at the funding of the purchase
So is the funding provided from retrenchment packages plus putting a mortgage over the family home?
How much real unemployment is franchising hiding?
Then, to run any business, protect the Balance Sheet, manage liquidity and return a wage to Self takes a skill set I would suggest many have not got
Risk is with the business proprietor, that risk assumed from 7 Eleven, Domino’s, Caltex, Mortgage Choice, Harvey Norman and the proprietors of those business names and models
Pretty lame effort from The West Australian on the SAS allegations.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/defence/welfare-concerns-for-aussie-soliders-as-investigation-drags-on-ng-b88860628z
“Our boys”(and some over hete regard the SAS as ours) will be stressed is the gist of it.
Not half as stressed as those who have been on the receiving end I would venture.
This is why I worry about the Coalition’s gungho attitude towards trade arrangements, especially with Ciobo “in charge”..
And with the image of the Parakeet of High Fashion, look at the advertising board behind her
Victorian Chamber of Industry and Commerce
Those who preach that one man’s pay increase is another man’s job
LOL!
Confessions @ #1832 Saturday, June 9th, 2018 – 10:17 am
The “G6+1” doesn’t tell the full story for me. I prefer “G7-1”, or if you want more history, “G8-2” to put some attention the loss.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/08/domestic-tourism-to-great-barrier-reef-falls-in-wake-of-coral-bleaching?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
Re Confessions @10:37. Even allowing that it is a transcript of replies at a press conference, what an incoherent ramble from Trump.
BRICS has no formal or informal institutional existence. It is simply an abbreviation for 5 economies – Brazil, Russia, India, China And South Africa – brought into fashion by Goldman Sachs. Its relevance as grouping concept is fading.
The G7 is a leadership forum. It can hardly make sense to include Putin in the forum when he is intent on disrupting the economic and political order the 7 have created and continue to sustain, despite the disruptions launched by Trump.
Late Riser:
It’s obvious that Trump is increasingly isolating the US from its historical allies. They must be wondering why Trump is so taken with anything Putin and Russia. And on that front, I found this tweet interesting.
Steve777:
It’s delightful, isn’t it? He makes Pauline sound like a scholar.
Maybe blonde helmet wigs are popular in WA. Or perhaps Julie has borrowed Michaelia’s wig. Have the two been seen together lately?
When Trump says Russia, I keep hearing ‘Roger’, who apparently should be part of every group. Trump’s protestations on the inclusion or exclusion of Russia seem to make no sense… something to do with ruling the world, I think.