Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor roars back in the latest Essential poll, despite a slump in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.

UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.

UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.

In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. John R agreed.

    There’s a lot to criticise the Libs for in NSW. But a lot of the stuff written on rail is a a tantrum from sooky old timers.

  6. And I would add volatility because people appreciate what they know

    So interest rates rising in 2007 then during an election campaign

    Now we have Trump and any association with Trump

    So we see the impact on Equity Markets including the DJIA Future Contracts in the lead up to the G7 meetings this weekend – and the name calling of the Leaders of the UK, Germany and Canada (so far)

    People tire of confrontation and Trump is confrontational – and unpredictable

  10. Yes Mundo is sitting in the booth to the left of Rex Douglas and I’m just down the hall at the Menzies House live blogging operation.

  11. mundo says:
    Friday, June 8, 2018 at 7:51 pm
    Sorry folks, I live in Tasmania…Labor will lose Braddon.

    In that case, you can make a lot of money by betting on the Liberal candidate. He’s at $2.35 compared with $1.55 for Labor on Centrebet (similar odds on the other betting websites).

    Don’t tell them who gave you this secret piece of advice.

  14. I see spruikers have stopped talking about Mayo, I wonder why.

    Turnbull has been up at Longman, the next poll there will show a drop in the LNP vote.

    Re. the stadia, one is possible, two is too much, three just unjustifiable.

  15. Why you never want to be a slave for 6 weeks:

    Aodhan Gregory
    ‏ @AodhanMcGregor
    4m4 minutes ago

    Aodhan Gregory Retweeted Mark Di Stefano

    I remember going for a job interview with Founder Daniel Cass some years ago. It was a mass interview held in a hotel bar near Broadcasting House. He said I’d have to give him 6 weeks unpaid “work experience” before they’d potentially hire me. I left there and then.

  17. As far as the future of Mayo is concerned, I think it’s pretty clear cut in the short to medium term. Sharkie is a right wing stooge and she will either defect to the Tories or lose to them. So not terribly complicated.

  19. Zoidlord @ #1764 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 7:04 pm

    Why you never want to be a slave for 6 weeks:

    Aodhan Gregory
    ‏ @AodhanMcGregor
    4m4 minutes ago

    Aodhan Gregory Retweeted Mark Di Stefano

    I remember going for a job interview with Founder Daniel Cass some years ago. It was a mass interview held in a hotel bar near Broadcasting House. He said I’d have to give him 6 weeks unpaid “work experience” before they’d potentially hire me. I left there and then.

    A converse experience of mine. We had an intern in our team earlier this year. The Cwlth funded intern program gives people aged 18-25 years 12 weeks work experience that leads to paid employment. In our team we seem to churn through admin support like you wouldn’t believe: maternity leave, better offers, resigning to travel around Australia, moving to Perth to follow partners. We’ve seen it all, and on average recruit admin staff at least twice or three times per year.

    My suggestion: let’s get an intern. Give he or she an embedding opportunity into the organisation, knowing that inside their 12 week placement it’s highly likely we’ll be recruiting admin. Bonus is that interns can apply for internal only vacancies. End result: this fabulous young woman who’d been excluded from the workplace because of discrimination around her mental health issues found a supportive work environment with us, and after 8 weeks interning was successful in applying for a fulltime permanent job as admin support when the last person left to move back to Perth. She fit right in and loves it. And best of all is that none of my team blink an eye at the fact that she often needs additional support to deal with her depression.

  20. What a heartwarming story, ‘fess. 🙂

    Maybe the young lady will have her Depression alleviated somewhat by being in a job?

  22. C@t:

    She’s totally grown into herself from what I’ve observed. The confidence she has gained, presumably because people simply believed in her is amazing.

    We’re meeting next week to review her probation period, but I’ve already started thinking about ways to develop her and help her realise her aspirations. She’s a gifted graphic designer, a skill she can hone with us, and with confidence and backing, escalate into her own business.

    In short, I’m not so down on internships after this experience. They can work with the right host agency.

  23. Ven @ #1713 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 6:11 pm

    Itzadream@2:21pm
    My apologies for wasting your time with a typo. I was posting from my smart phone like now. Hence, I could not copy and paste my previous post.
    BTW, my focus was not Israel or Netanyahu. It was that video in that article. US got only 1 out of 15 UN security votes and Nikky Haley threatening by saying that she is taking the names of other members.

    No worries Ven. I got the message about the UN, but missed the Haley juvenile threats.

  24. People tire of confrontation and Trump is confrontational – and unpredictable

    It’s how Trump rolls. He never tires of it and so will keep doing it and the New York Times editorial today nailed the reason why. 87% of Republican voters support Trump, no matter what he does or says.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/07/opinion/trump-republican-party.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

  25. In short, I’m not so down on internships after this experience. They can work with the right host agency.

    The Internship ‘works’ because the bosses aren’t willing to exploit the worker. 🙂

  26. Secretive and elite SAS soldiers grilled about alleged war crimes
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/secretive-and-elite-sas-soldiers-grilled-about-alleged-war-crimes-20180608-p4zkau.html

    I wonder where all this beyond bounds violence inside our special forces originated?
    Was it always there right from the beginning of the ‘Special Services’ in WWII? or has it gradually crept into their training and mindset during Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and all our subsequent conflicts?

  27. booleanbach
    It would have come in when they started to become ‘untouchable’. When there was nobody to say no. With no boundaries it was inevitable. Like Israel, no boundaries, can do anything they want because the global ‘800 lb gorilla’ will always back them up.

  28. Late Riser:

    The base assumption is that there is some underlying “true value” of the proportion of support for the different parties over the entire voting population, and that this true measure of support changes over time in response to prevailing political and economic conditions. Individual polls tell us a noisy point-in-time estimate of those underlying values, and poll aggregates like BludgerTrack seek to combine estimates from multiple polls to produce a less noisy estimate. An engineering equivalent might be the way in which GPS receivers combine a series of noisy range estimates to produce a more precise time-varying position estimate.

    As for how voting intentions change into the future, unless you have some insight into particular political or economic circumstances, the best model is likely a random walk.

  34. Cameron says:
    Friday, June 8, 2018 at 11:43 pm
    Trump openly displaying his subservience to Putin.

    He deserves nothing but contempt.

  35. @bemused

    Considering that @Zeh is posting helpful and you’re not is a big difference.

    No one cares about your ‘nonsense’ posts.

  36. Late Riser
    Unfortunately William hasn’t commented so I’ll try to wring the dim memory from my brain cells.
    55-45 equates to a 66% chance of winning 6 months before a poll. 55-45 6 weeks before a poll is 90%.
    You will notice Trump is just under 50/50 with the bookies. The polls are about 55-45 against him but more than 2 years out they aren’t worth much.

  37. Anyone committing suicide is incredibly sad but having Kate Spade and now Anthony Bourdain in one week just shows no matter how much talent, success and money you have, depression can be more powerful than them all.

  38. Barney in Go Dau @ #1615 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 9:51 am

    My own path is facilitated completely by this and I have multiple choices as to what I pursue next, something that is not available to the average Vietnamese person or people in many other Countries I have frequented!

    the path they gave to you is worn
    by the countless
    enslaved, confused, alone
    hopelessly gazing through that hole
    they’re fed their only light

  39. “Not just the story: now the ABC’s an election issue too”

    Bill Shorten rose in Federal Parliament on Thursday afternoon last week to give a rousing defence of the ABC. An hour later, an email arrived in ABC managing director Michelle Guthrie’s office from Communications Minister Mitch Fifield.

    “The Labor opposition with me as leader will defend the independence of the ABC, and a Labor government with me as Prime Minister will defend the independence of the ABC,” Mr Shorten told Parliament.

    Minister Fifield, by comparison, wanted to complain.

    The complaint? That several ABC journalists had retailed “the Labor lie” that the government may have chosen the dates of five looming federal by-elections for political reasons.

    …The minister’s reference to this as reporting a “Labor lie” lifts the first veil on the difference between someone complaining about a breach of editorial standards and someone making a partisan attack.

    Let’s be blunt here. On the day the date of the by-elections was announced by House Speaker Tony Smith, senior Cabinet ministers were joking with journalists about the fact the date would play havoc with Labor’s planned national conference.

    The Prime Minister’s office – not the Speaker’s office – was distributing data to show that there was absolutely nothing out of the ordinary in waiting so long to hold a by-election.

    Labor was, indeed, furious about the decision. But that doesn’t make it a “Labor lie” to say, in an analysis piece, that the decision was a political one.
    …
    By contrast to Minister Fifield, who has now lodged his sixth complaint to the ABC in five months, the government as a whole stays publicly silent about the antics of News Ltd, even as ministers and their advisers privately moan about them.

    From journalists who threaten to expose ministers as sexist for not giving them stories, to the sometimes shrill campaigns run by News Ltd papers against people and policies, the Coalition stays silent about the News agenda.

    It feeds stories to the News Ltd papers in the vain hope it will appease a beast which might otherwise turn against it, or in the deluded view that the papers carry an influence in key electorates that recent elections suggest is illusory.

    There is plenty for anyone to be irritated about at the ABC, just as you can be irritated by the antics of News Ltd.

    The difference, however, is that the ABC still strives to deliver a diversity of information, analysis and opinion to its audiences.

    https://outline.com/szUJC3

  42. Dan Rather trashes Trump at G7 for ‘coddling dictators while spitting in the faces of our best friends’

    Legendary journalist Dan Rather on Friday tore into President Donald Trump — who is attending the G7 conference — for getting chummy with North Korean strongman Kim Jong-un while giving the cold shoulder to longtime U.S. allies like France and Canada.

    In uncharacteristically blunt language, Rather bluntly stated on Facebook, “I never thought that the great post-World War II alliances between the United States and Europe and Canada would be undermined by a president who was inclined to coddle dictators while spitting in the faces of our best friends. ”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/dan-rather-trashes-trump-g7-coddling-dictators-spitting-faces-best-friends/

  43. Rob Reiner tells ‘The View’ that Trump has ‘oligarch envy’ — and the media isn’t taking the threat seriously

    Director Rob Reiner on Friday slammed the American media for not treating President Donald Trump’s candidacy like the serious threat that it was.

    Appearing on ABC’s “The View,” Reiner said the American media failed to convey the dangers of making a racist demagogue like Trump president.

    “I think that’s where he wants to be,” Reiner said. “I think he has king envy or oligarch envy. He looks at people like Putin and I think he would like to be that, which is Putin basically has a cut of everything that comes into that government.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/rob-reiner-tells-view-trump-oligarch-envy-media-isnt-taking-threat-seriously/

  44. 60 GOP House Seats Are In Districts That Went for Clinton or Obama

    Daily Kos Elections (DKE) has come out with some new statistics that should have Republicans shaking in their boots.

    According to DKE there are 60 congressional districts currently in Republican hands that voted at least once for either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for president. This is a huge statistic because it shows that voters in these districts are persuadable. They are not locked in as “red” districts that will be hard to turn blue.

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/06/08/60-gop-house-seats-are-in-districts-that-went-for-clinton-or-obama.html

  47. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Laura Tingle has come out with a great “up you” to Mitch Fifield. She nicely weaves in a contrast to News Ltd’s “antics”.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-09/laura-tingle-why-the-abc-is-a-political-football/9850360
    One of the most vicious campaigns in Australian media history is still playing out. Alan Austin has made a formal complaint to the Australian Press Council as The Australian continues its brutal attack on Julia Gillard.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-australian-continues-its-malicious-attacks-on-julia-gillard,11578
    A “must read” from Mike Seccombe on “Mitch Fifield, the IPA and the ABC”.
    https://outline.com/Vh9F2f
    It looks like Fairfax is going to go all the way on the Australian special forces.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/abdul-s-brother-went-out-to-buy-flour-he-never-came-home-20180607-p4zk38.html
    Paul Kaley reports that the SAS became so concerned about alleged misconduct by its elite troopers that in late 2015 then SAS commander Major General Jeff Sengelman invited every member of the regiment to write to him personally about alleged misconduct.
    https://outline.com/wq22xB
    The SMH editorial has its say on the matter.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/behind-the-lines-not-beyond-the-law-20180608-p4zkd6.html
    Marise Payne says that the war crimes claims are being fully investigated.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/defence-minister-vows-war-crimes-claims-are-being-fully-investigated-20180608-p4zkfz.html
    Paul Bongiorno has a very good contribution this weekend on the Barnaby Joyce fallout and other things happening in Canberra.
    https://outline.com/K638uy
    Ross Gittins tells Morrison that the economy has not “taken off” and pulls apart his overblown rhetoric.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/sorry-scott-it-s-not-clear-the-economy-has-lift-off-20180608-p4zka9.html
    And Stephen Koukoulas tells us why concern is mounting for Australia’s economic outlook.
    https://thekouk.com/item/610-why-concern-is-mounting-for-australia-s-economic-outlook.html
    An intelligence taskforce has been set up to safeguard the super Saturday by-elections but division is brewing in cabinet.
    https://outline.com/VXy72V
    Karen Middleton has the good oil here as she writes that having taken a board position with a Swedish arms manufacturer, former Defence minister David Johnston is receiving an undisclosed sum as the government’s defence export advocate. And the government is concealing it.
    https://outline.com/PMDY62
    Jonathan Freedland writes that Trump is a useless negotiator, and Kim Jong-un will know that.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/08/trump-master-negotiator-meeting-kim-jong-un-art-of-deal
    Meanwhile Paul Manafort has been hit will new charges filed by Mueller.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/08/paul-manafort-russia-trump-robert-mueller-obstruction-of-justice
    This is a splendid and humorous article from Guy Rundle on Michaelia Cash and the government’s attempts to kill Bill.
    https://outline.com/ZEzN7p
    Jemima Whyte tells us how, one by one, the unwritten rules of Australia’s clubby capital markets are being brought to light, forever changing the way bankers and their clients operate, and how they make money.
    https://outline.com/rMsJLf
    A petulant Trump has cut his G7 trip short after trading insults with Macron and Trudeau.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-calls-for-russia-to-be-readmitted-to-g-7-20180608-p4zkgw.html
    More than 100 academics have signed an open letter opposing the Ramsay Centre for Western Civilisation’s involvement with Sydney University, saying the institution was not a “training institute for a future political cadre”. They seem to have worked that mob out pretty well!
    https://www.smh.com.au/education/sydney-university-academics-label-ramsay-centre-european-supremacism-20180608-p4zkf5.html
    Peter van Olselen says that the Ramsay Centre has Tony Abbott to blame for ANU’s rejection.
    https://outline.com/ATvHtR
    We in Mayo are right on the job! Delicious.
    https://outline.com/MsSxuv
    Pru Goward defends her voting against the abortion clinic harassment bill.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/i-support-the-right-to-abortion-but-not-the-safe-access-zones-bill-20180608-p4zkbz.html
    A fired-up Van Badham writes “Who says no to safety? Only those who want a bully pulpit on our footpaths.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/09/who-says-no-to-safety-only-those-who-want-a-bully-pulpit-on-our-footpaths
    And where are the men in the pro-choice movement?
    https://www.smh.com.au/lifestyle/life-and-relationships/where-are-the-men-in-the-pro-choice-movement-20180608-p4zk88.html
    Does Dutton have a secret propaganda unit?
    https://outline.com/6pcDGR
    Jacqui Maley goes right off over the use of police drug sniffer dogs on young people. She has other ideas on where they might have more success.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/police-off-the-scent-when-it-comes-to-drugs-20180607-p4zk4u.html
    The Australian Taxation Office is set to crack down on the misuse of a key income-splitting method commonly used by traditional partnerships in law, accounting and other professional service firms after shutting down another splitting technique used by partners in this year’s budget.
    https://outline.com/R3pEG4
    With Brexit is Britain’s dash for independence a road to failure?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/brexit-bust-britain-s-dash-for-independence-is-on-road-to-failure-20180608-p4zk7t.html
    Adele Ferguson tells us about the human misery of the inherently unfair franchising industry.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/inherently-unfair-the-human-misery-of-franchising-20180608-p4zkfn.html
    The owners of two Jamaica Blue franchised coffee shops have told a parliamentary hearing that running the businesses was “a constant ongoing battle” with the franchise owner that ended with them losing both stores.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/06/08/tales-hardship-franchise-hearing/
    Child protection investigators have begun contacting former students of schools on Sydney’s northern beaches in the early 1980s, amid allegations teachers regularly engaged in sex with teenage schoolgirls. What a free for all!
    https://outline.com/6WxvTq
    Jacqui Maley with a bit of Labor leadershit.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-shorten-and-the-leadership-question-that-won-t-go-away-20180608-p4zka2.html
    Peter Hartcher on the dangers of playing identity politics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/utes-and-sexist-tax-cuts-identity-politics-is-a-dangerous-game-to-play-20180608-p4zkeq.html
    Crispin Hull writes about the scourge of plastic in the marine environment.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/life-and-death-in-plastic-20180607-p4zk2t.html
    It’s easy to think of One Nation as a Ponzi scheme, but it is, in fact, worse. It is a phoenix Ponzi scheme — a Ponzi scheme risen from the ashes.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/hanson-burston-and-the-never-ending-one-nation-ponzi-scheme,11580
    Daryl Dixon explains how Labor’s proposed franking credit changes miss the bigger picture.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/tax/proposed-franking-credit-changes-miss-the-bigger-picture-20180608-p4zkah.html
    Australian opponents of the live sheep trade need to reflect on their “moral compass” because if the local trade is ultimately banned, animals from other countries will be exported to the Middle East with fewer safeguards, according to the agriculture minister, David Littleproud.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/09/live-export-opponents-should-check-their-moral-compass-minister-says
    Michael West has an excellent article on how big companies crush dissent.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/crushing-dissent/
    Commonwealth Bank’s $700 million fine will end up punishing its customers.
    https://theconversation.com/commonwealth-banks-700-million-fine-will-end-up-punishing-its-customers-97918
    Fresh from a successful trial of online ordering for a select range of special orders, home improvement giant Bunnings is preparing to offer its shoppers the ability to ‘click and collect’ their purchases.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/06/08/click-collect-bunnings/
    Oh look! Mehajer’s out of jail. How long for this time then?
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/salim-mehajer-granted-bail-in-nsw-court-20180608-p4zkgq.html

    Cartoon Corner

    A good one rom Paul Zanetti today.

    Cathy Wilcox and our strong trade relations with China.

    Matt Golding on Jane Fonda’s visit.

    Glen Le Lievre and the culture clash.

    A nice one from Mark Knight.

    And one on the same subject from Roy Taylor.

    FDOTM goes to the Ramsay Centre.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jun/08/welcome-to-the-ramsay-centre-for-the-cheering-on-of-western-civilisation
    There are lots of excellent cartoons in here!
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-9-2018-20180608-h1160p.html


  48. Confessions says:
    Friday, June 8, 2018 at 9:43 pm

    C@t:
    .
    In short, I’m not so down on internships after this experience. They can work with the right host agency.

    She still should be paid.

  49. Australian opponents of the live sheep trade need to reflect on their “moral compass” because if the local trade is ultimately banned, animals from other countries will be exported to the Middle East with fewer safeguards, according to the agriculture minister, David Littleproud.

    Does this mean we lower all our standards on all platforms? That’s the excuse always given for doing nothing.

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