The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.
UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.
UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.
In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.
Wow!
And are naughty Laborites giving Turnbull false positives so the Libs keep TopCat on his throne?
Finally, I have solved the riddle: Voters prefer Malcolm Turnbull as the leader to send the Coalition to self-destruction, hence his strong standing as preferred PM and the horrible, pathetic, disastrous performance of the Coalition in the ultimately most important statistic: the 2PP vote….
Poor Malcolm, voters must really hate him to desire such a horrible fate for him….
…. naughty voters!…. 🙂
Good result;
Popular leader, unpopular party, when the facade falls it will be a glorious mess for all to see.
Labor calling in Bob Carr to do $990 a head “fundraisers” in the Chinese community according to the Telegraph.Shocking and Sad !
Apropos last night.
A good critique on the last Byzantine days of the Obeid kleptocracy is Rodney Cavalier’s “Power Crisis” available on Amazon
It’s not absurd to imagine Trump igniting a second Civil War — here’s why
Imagine that an impeachment resolution against Trump passes the House. Trump claims it’s the work of the “deep state.” Fox News’s Sean Hannity demands every honest patriot take to the streets. Rightwing social media call for war. As insurrection spreads, Trump commands the armed forces to side with the “patriots.”
A second civil war? Probably not. But the way Trump and his defenders are behaving, it’s not absurd to imagine serious social unrest. That’s how low he’s taken us.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/not-absurd-imagine-trump-igniting-second-civil-war-heres/
‘It’s subpoena time’: WaPo columnist says Mueller has waited long enough — and must drop the hammer on Trump
Is it time to slap President Donald Trump with a subpoena to testify in front of special counsel Robert Mueller’s grand jury?
Washington Post columnist Ruth Marcus thinks so — and she says that Mueller has been more than patient in trying to negotiate with Trump’s legal team.
In particular, Marcus argues that Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani’s most recent talk show appearances — in which he said that there’s a “high bar” Mueller’s team must reach “in terms of convincing us that they’re fair” — show that Trump is not likely to sit down with the special counsel’s team willingly.
“I think Mueller may be getting the message: Absent a subpoena, and maybe even with one, Trump isn’t answering his questions,” she writes.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/subpoena-time-wapo-columnist-says-mueller-waited-long-enough-must-drop-hammer-trump/
Fox News’ Shep Smith brutally fact-checks Trump’s self-pardon claim by reading the Constitution aloud — on live TV
After a day of confusing statements by Donald Trump and the White House, Fox News’ Shep Smith unequivocally declared that his reporting on the current administration is “without fear or favor.”
“We want to report without fear or favor and hold truth to power,” the host said following the president’s outlandish claim that he can pardon himself in case of indictment. “No matter who it is that’s in power.”
He proceeded to read from the U.S. Constitution’s clause about presidential pardons.
“He shall have the power to grant reprieves and pardons for offenses against the United States,” Article II, section 2 reads. “Except in cases of impeachment.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/fox-news-shep-smith-brutally-fact-checks-trumps-self-pardon-claim-reading-constitution-aloud-live-tv/
Oakeshott Country @ #5 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 6:44 am
Didn’t you also pick up from last night that No. One. Cares. About. Cavalier?
Trump Tweets He Has ‘Absolute Right’ To Pardon Himself
Twitter is on fire this morning after President Donald Trump sent out a tweet at 5:25 a.m. saying he has the “absolute right” to pardon himself. He said his position is supported by “numerous legal scholars,” but none of them can be found, and if they do exist they are keeping quiet.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/06/04/trump-tweets-he-has-absolute-right-to-pardon-himself.html
Well, that’s a bit of a swing back from the last Essential, which looked like it was heading in the direction of the Coalition.
Good.
54-46! Thanks Barnaby.
Thinking about Joyce, he is still a problem. He will not want to resign unless he has a sinecure to go to. But giving him one at public expense will be unpopular. If he stays both preselection and the campaign will be ugly, even if the seat is held. And he clearly will not shut up while he is in any office. There is a book coming, so he intends to remain about as private as the Kardashians.
Is that all you got EDJ?
Bernard Keane
Verified account @BernardKeane
2m2 minutes ago
Bernard Keane Retweeted Paddy Manning
And @JoshFrydenberg, @KellyODwyer’s predecessor as Minister for Attacking Industry Super, also has his super in an industry fund. Rank hypocrites.
Is this the Banarby bounce, or is that still to come?
And Tony Abbott thinks Rank and File is bad:
Michael Koziol
Verified account @michaelkoziol
21h21 hours ago
Tony Abbott: “The Labor rank and file, they don’t really believe in protecting our country because so many of them are embarrassed about what makes our country great, and they think if we dilute our Australian-ness, that’s a good thing.” #auspol via @2GB873
Despite the empty threat in this nonsense article, Australia has a huge trade imbalance with the USA and has little to lose in taxing large internet companies like Google and afacebook. The EU has reached the same conclusion.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/potentially-dangerous-ex-us-official-warns-against-tax-on-amazon-google-20180604-p4zjdz.html
Sarah Joseph
@profsarahj
57s58 seconds ago
So #Barnaby has the support of @TonyAbbottMHR. Poor fella is doomed.
Just highlights how much the PPM impacts on voting intention, doesn’t it Rex!!! 🙂
When did Tony Abbott become the spokesman, and crystal ball reader and mind reader, for the Rank and File of the Labor Party? He can’t buy a clue about the Labor Party because it is alien to everything he believes in. We actually love our country and don’t want to see it sold off to the kleptocrats and spivs who only want to exploit everyone for their own gain. And that’s just the beginning of where Tony Abbott and Labor diverge!
Zoid
That only confirms Abbott is nuts. Is it the Anglo thing he thinks makes us great? He does not realise half the country has non-Anglo origins. I suppose the spirit of mateship and egalitarianism is something Abbott despises. He just wanted to erect another British class system in the colony, with himself in the upper class.
@Socrates
Yup, but we knew that Abbott is Nuts from day one.
Q. Is Senator Cash in touch with reality?
The arrogant lack of accountability pushed by the Coalition at last week at estimates through Cash and the now departed Lloyd might be filtering through. Add a good dollop of Joyce publicity over “the interview’ and you can build a case for movement in the polls.
The Royal Commission percolates the anger and disappointments of the community and produces a heady brew of disaffection with the current Government. The One Nation fracas may be illuminating to some that they are just a bunch of misfits unable to produce or promote a coherent political message.
The Government’s “Kill Bill” strategy might be having an impact. However, it doesn’t impact on the way the voters vote. long may they continue!
Or, it might be an outlier.
Barney in Go Dau @ #19 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:34 am
I found a photo of Rex battling the reality that PPM doesn’t matter:
🙂
Good morning everybody! Ahhh, I love the smell of a 54-46 to Labor Poll in the morning.
I’m hollidayimg in Port Douglas this week before I trash myself doing the Cairns Ironman Triathlon next Sunday.
Weather is superb – warm during the day (not too hot), cool during the evening. Went to Mossman Gorge yesterday. Cape Tribulation today. Something involving crocodiles tomorrow.
GG
John Lloyd resigning is very much a Canberra bubble issue. I doubt most people know we have such a job nevermind his name.
KayJay
Or anyone else in a kind mood…
When I turned my computer on this morning I saw this message:
“CPU not detected”
There were a few other words and then, at the bottom,
F1 boot.
So I pressed F1 and all the normal screens returned.
Help!
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Katherine Murphy comments on the latest 54/46 Essential poll.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/05/essential-poll-labor-jumps-to-eight-point-lead-as-joyce-scandal-revives
Adele Ferguson reports that one of the country’s biggest mortgage brokers, Mortgage Choice, is in damage control as it faces an uprising from its franchisees on the back of a business model that is pushing many into financial ruin, depression and cutting corners on arranging loans. Yet another franchise arrangement goes bad!
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/i-feel-like-a-caged-animal-life-inside-mortgage-broking-giant-20180604-p4zjeo.html
“Interest rates are lower than ever. So why is owning a home harder than ever?”, asks Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2018/jun/05/interest-rates-are-lower-than-ever-so-why-is-owning-a-home-harder-than-ever
Giles Parkinson writes about how South Australia is riding renewables boom to become an electricity exporter.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/05/south-australia-rides-renewables-boom-to-become-electricity-exporter
David Crowe tells us that now Pauline Hanson is facing an escalating war with One Nation colleague Brian Burston that could see her sanctioned in Parliament for breaching Senate rules by trying to punish him for refusing to vote the way she wants. Oh dear!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/one-nation-senator-hits-back-at-pauline-hanson-with-intimidation-claim-20180604-p4zjf4.html
Hanson’s ever-changing policy approach reflects the PHONies’ pretence of being for the battlers while aspiring to be part of the establishment, writes John Passant.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/pauline-hansons-one-nation-implodes–again,11565
The Australian tells us how the Nationals are lining up to push Barnaby out.
https://outline.com/LvJA8b
Phil Coorey says that Nationals MPs are seething at their former leader Barnaby Joyce for saying “scum of the earth people” within the party pressured his partner Vikki Campion to abort their baby.
https://outline.com/trZ57G
And Simon Benson gives him a right royal serve.
https://outline.com/LvTHBp
Here’s what Trump’s right wing judicial appointments will be doing for quite some time yet. The Supreme Court handed a victory on narrow grounds to a Colorado Christian baker who refused for religious reasons to make a wedding cake for a gay couple, but stopped short of setting a major precedent.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/supreme-court-rules-for-baker-in-same-sex-case-20180605-55ft8.html
Senior Nationals have scoffed at an allegation made by Barnaby Joyce and his partner Vikki Campion that she was told in 2017 to terminate her pregnancy if she wanted to work in federal politics again. Well they would, wouldn’t they!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/nationals-deny-being-scum-of-the-earth-over-claimed-abortion-pressure-20180604-p4zjcu.html
Mark Kenny traces Barnaby’s political journey from asset to liability.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-political-reckoning-joyce-s-journey-from-asset-to-liability-20180604-p4zjeh.html
Paul Bongiorno simply says that Barnaby is finished. He says it is his record of utterly flawed judgement and self-interest that has convinced his party room and branch members in New England they would all be better served if he gave up on his tattered career.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/06/04/barnaby-joyce-interview-fallout-government/
NSW is making the biggest overhaul in decades to the way it tenders for and delivers infrastructure projects to create a more “collaborative” relationship with contractors in response to billion-dollar contract disputes and high bidding costs, Premier Gladys Berejiklian will reveal today.
https://outline.com/Mw3sEL
Peter Hartcher expands on how the world’s great powers are stepping up on China.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/great-powers-stepping-up-on-china-20180604-p4zjai.html
With the incredible rate of growth the sharing economy has experienced over the past few years it is little wonder that policy makers have been left playing catch up. Technology has enabled everyday people to unlock otherwise lazy assets such as their car or home to new possibilities.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/something-rotten-with-delays-to-home-sharing-laws-20180604-p4zje9.html
The SMH editorial says that modern Australia can celebrate pre-European Indigenous heritage without difficulty, and it can celebrate most (but not all) significant events since about 1840, but the settlement or invasion era between 1770 and 1840 is too sensitive. So how, it wonders, should we mark in 2020 the 250th anniversary of Captain Cook’s landing.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/captain-cook-s-legacy-must-be-faced-head-on-20180604-p4zjfg.html
Wow! Read this from John Birmingham who concludes that the old division between capital and labour isn’t as descriptive and explanatory as it once was. Instead we are being sorted into a vast herd of impotent human feedstock, and a much smaller, insanely wealthy and powerful elite of the apex predators who live off them.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/politics-is-broken-because-the-whole-system-is-broken-20180604-p4zjed.html
And it’s good riddance to John Lloyd!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/04/john-lloyd-public-service-commissioner-quits-amid-questions-over-conduct
Stephen Bartholomeusz explains what’s in store for the new CEO of CBA.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-s-700m-fine-an-acceptable-price-to-bury-austrac-issue-20180604-p4zjb5.html
Rosemary Sinclair says that on a day of reckoning on July 1 consumers in most states should expect to see savings in their electricity bills for the first time in years.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/day-of-judgment-on-power-prices-nears-20180604-p4zjbk.html
Theresa May has told Donald Trump that US tariffs on EU steel are “unjustified and deeply disappointing”, speaking by phone with the American president for the first time since the levies were imposed last week.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jun/04/may-tells-trump-that-us-tariffs-on-eu-steel-are-unjustified
How bad is this? High school-aged athletes are being bribed with alcohol, drugs and prostitutes by high-rolling criminal syndicates trying to fix matches and launder dirty cash. A high-powered Turnbull Government taskforce has been established in response.
https://outline.com/SLpZVM
A former senior US Treasury official has warned the Turnbull government against introducing a 3 per cent turnover-based tax on digital players like Facebook and Google, saying it would discriminate against American companies and is bad policy based on politics rather than economics.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/potentially-dangerous-ex-us-official-warns-against-tax-on-amazon-google-20180604-p4zjdz.html
Michael West has a good look at Exchange Traded Funds.
https://www.michaelwest.com.au/etf-fightback-passive-manager-attacks-the-active-myths/
Qantas boss Alan Joyce says Australians should expect to pay higher airfares off the back of increasing oil prices, but has assured customers he is taking other steps to absorb some of the cost increases.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-warns-higher-fares-on-the-way-as-oil-spike-hits-airlines-20180604-p4zjf2.html
How changes to UK law may provide more dual citizenship drama
https://theconversation.com/how-changes-to-uk-law-may-provide-more-dual-citizenship-drama-97256
The murder trial of David Harold Eastman is expected to start next week. He was arraigned before nearly 500 potential jurors at Albert Hall on Monday morning. Eastman is accused of the 1989 assassination of Assistant Federal Police Commissioner Colin Winchester.
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/eastman-trial-500-potential-jurors-empanelled-at-albert-hall-20180604-p4zjet.html
A new front has developed in the battle between Coles and Woolworths as both chains rush to implement ambitious new environmental and sustainability targets.
https://www.afr.com/business/retail/woolworths-and-coles-vying-for-leadership-in-sustainability-20180601-h10vio
If you are like me and get frustrated when being caught in long and unstructured queuing then read this.
https://theconversation.com/fed-up-with-always-being-in-the-slow-queue-thats-why-queues-are-being-designed-out-92514
Cartoon Corner
Nice work from Peter Broelman -0 and have a look how he’s depicted Michaelia!
Paul Zanetti puts the boot into Barnaby.
At home with Barnaby. Glen Le Lievre.
Mark Knight and personality politics.
Jon Kudelka on the Joyce interview.
And Alan Moir has Barnaby asking for some privacy.
David Pope sees off the IPA plant.
https://static.ffx.io/images/$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/b681f1f2782fc5d71630313f2525bb330729a1fe
More in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-june-5-20180604-h10ymz.html
I think it’s more likely that the govt is a rolling omnishambles, lurching from one crisis or mismanagement to the next.
I doubt most people would even know who John Lloyd is.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #27 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:52 am
Hi refusal to answer questions at Estimates isn’t. It re-inforces the Government are arrogant and unaccountable.
Singapore
Australia:
Yep. So much in common.
C@t-
“When did Tony Abbott become the spokesman, and crystal ball reader and mind reader, for the Rank and File of the Labor Party? He can’t buy a clue about the Labor Party because it is alien to everything he believes in. We actually love our country and don’t want to see it sold off to the kleptocrats and spivs who only want to exploit everyone for their own gain. And that’s just the beginning of where Tony Abbott and Labor diverge!”
Quite right! I maintain that to be a Liberal Party member is to hate Australia. To hate egalitarianism that underpins the best of our nature. To hate multiculturalism – in the most successful multicultural society in the world. To hate our natural environment, only seeking to exploit it for the benefit of the kleptocracy.
lizzie @ #28 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:53 am
It’s the Computer equivalent of leaving the iron on.
Jake Tapper draws together the latest Trump lies and ridiculous statements.
Well well well. Where does former NAB executive Kelly O’Dwyer put her superannuation ? In one of those glorious retail funds or those evil industry funds ? Well of course, an industry fund.
https://outline.com/gsGMGC
lizzie @ #28 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:53 am
Do you have automatic updates on your computer for your CPU? Or it may be that it is not getting supported by new Drivers any more because it is too old for the programmers to continue writing to it.
Anyhoo, a r will likely know all about it. 🙂
Confessions says: Tuesday, June 5, 2018 at 8:05 am
Jake Tapper draws together the latest Trump lies and ridiculous statements.
The President’s assertion that he can pardon himself comes in the context of a number of stunning assertions by his lawyers… https://cnn.it/2Hl9CyR
******************************************************************************
What superior economic manager spends $50,000,000,000 on the NBN and even before it is fully implemented has to restrict its customers from using it?
Thanks BK.
From Murphy, a rehash of the omnishambles of the govt.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/05/essential-poll-labor-jumps-to-eight-point-lead-as-joyce-scandal-revives
PhoenixRed:
I love Giuliani’s explanation for why they’re all over the place on the Don Jnr memo: “Our recollection keeps changing.”
You gotta laugh.
I hope the complaint against John Lloyd is still resolved after his departure. He will be leaving office with a generous nestegg from four years in a job paying $600k. Taxpayers are entitled to know if he should keep it.
Probably a whitewash – but – Another person living to regret having anything to do with Trump
Disgraced White House physician Ronny ‘Candyman’ Jackson will be investigated in Pentagon probe
The U.S. Defense Department’s inspector general has opened an investigation into misconduct allegations against White House physician Ronny Jackson, the inspector general’s office said in a statement on Monday.
President Donald Trump nominated Jackson to be veterans affairs secretary in March, but Jackson withdrew from consideration a month later amid allegations he had overseen a hostile work environment as White House physician, drank on the job and allowed the overprescribing of drugs.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/disgraced-white-house-physician-ronny-candyman-jackson-will-investigated-pentagon-probe/
lizzie @ #28 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:53 am
Sorry Lizzie, I have been having a lazy lie in and just woken which is vastly preferable to not waking.
I have had a quick google and the problem may be a CPU fan or other fan error.
If you have restarted your computer and all is functioning then possibly best to just carry on.
Otherwise turn the computer off.
Open the case, dust the fans using a soft small paint brush.
Restart the computer adopting a prayerful attitude.
If all is well be glad and rejoice.
Take note of any words – instructions – details on the screen.
Take note of advice from others.
☮☕
C@t and GG
Thanks for the responses. 🙁
Andrew_Earlwood,
The basic fallacy at the heart of the Liberal Party and other like-minded Tory parties, is the supremacy of the ‘individual’. Or, in Australian parlance, ‘I’m alright, Jack, bugger you!’
No concern for anyone doing it tough. That’s their fault, apparently. Not the fault of governments of their ilk and their policies.
No concern for the environment, as so many of them these days are religious nutjobs (and I don’t include GG in that cohort), who are delusional in the belief that ‘God’s great plan’ will sort it.
The final ignominy is that the Prosperity Gospel has let the Money Makers into the temple and so Conservative politics and the people who populate it can now excuse just about any egregious and anti-egalitarian policy with a shrug of the shoulders and a wave of the Good Book.
Not to mention the generally wildly divergent social policies of the parties.
So far away from Labor and what it stands for it’s not funny.
KayJay might be onto something with the fan issue as well. Have you cleaned them lately, lizzie?
Socrates @ #42 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 5:14 am
Nup, he he will no longer be in the Public Service, so there will be no reason to look into it.
This mob have closed off other investigations for similar reasons. 🙁
Confessions says: Tuesday, June 5, 2018 at 8:13 am
PhoenixRed:
I love Giuliani’s explanation for why they’re all over the place on the Don Jnr memo: “Our recollection keeps changing.”
You gotta laugh.
**************************************************************
Let alone the TRUTH – They can’t even get their LIES straight !!!!!