Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor roars back in the latest Essential poll, despite a slump in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.

UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.

UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.

In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 42
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  1. Reagan daughter Patti Davis: Donald Trump is ‘sullying the dream that America once was’

    On the eve of the anniversary of her father’s June 5, 2004, death, Davis has penned an opinion piece in the Washington Post, in which she writes that Reagan would be “pretty horrified at where we’ve come to” as a nation.

    “He would be appalled and heartbroken,” Davis says, “at a Congress that refuses to stand up to a president who not only seems ignorant of the Constitution, but who also attempts at every turn to dismantle and mock our system of checks and balances.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/reagan-daughter-patti-davis-donald-trump-sullying-dream-america/

  2. Interesting outakes on Newstart from Essential:

    Voters were also asked a number of questions this fortnight about the Newstart payment. At budget time there was a push to increase the unemployment benefit – a campaign the government rebuffed. Labor is also not locked in to boosting the payment, promising a review if it wins the next federal election.

    Quiz: how much do you know about surviving on Newstart?
    Read more
    Half the sample were aware the payment was less than $300 a week. Half the sample thought the current level of the payment was too low, with only 9% saying it was too high, 26% believing it was about right and 15% undecided.

    People most likely to think it was too low were Labor voters (63%), Greens voters (59%) and workers on incomes under $1,000 per week (62%). Coalition voters and higher-income earners were more likely to think the payment was too high.

    A clear majority of the sample (68%) agreed Newstart should be increased and 70% agreed with the statement, “a fair government would raise the rate of Newstart, youth allowance and related payments to ensure everybody has enough to live on while they look for paid work”.

    People were also asked to nominate an income they would need in order to live comfortably. On average, respondents thought they would need a weekly income of at least $660.

  3. KayJay

    There is NO WAY I will open the computer box.

    I’ve backed up my current docs.

    Could the problem be the temperature overnight???

  4. Murdoch tells the Nationals to get rid of Barnaby (EDIT: because he’s giving the RWNJ brand a bad name):

    Joyce can jump now or lose later
    7:35AMSIMON BENSON
    Barnaby Joyce has inflicted unquantifiable damage on the government. But none of this has registered with the bloke.

    Nationals move to oust Barnaby from seat
    BEN PACKHAM, SIMON BENSON
    Barnaby Joyce has been urged to consider his ­political future amid a push for John Anderson to challenge in New England.

  6. Lizzie

    Some interesting information regarding high and low temperature problems for computers.
    http://smallbusiness.chron.com/temperature-affect-performance-computer-components-28197.html

    Desktop computers are very, very dirty machines. The dust accumulates and builds up.

    Nevertheless, most computers continue operating for years without any cleaning whatever.

    I will post a couple of picture late showing the inside of my Internet machine.
    It looks like a rat’s nest of wires with a couple of boxes and a few fans and other bits and bobs.

    Is your computer functioning at the moment ❓

    Sorry, good morning. 🌅

  7. I logged in this morning with some trepidation at what the Essential poll might bring after its 51-49 last week and bingo – 54-46. My first thought was outlier. But allowing for rounding up, 54-46 is pretty much within the MOE for 52-48 isn’t it, just as 51-49 was? So Labor is still well placed to win the next election according to both Newspoll and Essential.

    You have to laugh. After the previous Essential poll had the Coalition PV at 40% one or two of the commentariat saw this as hugely significant. The government was back in the game they said with a PV in the forties. I wonder what they will say now that it has dipped to 36% (yet to be confirmed) in the space of two weeks.

  8. Robert ReichVerified account@RBReich
    3h3 hours ago
    The President of the United States is threatening to pardon himself in order to undermine an independent investigation. His lawyers are arguing that obstruction of justice doesn’t apply to him. And the governing party watches silently from Congress. This is a recipe for tyranny.

  9. Funny how so many commentators are lining up to tell us what a flawed personality Joyce is.

    Pity they never mentioned it while he was rising through the ranks to become deputy prime minister.

    It is Abbott revisited.

    Can’t wait for the rewrite of the history of Malcom Turnbull.

  10. Darn @ #56 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 8:43 am

    I logged in this morning with some trepidation at what the Essential poll might bring after its 51-49 last week and bingo – 54-46. My first thought was outlier. But allowing for rounding up, 54-46 is pretty much within the MOE for 52-48 isn’t it, just as 51-49 was? So Labor is still well placed to win the next election according to both Newspoll and Essential.

    You have to laugh. After the previous Essential poll had the Coalition PV at 40% one or two of the commentariat saw this as hugely significant. The government was back in the game they said with a PV in the forties. I wonder what they will say now that it has dipped to 36% (yet to be confirmed) in the space of two weeks.

    Darn

    As I posted a few weeks ago, I never get much interested in any polls that jump by 2% up or down. That is MOE. If it stays down for several polls then I factor it in. Which is of course what William does in his tracker but in a much, much, much more sophisticated way.

  12. KayJay

    Yes, computer is functioning normally after “boot F1”.
    (Actually, the same thing happened yesterday morning, too.)

  13. “Labor calling in Bob Carr to do $990 a head “fundraisers” in the Chinese community according to the Telegraph.Shocking and Sad !”…

    So, Edwina, if it’s not “Kill Bill” it’s “Kill Bob”…. methink you and the Libs/Nats are fast running out of “ammunitions”…. 🙂

  14. Pete Evans’s diet is not actually a ketogenic diet. A paleo diet is not a ketogenic diet. A ketogenic diet is not a high protein diet. It is a very low carb, high fat, moderate protein diet.

    People should be very careful of fads without doing the background research.

    I am not going to get into another argument over this because those stories, and the wowser (uneducated) commentary completely miss the actuality because they latch onto vague second-hand concepts.

    If anyone really wants actual information, they can go to Drs Steve Phinney/ Dr Volek’s Virta research website for so good science on actual ketogenic diets and how they work.

  15. Just highlights how different volcanic eruptions can be.

    We have seen the relative calm, order of the Hawaii fissure eruptions with the lava’s slow march across a relatively flat landscape and then you have this where people have little warning and if you’re in the the wrong place at the wrong time then there’s basically nothing you can do about it!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/04/guatemala-fuego-volcano-erupts-dead-missing

  16. Confessions says: Tuesday, June 5, 2018 at 8:50 am

    phoenixRed:

    Have a listen to Steve Schmidt unload on Republicans and Team Trump!

    https://twitter.com/KasieDC/status/1003421119091654657

    *************************************************

    Decent GOP stalwarts like Steve Schmidt, John McCain, Rick Wilson etc etc …… are trying their best to restore some dignity and integrity to their party …….but ….. they still seem like voices in the wilderness with craven cowards like Ryan, McConnell etc prepared to do SFA to stop the rot

  17. Rossmcg

    Truffles will be cast as a lion fighting for all those ‘values’ he had before getting the top job. A hero thwarted by dark forces and absolutely the worst luck ever . Not a failure but a victim of circumstances beyond his control. :Barf: emoticon.

  19. At the top left is a case cooling fan.
    Just to the right of that fan is another smaller fan which is mounted on the CPU. Obviously a CPU cooling fan.
    At the bottom left is a silver box which is the power supply with lots of lead – all at low power D.C.
    This box also has a cooling fan which gets very dirty.

    There is also another fan on the far bottom right which provides cooling for hard drives .
    Many computers have other fans.

    Now that I have examined this shambles I will turn it off and clean and clear it.
    But – ono momento –

    From Mr. Google.
    Hi,

    The CMOS battery on the motherboard is likely dead and needs to be replaced. You get the prompt because the system BIOS no longer receives a trickle of power from this battery to retain custom settings, so by default it prompts you to create them (should any exist) each time you power on. Replacing this nickel-sized battery is fairly easy, and they can be obtained at most stores that sell batteries for watches, garage door openers, etc.

    ***********************************************************

    I will post another picture in a few moments.

    If this is the problem then you may relax for the moment and figure out how to get a friend, neighbour or small child to help you with opening the case and replacing the battery.

    Removing the power cord removes any risk of electrical harm to you.

    You are helping me to today as I delay my house cleaning.

  20. Alpo says:
    Tuesday, June 5, 2018 at 8:57 am
    “Labor calling in Bob Carr to do $990 a head “fundraisers” in the Chinese community according to the Telegraph.Shocking and Sad !”…

    So, Edwina, if it’s not “Kill Bill” it’s “Kill Bob”…. methink you and the Libs/Nats are fast running out of “ammunitions”….

    It’s also an insult aimed at all people of Chinese heritage who dare to support Labor (as opposed to those who support the Liberals).

    Amazingly, people of Chinese heritage have a diverse range of political views, in line with the population as a whole.

  21. Unfortunately for the USA Trump & the Repugs are stacking not just the Supreme Court but also a great many other US federal courts. The views held by many of these ‘candidates’ are really extreme on lots of issues and yet they will be making decisions that effect the lives of Americans and their society well into the future.
    This bias will remain long after Trump has gone (for decades even)

  24. Lizzie

    The CMOS battery can be seen at the top right of the case about 3/4 along. It’s the little round silver doover with a + sign showing. It can easily be removed and replaced. In my computer this battery is a CR2032.

  25. jen

    Part of my problem is that I’ve looked at the website, and all I can find is user reviews (which should always be treated with caution) and articles written by dietdoctor.

  26. C@tmomma @ #20 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:34 am

    When did Tony Abbott become the spokesman, and crystal ball reader and mind reader, for the Rank and File of the Labor Party? He can’t buy a clue about the Labor Party because it is alien to everything he believes in. We actually love our country and don’t want to see it sold off to the kleptocrats and spivs who only want to exploit everyone for their own gain. And that’s just the beginning of where Tony Abbott and Labor diverge!

    ON that, I am in furious agreement.

  27. I just bought a new iMac on the weekend and just want to know how they fit it all in.
    Not much space for fans, or seemingly pretty much anything else.

  28. I watched Q&A last night and it was most heartening. Never heard of that Grace Collier creature before, but apparently she is the industrial relations reporter for the Australian. My impression….what a blonk! If she is representative of the intellectual horse power that Labor faces then we have nothing to fear but fear itself. Fair dinkum, every time she and others of her ilk open their collective mouths, Labor’s primary must go up. Someone should contact her at News Limited and ask for her to appear more often on the ABC.

  29. KayJay

    Your explanation is brilliantly clear. However, since I know no one who can help me, I may have to pay for a computer consultant to come out, dammit.

    For how long do you think the F1 boot fix will last? My son won’t be visiting for a month…

  31. @CFMEU: Massive news! The ABCC has failed again as our flags have been found not to breach the building code #auspol #AusUnions #QandA

  33. more evidence that personal approval ratings means almost diddly squat to the actual outcome of an election.

  34. lizzie @ #28 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:53 am

    KayJay

    Or anyone else in a kind mood…

    When I turned my computer on this morning I saw this message:
    “CPU not detected”
    There were a few other words and then, at the bottom,
    F1 boot.

    So I pressed F1 and all the normal screens returned.

    Help!

    Make sure you have current backups of everything important on your computer.
    Continue as normal and hope it is a one off.
    Make sure you have someone you can turn to if it fails completely.

  35. adrian @ #76 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 6:17 am

    I just bought a new iMac on the weekend and just want to know how they fit it all in.
    Not much space for fans, or seemingly pretty much anything else.

    It’s a major trade off between a laptop and and a desktop.

    The heat produced is a limiting factor in what you can put in more mobile devices as its ability to disperse heat is so much less.

    It’s one of the major challengers in producing more powerful CPUs for laptops. 🙂

  36. Anyone else have Malwarebytes Anti- Malware installed ????

    I am getting malicious website blocked pop-ups on here

  38. KJ,

    Do yourself a favour and get yourself a Mac. Sure, you’ll pay more for less, as one of my sons keeps telling me, but you’ll find yourself in a transcendental state as you switch it on with a soy latté or Chardonnay in hand (depending on the time of day). You can’t open them up so you won’t be troubled by all that gadgetry you have on display. And you’ll be able to walk around with that smug air of being a Mac owner!

  40. lizzie @ #78 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 9:20 am

    KayJay

    Your explanation is brilliantly clear. However, since I know no one who can help me, I may have to pay for a computer consultant to come out, dammit.

    For how long do you think the F1 boot fix will last? My son won’t be visiting for a month…

    I think indefinitely.
    Good luck and I leave you with the immortal words from The Wreck of the Old 97 which you may remember Jake and Elwood promised to perform at the next appearance (behind the chicken wire) in the wonderful The Blues Brothers.

    ♫Now ladies, you must take♫ warning
    From this time on ♪and learn
    Never speak harsh ♫words to your true love or ♪husband (or son
    He may ♪leave you and never♫ return.

    You my now ask yourself – “Dogbone it, what’s that got to do with anything ❓ ”

    The answer my friend is blowing in the wind.
    Best of luck with your computer. I do know how important it is to you.
    Back to the cleaning. 😢

  41. lizzie @ #28 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 7:53 am

    KayJay

    Or anyone else in a kind mood…

    When I turned my computer on this morning I saw this message:
    “CPU not detected”
    There were a few other words and then, at the bottom,
    F1 boot.

    So I pressed F1 and all the normal screens returned.

    Help!

    It may be nothing but a hiccup, but it is a symptom of something. I don’t know enough about computers to offer a reason why the CPU wasn’t detected. I have to leave that to others.

    But something briefly went wrong. If you haven’t made copies recently of your important files and other settings (like bookmarks and any favourite software) it might be time. I keep a hard drive by my laptop and periodically plug it in and copy my precious stuff to it. (I’ve written a DOS script to do this but there is backup software around that allows you to automate the process and I don’t keep it permanently plugged in because there are infections that can destroy any attached drives.) As a backup to the backup I also use “Windows File History Backup”. I’m a bit paranoid, but just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they’re not out to get me. Good luck and good backups.

  42. I wouldn’t trust Littleproud, myself.

    Denise Allen‏ @denniallen · 4m4 minutes ago

    Yesterday on @RNBreakfast #davidlittleproud said @AlannahMac had not requested information from him regarding live sheep exports report effectively saying she had lied. What he knew & didn’t say was that the request would not normally be from her personally but her department…

    which had requested the information at least 3 times and Littleprouds dept had denied the WA dept the docs, fobbing them of by requesting further 30 days each time. Littleproud was being exceptionally deceitful, implied @AlannahMac had lied and he did not impart the information
    the WA Dept had requested the information at least 3 times. So who was lying? It’s not what they say, it’s what they don’t say… and what they deliberately leave out.

  44. Darc @ #87 Tuesday, June 5th, 2018 – 6:31 am

    KJ,

    Do yourself a favour and get yourself a Mac. Sure, you’ll pay more for less, as one of my sons keeps telling me, but you’ll find yourself in a transcendental state as you switch it on with a soy latté or Chardonnay in hand (depending on the time of day). You can’t open them up so you won’t be troubled by all that gadgetry you have on display. And you’ll be able to walk around with that smug air of being a Mac owner!

    So, besides being a smug wanker, are there any real practical reasons for handing over a larger wad of cash? 🙂

  45. A powerful cold front approaching the southern half of Western Australia has already brought damaging northerly gusts and heavy rainfall to much of the state.

    More than 15,000 properties have been left without power as far north as Kalbarri and south to Albany, with Geraldton and the Dunsborough-Yallingup areas each suffering about 4,000 outages.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-05/power-out-homes-damaged-as-big-cold-front-threatens-wa/9834952

    It is very windy here, but so far no power outages.

  46. Zoomster – sorry but you are telling porkies if you say you’ve gone to the Virta website … it is a scientific website.

    If you are talking DietDr.com, you have to go in and sign up for the free month to access all the scientific stuff. And there is reams of it. Current research results. They are also all qualified doctors and scientists, many leaders in the field and doing exhaustive research now.

    The Intensive Dietary Management website is also full of science and latest research. Especially on cancer.

    Lumping that Aussie chef into the same class is completely wrong — as he is not advocating a proper ketogenic diet, even if he uses the word.

  47. Clem Atlee @9:18AM ” If she is representative of the intellectual horse power that Labor faces then we have nothing to fear but fear itself. “

    That’s the thing, our politics doesn’t seem to involve much ‘intellectual horse power*’. Labor has to overcome a barrage of simplistic slogans, half-truths, outright lies and smears, repeated endlessly, echoed mostly unchallenged, if not actively boosted, in the big media. That’s what Labor has to work around.

    * ‘but a lot of horseshit’

  49. Confessions says: Tuesday, June 5, 2018 at 9:35 am

    phoenixRed:

    I have Malwarebytes installed but am not getting pop ups for this site.

    *************************************

    Thanks Confessions – not sure what is going on – they just started everytime I refresh the screen ……

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