The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.
UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.
UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.
In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.
Korea expert explains how ‘depressingly ignorant’ Trump is hurtling toward ‘disaster’ at Kim nuke summit
Robert E. Kelly, a professor of political science who teaches in Korea says that Trump seems poised to make two major concessions to North Korea next week without even realizing what he’s doing. In particular, he says that Trump may give North Korea two things it has long sought — official recognition in the form of a meeting with an American president and an official peace treaty signed with the United States — in exchange for absolutely nothing.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/korea-expert-explains-depressingly-ignorant-trump-hurtling-toward-disaster-kim-nuke-summit/
On public pooping —
https://www.menshealth.com/health/a19541248/psychology-of-the-serial-pooper/
CNN North Korea expert says Trump used ‘trigger word’ at press conference that will infuriate both Koreas
Hwang said President Trump used the trigger phrase “Sea of Japan,” and said the term would not sit well with the people of Korea.
“He referred to the Sea of Japan. That’s a trigger word. If you have spoken to North Korea officials as I have, and many of you have as well, for them, World War II with Japan has never really ended. They still have a long memory of what Japan did in Korea during World War II, it is very sensitive,” Hwang said.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/cnn-north-korea-expert-says-trump-used-trigger-word-press-conference-will-infuriate-koreas/
On how society views mental illness–
‘I knew when Patrick Swayze was battling pancreatic cancer. I know that Cynthia Nixon is a breast cancer survivor. I know that Selena Gomez has lupus and recently had a kidney transplant. I know that Dave Letterman suffers from heart disease. I know that Lance Armstrong is a testicular cancer survivor.
But I didn’t know that Kate Spade suffered from depression.
Or that Robin Williams did.
Because somehow society has made it more acceptable to talk about breasts and testicles than about the mind and the chemicals and hormones it releases and controls and the messages it relays.’
https://wokesloth.com/womans-facebook-post-about-kate-spade-mental-illnesses/alexa/
Conservative columnist demands ‘do-nothing’ Paul Ryan confront Trump and Nunes over ‘crackpot accusations’
Writing in the Washington Post, conservative columnist Jennifer Rubin tore into House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) for standing by while President Donald Trump and California Rep. Devin Nunes (R) continue to float “crackpot” conspiracy theories in an effort to derail special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into possible Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential election.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/conservative-columnist-demands-nothing-paul-ryan-confront-trump-nunes-crackpot-accusations/
Cameron @11:43pm on 7/06/2018
“Democrats lead Republicans5 0-40 % up from 47-40%. ”
Long way to go but it is trending up. In yesterday’s blue wave discussion, there was mention of it trending down. It will show in next poll whether it is a outlier.
a r @ #1451 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 11:16 pm
ar
I will reply briefly this morning
Yes of course we agree that ultimately Obama as President must take responsibility,but it is also very important to understand the role key advisors play. We have no problems suggesting Jared Kushner plays a major role re Trump, so we should have no trouble accepting that Hillary played a role as advisor when she was First Lady.
Obviously the role of SoS is critical. In the case of Clinton her influence was very, very strong in the early years of the Obama reign, given he was totally inexperienced in foreign affairs. I would think that at least in the first few years, essentially Hillary ran the Foreign Affairs portfolio single handed, with minimal input from Obama. I will go back to her book to see what SHE says exactly and how often Obama appears.Might take a day or two.
He seemed to grow stronger in the second term, which might reflect his strength relative to Kerry (as compared with Hillary) or his growing understanding of world affairs. It is even possible that Hillary was not selected in the second term because she and Obama were diverging more (although her poor health and probably plans for a presidential bid may have been more important)
A funny from Campus Morning Mail today.
“Gut reaction
CQU lists its values as Engagement, Can-Do, Openness, Leadership and Inclusion, conveniently acronymed as ECOLI.”
dtt
The question was about personal responsibility, with you making Clinton responsible for a variety of decisions taken by the US.
So do you now accept that the ultimate responsibility for all those decisions was not Clinton’s but the relevant Presidents? Or are you unable to admit that you were wrong with your original assertions?
It’s all Keystone cops fun , a jolly jape, no real crime eh Mr Fickling ? You and the horse you rode in on can GAGF !
I loved how ‘naice’ he made ignoring criminal behaviour and criminal behaviour sound. Mere ‘indulgence’ and ‘misconduct’ .
PhoenixRED@8:30am
In one of her posts DTT while discussing no blue wave in primaries mentioned that Nunes got 60% of vote in Californian primaries. Can you provide an explanation for that? From what I read he is a RWNJ.
Quite extraordinary questions from Stan Grant, chanelling his inner Leigh Sales:
STAN GRANT: There is another issue here. Tony Abbott, who’s been a supporter of this, a proponent of this centre, has said that it is not just about the teaching of Western civilisation, it is for Western civilisation.
If we look at the other side, is it also the case that universities right now can be accused of being anti-Western civilisation?
BRIAN SCHMIDT: So Stan, I can only speak for the ANU, but the ANU is not anti-Western civilisation and, indeed, we have one of the most dynamic programs not just in Australia, but the world.
You know, amongst all this kerfuffle today, we were once again ranked as one of the top 25 universities in the world, and that’s the basis, that is based on that academic autonomy we have.
Stan, we have more than 150 courses in areas around Western studies. It would take you 18 years to study all those courses at ANU.
STAN GRANT: Indeed. I’ve had a look at some of those courses and this was just a very quick glance at some of them.
But here’s one, for instance: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander History – exploring the ways that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people draw on a range of personal, social and cultural resources to compensate for the adversities brought about by colonisation.
Here’s another one: Bachelor of Politics and Philosophy – where graduates will study whether it is rational to vote in national elections, or why favour democratic political institutions.
Another: The study of literature, Empire and its Fictions – particular attention paid to race, gender and class generated by texts.
The critique or the criticism here is that, yes, Western civilisation is studied, but from a hostile or adversarial point of view. That it isn’t an open-ended study – it is loaded.
‘The critique or the criticism here is that, yes, Western civilisation is studied, but from a hostile or adversarial point of view. That it isn’t an open-ended study – it is loaded.’
Er, right – so the answer is, apparently, to introduce another study where Western Civilisation is glorified. For balance.
zoomster @ #1507 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 8:39 am
Zoomster
The discussion started as to whether Hillary was a Hawk or not and I cited evidence or her past positions.. It is about influence, or are you suggesting Clinton was a cipher during her term as SoS.
I am always up for a good argument but get irritated which taken out of context.
Ven says: Friday, June 8, 2018 at 8:43 am
PhoenixRED@8:30am
In one of her posts DTT while discussing no blue wave in primaries mentioned that Nunes got 60% of vote in Californian primaries. Can you provide an explanation for that? From what I read he is a RWNJ.
**************************************************
Ven – I think we may find that Nunes’s name is written in RED INK in Robert Muellers persons of interest files and he may well find his future will be decided by processes other than voting
There is a good article on *The Hill* website about him ( I can’t post it as that site keeps blocking on my computer )
Dem Andrew Janz advances in bid to unseat Nunes | TheHill
thehill.com/homenews/…/390563-california-dem-advances-in-race-to-unseat-nunes
BW and P1, I just saw a promo for Landline this Sunday. It talks about a vertical farm. It produces 500 tons of green vegetables in a warehouse. Totally automated and which means the only species present are the vegetables. So much for farming and biodiversity!
Looking forward to seeing the program as I would love something similar to replace my veggie patch in the backyard.
With the cancelation of the Ramsay Centre for Western Civilization, the right can console themselves with Gandhi who ‘though it a good idea’.
Nunes is from an extremely republican district.
He was elected with 62% of the vote in 2012, 72% in 2014, and 68% in 2016.
Nunes is from an extremely Republican district.
He was voted in with 62% of the vote in 2012, 72% in 2014, and 68% in 2016.
Trump is an ignoramus. He cares nothing about South Korea except as a bases for the US military. There are many things that unite North and South Korea, including their attitude towards the Japanese occupation.
South and North Korea officially refer to the Sea of Japan as the East Sea. this is not a trivial matter for both governments.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_of_Japan_naming_dispute
zoomster @ #1509 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 8:39 am
The latter. 🙂
Yep. Stan either doesnt know what University is about or didnt think that question through first.
Universities have been challenging their students to question the prevailing ‘West is Best’ belief for decades. Around the time of Fukuyama’s little essay was probably the zenith. But getting students to challenge prevailing wisdom is not necessarily hostile and does not necessarily encourage hostility to it. It invites and encourages students to look deeper into the subject which often enhances or solidifies the prevailing thought.
dtt
Which is, of course, why I put my comments in context.
PeeBee @ #1516 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 8:59 am
It’s basically Hydroponics. Which Pot Growers have been using clandestinely for decades. 🙂
KJ@7:13am
“war crimes article is worrying”
Recently, There was an investigation by ABC into Navy Corruption. How one particular defence contractor based in Singapore was wining and dining navy officers to get US and Australian navy contracts. Those corruption allegations are investigated by Military. If I remember correctly, that defence contractor is arrested and he flipped.
So it is not just army.
Z
Conflict and disasters are much more interesting than success. History is basically about wars. No one wants to know that western civilisation is showing great progress in terms of life expectancy, standard of living, crime statistics, choices, human rights etc etc.
Trump is an ignoramus. He cares nothing about South Korea except as a bases for the US military. There are many things that unite North and South Korea, including their attitude towards the Japanese occupation.
And who has just made visit number eleventy to the USA and was standing beside Trump? The Nationalist President of Japan, Shinzo Abe.
Stan Grant must be sick of hosting that crappy show on News 24 that nobody watches. Perhaps he could try Sky News.
Gareth says: Friday, June 8, 2018 at 9:03 am
Nunes is from an extremely Republican district.
He was voted in with 62% of the vote in 2012, 72% in 2014, and 68% in 2016.
********************************************************
Thanks Gareth – a couple of items from the LA Times article :
He will face Democrat Andrew Janz, a county prosecutor, who as of mid-May had raised almost $2 million as cash poured into his campaign from around the country from those who want to counter Nunes.
Janz, who collected 32% of the vote, will be running an uphill battle for Nunes’ House seat in a district where registered Republican voters outnumber Democrats by 10 percentage points and Trump won with 51% of the vote in 2016
In the Republican’s hometown of Tulare, where partisan rifts reflect those across the country, many constituents aren’t following the battle. But the House Intelligence Committee chairman did fall behind in one election handicapper’s ratings in late April, giving more optimism to Democrats who hope to regain control of the House in November.
Nunes’ district was downgraded to “likely Republican” from “safe Republican” by analysts at Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics in April.
http://www.latimes.com/la-pol-ca-california-primary-june-live-rep-devin-nunes-will-face-andrew-janz-1528267631-htmlstory.html
RWNutjobbies seem to be ramping it up against Unis at the moment.
There is the ANU / Ramsay centre thing. Lol! i think the right wingers are pushing it up hill if they think they can out argue Schmidt on this. Of course argument and debate are not where the Libs will go on this. Assertions , ire and outrage are the thing dont cha no?? 🙂 Straight out of their propmote division and fear playbook.
And then there is this.
https://outline.com/3VDVeC
“Jewish students take aim at ‘distressing’ university paper”
Suck it up princesses. A lot of people are “distressed” at the behaviour of the Israeli Govt. It has nothing to do with Jewishness or not. There are certainly a lot of people in the world who identify as Jewish who are critical of the Israeli Govts action and, we have at least a degree freedom of the press in Australia. You have a prob with the content of the article, fine, be out there and tell the world.
A much better headline that would frame this properly as a political debate would have been:
” Students supporting Israels Govt take aim at ‘distressing’ university paper”
Diog
I agree with you there! I do a bit of a thing going around pointing out to people that someone living in Australia in the present day is probably living the best life anyone has lived on the planet so far…
History should be an objective exercise, not teaching to an outcome.
“Stan Grant must be sick of hosting that crappy show on News 24 that nobody watches. ”
Unless he has a guest on i particularly want to hear i turn that on off. Grant is a pompous git with far too high an opinion of himself. That said do watch it when he is not presenting.
Ven,
Devin Nunes represents an Agricultural district in California. I believe it is the one where Oranges are grown. So he gets a very high vote from all the farmers. Like the Nationals do here. However, they don’t have a separate party, like we do here. So he is a Republican.
zoomster @ #1530 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 9:14 am
Where the hell do you start with such a statement?
“A holiday resort called Vacationland on Hawaii’s Big Island has disappeared after lava poured into two oceanfront subdivisions, smothering hundreds of homes and filling an ocean bay, effectively creating a new foreshore.”
The latest thermal map of the fissure 8 lava flow:
Z
Things viewed as catastrophes now 9-11, the Troubles in Ireland and even the ME pale into insignificance compared to what happened all the time before the 20th century. We have an ingrained pessimism probably due to the media
adrian.
My apologies for being precious about my profession last night. I do take your point, which seems (to me) to be that Medicos are just as susceptible to commercial pressures as everyone else, and that their collective prescribing habits deserve some scrutiny rather than uncritical acceptance. Doing this “adequately” (in the opinion of whom?) is a (series of) hard problem (s), which deeply engage many of us who teach and nurture the culture of medicine – and may cause us to overreact when we feel that the tribe is being unfairly characterised, or attacked.
Medicine is a strange profession, and has been since it emerged from the swamps of secular shamanism via Hippocratic philosophy, the “Arabic” renaissance, Germ theory and aseptic surgery, anaesthetics, Freud and transplantation. You may recall Hippocrates. Most of us are aware of his oath and strive to abide with its principles (including the “emoluments” clause) even if we don’t actually swear it.
Currently, Medicine takes the best and the brightest and gradually inducts them into a series of linked but exclusive cultural tribes over 10-20 years of training and apprenticeships in complex and rapidly evolving systems ranging from molecular immunopharmacology to Mindful Attachment Theory in schizophrenia. A lot of it ain’t science, some of it ain’t even persuasive art. Then it sits most of them behind a desk tasked with figuring out a reasonable response to the anxieties and risks of complete strangers in 10-40 minutes. Mostly, what we do is reassure and try to do no harm. Frequently, we guess what might relieve the presenting symptoms. Occasionally, we are reasonably confident that what we do improves the lives of others – though that usually requires checking back afterwards to see what actually happened. Most of us are quite content to do this for most of our 40-50 year professional life – very few retire early. Sure, there are the procedural pirates who charge QC rates for a few hours work outside the public funding system, and others who go over to the Pharma-flogging dark side, but very few of us do it for commercial reasons, hence we get quite upset when we are accused of doing so – particularly cultural Marxists (like me) who are doing our best to help biology beat bourgeois bigotry. “Some day, son, even Rupert’s gonna end (…I love the smell of sildenafil in the morning…)”.
Rant over, but if you want to understand what drives most of my colleagues, I recommend Atul Gawande’s June 2 piece in the New Yorker.
Fifa will be aghast that news of corrupt soccer referrees got out BEFORE the World Cup. How could they sell out for a mere $65000? It is devaluing football bribery.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-44406535
Jaeger @ #1464 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 6:18 am
Surely that should be
“… after lava poured into two previously oceanfront subdivisions …”
🙂
Which I think is my point. Drilling down into the topic you get such information. But drilling down further one has to ask – ‘why (the great progress in the West’? Or perhaps, ‘at who’s expense’? Often it does come down to ships and guns… and germs and steel and silver and potatoes… or whatever that book was called.
Western Expansion was great for the West. But western expansion was barbaric in the extreme and this must be included in any discussion about Western ‘Civilisation’ and the benefits it bestows on those lucky enough to be born there.
Interesting – the latest move by SKY news Aust to try and garner some viewership (read as: steal from ABC) … they’ve rearranged all the channels so their main news channel is now on the first page on the program list immediately after the ABC.
Thdey’ve Also chopped up their multiview so it is not so easy to see alternative news/reruns of press conference/estimates etc. Now if it isn’t on their single ‘extra’ channel, you need to view on their website.
Interesting news that Katy Gallagher “wants” to stay in the Senate and not run for the new seat in the House of Reps.
Is this really her choice or behind the scenes factional workings?
The Rights candidate has stood up pretty quickly! 🙂
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jun/08/katy-gallagher-says-she-will-run-for-senate-spot-again
No need to apologise rhwombat, and thanks for the link – I’ll investigate later.
My overall point was partly what you stated, but more that some treatments often aren’t given enough attention as alternatives to drugs, because nobody stands to make much money out of them.
adrian
By looking at the evidence.
Our two major cities constantly rank as the world’s most livable. Melbourne rates number one due to healthcare, education, stability – which means, by and large, that Victoria as a state enjoys the same ratings.
We rate fourth in life expectancy.
Seriously, the life style most of us enjoy would be unimaginable to the average person living a century ago.
None of that means there aren’t problems, or we shouldn’t tackle them. Just that, at least sometimes, we should acknowledge our good fortune.
SK
‘Western Expansion was great for the West. But western expansion was barbaric in the extreme and this must be included in any discussion about Western ‘Civilisation’ and the benefits it bestows on those lucky enough to be born there.’
No disagreements there, and any decent study of history includes acknowledging that our gains are at the expense of others.
AT least the Hawaii volcano only seems to be causing property damage. Not good if it’s you’re property, of course. Maybe it wasn’t such a good idea for development to be allowed on the side of a volcano close to ventts that have erupted before.
Of course the whole Big Island is a shield volcano rising 34,000 feet off the Ocean floor. It’s still building.
That channel (103) now has the parental lock on it in this household. I don’t need no accidental channel changing mishaps in my life!
Thanks for your post, I thought it excellent.
Just how old are you, is the question I have for you ❓
https://healthywildandfree.com/17-quotes-hippocrates-wisen-health-mind/
3. 3.To do nothing is also a good remedy. – (This is mostly my plan for today.)
Hippocrates
Latest picture.
Zoomster, having been a history teacher in a previous life and being raised on EH Carr, I think that historical objectivity is a myth, and quite a dangerous one at that.
“But not an ornithologist it seems; your Gravitar is Gymnorhina, not Pica. ”
you are correct on two counts, while I am a bird nerd, I am not an ornithologist and I am using an older form of the part of magpie’s scientific name. Actually magpies and butcher birds are both ‘cracticus’. And when you hear a butcher bird sing (glorious) you can hear the relationship to our caroling magpies.