The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.
UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.
UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.
In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.
daretotread. @ #1385 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 7:09 pm
Ah, there we go. The problem is you ascribe Hillary with powers that she’s never had. At no point in time has the phrase “the USA aka Hillary” been factually correct. The highest she ever got was Secretary of State, a position which does not place her in the military chain of command, does not give her the power to order the armed forces to do anything whatsoever, and does not give her the authority to unilaterally determine anything about U.S. policy.
Everything you blame her for was actually somebody else’s responsibility.
Also, who the hell is Andrew?
As do many others in the CPG. It’s part of the herd mentality that they subscribe to.
Just wait until Shorten becomes PM. Members of the CPG will be claiming they always knew he would succeed.
C@tmomma @ #1399 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 8:55 pm
Relevance deprivation (and Humanities funding) is a terrible thing.
C@tmomma at 8:45 pm
John Setka’s father rode the collapsing span of the Westgate Bridge 50 metres down to the mud below. He was one of the 18 survivors of the collapse, so John Setka says 18 is his lucky number.
Oh, and Adrian. I was initially talking about my GP. A doctor. YOU were the one who brought Nurses and other Allied Health Professionals into the discussion. So, nice try at a bait and switch, but no banana. Your point, therefore, is indeed, moot. 🙂
The mets are getting restless at BoM – industrial action is stepping up:
http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/perth.shtml
(Sorry I haven’t worked out how to embed an image in a post yet –
hopefuly the mods haven’t done their thing before you click on the
link above).
Corio @ #1404 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:04 pm
Thanks for that! So he was involved in the collapse but he wasn’t killed. I hope Setka Snr went on to live a long, happy and healthy life after that. 🙂
a r @ #1399 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 8:56 pm
Gee then it is such a pity she takes responsibility in her own book! Wow! what a liar she must be.
Honestly AR!
Do ypu understand the importance of the SoS position?
As SoS she was responsible for FOREIGN AFFAIRS, which fairly obviously includes matters of bombing, deposing governments, getting NATO to do things, most UN matters etc. Technically of course the President was in charge but the reality is always that the SoS has most if not all the power (except under Trump when I think the janitors from time to tie had more influence than Tillerson.)
Why are you such a sexist. Do you think that as Secretary of State she was just the stenographer?
Now theoretical the Defence people report to the President and are controlled by the President, who in turn takes ADVICE from the SoS.
In the case of the Obama Clinton duo, she had more involvement than most SoS because of her previous experience and because when he first arrived Obama was very new to all international matters. He in fact was never the full bottle on international matters. Hillary was extremely powerful for those first four years. You are in fact selling her short by denying how powerful she was.
A long time ago I remember someone fronting the weather segment on TV and announcing “because of a strike at the Weather Bureau there will be no weather tomorrow”.
Recently US sponsored a resolution in UN security council blaming Hamas for Israel shooting and killing of palestanians. There was counter resolution by Kuwait condemning Israel shooting. Kuwait resolution got 10 out of 15 security council votes. Guess how many votes US resolution got. If you don’t know you have to read following article and watch the video in it. The video is very interesting. 🙂
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/1769734
C@tmomma @ #1407 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:08 pm
Setka’s experience resonates with me. My father was killed in an industrial accident. His Super was a box of chickens from management. My mother had to go out to work and she/we had nothing but a mortgage to defend and a couple of teenagers to support.
I spent a couple of hours with my mum today. She’s 88. Showed her how to find things using Google. Rang me back a few hours later how she’d jobbed on to a site that was of interest to her. The excitement in her voice was all I needed to feel I’d done good today.
I never eat chicken.
Citizen@9:00pm
K Murphy will be first in that line. 🙂
Oh and C@rmomma you might have been talking about your GP but that was only in response to my general point about treatments that cannot be monetised not being promoted among many medical professionals.
I couldn’t care less about your GP because he or she is irrelevant to my point, being a sample of one.
So I think you never understood where the friggin goalpoasts were in the first place.
Could be chance for a punter to make a few $$ betting on Ladbrokes. Sharkie is paying $3.75 and Downer $1.14
Interestingly, Sportsbet, Centrebet, WilliamHill are currently not taking bets on Mayo (but are covering the other four by-elections).
adrian @ #1412 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:27 pm
And your sample size, demographics and methodologies are?
rhwombat @ #1209 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:30 pm
5 minutes on google and a barrow to push
At the risk of offending your delicate sensibilities:
https://academic.oup.com/jnci/article/99/15/1148/1007892
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-much-are-drug-companies-paying-your-doctor/
And your sample size, demographics and methodologies are?
A couple of goalposts. 🙂
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2563313/#__sec10title
Kind of proves my point VP.
There’s a heap of evidence out there for those not blind to it.
But it’s all outweighed by someone’s GP.
“$Half a billion, without a tender, to a bunch of unknowns… and one of them is already embroiled in the cartel imbroglio…”
$440 million for Liberal mates to do work the Government should be doing. And as far as I’m concerned, a bunch of business leaders caring for any aspect of the environment is foxes caring for the henhouse (and its residents).
Just imagine the mouth-frothing fury of the mainstream media if Labor made a grant to a consortium of unionists, environmentalists (real ones, not fake ones backed by the Fossil Fuel industry) and acedemics not approved by Murdoch to spend on some cause, no matter how worthy.
adrian @ #1421 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:44 pm
No, we people who have qualifications and experience in the Medical field bow to your superior googling, Adrian!
We are but marching morons succumbing all too easily to the Pied Pipers of Big Pharma and their filthy lucre!
Fool.
daretotread. @ #1474 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:10 pm
What, facts are sexist now? The secretary of state is not part of the military chain of command. Fact. The secretary of state cannot legally order a soldier to fetch them a coffee, let alone authorize bombings or any other military operations. Fact. None of that has anything to do with anyone’s gender.
And while U.S. politics is less conformity-minded than the Australian version, cabinet members are still expected to maintain solidarity with the president. Not doing so is a career limiting move, as Trump so nicely demonstrates. It follows that anything Hillary did as secretary of state carried Obama’s tacit, if not explicit, approval. For anything involving the military, it would be explicit approval exclusively.
C@tmomma @ #1423 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:47 pm
I love it when you are measured! Go, you good thing!
Yes I’m a fool to think I can engage in a civil discussion with you.
“Yes, I too found the conclusions of the Philosophers and Social Science researchers from Sydney Uni a tad condescending towards the Medical Profession.”
My wife and daughter have done lots of philosophy and social science subjects and the standard of evidence and lack of logic in the lectures and textbooks absolutely stun me. About 1% would make it into a medical journal, and only a low level one at that. I’m reminded of the joke
Dean, to the physics department: “Why do I always have to give you guys so much money, for laboratories and expensive equipment and stuff? Why couldn’t you be more like the math department – all they need is pencils, paper, and waste-paper baskets. Or even better, like the philosophy department. They don’t even need the waste-paper basket.”
C@tmomma in reply to adrian:
Furthermore, as far as I’m aware, of the allied health professions listed, only optometrists and nurse practitioners (and perhaps also podiatrists) are able to prescribe medications, and even then, these are a limited range, mostly restricted to particular organs/body regions (in the case of optometrists and podiatrists).
“I never eat chicken”
Thanks GG. Very moving .
Good on Daniel Andrews
Australia’s first-ever treaty legislation has just passed the lower house of the Victorian Parliament. Now, the bill will go to the upper house. And if it passes there, it will become law. We’ll be on our way toward a treaty with Aboriginal Victorians.
Michelle Rowland
Verified account @MRowlandMP
3h3 hours ago
New survey reveals 1/3 #NBN users would switch back to their old service if they could! Hardly a ringing endorsement of Turnbull’s second-rate NBN. #auspol
I should add I just read a book about time written by a quantum loop physicist and the last 2/3 of the book had not a skerrick of evidence to support it so it’s not just the social scientists who don’t have a waste-paper basket.
a r @ #1422 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 9:53 pm
Honestly AR
Are you being a stupid pedant just for the sake of it or are you genuinely simple. When it comes to decsions about which countires to bomb, governments to be overthrowm, which terrorists to fund, which NGOs to fund in other countries, UN resolutions, NATO decisions etc it is the SoS who is dominant. The military will be responsible for advising what is feasible, the probability of success, expected caulaties and of course the weapons to use.
So when it came to Libya the SoS (hillary) was the principle palyer.
Moreover when it comes to MAJOR Foreign affairs decisions eg whether to bomb the presidential palace and whether to take the president alive or dead, it is the SoS who will (or Should) provide advice to the US president. if you seriously believe that Clinton as SoS was not advised of an participating in the decision to murder Gaddafi then you are naive beyond belief.
Either you have a military that is way out of controla nd acting without restraint (ie that Obama had lost the plot) or the decision was a conscious one made by the President on advice of the SoS. It is possible (not desirable but possible) that Obama delegated this matter entirely to Clinton. If he delegated it entirely to the Military then he should have been impeached, because it breached the fundamental rule of a democracy ie civilian rule over all matters military.
Go Brian!!
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/at-the-end-of-the-day-it-s-a-matter-of-principle-20180607-p4zk5w.html?_ga=2.110193797.1823728009.1528374493-1483745229.1528374493
rhwombat – 2 nights ago: “I recommend Dean Buonomano’s latest book “The Brain is a Time Machine” to anyone who is potentially intrigued by this.”
It turns out my local library (Brisbane City) has a copy which I will pick up tomorrow. Yay. I got interested in this through my work in the mid/late 1990s simulating complex physical process with fundamental unknowns, and to do so rapidly using the inexpensive desktop PCs available then. We would run 10s of thousands of simulations at once to determine what was critical to get right and what could be ignored. We were chaining together as many PCs as we could get our hands on, even using the then infant internet to borrow from idle computers. Why? Our work was for the US Dept of Energy to prioritise research funding into nuclear waste storage. We were paid millions to save billions. But we were naive engineers and the work ended abruptly. I’d love to see the work re-started these days using contemporary multi-threading techniques. Not on nuclear waste, but in general as a way to prioritise limited resources.
The point for me was that you did not need to know everything to usefully predict something, but you did need actual data and lots of alternative models for the same processes. Years later it occurred to me that my brain might have similar approaches.
Thanks again.
liberals excuse on tax cuts:
Sky News Australia
Verified account @SkyNewsAust
8m8 minutes ago
.@LiberalAus’ @CraigKellyMP: All these countries are pulling their corporate rate of tax. If we don’t keep up, these other nations will eat our lunch. We have to be internationally competitive.
MORE: https://bit.ly/2BuFqi1 #pmlive
Some will. Most will yearn for the “Party of government” and engage in the usual low rent attacks, side shows and of course suddenly debt will become a story again. And so on. You don’t have to look far to find the partisanship if not pervasive bias of most of the media. Including a lot of hosts and producers at the ABC I’ll add.
Medical people
What can have been going on in the head of the poo jogger?
Dio,
“I should add I just read a book about time written by a quantum loop physicist and the last 2/3 of the book had not a skerrick of evidence to support it so it’s not just the social scientists who don’t have a waste-paper basket.”
Do you have name to go with the “quantum loop physicist”?
I am a physicist, of the astro variety, and so may be out of the “loop”, but I have never heard of such a sub-discipline.
Also, some books about popular physics are written by people on the fringes of physics, who indulge in speculation. The latter is not a problem, as long as these people are up-front about the fact that their speculations are not science.
For anybody who wants to give the social sciences a kicking, just read a bit of Popper first……
Yes I am a social scientist.
Zoidlord @ #1435 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 10:39 pm
sarcasm start
It’s the companies that create our wealth. Costs have to come down for the companies. Taxes are too high. And efficiency is too low. In fact if companies could do without workers entirely they’d be really productive. You’d all have jobs then!
end sarcasm
Re the ANU.
Apparently the other Brian wants to get involved
The Prime Minister said he was “very surprised” by the ANU’s decision last week to end six months of negotiation with the centre and would be speaking to vice-chancellor Brian Schmidt personally “to get his account of it”.
“What can have been going on in the head of the poo jogger?”
He was one of the few Australians who could give a shit.
Pica, re Popper:
Some if his early stuff was not too bad, but by the 1940’s he was just an apologist for anything that was against social democracy.
OH completely disagrees!
Douglas and Milko @ #1565 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 8:38 pm
Absolutely agree.
Zoidlord @ #1365 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 7:39 pm
Which companies now in Australia will leave Australia if they don’t get a tax cut? 🙂
Fulvio Sammut @ #1442 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 10:52 pm
Ooh. I’ll have a go…
He’s promoting his new start-up business venture, “Shittograms”. (Deluxe, Generous, and Premium service available. Confidentiality guaranteed. Payment includes GST and bail, strictly in advance.)
Sorry, not sorry.
Late Riser @ #1376 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 8:10 pm
Does he charge by weight? 🙂
For anybody who wants to give the social sciences a kicking, just read a bit of Popper first……
Yes I am a social scientist.
Popper is well worth reading.
So is Hayek, just be aware of where he is coming from.
I also recommend everything by Philip Mirowski, to get a handle on the relationship of the philosophy of science to the history of economic thought.
Barney in Go Dau @ #1447 Thursday, June 7th, 2018 – 11:12 pm
You get what you measure. 😉