ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

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  1. The Barnaby-Vickki circust rated 631,000 in metropolitan audiences and apparently was beaten by just about everything else.
    According to the ABC media person 7 would have expected at least 1 Million.
    So maybe the Australian people have better taste than they are often credited with.

  2. BB@10:19am
    “a true dickhead”. After Joyce started having this tawdry affair, he stopped thinking with his brain, he started thinking with his muscle down under. 🙂

  3. a r

    Never ? Not if one of the ‘guilty’ stands between a ‘clean’ rival and a shot for some nice position/appointment.

  4. Autocrat
    I was going to say the same thing about the $700 million fine of Commonwealth Bank by AUSTRACK. With no executive responsible for these crimes (and yes, money laundering is a crime under existing law) all this fines means is that CBA shareholders, mostly super funds, are getting punished while the executives walk off free as though they were Federal Ministers.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/commonwealth-bank-pay-$700-million-fine-money-laundering-breach/9831064

  5. Ah, Barnaby is trying to have The Last Word.

    Obviously not a PB regular, otherwise he’d know how futile and counterproductive that is.

  6. Bemused

    Sorry I thought it was obvious I find him attractive and sexy.

    Thus posting the photos.

    No human can have zero awareness of the sexual attraction of other human beings.
    My posting was much more objectification than what Confessions posted as it was literally a product using sex to sell a brand even if raising money for charity.

  7. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    11h11 hours ago
    ….Paul Manafort came into the campaign very late and was with us for a short period of time (he represented Ronald Reagan, Bob Dole & many others over the years), but we should have been told that Comey and the boys were doing a number on him, and he wouldn’t have been hired!

    More lies! But Trump doesn’t read so perhaps he didn’t know this.

    Andrea ChalupaVerified account@AndreaChalupa
    5h5 hours ago
    It was in the public record since early 2014 that the FBI was helping Ukraine search for tens of billions stolen by Paul Manafort’s longtime close client, ousted Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych –> https://www.voanews.com/a/washington-react-fbi-helps-ukraine-recover-billions-stolen-by-former-regime/1868097.html

  8. A fitting end for a true dickhead.

    Mrs U watched the interview. She recounted the points where Ms Campion basically told Barnaby “you’re making shit up (again)*.”

    On the face of it, it appears the guy has been getting away with making shit up to suit his audience his whole life. Good on Campion for not letting him get away with it on the interview, but what the hell was he thinking? I know, I know…

    *Mrs U delighted in pointing that she too enjoys calling out her partner’s episodes of making shit up, particularly in company, and particularly when it causes her partner discomfort.

  9. BB@10:19am
    “a true dickhead”. After Joyce started having this tawdry affair, he stopped thinking with his brain, he started thinking with his muscle down under.

    Yes, as they say, “When your dick’s hard – your brain is soft”

    Scientifically proven fact

  10. guytaur @ #705 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 11:00 am

    Bemused

    Sorry I thought it was obvious I find him attractive and sexy.

    Thus posting the photos.

    No human can have zero awareness of the sexual attraction of other human beings.
    My posting was much more objectification than what Confessions posted as it was literally a product using sex to sell a brand even if raising money for charity.

    Well good for you. He is a good looking guy.

    I wasn’t the least offended by what Confessions posted. I was just using it to point to her double standards.

  11. “To be quite honest,” Barnaby says, “I couldn’t give a shit about the political ramifications.”

    One of Beetroot’s more obvious lies.

  12. bemused says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 10:49 am
    briefly @ #686 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:40 am

    bemused has a pavlovian response to confessions. He cannot help himself. He barks autonomically.

    If I am around, I also react to your occasional stupidity. Or anyone else posting stupid.

    Your characteristic stupidity speaks for itself.

  13. Grunta‏ @gruntat · 1h1 hour ago

    #Auspol
    Prior to NE election Mal knew that Vikki was having his DPM’s baby he campaigned for Barnaby signed off on 2 jobs for Vikki and celebrated when Barny won
    Turnbull was complicit in the cover up yet no one in the media will follow this up, Turnbull gets away with lies again

  14. Bemused

    No you are using your own double standards. How dare a woman who advocates for the rights of woman be human enough to say she finds a man hot.

    We have had decades of patriarchy as treating woman as just sex objects.
    Thus all the sexist crap we see with woman leaders in politics.

    See Charles Woolley interview of Jacinta Adern. Listen to Julia Gillard’s Misogyny speech about Tony Abbott.

    When you stop treating human beings with respect because of the gender and bully and demean on the basis of that gender thats very different to a person saying hey I find this person attractive.

  15. Guys:

    The best response to a troll is no response. Starve them of oxygen and they get bored when nobody is paying them attention and naff off somewhere else.

  16. Nice.

    Tom Savage‏ @tomsavage95 · 12h12 hours ago

    So Barnaby Joyce apparently couldn’t help who he fell in love with, unlike the ‘lifestyle choices’ he claimed LGBT Australians are apparently making. #auspol #BarnabyJoyce #SundayNight

  17. lizzie says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 11:32 am
    Nice.

    Tom Savage‏ @tomsavage95 · 12h12 hours ago

    So Barnaby Joyce apparently couldn’t help who he fell in love with, unlike the ‘lifestyle choices’ he claimed LGBT Australians are apparently making. #auspol #BarnabyJoyce #SundayNight

    King James Version of the Bible, Book of Proverbs, 16:18, Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.

  18. Actually, the ratings flop was a surprise to me. A pleasant surprise, in fact. It’s restored a teensy-tiny bit of faith in my fellow Australians.

  19. Morrison: ‘The public has moved on. The media should too.’

    Yup. That’s the line for today wrt the interview.

    But, hey, it’s okay to waste hundreds of hours and hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on what Bill Shorten did 13 years ago when he was leader of the AWU and decided to help GetUp set up. Totally can’t move on from that one, eh, Scott?

  20. “King James Version of the Bible, Book of Proverbs, 16:18, Pride goeth before destruction, and a haughty spirit before a fall.”

    And the Greeks had a word for it – hubris – some centuries before that. The moral of all those Greek play tragedies is not to feel sorry for the fallen hero. It is to learn from their fate and not cultivate the same flaws in character.

  21. Cat

    Also nothing to see here line about LNP divisions pointing to the polling provided handily by their propaganda arm about polling on preferred Labor leader by the public to try and say both sides are the same.

  22. But, hey, it’s okay to waste hundreds of hours and hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on what Bill Shorten did 13 years ago when he was leader of the AWU and decided to help GetUp set up. Totally can’t move on from that one, eh, Scott?

    Or when it was okay to hound Gillard about whatever it was she supposedly did 20+ years ago when she was a lawyer. Gillard fronted an hour-long press conference taking question after question and still ended up standing tall, yet Barnaby can’t even handle a softball, pre-recorded cozy foot rub of an interview that doesn’t even touch on the issues that are actually in the public interest without stuffing it up.

  23. [“Sky News tweets

    #BREAKING: A Nationals source has told Sky News Vikki Campion is telling the truth in claiming she was pressured by some within @The_Nationals to terminate her pregnancy.”

    True, or SkyNews coming to the rescue of the Libs??

    Anyone running a sweep on how long before names get named??]

    The real story behind the Campion revelation that she was pressured to abort is the NP leader McCormack’s apparent lack of interest in pursuing the truth of it.

    Whether a pregnant woman should abort, or not, IMO is a matter for her. If there are prominent members of the National Party who would regard pressuring a woman to have an abortion as a solution to a political problem then why doesn’t McCormack want to know who those people are and get rid of them?

    McCormack should be reminded that the standard you walk past is the standard you accept:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QaqpoeVgr8U

    McCormack has no place to hide.

  24. Why the hell wouldn’t Joyce think that he could get away with just about anything?

    For years he had been protected by the LNP protection society, more commonly known as the Canberra Press Gallery.

    Not only protected, but routinely lauded as a fantastic ‘retail’ politician etc etc, while all the time these frauds would have known what a dickhead he really was.

    Now that they’ve turned, they’re doing their level best to limit the fallout affecting the rest of the government.

  25. Confessions @ #726 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 11:46 am

    But, hey, it’s okay to waste hundreds of hours and hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars on what Bill Shorten did 13 years ago when he was leader of the AWU and decided to help GetUp set up. Totally can’t move on from that one, eh, Scott?

    Or when it was okay to hound Gillard about whatever it was she supposedly did 20+ years ago when she was a lawyer. Gillard fronted an hour-long press conference taking question after question and still ended up standing tall, yet Barnaby can’t even handle a softball, pre-recorded cozy foot rub of an interview that doesn’t even touch on the issues that are actually in the public interest without stuffing it up.

    Ms Campion seems to have more than one baby to deal with.

  26. hubris

    ˈhjuːbrɪs/Submit
    noun
    excessive pride or self-confidence.
    “the self-assured hubris among economists was shaken in the late 1980s”
    synonyms: arrogance, conceit, conceitedness, haughtiness, pride, vanity, self-importance, self-conceit, pomposity, superciliousness, feeling of superiority; More

    (in Greek tragedy) excessive pride towards or defiance of the gods, leading to nemesis.

    nemesis

    ˈnɛmɪsɪs/Submit
    noun
    the inescapable agent of someone’s or something’s downfall.

    synonyms: arch-enemy, arch-rival, enemy, rival, foe, adversary, opponent, antagonist, combatant, challenger

    a downfall caused by an inescapable agent.
    synonyms: downfall, undoing, ruin, ruination, destruction, Waterloo

  27. From wiki….

    In the ancient Greek religion, Nemesis (/ˈnɛməsɪs/; Greek: Νέμεσις), also called Rhamnousia or Rhamnusia (“the goddess of Rhamnous”), was the goddess who enacted retribution against those who succumb to hubris (arrogance before the gods). Another name was Adrasteia or Adrestia, meaning “the inescapable”.

    So Joyce has brought his ruin upon himself. Few would disagree. Fittingly, his renewed arrogance is compounding his destruction. His political career is over. What next? Cooled passion and further rejection?

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 11:40 am
    Morrison: ‘The public has moved on. The media should too.’

    Yup. That’s the line for today wrt the interview.

    One good thing about Ch7 paying for the interview, is that other MSM outlets will want to piggy back on the controversy raised by Campion’s abortion claims.

    It’s a handy topic for some CPG journos to try and score an ‘exclusive’ story by digging around parliament house.

  29. Not exactly Barnaby topic, but he’s part of the government (for now!)

    https://theconversation.com/our-national-parks-must-be-more-than-playgrounds-or-paddocks-14389?utm_medium=amptwitter&utm_source=twitter

    We are now in danger of regressing to the misguided ideals of the 19th Century.

    In Victoria, new rules will allow developers to build hotels and other ventures in national parks. In New South Wales, legislation has been introduced to allow recreational shooting in national parks, and there is pressure to log these areas too.

    Late last year, NSW announced a new trial to re-instate grazing in the new Millewa National Park and other reserves, following Victoria’s unsuccessful attempt to allow grazing in the Alpine National Park.

    And just this week, the Queensland government passed new laws that allow graziers to feed their stock in national parks during droughts

  30. The “you can’t help who you fall in love with” is a joke.

    I am sure I am not alone in admitting there have been a few people I have met who I have been a more than a little bit “in love” with.

    But I was married and in many cases so were they so that was the end of that.

    Joyce is no different to any number of men who are prepared to risk losing family, career, reputation and more just for a fling.

    Many men get away with it, many don’t. He has many years to reflect on what he has done.

    Personally I hope he stays in parliament. the sight of that angry, red, aging face on the backbench will be a reminder to many that no matter how high you fly you are only one act of stupidity from crashing and burning.

  31. Kimberley Kitching find the place where the collective wisdom of the Turnbull Government has been stored for posterity.

  32. rossmcg @ #737 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 12:00 pm

    The “you can’t help who you fall in love with” is a joke.

    I am sure I am not alone in admitting there have been a few people I have met who I have been a more than a little bit “in love” with.

    But I was married and in many cases so were they so that was the end of that.

    Joyce is no different to any number of men who are prepared to risk losing family, career, reputation and more just for a fling.

    Many men get away with it, many don’t. He has many years to reflect on what he has done.

    Personally I hope he stays in parliament. the sight of that angry, red, aging face on the backbench will be a reminder to many that no matter how high you fly you are only one act of stupidity from crashing and burning.

    Looks to me like they both fell in love with the same man!

  33. Rowan‏ @FightingTories · 27m27 minutes ago

    ScoMo says the $700m CBA fine will go to border force WTF

    Where’s the compensation fund for the #banksRC victims

  34. I am sure I am not alone in admitting there have been a few people I have met who I have been a more than a little bit “in love” with.

    But I was married and in many cases so were they so that was the end of that.

    And not for the first time I’m wondering what on earth Campion sees in Barnaby. Not just because he’s an ugly immature personality, but that in order to be with her, he had to first scrape off his wife.

    What woman wants that kind of man?

  35. lizzie says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 12:00 pm

    We are now in danger of regressing to the misguided ideals of the 19th Century.

    In Victoria, new rules will allow developers to build hotels and other ventures in national parks. In New South Wales, legislation has been introduced to allow recreational shooting in national parks, and there is pressure to log these areas too.

    Likewise in WA, in Perth, the State has excised environmentally significant areas of the Marmion Marine Park in order to build another marina. The ostensible excuse for the marina is a shortage of boat pens. FMD.

    This is not happening in a far-off location. It’s planned for metro Perth, at Ocean Reef/Burns Beach.

    The destruction that will ensue is not a secret. The various agencies all know about it. But that will make no difference at all. Irrevocable destruction is not a reason to halt development.

  36. Confessions says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 12:06 pm

    Barnaby….. had to first scrape off his wife.

    ohhh… I’m having a bit of difficulty with that description, Fess….with the suggestion that his wife was somehow a smear or a stain….a blemish.

    Please don’t.

  37. briefly
    Thanks -nice work on the Greeks and hubris and nemesis. We can all probably think of other examples that fit the definitions.

    The Greeks did not focus so much on the rightness or wrongness of individual actions, as the importance of cultivating the “virtues” or good/beneficial character traits in a person. They believed the person’s character traits led to their doing the right or wrong thing in a given situation. This then leads to Aristotle’s “golden mean” of having emotional and intellectual drives in balance. E.g. both greed and austerity are unhealthy attitudes to material wealth.

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