ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 thoughts on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

  1. Georgina Downer was born on September 29, 1979 in Brussels, Belgium as Georgina Mary Beatrice Downer.

    Has her citizenship been proven? 😉

  2. A bit of fun Sunday – Rick Wilsons latest :

    You’ll Laugh, You’ll Cry

    Found: Roseanne Season 2, the Lost Episodes

    In which our columnist reveals the riveting, pathos-filled episodes of Roseanne that we’ll never get to see, thanks to those globalist snowflakes at ABC.

    With the cancellation of ABC’s Roseanne reboot, America has been engulfed once again in one of our periodic (and by periodic I mean “daily”) cultural-political bonfires. The temptation to engage with the last 48 hours of Trumpian excess, mad capering, and feces thrown from the gilded monkey cage of the West Wing is powerful, and the forces of the Distraction Economy tempt us into doing just that.

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/found-roseanne-season-2-the-lost-episodes

  3. One more thing – I can’t bear to watch the Joyce interview tonight, even if Barnaby and Vikki are “Tamworth’s royal family”. The sight of a former deputy PM, reduced to scrape by on a mere $200k pus expenses (barely triple the average wage) having to raise a family of one, with no support other than a free apartment from a business supporter, and with his former wife running off with his four daughters while keeping the family home, would be too cruel to watch. Away from Canberra, poor Barnaby will not even have access to the parliamentary bar.

    Shame Channel Seven, for screening this nightmare.

  4. I was going to mention that incident of Israeli soldiers shooting the unarmed nurse dead too. Even in a full scale declared war that is a war crime. Murder, nothing less.
    ___
    Socrates
    If one does any less than call these soldiers heroes one is called anti-Semitic.

  5. Weird logic from IPA. But what would you expect!

    Simon Beheny, IPA: “Raising the minimum wage was disappointing and cruel to people on newstart receiving half the amount.”

  6. “I was going to mention that incident of Israeli soldiers shooting the unarmed nurse dead too. Even in a full scale declared war that is a war crime. Murder, nothing less.”

    Yup, flat out wrong. The deliberate killing of civilians is very obviously Israeli govt policy. Evidence is that it wouldn’t still be going on if that was not the case. War Crimes sanctioned by their top leadership.

  7. The Liberals with a 47% primary in Braddon – when they’re behind 52-48 TPP natonally – doesn’t pass the laugh test. Seat polling in this country is still useless.

  8. Socrates @ #4 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:29 am

    One more thing – I can’t bear to watch the Joyce interview tonight, even if Barnaby and Vikki are “Tamworth’s royal family”. The sight of a former deputy PM, reduced to scrape by on a mere $200k pus expenses (barely triple the average wage) having to raise a family of one, with no support other than a free apartment from a business supporter, and with his former wife running off with his four daughters while keeping the family home, would be too cruel to watch. Away from Canberra, poor Barnaby will not even have access to the parliamentary bar.

    Shame Channel Seven, for screening this nightmare.

    Socrates

    I do feel a bit sorry for Barnaby as I do for anyone who has seen their career and life crash and burn so quickly. The money loss is significant, especially where lifestyle and expenses are adjusted to a much higher salary.

    Less than one year ago Barnaby was Deputy PM, with a loving family and a bit (?several bits) on the side. He was an influential man with an income of $400,000 and probably much more in perks as people sought his favour.

    Now he has lost his job, reputation and any potential resurrection to glory. His basic income has been halved and I am guessing his perks disappeared. Since he has to pay child support etc to his wife and kids in effect his salary has been cut a further 50%. It is a pretty big drop for anyone.

    To make matters worse his new partner has lost her job and her chances of scoring another look dim. Barnaby as Deputy PM with influence may have been an attractive partner but Barnaby the has been with a penchant for excess drinking, and an ageing man’s physique is much, much less attractive. Barnaby is unlikely to hang on to this partner and will be landed with two families to support, with himself effectively homeless.

    His political career is over and it is probable he will lose either pre-selection or his seat. He can set up again as an accountant but with his red nose, business may not be booming.

    In all seriousness I see Barnaby as a very sad figure and expect it to finish as a tragedy.

  9. There will be a war council occurring next week within the ALP and they have got to be concerned. Bye-elections historically have big to massive swings against the sitting Government and on top of that voters have been quite supportive of members being forced out by section 44 the ALP can not afford to lose either of Longman and Braddon if they do the Libs are very likely at the next election.

    I am a Tory and I prefer Shorten as a person over Rudd, Keating and of course Latham but there is a percentage of Australians that do not like him and I do not think it has anything to do with his union days, his speech annoys me but that can not be it.

    The ALP can not dump Shorten the internal battle between him and Albanese would be just to damaging but if the Libs win Longman and Braddon and even Mayo from X it could be on the cards.

    Maybe just maybe we are in with a chance.

  10. Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    57m57 minutes ago
    Coming up on #Insiders at 9am, @barriecassidy interviews Labor’s workplace relations spokesman @BOConnorMP + @mpbowers talks pictures with @fleur_anderson. On the couch are @GuardianAus’ @murpharoo, @australian’s @vanOnselenP + @couriermail’s @dwabriz. Don’t miss it! #auspol

  11. daretotread.

    It is all very suspicious re Downer and his ‘chance’ meeting.

    Britain is concerned about Australia’s links to Hakluyt security firm created by former MI6 agents

    THE UK has expressed disquiet about Australia’s links to a shadowy security firm set up by former MI6 agents, which involves Alexander Downer

    Australian High Commissioner to the UK Alexander Downer had been on the advisory board of the London-headquartered firm since 2008

    https://www.news.com.au/world/britain-is-concerned-about-australias-links-to-hakluyt-security-firm-created-by-former-mi6-agents/news-story/5d6a3c7ccbd5cd9992379aeecaa5e3dc

  12. Eddy Jokovich‏ @EddyJokovich · 9h9 hours ago

    One-sided reporting about #Mayo on #abcnews24. Using words such as “stolen”, making it sound like Mayo belongs to the Liberals and needs to be returned. #auspol

  13. Toby

    Much as I hate to say it I suspect the polling is correct.

    Labor will lose both seats I fear. Irritation will be one factor for voters. I do not know much about Braddon but my gut feel is that Longman will be tricky. One Nation will play a big role (it always does in Longman). Between them PHON and Katter got 11% of the vote.

  14. I agree with with your sentiment DTT but it is sympathy you would feel for any person caught up in such a fiasco but I also think he thoroughly deserves what has happened to him and it does not look like he has had a cold shower and long hard think about who he is and what he stands for. As for losing pre-selection that will not happen because if he did he would run as an independent and probable win, you would be gob smacked at the support he has in New England.

  15. @Lizzy

    “Simon Beheny, IPA: “Raising the minimum wage was disappointing and cruel to people on newstart receiving half the amount.””

    It makes perfect sense if your core belief is ‘kiss up, kick down’. Keeping up with the neighbours, or your social equals is essential. For someone like say a merchant banker in Wonoona Avenue Point Piper that means having a Yatch that is within at least 15 feet of length of Neil Creighton’s frigate.

    For the unwashed in houso it’s essential that the dirt poor that work for a living don’t get above their station …

    You know it makes sense …

  16. lizzie @ #2 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 5:21 am

    Georgina Downer was born on September 29, 1979 in Brussels, Belgium as Georgina Mary Beatrice Downer.

    Has her citizenship been proven? 😉

    That’s a strange one.

    A week or so ago Cash was campaigning with her and Cash made some smart arsed remark alluding to Downer being born and bred in Mayo.

    Downer immediately corrected her saying she was born in the UK but she had renounced her British citizenship a few years ago.

    This got my attention because I had seen reference to her being born in Belgium before.

    So, which one is it, Belgium or the UK? 🙂

  17. Good morning all,

    Interesting seat polling.

    I make no judgement on the accuracy of either except to say on the ground in Longman opposition to tax cuts for the banks and multinationals is high and goes up another gear when the connection between corporate tax cuts and cuts to health and education is made.

    Every QT last week Turnbull got narky about the impact of the “cuts to Caboolture hospital ” signage being driven around Longman by the ALP. Has them rattled.

    Hanson did not backflip over her support for the big end tax cuts simply over nothing. Feedback is high against them every time they are raised.

    I will just leave it all at that.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  18. poroti @ #17 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:55 am

    daretotread.

    It is all very suspicious re Downer and his ‘chance’ meeting.

    Britain is concerned about Australia’s links to Hakluyt security firm created by former MI6 agents

    THE UK has expressed disquiet about Australia’s links to a shadowy security firm set up by former MI6 agents, which involves Alexander Downer

    Australian High Commissioner to the UK Alexander Downer had been on the advisory board of the London-headquartered firm since 2008

    https://www.news.com.au/world/britain-is-concerned-about-australias-links-to-hakluyt-security-firm-created-by-former-mi6-agents/news-story/5d6a3c7ccbd5cd9992379aeecaa5e3dc

    Wow!

    Poroti
    That is pretty bloody serious stuff. How can an Australian ambassador be on the board of such a company, at least while they are serving officers of the Commonwealth.

    It also confirms what is increasingly becoming obvious – the UK secret service ain’t what it uses to be. George Smiley left long ago and the turkeys in charge look like the village idiots.

    To actually rely on Fishnets, a guy who is accident prone, and seems a bit thick seems bizarre. One likes to imagine that those involved in spying are the cream of the crop ie smart and capable, not the village idiots.

  19. Insiders panel taking the mickey out of Barnaby. “You’d think Barnaby as a former accountant would’ve thought about the tax implications of the $150K…”

  20. doyley @ #26 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 9:10 am

    Good morning all,

    Interesting seat polling.

    I make no judgement on the accuracy of either except to say on the ground in Longman opposition to tax cuts for the banks and multinationals is high and goes up another gear when the connection between corporate tax cuts and cuts to health and education is made.

    Every QT last week Turnbull got narky about the impact of the “cuts to Caboolture hospital ” signage being driven around Longman by the ALP. Has them rattled.

    Hanson did not backflip over her support for the big end tax cuts simply over nothing. Feedback is high against them every time they are raised.

    I will just leave it all at that.

    Cheers and a great day to all.

    Excellent points Doyley

    As you will understand but those in the southern sates will generally not, Longman, like may Qld seats is strange. It has a mix of retirement living, rural hinterland but ALSO one of the strongest old time working class employment base in Qld – industrial waste treatment, brickworks, metal works etc.

  21. Soc, in what sense do you mean that Georgina is “Victorian”? Most of the conservatives are very Victorian, or at the latest Edwardian (or Edweenian?). Returning to serious mode, with the new form-filling-in rules I guess we will see the full details of her ancestry, entitlements to nationalities, and renunciations of all but Aussie nationality on a website somewhere.

  22. Cassidy asking if Labor loses Braddon and Longman whether that becomes a leadership issue for Shorten. FFS!

  23. Barney in Go Dau @ #25 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 9:07 am

    lizzie @ #2 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 5:21 am

    Georgina Downer was born on September 29, 1979 in Brussels, Belgium as Georgina Mary Beatrice Downer.

    Has her citizenship been proven? 😉

    That’s a strange one.

    A week or so ago Cash was campaigning with her and Cash made some smart arsed remark alluding to Downer being born and bred in Mayo.

    Downer immediately corrected her saying she was born in the UK but she had renounced her British citizenship a few years ago.

    This got my attention because I had seen reference to her being born in Belgium before.

    So, which one is it, Belgium or the UK? 🙂

    What has happened here is that the lady, Ms. Downer, may be the fortunate possessor of a dual personality which would enable her to be referred to as being born in both the U.K. and Belgium.

    This dual personality may also have given her the ability to speak with a forked tongue which will ensure a meteororic rise through the ranks of her newly chosen profession.

    Of course, those reporting the various birth places could simply have got it wrong. Probably Bill Shorten has got his thumbprint somewhere in the mix.

    Also of interest is that Cash has a smart arse. Who knew ❓

    Rainy day in Newcastle. ☮ ☕

  24. dtt,

    Longman is indeed a unique seat and it is obvious the result will come down to where ON voters plonk their preferences. That was always a given but I think the connection between Turnbull and high end tax cuts v cuts to Health etc will hurt the liberals.

    Anyway, we shall see how it all unfolds over the next nine weeks.

    Cheers.

  25. In the economic nirvana IPA operatives dream of the minimum wage would be at Newstart level (or less) and the unemployed would get nothing.

    We already see the impact of virtually zero wage growth on many businesses that rely on workers having a few bucks left over each week for some discretionary spending.

    Do these people ever open a history book and look at what happened in the 1930s when millions of people around the world found themselves with no money?

    Or maybe they do and they see a major depression as good for the promotion of their core political belief. fascism.

  26. Braddon poll result is a bit of a surprise to me, it would be disappointing if we lose there.

    It shouldnt surprise anyone if Labor loses longman.

  27. imacca @ #12 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 5:44 am

    “I was going to mention that incident of Israeli soldiers shooting the unarmed nurse dead too. Even in a full scale declared war that is a war crime. Murder, nothing less.”

    Yup, flat out wrong. The deliberate killing of civilians is very obviously Israeli govt policy. Evidence is that it wouldn’t still be going on if that was not the case. War Crimes sanctioned by their top leadership.

    Yes, the whole logic of taking snipers to control a mass protest is flawed.

    It suggests a policy of targeting individuals within the crowd that you don’t like.

    The fact that this medic had a profile casts further suspicion as to the policy. 🙁

  28. doyley @ #33 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 9:21 am

    dtt,

    Longman is indeed a unique seat and it is obvious the result will come down to where ON voters plonk their preferences. That was always a given but I think the connection between Turnbull and high end tax cuts v cuts to Health etc will hurt the liberals.

    Anyway, we shall see how it all unfolds over the next nine weeks.

    Cheers.

    Doyley

    Absolutely

    That is why Pauline will probably emerge from the current debacle a little stronger. She is as we all know pretty thick, BUT she does have the populist capacity to tap into public sentiment – at least in the redneck section of the community.

    Led initially by her friends in the PHON wing of the LNP she probably did not at first have a clue about the tax stuff and just went along with her advisors. Once the public stated to get to her directly she responded to the public mood, but could not bring her liberal light colleague along.

    She will be the winner from the fracas, but of course long term as a national entity Phon is doomed. Pauline may still win in Qld but her party elsewhere will not.

  29. “Insiders panel taking the mickey out of Barnaby”.
    This tell us more about the media than Barnaby. The MSM (including the Guardian and the ABC) vigorously protected Barnaby until the truth came out from other sources. If that uncontrolled exposure hadn’t have happened people like Murphy in the Guardian would still be writing puff-pieces about him (as Katharine was doing late last year).

  30. Hmm, as I expect, Labor will lose in Braddon and Longman.
    Malky will call the election for August.

    The media will bang on and on and on about how Labor couldn’t even hold two seats in a by election historically unprecedented yadayada….on and on….everyone hates Bill yadayada….on and on……

    Malay wins with an increased majority the media bangs on and on about how amazing that is and how wrong the polls were for all those months/years saying Labor would win ……on and on………

    Post election Bill retires Albo, Burke, Plibasek and Butler slug it out for the leadership of the opposition.

    Malay gets at least two more terms.

    It looks inevitable now.

  31. bug1
    “It shouldnt surprise anyone if Labor loses longman.”
    Really the ALP losing a by election to an unpopular Government and no one in the ALP would be surprised.
    Ok I will give you the heads up the ALP expect to win and do not need to win but a loss will deeply felt by the ALP because of the huge federal election consequences. The ALP must win seats in Queensland.

  32. If these seat polls are to be believed the question that comes to mind is;

    WTF have the Members been doing?

    Where is the the personal vote they should have developed through interacting within the electorate?

    But it’s a single seat poll and as we discussed earlier in the week in regards to them, WTF knows what they mean or tell us!!!! 🙂

  33. Seriously, some of the concern trolling and pants-wetting about a couple of Reachtel seat polls eight weeks out ….
    Seat polls in this country have a woeful record.
    A 52-48 Coalition in Longman could just as easily be a 52-48 Labor.
    A Coalition primary of 47 in Braddon (+5.5 since 2016) is a joke.
    Labor to hold both seats easily. The real action is in Mayo.

  34. BK @ #6 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:31 am

    I was going to mention that incident of Israeli soldiers shooting the unarmed nurse dead too. Even in a full scale declared war that is a war crime. Murder, nothing less.
    ___
    Socrates
    If one does any less than call these soldiers heroes one is called anti-Semitic.

    The Palestinians are a Semitic people.
    The Semitic blood in modern Israelis seems heavily diluted by European blood.
    Isn’t it anti-Semitic to attack the Palestinians? Doesn’t that make the Israelis the anti-Semites?

  35. Australian media seriously needs to use subtitles when showing Hanson being interviewed.
    __
    I doubt if there has been a speech recognition program written for her dialect and grammar.

  36. Further to the West Coast Eagles vs Richmond discussion earlier. It is worth noting that Richmond have lost the two games this year when they had to travel interstate. By contrast, West Coast have won all 4 matches where they had to travel. It suggests that if there was a level playing field wrt travel,the Eagles would be ahead by more than 1 game.

  37. Mundo @ #42 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 6:31 am

    Hmm, as I expect, Labor will lose in Braddon and Longman.
    Malky will call the election for August.

    The media will bang on and on and on about how Labor couldn’t even hold two seats in a by election historically unprecedented yadayada….on and on….everyone hates Bill yadayada….on and on……

    Malay wins with an increased majority the media bangs on and on about how amazing that is and how wrong the polls were for all those months/years saying Labor would win ……on and on………

    Post election Bill retires Albo, Burke, Plibasek and Butler slug it out for the leadership of the opposition.

    Malay gets at least two more terms.

    It looks inevitable now.

    You must be in huge demand as a dinner party guest with such a wonderful, bubbly out look on things.

    There is a rumour that they will be producing an Australian version of Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy.

    You would be a shoe in for this part! 🙂
    https://youtu.be/Eh-W8QDVA9s

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