ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

Comments Page 2 of 23
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  3. Taking a balcony view of Insiders this morning it’s clear that the government is a rolling omnishambles. It’s just crisis after crisis after crisis.

    We really need to boot this mob out.

  4. A poll based on a rise in the PHON vote given present circumstances is inherently suspect. It’s then used as the basis for single seat polling – yeah, nah.

    However – Tassie is always hard to predict, because the sample sizes for (normal) national polling are too small. It’s also obvious that Tassie is becoming a tree changer destination – so a lot of affluent retired professionals are moving down there. I don’t know if there’s enough of them to change the political landscape dramatically, but it might (help) explain changes there.

    I’d be also interested in how the (apparent) collapse in the Green vote influences preference allocations. Most Green voters last election preferenced Labor more heavily than those in the “Others” box did. So if Green voters have moved from Green to “Others”, one would expect that “Others” preference flows will now behave differently to the way they did last election.

  5. One other point I think needs to be considered is how much ” interference ” Cormann and others in the government have been involved in re the bust up between Hanson and her senator.

    Was Comann stirring the pot at all ? My understanding is he sent a few texts directly to the two ON senators over the last few days. How will Hanson react and how will that all play out with ON preferences in Longman ?

    Cheers and a great day to all.

  7. David whatshisname on Insiders says an LNP insider texted him to say the Reachtel poll in Longman matches none of their own polling.

  8. daretotread. @ #15 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 6:54 am

    Socrates @ #4 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:29 am

    One more thing – I can’t bear to watch the Joyce interview tonight, even if Barnaby and Vikki are “Tamworth’s royal family”. The sight of a former deputy PM, reduced to scrape by on a mere $200k pus expenses (barely triple the average wage) having to raise a family of one, with no support other than a free apartment from a business supporter, and with his former wife running off with his four daughters while keeping the family home, would be too cruel to watch. Away from Canberra, poor Barnaby will not even have access to the parliamentary bar.

    Shame Channel Seven, for screening this nightmare.

    Socrates

    I do feel a bit sorry for Barnaby as I do for anyone who has seen their career and life crash and burn so quickly. The money loss is significant, especially where lifestyle and expenses are adjusted to a much higher salary.

    Less than one year ago Barnaby was Deputy PM, with a loving family and a bit (?several bits) on the side. He was an influential man with an income of $400,000 and probably much more in perks as people sought his favour.

    Now he has lost his job, reputation and any potential resurrection to glory. His basic income has been halved and I am guessing his perks disappeared. Since he has to pay child support etc to his wife and kids in effect his salary has been cut a further 50%. It is a pretty big drop for anyone.

    To make matters worse his new partner has lost her job and her chances of scoring another look dim. Barnaby as Deputy PM with influence may have been an attractive partner but Barnaby the has been with a penchant for excess drinking, and an ageing man’s physique is much, much less attractive. Barnaby is unlikely to hang on to this partner and will be landed with two families to support, with himself effectively homeless.

    His political career is over and it is probable he will lose either pre-selection or his seat. He can set up again as an accountant but with his red nose, business may not be booming.

    In all seriousness I see Barnaby as a very sad figure and expect it to finish as a tragedy.

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.

  11. Toby Esterhase @ #43 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 9:37 am

    Seriously, some of the concern trolling and pants-wetting about a couple of Reachtel seat polls eight weeks out ….
    Seat polls in this country have a woeful record.

    Toby

    No need for gratuitous insults. Stating the obvious is not concern trolling.

    Yes it is 8 weeks out. Plenty of time for the muddler to make more mistakes. However the polling is not looking good. Now in Longman the imputation stuff will probably have had an effect, especially in the Bribie island and Beachmere retirement centres and in the tree change areas.

    Also despite Williams polling trajectories etc, I am just not convinced that it will work well in Qld. This is a highly parochial state. Shorten is so very Victorian. Not even from a Rugby state.

  14. Zoomer, what “others” would Greens logically move to? I suspect if the Green vote is going down it is lefty Greens returning to Labor because of its tougher words about Adani, and Ged’s clear doubts about keeping prisoners on Pacific islands. See Batman for a perfect example.

  15. Sorry folks, I don’t like posting such things, but had to login twice before I could get a post to show. Seems I was logged out when I went to the new thread.

  16. LOL they’re desperately trying to keep him from having to face Mueller.

    President Trump’s lawyers have for months quietly waged a campaign to keep the special counsel from trying to force him to answer questions in the investigation into whether he obstructed justice, asserting that he cannot be compelled to testify and arguing in a confidential letter that he could not possibly have committed obstruction because he has unfettered authority over all federal investigations.

    In a brash assertion of presidential power, the 20-page letter — sent to the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, and obtained by The New York Times — contends that the president cannot illegally obstruct any aspect of the investigation into Russia’s election meddling because the Constitution empowers him to, “if he wished, terminate the inquiry, or even exercise his power to pardon.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/02/us/politics/trump-lawyers-memo-mueller-subpoena.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

  17. Earlier lost post was about Israel and anti-Semitism.

    The Palestinians are a Semitic race. The modern Israelis seem to have a Semitic heritage diluted by large infusions of European and other blood. In ethnic terms the Israelis are less Semitic than the Palestinians!

    Are the anti-Semites in fact the Israelis?

  18. Good Morning

    On individual seat polling remember the advice by the pollsters William linked to the other day.

    Greater margin of error

  21. daretotread. @ #62 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 7:05 am

    Toby Esterhase @ #43 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 9:37 am

    Seriously, some of the concern trolling and pants-wetting about a couple of Reachtel seat polls eight weeks out ….
    Seat polls in this country have a woeful record.

    Toby

    No need for gratuitous insults. Stating the obvious is not concern trolling.

    …

    The obvious response is not an insult.

    You are getting all excited about one poll, while there are suggestions already that this is not what the Parties are seeing in their polling.

    So the best we can say at the moment is WTF knows!!!! 🙂

  22. Even if the Labor caucus wanted to move on Shorten it’s now too late. They’re stuck with him thanks to the by-elections. They only have themselves to blame if this destructive Govt wins another term.

  24. These seat polls will prove to be just a bit of piss and wind. Why would the voters in Longman and Braddon turn toward the Turnbull government at this time? Are there some local factors involved that are not widely known?

  25. Rex Douglas @ #73 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 7:18 am

    Even if the Labor caucus wanted to move on Shorten it’s now too late. They’re stuck with him thanks to the by-elections. They only have themselves to blame if this destructive Govt wins another term.

    Does that mean you won’t be continuing your infantile comments on Shorten’s position as leader any more? 🙂

  26. Golly @ #74 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:20 am

    These seat polls will prove to be just a bit of piss and wind. Why would the voters in Longman and Braddon turn toward the Turnbull government at this time? Are there some local factors involved that are not widely known?

    Bill Shorten doesn’t cut through.

  27. Dan Gulberry @ #69 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:15 am

    bemused

    Your earlier posts showed up at my end.

    A couple on the previous thread did, but when I clicked on New Thread I was logged out.
    I then logged in and all appeared good, but then when I posed something, it did not show up. 🙁
    So I logged out and then logged in again and all was good.

  29. Barney in Go Dau @ #75 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:21 am

    Rex Douglas @ #73 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 7:18 am

    Even if the Labor caucus wanted to move on Shorten it’s now too late. They’re stuck with him thanks to the by-elections. They only have themselves to blame if this destructive Govt wins another term.

    Does that mean you won’t be continuing your infantile comments on Shorten’s position as leader any more? 🙂

    To ignore clear evidence that Shorten isn’t trusted and potentially a catastrophic drag on Labors vote is infantile I’d suggest.

  30. Rex Douglas @ #72 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:18 am

    Even if the Labor caucus wanted to move on Shorten it’s now too late. They’re stuck with him thanks to the by-elections. They only have themselves to blame if this destructive Govt wins another term.

    Yeah, you will not have helped a bit will you Rex?

  31. Confessions says:

    PvO says that Hunt yelling and swearing at people isn’t as shocking as people might believe

    On what basis does he think we should not “shocked” ?

  32. Golly

    Unreliable seat polling being promoted by Dennis Atkins at the start of a long campaign is all he has got. Thus his addition of his “trusted” source in the LNP saying their pollong matches that.

    Van Onselen was correct to point out such a strategy can backfire as polls change. If Labor wins now there will be questions for Turnbull to answer.

  35. bemused @ #80 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Rex Douglas @ #72 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:18 am

    Even if the Labor caucus wanted to move on Shorten it’s now too late. They’re stuck with him thanks to the by-elections. They only have themselves to blame if this destructive Govt wins another term.

    Yeah, you will not have helped a bit will you Rex?

    The Labor caucus and rusted-on supporters will have to accept the consequences of a Turnbull win given their craven reluctance to move on Shorten.

  36. dtt

    The whole premise of that article you linked to in The Wall Street Journal by Kim Strassel is a major fail.

    She is basing the entire thing on the two month gap in Downer hearing the information from Papadopoulos, and that info being passed on to US Intel services.

    Her article is based on what was reported in the New York Times earlier which actually answered that question:

    “Exactly how much Mr. Papadopoulos said that night at the Kensington Wine Rooms with the Australian, Alexander Downer, is unclear. But two months later, when leaked Democratic emails began appearing online, Australian officials passed the information about Mr. Papadopoulos to their American counterparts, according to four current and former American and foreign officials with direct knowledge of the Australians’ role.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/30/us/politics/how-fbi-russia-investigation-began-george-papadopoulos.html

    So, yeah, nah. And that’s even before we take into account that the WSJ is owned by, and Kim Stassel is paid by Murdoch.

    I repeat, yeah,nah .

  37. On what basis does he think we should not “shocked” ?

    On the basis that he had quite a few people tell him they were shocked to hear of Greg Hunt behaving in such a way.

  38. daretotread. @ #15 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:54 am

    In all seriousness I see Barnaby as a very sad figure and expect it to finish as a tragedy.

    Hm, let’s see:

    – Political power (far in excess of what it should be based upon the actual number of people who voted for his party)
    – Cushy taxpayer-funded salary (plus virtually unlimited expenses!)
    – Wife and kids (who he obviously got tired of, but kept around anyways for political purposes because ‘family values’ was part of his shtick)
    – Mistress 18 years younger than he is (every good family man needs a mistress young enough to be his daughter!)
    – Getting to sleep with an employee and not lose your job (or cushy salary, or extensive benefits)
    – $150k kickback from the media (so you can go on national TV and tell your sob story about how you got tired of your wife and kids and shacked up with one of your staffers so clearly you’re the victim here; one day’s work has never paid so well!)

    Yes, it’s an out-and-out tragedy! Well, maybe it is. For the wife, and for the kids, and nobody else.

  39. Jack

    I see “Others” as a parking spot for some voters, of the “I want to vote for a good independent, let’s see what the election throws up” variety. If a good indie isn’t there, then they pick a party. If the Greens votes were going straight to Labor, then we’d see more of a pick up in Labor’s primary.

  40. The Shorten apologists in here haven’t as yet grasped the elephant in the room – Bill’s not popular with the punters out there, other than the Labor faithful. You can’t win an election with high disapproval ratings. Shorten will always have the baggage of being a union leader – too many attack lines for the Tories and the Murdoch media.
    The Liberals polled well in Braddon in the state election in Tassie, and Labor only won Longman last time due to a big preference flow from One Nation, which they probably won’t get again.

  42. The MoE in the single seat polls will be greater than the apparent 2PP margin. It’s very difficult to get a large enough sample that is also sufficiently random to be accurate within a high confidence level from a single-seat population. Sample size is not the only issue. Sample quality is essential.

  43. Briefly

    Yes. The reliable figure is the National 2 Party Preferred.

    Ignored on Insiders thanks to the Murdoch propagandist

  48. Fess

    PvO says that Hunt yelling and swearing at people isn’t as shocking as people might believe.

    PvO implied that Hunt was known to be shouty sweary aggressive, especially to his staff, hence no shock.

  49. Rossmcg

    No. Perth is a rusted on ALP seat. Complete waste of time and money campaigning there in a Byelection when LNP are in power.

    LNP lost in Longman on PHON flows to ALP. That’s changed.

    LNP lost Braddon with massive Get Up Campaign in Tasmania.

    It’s going to be worth watching the ALP melt-down if the LNP picks up 3 seats.

  50. briefly @ #92 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:34 am

    The MoE in the single seat polls will be greater than the apparent 2PP margin. It’s very difficult to get a large enough sample that is also sufficiently random to be accurate within a high confidence level from a single-seat population. Sample size is not the only issue. Sample quality is essential.

    Statistical nonsense.

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