ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

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  1. Jacquie Lambie is actually on fire tonight.

    I wouldn’t agree with everything she says, but there’s a lot I do agree with. She’s matured notably since she’s been in politics.

    On the whole I believe she’s a positive influence in the national discourse.

  2. Lambie was too sympathetic to Joyce by far. Now there’s a man who needs to stand up and take responsibility for his transgressions.

  3. Turnbull’s 2016 DD has certainly resulted in a rag tag Senate.

    Former One Nation senator Fraser Anning has announced he will join Bob Katter’s Australian Party, predicting that remaining One Nation senator Peter Georgiou won’t last very much longer with Pauline Hanson.

    Senator Georgiou is now effectively Pauline Hanson’s last man standing after Brian Burston had a very public falling out with her at the end of last week.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/former-one-nation-senator-fraser-anning-joins-bob-katters-aust/9832986

  4. I might add that only on PB could a discussion centred around a Labor politician who’s been out of politics for decades takes up dozens of comnents, especially when it’s kicked off by the obvious troll EStJ.

    The best thing to do is ignore the little bugger and he/she/it WILL go away.

  7. A smarter person than myself could write a book on why a sizeable number of people would still vote for PHON despite the party’s self destruction that is going on.

    What magic power does PH have that allows such a circumstance to occur?

  8. Bushfire Bill @ #1103 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:38 pm

    I might add that only on PB could a discussion centred around a Labor politician who’s been out of politics for decades takes up dozens of comnents, especially when it’s kicked off by the obvious troll EStJ.

    The best thing to do is ignore the little bugger and he/she/it WILL go away.

    Actually, I don’t think it was Edwina who kicked it off. Other than by existing I suppose.

  9. Beatrooter continues:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    6m6 minutes ago

    .@SharriMarkson: we confirmed that @Barnaby_Joyce and Vikki Campion were having a baby and living together before we ran the frontpage exclusive.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2Jo0qin #pmlive #auspol

  11. Don’t know what this stuff about Rodney Cavalier, who’s been out of the public eye for 20+ years, is all about. It’s getting mention in the Australian, but nobody reads that. The editor probably couldn’t find a climate denier to write a turgid 16,000 word article today about how climate change is crap or how white people can’t go out in the streets because of Section 18C.

    Seems to be very small beer, Mark Butler is apparently a buffoon (what, as big as Abbot? Barnaby?). Something about internal Party machinations in SA. Doesn’t get a run in the Telecrap. ESJ couldn’t find anything to criticise Bill Shorten about apparently.

  12. Lambie, to me, is a genuinely conflicting person.

    I can’t personally write her off simply because she’s (a little) sympathetic to Joyce. I’m interested in what she has to say.

    She has the ability to get me to listen, which is more than what a good 90% of politicians can do.

    I think it’s her sincerity, sometimes (IMO) misguided, sometimes ill-considered, but also sometimes quirky enough to get me thinking along different lines.

    I guess I do NOT think she’s a liar. And that’s a pretty big character asset to have around politics nowadays.

  14. BB and D&M

    I think D&M thata lot may have been watching Q&A. I usually do not bother but glad I did tonight.

    Basically all three pollies were pretyy bloody good. Dreyfus as usual was excellent and Dan Tehan looks like a decent chappie – he at least pretended to be interested in the issues. I dod not get to the early stuff so not sure about Joys=ce etc

    However I think Jacqui Lambie is someone who has come into here own and learned on the job. He basic instincts are very good and I think in another era she would have been a stalwart of the ALP, and bloody feisty on the picket line.

    I have come to really quite like her. She is genuine and although when she stated was hopelessly out of her depth, she has grown into the role.

  16. It’s interesting to note that the one micro party that most commentators wrote off, Bob Katter’s Australian Party, is the bolter atm. 🙂

    I just wonder if Fraser Anning is aware that Bob supports Unions wholeheartedly?

  18. Rodney Cavalier shows the effects of too much Penfolds top shelf in the Trustee Box at the Sydney Cricket Ground

  20. Bushfire Bill @ #1111 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:49 pm

    I think it’s her sincerity, sometimes (IMO) misguided, sometimes ill-considered, but also sometimes quirky enough to get me thinking along different lines.

    Yes, Lambie does tend to come across fairly reasonably for a politician, so long as nobody gets her started on Islam or same-sex marriage.

    She tends to compare favorably against most of the political guests, from both sides of the aisle. Although Labor’s guy tonight was much more articulate than some of their other panelists have been.

  22. Cat

    I feel sorry for you

    And your characterisation of me identifies why I feel sorry for you

    To presume as you presume in regards someone who presents that ALL acts which impose on the safety and security of a fellow human being – and, yes, particularly children for the reasons spoken to on Q&A tonight – needs to be called out says more about you than me

  23. I see next Monday’s Q&A is from the SA rustbelt town of Elizabeth, with a sole panel member – Bill Shorten. Will be in his element.

  25. “– Bill Shorten. Will be in his element.”

    LoL! ABC must be left wing biased to give him the airtime. 🙂

    Wonder if Malcolm will get a run before the by elections??

  26. Observer

    You have often commented on here and have not seemed obsessed to me. Obviously when family violence is the topic you comment with passion as is your right.

    Most here do the same from time to time including (almost particularly Cat)

  27. I think the best thing I can say about Lambie is that she is fairly consistent.

    But for everything she says that I find good and reasonable there’s at least one ugly position that she holds.

    Nup, give her a miss!!! 🙂

  29. Observer @ #1120 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 11:01 pm

    Cat

    I feel sorry for you

    And your characterisation of me identifies why I feel sorry for you

    To presume as you presume in regards someone who presents that ALL acts which impose on the safety and security of a fellow human being – and, yes, particularly children for the reasons spoken to on Q&A tonight – needs to be called out says more about you than me

    Rewriting history to suit yourself doesn’t impress me either about you, Observer. Nor does putting words in my mouth. Also, spare me your sympathy.

    I have had children as well that witnessed horrific things between their parents and were subjected to the lies of one about the other, one of which I only found out about last weekend. So, spare me the homilies.

    I get it that you are obsessed with proving that your ex-wife was a nasty so and so. I feel sorry for YOU that you feel the need to keep bringing it up whenever anyone here makes reference to violent home situations.

  32. Great. Just great. And he’s a misogynist too:

    Trump’s Man in Berlin: I Will Empower Europe’s Conservatives

    President Trump’s ambassador to Germany says he wants to “empower” anti-establishment movements and leaders across Europe as part of his new job. In a major breach of diplomatic protocol, Richard Grenell told Breitbart that he’s planning to use his position to help conservative movements throughout the European Union. “There are a lot of conservatives throughout Europe who have contacted me to say they are feeling there is a resurgence going on,” Grenell told the right-wing news outlet. “I absolutely want to empower other conservatives throughout Europe, other leaders. I think there is a groundswell of conservative policies that are taking hold because of the failed policies of the left.” Diplomats are usually expected to be politically neutral and not interfere in the internal affairs of the nations where they’re stationed. Grenell later appeared to try to walk back his comments, saying: “The idea that I’d endorse candidates/parties is ridiculous.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/richard-grenell-conservatives-europe_us_5b144fb4e4b010565aace78f?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition

  35. imacca @ #1130 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 11:34 pm

    No-one warned me that Grace Collier is on Q&A tonight. 🙁

    Imacca

    I think her cred took a bit of a battering when she suggested that underpaid workers should photograph their pay slips and put them on twitter in order to get the Fair work commission to take it seriously. UM!!!!!!. Dreyfus’ response was good once he recovered form his obvious horror/amusement at twitter led government response.

  37. “Yes, BB. I agree Lambie is sincere, even if often an idiot.”

    Yup. Ofy misguided but not a bad person.

    On the other hand,Grace Collier is always an idiot and somewhat nasty as well.

  39. bemused says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 10:51 pm
    Puffytmd @ #1109 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:43 pm

    Don,
    That is easy.
    Don’t act like Bemused.

    Yes, Don, don’t act like me or you will incur the wrath of the sorority.

    Too late, I am already under their wrath because I have a y chromosome.

    The (?) logic goes:

    Humans cause damage to other humans. Thus all humans should take responsibility for what bad things all other humans do on the planet, and run around feeling guilty.

    That is the illogic which causes me to shake my head in wonder.

    I won’t take part in that sort of stupidity, I shall leave that to others who apparently enjoy it.

    I had no part in determining my maleness, it was an accident of birth, just as it was an accident of birth that females are females.

    Neither sex should feel guilty for what other males or females do if they have taken no part in the process, whether they are across the street, across the country, or in a village on the other side of the world about which they know nothing and care even less.

  40. Don
    No one is asking you to carry guilt. As you said, it was not yout fault you were born into the Y Chromosome class, that every XX Chromosome human being learns to evaluate for violence , at the peril of her life.

    It is such a male burden, to be scrutinised for predator status all the time , while the XXers get the privilege of doing the judging with only their lives forfeit if they make even one mistake.

  41. It is unfair Don, that you are made to feel put upon because of your chromosome make-up, I emphasise, I really do and I am sorry it happens to you.

    Your Sisters of the Human Race will do their best to assuage your distress at having gender-related unfairness thrust upon you by one of the other genders. From now on I can say ‘males (except Don) kill their female partners three times more than males get killed by their female partners.’
    That should be ok, this being a site dealing in stats and all.

    Now we can talk about me being part of the Caucasian horde who are intent on stealing everyone else’s resources and trashing the planet for short term gain over long term survival. Now what shall I do, complain about the label or fight to change my Caucasian race group attitudes to the planet and the other people who live on it?

    Let me think about that one for minute.

  42. Puffytmd says:
    Tuesday, June 5, 2018 at 4:13 am
    It is unfair Don, that you are made to feel put upon because of your chromosome make-up, I emphasise, I really do and I am sorry it happens to you.
    ______________________

    It does not happen to me. I do not lose sleep over stupid concepts, there are a lot of them about.

    This blog is the only time and place in my life that this concept has ever come up.

    I put it down to some of the posters here with an agenda I can only guess at.

    I do not feel put upon in the slightest, I just find the concept of some people here that all men are responsible for the actions of a few to be laughable.

    In much the same way, the concept that all females should feel responsible for the murderous actions of a few females is equally ridiculous.

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