ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

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  1. Steelydan,
    It is not just that older people tend to vote LNP it is because as you get older and wiser and you vote for for sensible government. You become a grown up it is quite natural.

    So, how come they support a crew who have doubled the debt and aren’t sensible enough to know how to get it down and balance the Budget? They want to give money away to Multinational corporations and high wealth individuals with generous tax cuts!?!

    Oh, that’s right. Self interest.

  2. C@tmomma it’s actually pretty serious because online gaming quality is a litmus test to the suitability of the network as a whole for providing low latency services like VOIP calls, E-Health, financial transactions. Woeful on wifi… God help you if you’re on satellite…

  3. “Bemused, Cavalier blew the whistle in his branch newsletter which has been picked up by the MSM.”

    Could you perhaps have found a less reliable source, let me guess the Sean Hannity right wing racist conspiracy stable that is the wonderful news corp stable of propagandists.

  4. Oh dear, what r u lot going to say now, Rodney Cavalier has joined the RWNJ conspiracy. Didn’t we do this last week when Crikey talked about the Albanese leadership planning?

  5. @catprog
    Fixed wifi is still terrible for latency.
    Also potentially very insecure. Wifi has been cracked time and time again ( I’ve ‘researched’ this)
    Modern wifi security is much better than it used to be,but likely to be susceptible to some form of attack down the road.
    Wifi packets are in the open, anyone can ‘sniff’ them by just listening on the frequency, granted fixed wifi is highly directional, but its still doable.
    eg. A nefarious user gaining access to your wifi connection can hijack your sessions relatively seamlessly, route all data through their device (ARP poison) and steal private info, like your banking passwords.
    Security is a major problem with this mix of old tech… There are a raft of issues with nodes as well….

    I always wondered what a can full of expanding foam, sprayed into those green cabinets might do :X

  6. I was just having fun bagging the right wing propaganda networks to a clown who sprouts that insane rubbish they pollute minds with like it is true, can you believe anyone that stupid can type?

    have a great evening โ€ฆ.

  7. Wifi is also vulnerable to signal jamming, and deauth packet denials of service…
    I used to spray deauth packets in my university lectures as a bit of fun. Sat up the back and watched everyone close their laptops and start listening to the lecturer (most were on facebook and some even playing games)
    Of course I had a second wireless interface which I whitelisted from my deauth attack. Hence i enjoyed a significant increase in browsing speed ๐Ÿ˜€

  8. Edwina StJohn @ #1060 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:53 pm

    Oh dear, what r u lot going to say now, Rodney Cavalier has joined the RWNJ conspiracy. Didn’t we do this last week when Crikey talked about the Albanese leadership planning?

    Cavalier’s impact on NSW politics is I think close to zero. He was a big wheel back in 1973, but his influence has faded somewhat.

  9. Cavalier is a petty godsend to Turnbull who is desperate to get everyone off the topic of Joyce and abortion, Lloyd and breaking the rules he is supposed to lead on, Prentice and her coming political death, the Scourge of the Grannies, the Wine War with China. and blue plastic spades.

  10. 22 weeks so far in 2018, 27 women killed women.

    reference Counting Dead Women. Destroy the Joint facebook page and twitter account.

    Also info http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-31/domestic-violence-murders-assessed-in-new-report/9821408
    One quarter violence committed by men under restraining orders.

    The first snapshot of Australian domestic violence murders released on Thursday assessed 152 domestic violence homicides around Australia between 2010 and 2014, finding almost 80 per cent involved a man killing his former or current female partner.

    The Australian Domestic and Family Violence Death Review Network report also found that 20 per cent of deaths involved a woman killing her current or former male partner.

    Around 60 per cent of those females were the primary domestic violence victim in the relationship.

    So it may bereasonable to assume 60% of the 20% of women, (or 12% of the whole set of killers) who killed their partner did so in self defence or DV fear, and 8just % of the whole set were female aggressors and/or DV perpetrators. (the ones that did it not out of effects of DV or ideas of protecting themselves or their kids from immediate or ongoing harm.)

    I think that is right, I need a snooze.

  11. Zeh @ #1053 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:41 pm

    C@tmomma it’s actually pretty serious because online gaming quality is a litmus test to the suitability of the network as a whole for providing low latency services like VOIP calls, E-Health, financial transactions. Woeful on wifi… God help you if you’re on satellite…

    Yes, I know. ๐Ÿ™‚

  12. Zeh @ #1038 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:28 pm

    Online gaming is extremely latency sensitive (sucks to be on wifi, even worse on satellite), as such, they are designed to be EXTREMELY low bandwidth.
    It is the everyday user’s video streams that strain the bandwidth. Youtube, Netflix etc.
    By FAR a larger proportion of users than Gamers, and exponentially greater bandwidth usage!
    (Exception is during the initial of downloading a new game of course, as is the case with any large download)

    Endorsed, 100%.

    Another factor is that the network has been underbuilt ever since “multi-technology-mix” became a thing, and also that the CVC pricing model both 1) allows ISP’s to under-provision their user-base; and 2) makes it cost-prohibitive for ISP’s to adequately provision their networks. The outcome is entirely predictable and has nothing to do with people playing games.

  13. Puff:

    As GG said we need men to stand up and take responsibility, not curl up in a fetal possie and blame women for their transgressions.

  14. Rodney Cavalier is a legend in his own lunchbox. He has no answers. If he did, Labor would welcome them with open arms.

  15. Puffytmd @ #1070 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 9:08 pm

    22 weeks so far in 2018, 27 women killed women.

    reference Counting Dead Women. Destroy the Joint facebook page and twitter account.

    Also info http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-31/domestic-violence-murders-assessed-in-new-report/9821408
    One quarter violence committed by men under restraining orders.

    The first snapshot of Australian domestic violence murders released on Thursday assessed 152 domestic violence homicides around Australia between 2010 and 2014, finding almost 80 per cent involved a man killing his former or current female partner.

    The Australian Domestic and Family Violence Death Review Network report also found that 20 per cent of deaths involved a woman killing her current or former male partner.

    Around 60 per cent of those females were the primary domestic violence victim in the relationship.

    So it may bereasonable to assume 60% of the 20% of women, (or 12% of the whole set of killers) who killed their partner did so in self defence or DV fear, and 8just % of the whole set were female aggressors and/or DV perpetrators. (the ones that did it not out of effects of DV or ideas of protecting themselves or their kids from immediate or ongoing harm.)

    I think that is right, I need a snooze.

    So your point is? I mean, apart from what you have just assumed?

    Yes, bad things happen and perpetrators are predominately, but not exclusively, men.

    It would be nice if such things could be entirely eliminated. We should strive for this, just as we try to prevent all other crime.

  16. Turnbull looked after his fellow banker spivs today.
    The biggest episode of money laundering in Australian history? Terrorist money? Mafia money?
    Dutton was crowing this morning about how successful the Government has been in collecting $700 million.
    Whoopie Doo! What about terrorist money laundering?
    Dutton is great at bastardizing powerless people in Manus.
    But what jailing some white collar crims?
    Hey, mate!

  17. Confessions @ #1073 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 9:17 pm

    Puff:

    As GG said we need men to stand up and take responsibility, not curl up in a fetal possie and blame women for their transgressions.

    What utter rubbish. No-one on PB has ever said anything like that AFAIR.
    The ones to blame are the perpetrators, regardless of gender.

  18. Jacqui Lambie is on the Qanda panel tonight.

    Hasn’t she had her 15mins of fame and achieved basically nothing? Time for her to exit stage left was months ago.

  19. Boerwar

    Cavalier is a petty godsend to Turnbull who is desperate to get everyone off the topic of Joyce and abortion, Lloyd and breaking the rules he is supposed to lead on, Prentice and her coming political death, the Scourge of the Grannies, the Wine War with China. and blue plastic spades.

    Interesting comment, but has anyone other than ESJ noticed Cavalier? I know people who are on Cavalier’s newsletter mailing list, but as far as I can tell, the MSM has zero interest in the newsletter, or the man behind it.

    Also, Edwina, if you are around, can you clear up for me why you chose the moniker E St John? Edward St John is an interesting character. One of the lesser know things that he did, I believe, is found the magazine Cleo. His intention in founding Cleo, I have been told, was to bring the Liberal Party’s Womans’ Auxiliary into the modern age. He realised that unless a modern generation of woman could adopt “new” conservative values, the Liberal party would die.

    Apparently the “new” women’s conservative values were: working, having sex, going to cocktail parties, and perving at the centrefold each month. But mostly, ensuring that you were married into the right social set, and being the liberated “hostess with the mostess” for Liberal party cocktail functions.

    If anyone can confirm or deny this perspective, or add any other historical information, I would appreciate it.

    How the Liberal party morphed from he party of Flo Bjelke-Petersen to that of Sophie Mirabella really has to be a ripping yarn.

  20. I think I broke PB when I asked ESJ to discuss how the women of the Liberal party evolved from Flo B-P to Sophie Mirabella in just 15 years.

  21. Cat

    With all due respect there is no comparing apples to apples in regards DV

    DV is DV and it needs to be called out regardless of ANY other consideration

    For every act there is a victim or victims and they require support starting from the provision of the secure and safe environment everyone has the right to enjoy

    It appears to me that on this Blog there are some who want to introduce comparisons

    There are no comparisons

    My interest is not the past – the interest of my wife of the past 22 years and me is that we have raised 7 children now all adults making their own way in life – and 5 of them are young men we are very proud of

  22. Confessions says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 9:17 pm
    Puff:

    As GG said we need men to stand up and take responsibility, not curl up in a fetal possie and blame women for their transgressions.

    In what way should non-perpetrators of either sex take responsibility for perpetrators of either sex?

    Feel guilty for something they have not done, perhaps?

  23. Douglas and Milko

    Not all coalition women are like Cash or Mirabella. Marise Payne is competent in a difficult field and actually human.

  24. Douglas and Milko @ #1083 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:07 pm

    Boerwar

    Cavalier is a petty godsend to Turnbull who is desperate to get everyone off the topic of Joyce and abortion, Lloyd and breaking the rules he is supposed to lead on, Prentice and her coming political death, the Scourge of the Grannies, the Wine War with China. and blue plastic spades.

    Interesting comment, but has anyone other than ESJ noticed Cavalier? I know people who are on Cavalier’s newsletter mailing list, but as far as I can tell, the MSM has zero interest in the newsletter, or the man behind it.

    Also, Edwina, if you are around, can you clear up for me why you chose the moniker E St John? Edward St John is an interesting character. One of the lesser know things that he did, I believe, is found the magazine Cleo. His intention in founding Cleo, I have been told, was to bring the Liberal Party’s Womans’ Auxiliary into the modern age. He realised that unless a modern generation of woman could adopt “new” conservative values, the Liberal party would die.

    Apparently the “new” women’s conservative values were: working, having sex, going to cocktail parties, and perving at the centrefold each month. But mostly, ensuring that you were married into the right social set, and being the liberated “hostess with the mostess” for Liberal party cocktail functions.

    If anyone can confirm or deny this perspective, or add any other historical information, I would appreciate it.

    How the Liberal party morphed from he party of Flo Bjelke-Petersen to that of Sophie Mirabella really has to be a ripping yarn.

    I encountered Rodney Cavalier back in the 1970s and too a passing interest in subsequent media reports.
    More recently, I did subscribe to his newsletter for a year but it was overpriced and I gave it up, although it was interesting and informative.
    Rod Cavalier was part of the NSW delegation to a Young Labor Conference and I was on the Vic delegation. He was part of an interesting cohort and another of his colleagues I remember was the late Geoff Shaw who ended up a judge and got into trouble. Those 2 stuck in my memory and it came as no surprise they both entered Parliament.
    I also remember Edward StJohn and probably still have his book.
    He brought about the downfall of Prime Minister Gorton and campaigned on the Voyager disaster..

  25. Not sure what the point of telling men to stand up and take responsibility for their transgression, i mean isn’t it obvious that everyone should do that regardless of gender?

  26. Observer,
    You are obsessed with your personal situation, it seems to me, to the exclusion, it seems to me, of anyone else’s, if it doesn’t accord with the standards you set that they must satisfy.

    Yes, we get it that you suffered at the hands, and mouth, of your wife. But, you know, you’re still alive to tell the tale. I hope you reflect on that much, at least, when you seem to dismiss the murders of women by their husbands as just as bad as that which you suffered.

  27. Observer @ #1086 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:15 pm

    Cat

    With all due respect there is no comparing apples to apples in regards DV

    DV is DV and it needs to be called out regardless of ANY other consideration

    For every act there is a victim or victims and they require support starting from the provision of the secure and safe environment everyone has the right to enjoy

    It appears to me that on this Blog there are some who want to introduce comparisons

    There are no comparisons

    My interest is not the past – the interest of my wife of the past 22 years and me is that we have raised 7 children now all adults making their own way in life – and 5 of them are young men we are very proud of

    I think C@t, confessions, Puffy et al are all post-modernists and see no absolute truth that all DV is bad.

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