ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

Comments Page 14 of 23
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  2. Trying the ‘the Australian people are ready to move on’ maneuver. Government is not a soap opera, it’s about governing for the people, yada, yada…

  4. C@tmomma @ #651 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 9:42 am

    Trying the ‘the Australian people are ready to move on’ maneuver. Government is not a soap opera, it’s about governing for the people, yada, yada…

    To cite an earlier (& more hyperbolic) reference of mine: The Beetrooter isn’t going to go away. He knows where the bodies are buried (he did most of the digging), and exactly what it is worth to the GRASPing influence peddlers of Trumble’s train wreck of a Government. The Beetrooter feels no shame. He’s already remortgaged his soul several times. This is all about squeezing Trumble’s balls just enough to make it worth Trumble’s owners paying protection – ’cause after the next election, The Beetrooter’s discretion will be worth precisely nothing.

  5. Turnbull cannot go before August as he would not want a seperate half senate election. Usually the national polls are accurate…… onp imploding cannot help their vote….. if the seat level polls are accurate…. which I am unsure of…. I remember seat level polls in the qld state election being inaccurate. Then the swing must be higher else where… I would pick the status quo in the byelections

  7. I predict Brian Trumble, in Dubbo as well today, will try the Wiggum maneuver…’Nothing to see here, move along’. When we all know, if it was a Labor DPM you wouldn’t be able to shut them and their faux outrage up.

  9. Anyway, Barnaby Joyce hasn’t ‘lost his job’. He’s still sitting there in parliament, on the Green leather, soaking up 200 large a year.

  11. Cat

    At least now the ABC is reporting about the investigation of taxpayers dollars involved.

    The rorting is what will keep this going and why Joyce is doing this circus. Distraction a tried and true method of the LNP.

  14. It wasn’t us! Try asking other ‘conservatives’.

    Nats leader reacts to TV tell-all

    Michael McCormack defends his colleagues after Vikki Campion suggested she was pressured to terminate her pregnancy by people in the party. (Oz headline)

  15. rhwombat

    Picture is from the FAS site.
    .
    “MARINE CORPS BASE CAMP PENDLETON, Calif. (April 25) — The 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit recently evaluated the new Enhanced Nuclear, Biological and Chemical (E-NBC) system for its upcoming six-month Western Pacific deployment.

    The “Fighting 13th” is the first Fleet Marine Force unit to be issued the complete system.”

    https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/docs/000425-enbc.htm

    https://fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/land/enbc.htm

  16. @imreal tweets

    So, @ScottMorrisonMP , with 26 days to go, how many foreign businesses have stepped forward to register as collectors of GST?

  17. citizen @ #662 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:12 am

    It wasn’t us! Try asking other ‘conservatives’.

    Nats leader reacts to TV tell-all

    Michael McCormack defends his colleagues after Vikki Campion suggested she was pressured to terminate her pregnancy by people in the party. (Oz headline)

    “defends”

    So is he saying that they did it and were right to do it?

  19. citizen @ #663 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:12 am

    It wasn’t us! Try asking other ‘conservatives’.

    Nats leader reacts to TV tell-all

    Michael McCormack defends his colleagues after Vikki Campion suggested she was pressured to terminate her pregnancy by people in the party. (Oz headline)

    Oh dear, one slip of the tongue and the allegations are on their way to being confirmed.

  20. Cat

    Political Alert tweets

    The Prime Minister will visit Strathmore Farm with Deputy PM @M_McCormackMP, Minister for Regional Communications @senbmckenzie, Minister for Agriculture @D_LittleproudMP and @MarkCoultonMP at 12:30pm Trance #auspol

    Yes very move on territory here.

    The truth is that this damages the Nationals very badly with the voters. For a party that professes to stand for “Family Values” the “get an abortion” mantra is very damaging. The very same politicians that wan to deny woman this choice jump to that choice when there is embarrassment for them.

    Its about the only thing I support Joyce on by calling them scum.
    Joyce with his hypocrisy has shown up the hypocrisy of the “Family Values” mantra of the party.

  21. Sic transit Gloria…

    What we saw last night was a fitting outcome for one of Parliament’s biggest bullies: him squealing about being bullied.

    Going back, I reflect on the way he treated Thomson, Slipper and Gillard with boarding school dorm-level thuggery; his incoherent drunkenness during Question Time; his bragging and lying over our precious water resources; the way he lied to his constituents; even his cockiness in the Pistol And Boo affair where he threatened to have little dogs destroyed to show how tough he was. Everyone would have their favourite Barnarby Joyce outrage.

    The common thread is lack of restraint, coupled with a bullying character. And when caught? Whingeing that he has been bullied himself.

    A fitting end for a true dickhead.

  23. It is almost certainly Turnbull (or his ‘office’) that pressured Barnaby about the pregnancy. I doubt Joyce’s Nat colleagues would say boo to him, or could care less.

  24. #BREAKING: @CommBank and @AUSTRAC have settled their dispute over money-laundering breach claims. The lender has agreed to pay a $700 million civil penalty plus legal costs for the case.

    And the group executive in charge of the fiasco gets to be CEO.

  25. The statement delivered the final blow to his reputation, and all but ensured there would be no comeback for Mr Joyce, once hailed as the best retail politician in conservative ranks.

    If the public has sympathy for anyone in the fallout from the latest revelations, it will lie with Ms Campion.

    Last night’s interview was the couple’s first chance to jointly tell of the effect of the political scandal, but the evidence that Mr Joyce is still willing to try to spread the blame for his own words on to others will do little to help his tattered reputation.

    https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-politics/barnaby-joyce-sunday-night-interview-vikki-campions-hurt-at-grey-area-comments-ng-b88854464z

    I didn’t watch the interview, but my sympathies lie with Barnaby’s wife and daughters. They were definitely thrown under the bus.

  26. guytaur @ #668 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:18 am

    Cat

    Political Alert tweets

    The Prime Minister will visit Strathmore Farm with Deputy PM @M_McCormackMP, Minister for Regional Communications @senbmckenzie, Minister for Agriculture @D_LittleproudMP and @MarkCoultonMP at 12:30pm Trance #auspol

    Yes very move on territory here.

    The truth is that this damages the Nationals very badly with the voters. For a party that professes to stand for “Family Values” the “get an abortion” mantra is very damaging. The very same politicians that wan to deny woman this choice jump to that choice when there is embarrassment for them.

    Its about the only thing I support Joyce on by calling them scum.
    Joyce with his hypocrisy has shown up the hypocrisy of the “Family Values” mantra of the party.

    But surely that is the only acceptable case for an abortion.

    When it’s to protect the man!!! 🙁

  29. Labor should just slip the shiv between the ribs of Turnbull when they come back to the ‘boarding school’ in Canberra every time he gets up to speak in Question Time, by shouting out: “Is this going to be your Gettysburg Address, Malcolm?” 😀

  30. Kay Jay

    Exactly right. I find Aaron Pederson attractive too.

    Nothing sexist about saying you find someone attractive and men saying that is proof of this.

    What is sexiest is when you only refer to someone in the one dimensional objectification based solely on looks. Not what Confessions did. Not what a man saying he finds a woman attractive is either.

  31. But surely that is the only acceptable case for an abortion.

    When it’s to protect the man!!!

    But seriously folks, isn’t this just the natural consequence of having a party and a government with too many men in it?

  33. @Bemused:

    “Andrew obviously lacks a literary taste for fiction and fantasy”

    Not true. I am currently enjoying ‘The Man in the High Tower’ on Amazon Prime: an ‘Alt History’ with a strong Australian cast – starring Peter Dutton as Ubergrupenfuhrer Smith, Andrew Hastie as his side kick double agent Joe and in a particularly strong supporting role as the Japanese Trade Minister, Kevin Rudd.

  34. Andrew Earlwood

    😆

    I have not watched the show yet. Could be a very Handmaid’s tale experience from the sounds of it.

  35. mick says:
    Monday, June 4, 2018 at 10:04 am

    Turnbull cannot go before August as he would not want a seperate half senate election. Usually the national polls are accurate…… onp imploding cannot help their vote…..

    The collapse of ON is likely to help the LNP more than harm them, since most of the ON PV has been drawn from the LNP. ON competes for support on the right. The LNP benefit from the failure of their competitors. Dutton has been pitching to ON-susceptible rightwing voters all along., hoping to undermine their rival.

  39. Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
    26m26 minutes ago
    The longer @ReachTEL remains schtum on question wording of Longman and Braddon polls, the likelier it is they asked about “general election”, which would render the results useless for anticipating by-election results.

    I do recall seeing a screenshot of the question, and it did ask ‘if a general election were held…’.

  42. Andrew_Earlwood @ #682 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:33 am

    @Bemused:

    “Andrew obviously lacks a literary taste for fiction and fantasy”

    Not true. I am currently enjoying ‘The Man in the High Tower’ on Amazon Prime: an ‘Alt History’ with a strong Australian cast – starring Peter Dutton as Ubergrupenfuhrer Smith, Andrew Hastie as his side kick double agent Joe and in a particularly strong supporting role as the Japanese Trade Minister, Kevin Rudd.

    OK, so you are discerning and it is the QUALITY of the fiction and fantasy that matters. 😉

  44. guytaur

    OMG somebody from a rival TV station disses another station’d program 🙂 But I suppose after so many years making tv morning show garbage she would be able to spot crap when she sees it.,

  46. “Sky News tweets

    #BREAKING: A Nationals source has told Sky News Vikki Campion is telling the truth in claiming she was pressured by some within @The_Nationals to terminate her pregnancy.”

    True, or SkyNews coming to the rescue of the Libs??

    Anyone running a sweep on how long before names get named??

  48. Thanks for that Lisa Wilkinson article guytaur. She raises an issue that I’ve also wondered about, as in that neither Barnaby nor Vicki are really thinking about their son by carrying on with this circus.

    5. Barnaby insisted they did the story to make it “dissipate.” Oh Barnaby… this interview was to dissipation what a bucket of kerosene is to the embers of a fire. And whatever else, this whole exercise virtually guarantees it will never disappear for your son. How old will ‘little Sebastian’ be before one of his classmates pulls it up on YouTube and shows everyone in the playground?

  50. imacca @ #695 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 10:48 am

    “Sky News tweets

    #BREAKING: A Nationals source has told Sky News Vikki Campion is telling the truth in claiming she was pressured by some within @The_Nationals to terminate her pregnancy.”

    True, or SkyNews coming to the rescue of the Libs??

    It’s not an either/or prospect. She could have been pressured by both Libs and Nats independently.

    Anyone running a sweep on how long before names get named??

    I vote ‘never’.

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