ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

Comments Page 13 of 23
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  2. So it becomes a matter of what questions were not asked, not those that were. I watched the first five but had to turn it off when it became clear it was a soft interview.

  6. Barney@8:20am
    1. Peter Fitzimmons in an article last week expected hardball interview because they were paid money. He gave an eg. His interview with AFL player Brendon Fevola
    2. The interviewer did ask some hard questions, which they refused to answer.

  7. Who do you believe? ReachTEL or the bookies?

    Current Sportsbet odds

    Braddon
    ALP 1.32
    LIB 2.65

    Longman
    ALP 1.38
    LNP 2.50

  8. BB@11:03pm on3/06/2018
    “If he had been deputy PM of Labor, it would have been end of the line of Labor”
    Unfortunately so true

  9. BK @ #584 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 7:35 am

    New Zealand has set itself a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and a recent report by the Productivity Commission lays out how it could hit that target.
    https://theconversation.com/new-zealands-productivity-commission-charts-course-to-low-emission-future-96281

    Once again, New Zealand demonstrates it is a far more mature and progressive country than us. The article also contains some very interesting embedded links.

    Meanwhile, in Australia we appear to have given up on actually reducing C02 emissions, and are instead considering insane ideas like trying to generate more cloud cover to save the barrier reef – http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-04/geoengineering-the-risky-fix-climate-change/9822022 …

    Following two consecutive years of mass coral bleaching, a team of researchers at the Sydney Institute of Marine Science last year proposed altering the clouds above the reef in a bid to save the delicate coral communities below.

    They advocated “marine cloud brightening”, making larger and more reflective clouds over the ocean to cool the water underneath.

    What could possibly go wrong?

  10. Ven @ #605 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 5:30 am

    Barney@8:20am
    1. Peter Fitzimmons in an article last week expected hardball interview because they were paid money. He gave an eg. His interview with AFL player Brendon Fevola
    2. The interviewer did ask some hard questions, which they refused to answer.

    Oh, they tried sooooooo hard, …

    really they did!!!! 🙂

  11. Interesting quotes from the Guardian article on the mining boom.
    Howard and Co gave just enough away to the middle and lower incomes to buy their consent.

  12. The denials start to come in. What about the Libs and other sundry RW types?

    Nationals: We never told Vikki to abort baby
    EXCLUSIVE NATIONALS MP and senior government staff have lashed out at claims by Barnaby Joyce and Vikki Campion that they were pressured to abort their baby.
    (DT headline)

  13. Into each life some rain must fall.

    Great song.

    Last night TV channel hopping, I was delighted, nay, enchanted with MY ABC showing
    Ta Da 🎺
    Mystery Road.
    Who is that woman, I asked myself when a little lady, of a certain age appeared, dressed in black and accoutered with a semi-auto pistol and disdainful look.
    Well damme, I cried, if that’s not Judy Davis then I’ll be hornswoggled.

    Hornswoggled I’m not. Yes Judy Davis.

    Why wasn’t I told, I ask myself ❓ Brown Bear and Bobo Bear, there’s been some slacking in the entertainment department. Changes will be made because now, after investigation, I have discovered that a couple of films exist which will be of further interest:-
    Mystery Road
    and
    Goldstone.

    Reading through this mornings post as I pretend ignorance (quite successfully usually) in the delights of interviews concerning the mighty, the great and the fallen from grace, I can go on as our PB friends go about their (some only):-

    Venationes, (Latin: “animal hunts”), in ancient Rome, type of public spectacle that featured animal hunts. Contests between beasts or between men and beasts were staged in an amphitheatre, usually in connection with gladiator shows.

    This last to take place in

    So, as the sun set in the East (according to new government regulations) I continue with my plan to develop a plan.

    Toodles, peace and harmony to all — ☮☕

  14. sprocket_ @ #606 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:31 am

    Who do you believe? ReachTEL or the bookies?

    Current Sportsbet odds

    Braddon
    ALP 1.32
    LIB 2.65

    Longman
    ALP 1.38
    LNP 2.50

    Honestly, I believe that Reachtel poll, in a perverse kind of way, takes some pressure off the Labor candidates in Braddon and Longman and will allow them to just keep on keeping on with their campaigns, aided by a touch of the underdog status.

  17. In a slight diversion, I look at the ACL site from time to time. Naturally, their main preoccupation is sex.

    Nothing different today. They talk a lot about freedom. Freedom from anyone interfering in what private schools do, while concurrently they try to interfere in what public schools do.

  18. Thanks BK. I love the Neil McMahon article.

    There was one thing missing from Sunday night’s cash-encrusted TV adventure with little Sebastian, Vikki Campion and this controversial family’s innocent baby, Barnaby Joyce.

    A lullaby.

    Twinkle, twinkle, little star.

    How I wonder what you are?

    How we wonder, indeed.

  19. KayJay,
    Thank you for watching ‘Mystery Road’. I say that because, with so much competition last night from car crash TV, and Masterchef, which I was guilty of watching (because I knew I could catch up on Mystery Road today on iView), I’m just pleased on behalf of my friend, Donella, whose son, Ivan, is the genius behind ‘Mystery Road’ the movie and the series and ‘Goldstone’. Might I also suggest you catch up with his first movie, ‘Toomellah’ as well. 🙂

  20. “If he had been a Labor DPM, and he had claimed what he is claiming, it would be the end of the line for Labor.”

    Oh yeah. Would be repeated and recycled on endless repeat on the Teev. Would be a major “test of bill shortens leadership” . Truffles, not so much i think. Will be interesting to see if the medja actually do track down who suggested the abortion?? they should, but have they the will??

    Or will the Libs start falling over themselves to dob them in??

  21. More
    #BREAKING: @CommBank and @AUSTRAC have settled their dispute over money-laundering breach claims. The lender has agreed to pay a $700 million civil penalty plus legal costs for the case.

  22. Confessions @ #112 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:49 am

    kayjay:

    We watched Mystery Road too last night. I was drooling over Aaron Pederson.

    I truly thought it wonderful.
    In this case I will use a word usually reserved for NRL commentators “SUPERB.”

    I like Mr. Peterson also – but, (he said in a deep voice with an Ozzie accent) in a manly, rough hewed sort of way. 😎

  23. BB@12:23am
    1. As I posted while watching the “interview” that Joyce although he knew that DPM career is over after he came to know that ex-staffer became pregnant he did not resign until a sexual harassment case against him was leaked to MSM.
    2. Ex-staffer said she was hurt with “grey area” comment and complained on the interview that she did not ask him to say that to which Joyce looked at her with bit of a surprise.

  25. Giuliani: Trump Could Have Shot Comey And Still Couldn’t Be Indicted For It

    Congress would have to impeach Trump first before any criminal prosecution could move forward, the president’s lawyer says.

    Candidate Donald Trump bragged that he could shoot someone on New York’s Fifth Avenue and not lose any support, and now President Donald Trump’s lawyer says Trump could shoot the FBI director in the Oval Office and still not be prosecuted for it.

    “In no case can he be subpoenaed or indicted,” Rudy Giuliani told HuffPost Sunday, claiming a president’s constitutional powers are that broad. “I don’t know how you can indict while he’s in office. No matter what it is.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/trump-shoot-comey_us_5b145897e4b02143b7cd633e

  26. Perhaps a threesome could be arranged (Kim, Assad, Trump in a room together).

    Seoul: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has expressed interest in travelling to North Korea to meet Kim Jong-un, North Korean media reported on Sunday, adding another layer of possible intrigue onto the planning for next week’s summit between US President Donald Trump and the North Korean leader.

    The report by the state-run KCNA news agency gave no details on the timing for a possible trip by Assad, who has rarely left Syria since the country’s civil war erupted more than seven years ago. There also was no immediate comment from Syrian officials.

    But even the suggestion of Assad’s outreach to North Korea is certain to ripple through White House efforts to define an agenda for the planned June 12 summit in Singapore between Trump and Kim. It also reflects Kim’s push to shed his reclusive image and seek wider contacts, including apparent efforts underway to hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/outstanding-political-calibre-assad-plans-to-meet-wise-kim-jong-un-20180604-p4zj9m.html

  30. C@tmomma (Block)
    Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:56 am
    Comment #116

    I take your comment gratefully on board – regarding the

    ‘Mystery Road’ the movie and the series and ‘Goldstone’. Might I also suggest you catch up with his first movie, ‘Toomellah’ as well.

    To top it, this morning, displayed on my mini tablet – news of NY Times books of interest to me.
    So, young lady, a good morning to you, me and anybody interested.
    Raining in Newcastle and my exercise program (mowing) severely curtailed I will go about a day without benefit of IPA stooges representative and other of that ilk.
    I am drivelling again. Never mind.
    Toodles. 😇

  35. much of the media commentary on Joyce seems to focus on the softness of the interview.

    Over here in WA the front page of The West Australian features a smilng mother and father with baby under the heading OUR MIRACLE with subhead ‘Scum of the earth’ fail to stop Barnaby’s baby joy.

    The West is, of course, owned by Seven West Media.

  36. ar

    $700 million?

    Anyone in jail?

    That would be enough to get a million Indigenous people into the ‘justice’ system for unpaid fines @ $700 per person.

  38. KayJay:
    Thank you for the “hornswoggle” this morning. The original meaning, while clear enough, is seldom encountered. New meaning posted here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hornswoggle “Dylan Mark Postl (born May 29, 1986) is an American professional wrestler and actor who is known for his work in WWE under the ring name Hornswoggle.” aka “little bastard”

    But mainly my thanks extend to you for the image I was able to post. Should have been titled “Jane is such a good girl.”

    And “piling on” I too was rapt in Mystery Road, and will have to repeat watch it on iView for a second pass. The cinematography was simply beautiful. And the rest was equally good.

  39. $700 million?

    Anyone in jail?

    That would be enough to get a million Indigenous people into the ‘justice’ system for unpaid fines @ $700 per person

    Very true.

  40. Ven says:

    Imaccq@8:57am
    Why are you assuming that it was Nats, why can’t be the other mob?

    Comments by Mr+Mrs Barnyard quoted somewhere made it pretty clear it was someone in the Nats. Hopefully a Bludger can track down the quote.

  41. poroti @ #638 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 6:22 am

    Ven says:

    Imaccq@8:57am
    Why are you assuming that it was Nats, why can’t be the other mob?

    Comments by Mr+Mrs Barnyard quoted somewhere made it pretty clear it was someone in the Nats. Hopefully a Bludger can track down the quote.

    That would require multiple showers afterwards! 🙂

  42. KayJay

    Good morning, and congrats for using the correct “drivelling” instead of the ridiculous “dribbling”. (I’m sure you never dribble) 🙂

  43. “#BREAKING: @CommBank and @AUSTRAC have settled their dispute over money-laundering breach claims. The lender has agreed to pay a $700 million civil penalty plus legal costs for the case.”

    I hope the agreement included a freeze on fees and charges so they couldn’t gouge the fine from customers.

  44. Australasian energy companies are relentless marketers of special plans which they assure us will save us money.

    Sorting through the holiday mail yesterday I came across an offer for gas supply from AGL, a company that I did not know was active in WA.

    But I think they need to update the mailing list.

    The letter was addressed to my ex, who left this address 14 years ago.

    One can only wonder where they got her details.

  45. Confessions (Block)
    Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 9:02 am
    Comment #121

    Great picture. For some reason the way that Ms. Judy is shown standing “hipshot” reminds me of an old cartoon series “Rick O’Shea” with the gunman Hipshot and the dance hall owner Gaye Abandon.
    Nothing to do with anything – much like the PVO article mentioned at

    Confessions (Block)
    Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 9:07 am
    Comment #125

    Today’s PvO on the Reachtel seat polling.

    https://outline.com/KgKZmY

    To continue

    Should you require advice as to how to go about kissing a moustachioed gentleman, I believe I can help. Just go for it ❗

  47. Thank you too to Late Riser and Confessions for watching ‘Mystery Road’. 🙂

    Little bit of humble brag here. Ivan Sen has been to my house! He helped his mom store some stuff in my garage until she could find a new place to live in. I wasn’t hornswoggled but I was tongue-tied. 🙂

  48. “Imaccq@8:57am
    Why are you assuming that it was Nats, why can’t be the other mob?”

    Sorry if i gave that impression Ven. No i wouldn’t assume the Nats, although the Libs will certainly want people to key on that to deflect attention form them. Campion and Barnarby have set the dogs running. “God Fearing Conservatives ” in the Libs or Nats are the ones up for scrutiny on this. RWNuttjobbies of which the Libs have plenty with nasty competing agendas sgould be pissing themselves that they will get outed.

    LoL! If Truffles and his office are SURE they are in the clear may suit them to leak who it was?? 🙂

  49. lizzie @ #139 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 9:25 am

    KayJay

    Good morning, and congrats for using the correct “drivelling” instead of the ridiculous “dribbling”. (I’m sure you never dribble) 🙂

    I can neither confirm nor deny your assumption.
    However, I thank you for your extreme beneficence and kindness.
    From time to time I complain to my most favoured daughter of the person or persons unknown who, during the wee small hours, somehow wets my pillow so that I appear to have been drooling.
    Strange but true. Oh, the shame of it all. ☕

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