ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman

ReachTEL produces a par for the course result on national voting intention, but finds Labor in big trouble in its effort to hold on to Braddon and Longman.

Three ReachTEL polls courtesy of Sky News:

• Nationally, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. Primary votes are Coalition 35% (down one), Labor 34% (down one), Greens 11% (up one) and One Nation 9% (up three, if you can believe that). The poll also includes a question on company tax cuts that has none of the skew of Newspoll’s recent question on the subject, finding 49% in favour and 43% opposed. No sample size was provided, by they are usually somewhere above 2000.

• The good news for Labor ends there, because a poll of over 800 respondents in Braddon credits the Liberals with a lead of 54-46, compared with Labor’s 52.2% to 47.8% win at the 2016 election. The primary votes are Liberal 47% (41.5% at the 2016 election), Labor 33% (40.0%) and Greens 6% (6.7%). Company tax cuts are apparently unusually popular in the nation’s sixth poorest electorate, with 56% in favour and 38% opposed.

• Labor is also behind the eight ball in Longman, where the Liberal National Party is credited with a lead of 52-48, compared with Labor’s 50.8% to 49.2% win in 2016. The primary votes are LNP 38% (39.0% at the 2016 election), Labor 35% (35.4%), Greens 2% (4.4%) and others 14%. I am unclear if this means One Nation weren’t specifically listed as a response option – it might be thought problematic if they were not. Given the largely unchanged position on the primary votes, the LNP’s lead mostly comes down to them getting a better preference flow from respondent allocation in the poll than they did at the 2016 election. Here too company tax cuts were found to have unusually strong support, with 58% in favour and 33% opposed. As with Braddon, the sample was “over 800”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,148 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman”

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  1. According to the SMH report, Joyce has criticised Turnbull for publicly admonishing him. Campion said that the Captain should chew out the Vice Captain on the dressing sheds, not on the field.

    Joyce likened Parliament to a “boarding school”, i.e. full of bullies and nastiness (he should know, having been, in the most childish way, a complete arsehole to anyone who’s ever crossed him).

    These are people from his own side he’s talking about. Jokes aside, he hasn’t blamed Labor or Bill Shorten. He’s blamed his own people.

    If he had been a Labor DPM, and he had claimed what he is claiming, it would be the end of the line for Labor.

    But so far it’s being reported as Reality TV, tabloid pap. He-said. She-said.

    The question is: will this approach change?

  2. bemused @ #487 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    There is a practice in IT known as ‘Refactoring’ where a program has been patched and modified so many times that the best option is to ‘Refactor’ it, that is, a complete re-write from scratch in such a way that it is cleaned up and simplified.

    There is such a process, yes, but it’s not about rewriting (particularly not from scratch). It’s generally more repackaging and relocating existing code, always without changing what the code does and very, very often without rewriting any of the actual code itself.

    So more like rearranging* the furniture in a room than getting rid of your furniture and buying a whole new set of furniture.

    * In this case, “rearranging” may (and frequently does) include chopping the furniture up into pieces with a chainsaw and then sticking the pieces back together in a completely different configuration.


  3. Boris @ #601 Sunday, June 3rd, 2018 – 10:22 pm

    Trump does have appeal.


    *Appears* to be sorting out China over the trade imbalance with China offering concessions.
    North Korea *appears* keen to disarm.
    Iran *appears* to be crapping themselves over what Trump will do and could be ready to offer more concessions.
    USA dollar up and companies *appear* to be relocating there.
    Trump talks and struts and makes threats like the USA is the world’s number 1 super power and it *appears* many Americans may like it.

    So in other words, precisely none of those things have actually occurred. Creating vague appearances of an accomplishment is not an accomplishment.

    USA unemployment is down.

    Obama did that. 🙂

    Trump doesn’t get credit for Obama’s leftover inertia.

  4. Joyce likened Parliament to a “boarding school”, i.e. full of bullies and nastiness (he should know, having been, in the most childish way, a complete arsehole to anyone who’s ever crossed him).

    I’m reminded of the crap Gillard faced, relentlessly. Personally and directly in relation to her gender and almost exclusively from people like Barnaby and his ilk.

    What a snowflake!

  5. “What a snowflake!” indeed.

    To hear this creature squealing about how mean those tewwible Wiberals and Nats are to him makes me want to cry, almost.

    The man has no sense of shame or self awareness.

  6. So, let’s get this straight. Channel 7 paid these people $150k for an interview which was promoted as being a “tell all” story and what they got was –

    The couple refused to answer questions during the interview about precisely when their relationship started and Joyce shut down questions about a public confrontation between Campion and his former wife of two decades, Natalie.

    Joyce was not asked when it was that he revealed the relationship to colleagues in the government.

    Seems like a complete waste of shareholder’s funds if you ask me. It doesn’t seem to have won anyone involved any friends. I will be interested to see though whether there’s any backlash against Ch7 or the advertisers that sponsored it.

    As far as Joyce goes, hes committed political suicide on national TV. He won’t even be able to get a job as a lobbyist either as no-one is going to take his calls or open their door to him. The only job available to him will be as a Sky News contributor. Perhaps he can team up with the likewise unemployable Bronwyn Bishop for a show that will attract a few dozen viewers late at night.

  7. One also wonders how hard our intrepid gals and guys of the CPG will try to find out who the Abortion Extortion gang were.

    As to feeling sorry for Joyce, I believe most people have saving graces. Most. But not Joyce.

    Joyce has a pretty thin collection of them. If ever there was a more classic case of someone bringing about his own downfall, I’ve yet to see it.

    A pisspot bully, who thought he could bluster his way out of trouble, who probably thought he was invulnerable to boot, and who deceived electors into believing he was was a happy (if somewhat idiosyncratic) family man with solid conservative country values has come up stuck in a big way.

    The lady will realise he’s just a fat old fart, sooner or later, or he’ll start casting a roving eye and cop a rolling pin over the head, and then where will he be?

  8. Joyce has made a complete fool of himself.His wife and kids must have been sick watching that interview(if they could stomach it).

  9. For those knocking Shorten, just remember – any other ALP leader would be subjected to the same character-assassination attacks, led by the Government, presided over by Liberal-friendly “Royal Commissioners” and aided & abetted by the entire Australian media. What does it say that the – supposedly left-wing – ABC cut halfway through his pledge to protect them in order to give Matthias Cormann’s presser their undivided attention?

    For Shorten to cut through, he’d have to be actually be given something vaguely resembling even time in the media. When I contrast the way the media have treated him to the way they treated Tony Abbott circa 2012, it’s enough to get my blood pressure running!

  10. Morning all. Like Bill, I save my sympathy for Joyce’s wife and kids, or the poor in this increasingly mean spirited country. But what Joyce said about the coalition is indeed unflattering. It is hypocritical, because Joyce himself has bullied many, but nevertheless sounds plausible.

  11. And Murdoch’s Sydney kennel mate, the Daily ToiletPaper celebrates it’s 17.2% drop in readership by laying on the stupid with a trowel

  12. Regimes that have raided union offices;

    Hilter’s Germany,
    Franco’s Spain,
    Mussolini’s Italy,
    Pinochet’s Chile,
    Galtieri’s Argentina,
    Salazar’s Portugal,
    Turnbull’s Australia.

  13. Paul Bongiorno‏Verified account @PaulBongiorno
    So far on Sunday Night..with less than 5 Minutes to go, absolutely no political accountability. No explanation of the sweetheart deals shunting Vikki around offices with the PM or at least the PMO’s sign off. All at taxpayers’ expense.

  14. Malcolm Farr‏Verified account @farrm51 · 10h10 hours ago

    The serious political issue us he campaigned in NE as the DPM when he knew he wouldn’t be.

  15. Michael Pascoe‏ @MichaelPascoe01 · 9h9 hours ago

    #SN7 fail – there was just one important issue: Canavan’s job for Campion – who knew what and why. Not touched. Must be hot.

  16. I watched for about 5 minutes because I wanted to get a feel for the two characters, and decided that they are both rather boring, self-interested people and the interviewer was just trying for salacious sensationalism.

  17. Joyce knew he would have to give up his job as DPM!?!

    So why did he fight tooth and nail to hang onto it!?!

    Plus, ‘the scum of the earth people you involve yourself with’. That’ll go down well.

    As will, ‘the Prime Minister of Australia doing a door stop interview about it, that’s not on. He should have had words with me in private.’

    Hmm, so trying to sweep it under the carpet and devise a strategy to minimise the damage seems to have been his preferred option.

    Anyway, suffice to say, after that little lot I think it will be safe to say he will be persona non grata in ‘that oversized boarding school’ when he returns to Canberra.

    He probably thinks he can ‘burn it out’ and stand again too. I’m not so sure.

  18. Well that was weird. I’m just watching highlights (lowlights?) of the interview and I noticed that, when Vikki and Barnaby went to put the baby in the bath for a wash, she put a wash cloth over his genitals so they couldn’t be seen as he was being bathed! He’s a baby fcs!

  19. Andrew Catsaras‏ @AndrewCatsaras · Jun 1

    I know & have worked closely with @latingle @barriecassidy & @andrewprobyn. I would vouch for their integrity & professionalism anytime, anywhere & challenge in the strongest possible terms any suggestion to the contrary…especially from a politician.

  20. From Shane Wright..

    Barnaby Joyce has lobbed another grenade in front of Malcolm Turnbull.

    And to quote the former deputy PM, he doesn’t give a s… about the political ramifications.

    Of all the issues raised by the appearance of Joyce and partner Vikki Campion, with their new son Sebastian, on Channel Seven’s Sunday Night the biggest is the savage moral assessment of Turnbull and the Government itself.

    Describing unnamed members of the Government as “the scum of the earth”, Joyce has cast a pall over the entire conservative side of politics.

    His anger, and that of Ms Campion’s, is truly understandable. That some House of Cards wannabes believed they could suggest an abortion as an end to a political problem is just a fresh depth for Australian politics.

    Turnbull took the moral ground with his famous “bonking ban”. The Prime Minister loves his oratory. The cutting assessment of Joyce — “I don’t think that will ever be his Gettysburg address” — showed the former Nationals leader still knows how to get under the skin of Turnbull and make a political point.’

  21. Government ignored live exports advice

    A government-commissioned review into the live export trade effectively recommended an immediate ban that was subsequently ignored. The snap review, ordered by agriculture minister David Littleproud in April, recommended tighter rules on permitted heat stress levels that would have made the live export trade unviable when they came into force on July 1. RSPCA Australia representative Bidda Jones said the government had ignored the recommendation for political reasons, telling Fairfax “had the integrity of this review not been compromised through political intervention, these summer shipments would not be departing”.

  22. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. And as I type this yet another IPA guest on ABC24 appears!

    The interview had plenty of promise but delivered little by the look of it.
    Neil McMahon describes the interview as “a kaleidoscope of awkward horrors”.
    And now Eryk Bagshaw reveals that Joyce boasted of lobbying the Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to support his friend Gina Rinehart’s National Agriculture Day months before he received a $40,000 personal cheque from the mining billionaire.
    Ross Gittins looks at the arguments used to justify an increased tax take,
    Here’s Urban Wronski’s weekly contribution. “Just effing get over it: Hunt’s new motto for a caring, new age, Turnbull government.”
    Richard Dennis writes in detail about the big con: how neoliberals convinced us there wasn’t enough to go around.
    Westpac’s wealth management arm lost the files of hundreds of customers it was supposedly providing with financial advice, whistleblowers have revealed.
    Details of the explosive criminal cartel allegations against ANZ Bank, Citigroup and Deutsche Bank are expected in coming days, with the Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions (CDPP) tipped to formally file charges this week.
    Two multimillion-dollar wage theft group actions will be filed in the Federal Court on Monday on behalf of hundreds of Australian door-to-door and direct sales workers. The young workers were allegedly paid well below the legal minimum wage for sales and charity fundraising for international direct marketing companies AIDA and Credico. When will some proper action be taken to put a stop to these rapacious bastards?
    Adele Ferguson tells us that the franchise industry is in the firing line as the joint parliamentary inquiry hots up.
    The share economy is a façade that allows companies such as Uber to flaunt social values at the cost of fair wages, writes Sochanda Thach.,11561
    Justin Trudeau has described US tariffs as “insulting” to the shared history of the US and Canada as the fallout over Donald Trump’s tariff moves continued.
    Some parts of NSW and Queensland are seeing one in 20 year drought conditions, but the issue has escaped the national political agenda.
    Richo has worked out Porline’s problem. She’s just not smart enough!
    From North Korea to Kim Kardashian, Trump has dispensed with the ‘adults in the room’ and is going it alone.
    The Turnbull government maintains Liberal senator Lucy Gichuhi is in the clear after fresh concerns were raised about her dual-citizenship status.
    Infrastructure Australia will pitch a new incentive program for states to introduce road user charging and outsource public transport services at the AFR’s infrastructure summit. And the march of privatisation continues.
    Amanda Vanstone looks at the flight politics of Italy and compares it to Australia.
    Chinese aid money was used to fund a $1 million bribe to the then Prime Minister of Papua New Guinea, Sir Michael Somare, as part of Beijing’s push to exert greater influence in the Pacific.
    A very good weekend column from Peter Fitzsimons.
    Hooray! Educational psychologist Andrew Martin says what has annoyed me for years by explaining how for Year 12 students in NSW, their English mark accounts for at least 20 per cent of their ATAR. Mandating that so much of one’s ATAR must be sourced from one school subject introduces systematic bias against those who are disproportionately more likely to struggle with that subject. I wouldn’t mind so much if it was actual English language that was taught.
    The Australian’s Joe Kelly laments that One Nation’s civil war has escalated amid damaging accusations that internal divisions within Pauline Hanson’s Senate team were central to the government’s failure to pass a new public interest test that could have blocked the merger of Australia’s two most militant unions.
    The former head of EnergyAustralia’s retail arm says the energy industry has reached a tipping point and company behaviour is at an all-time low as the industry tries to rebuild the perception of electricity retailers.
    Labor’s national president, Mark Butler, is gearing up for a bruising fight with the right faction of the ALP and with some elements of the left, telling supporters he will submit a rule change democratising Senate preselections to be debated at the party’s national conference.
    Amazon has $4.5 billion riding on US and EC moves to raise new sales taxes. Australia looks like collateral damage.
    After Ireland’s abortion vote, where does the Catholic church go now?
    Tony Walker says that Australia needs to reset the relationship with China and stay cool.
    New Zealand has set itself a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2050, and a recent report by the Productivity Commission lays out how it could hit that target.
    The Tories haven’t just popularised Islamophobia – they’ve gentrified it. The lack of pressure on Theresa May to act is an alarming indication of where right wing politics is taking Britain.
    Fresh claims of sexual assault and hazing at a North Adelaide residential college, St Marks, have sparked calls for its board to be dissolved and for university students to have mandatory consent training. Charming stuff!

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding sums up the interview.

    As does Mark Knight.

    A couple of good ones from Mark David.

    Glen Le Lievre gives us a brief history of One Nation.

    Ouch! Mark Knight and the One Nation flock.

    Alan Moir and the AMP board.

    Pat Campbell has Morrison doing some shopping on Amazon.

    Just a few more in here.

  23. Crikey

    “ You just look at Sebastian and think, boy, man you’ve caused some problems.”
    — Barnaby Joyce

    The former Nationals leader and deputy PM takes a swipe at his son, who apparently initiated an affair with a staffer, created an entirely new job for them so as to avoid scrutiny, moved into free accommodation from a businessman and political ally, wracked up some questionable travel claims and expense entitlements, and then finally accepted $150,000 for an interview to largely avoid the whole mess.

  24. The Australian’s Joe Kelly laments that One Nation’s civil war has escalated amid damaging accusations that internal divisions within Pauline Hanson’s Senate team were central to the government’s failure to pass a new public interest test that could have blocked the merger of Australia’s two most militant unions.

    So, companies are allowed to merge to increase their clout, but Unions can’t!?! Give me a break! Good on Peter Georgiou for standing up to this latest attempt to bully unions into submission.

  25. Jeez BK

    Thanks for the Dawn Patrol

    I’ve made a few notes and will try to stave off thoughts of going into stasis until normal transmission resumes.

    Problem – when I awake from my self-imposed Van Winkle retreat – and time travel is a reality;
    to which era should I then travel ❓

    Aargghh ❗

  26. Having successfully avoided ‘the interview’ last night, ‘highlights’ are being rammed down my throat on morning TV and in the newspapers. Not amused!

  27. One quote I read from the SMH article on the Joyce and Campion interview, is Joyce wtte.’knew he would never be DPM again but continued more out of spite than logic CV.

  28. “I can’t wait for the venationes.”

    With the country awash with ‘hunting rifles’ and ‘sporting’ trophy tourism booming, I think the Romans have that covered.

  29. This is far more interesting than “the interview”. The crayfish has more nous than Barnaby.

    A crayfish who sacrificed its own limb to survive a boiling pot of spicy soup at a restaurant in China has become an online hero.

    Footage shows the crustacean gripping one of its own claws before detaching it and making a break for freedom, with others inside the pot destined for diners’ plates.

  30. Andrew_Earlwood @ #590 Monday, June 4th, 2018 – 8:03 am

    Having successfully avoided ‘the interview’ last night, ‘highlights’ are being rammed down my throat on morning TV and in the newspapers. Not amused!

    The problem here is if you did not watch the interview you are uninformed. If you did watch the interview you are misinformed.

  31. I’ll survive JR. if one can learn to survive DDT’s omniposts by scrolling by, then one is well equipped to get through the Beetrooter bonanza of merde ..

  32. Reading this hurts. The conservative short term thinkers have won.

    Australia just experienced one of the biggest mining booms in world history. But even at the peak of that boom, there was no talk of the wonderful opportunity we finally had to invest in world-class mental health or domestic violence crisis services.

    Nor was there much talk from either major party about how the wealth of the mining boom gave us a once-in-a-generation opportunity to invest in remote Indigenous communities. Nope, the peak of the mining boom was not the time to help those who had missed out in decades past, but the Howard government thought it was a great time to introduce permanent tax cuts for high-income earners. These, of course, are the tax cuts that caused the budget deficits we have today.

    Millions of tonnes of explosives were used during the mining boom to build more than 100 new mines, but it wasn’t just prime farmland that was blasted away in the boom, it was access to the middle class. At the same time that Gina Rinehart was becoming the world’s richest woman on the back of rising iron-ore prices, those on the minimum wage were falling further and further behind their fellow Australians.

    Like Joe Hockey, Rinehart saw the problem of inequality as having more to do with the character of the poor than with the rules of the game: “If you’re jealous of those with more money, don’t just sit there and complain. Do something to make more money yourself – spend less time drinking or smoking and socialising, and more time working.”

    Australia isn’t poor; it is rich beyond the imagining of anyone living in the 1970s or ’80s. But so much of that new wealth has been vacuumed up by a few, and so little of that new wealth has been paid in tax, that the public has been convinced that ours is a country struggling to pay its bills.

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