BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its gradual movement to the Coalition.

With the only poll this week being Essential Research’s best result for the Coalition in 18 months, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its slow and steady trend this week in shifting 0.2% to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. No new leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot. Full results as always through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  2. This is all about protecting his company’s Chinese interests nothing more. Like the mafia, the Trump potus is about using a legitimate front (ie the WH) in order to enrich the family.

    Emoluments clauses abuse FFS!

    President Trump said late Friday he had allowed embattled Chinese telecommunications giant ZTE Corp. to remain open despite fierce bipartisan opposition on Capitol Hill, defying lawmakers who have warned that the huge technology company should be severely punished for breaking U.S. law.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/congress-threatens-to-block-deal-between-white-house-china-to-save-telecom-giant-zte/2018/05/25/1db326ba-604a-11e8-9ee3-49d6d4814c4c_story.html?utm_term=.8f7e93555861

  8. Shades of what the Liberals here do in govt.

    President Trump moved Friday to roll back civil-service protections that federal employees have enjoyed for a generation, making it easier to fire poor performers, curtailing time employees can be paid for union work and directing agencies to negotiate tougher union contracts.

    In three executive orders the president signed before the holiday weekend, Trump took his first significant steps toward fulfilling a campaign promise he made to overhaul a federal bureaucracy he told voters was awash in “waste, fraud and abuse.”

    The changes have been championed by Republicans who have sought to rein in the size and reach of the federal bureaucracy of 2 million, which under Trump has been gradually shrinking through hiring freezes and unfilled vacancies.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-takes-aim-at-federal-bureaucracy-with-new-executive-orders-altering-civil-service-protections/2018/05/25/3ed8bf84-6055-11e8-9ee3-49d6d4814c4c_story.html?utm_term=.7518b915cbd8

    If they were serious about budget repair they’d never have passed those tax cuts. But this isn’t about economic responsibility but ideology hence these kinds of measures pass without blinking.

  9. Trump further snubbed. Seriously, how did he not see this coming?

    North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, met unexpectedly with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on Saturday to discuss salvaging a canceled summit meeting between Mr. Kim and President Trump, Mr. Moon’s office said, a new twist in the whirlwind of diplomacy over the fate of the North’s nuclear arsenal.

    The two leaders met for two hours on the North Korean side of Panmunjom, a “truce village” inside the Demilitarized Zone that separates the two Koreas, said Yoon Young-chan, Mr. Moon’s spokesman.

    Mr. Moon and Mr. Kim held their first summit meeting on the South Korean side of Panmunjom on April 27. Their second meeting, held in secret and announced only after it took place, came amid doubts about the future of Mr. Kim’s planned summit meeting with President Trump.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/26/world/asia/korea-kim-jong-un-summit-meeting.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

  10. Well, at least Ireland is sensible:

    Ireland has overwhelmingly voted to liberalise its abortion laws, in a referendum that surprised almost everyone by revealing a fervour for change in this formerly conservative, strictly Catholic country.
    Exit polls showed that more than two-thirds of voters wanted to repeal the country’s Eighth Amendment, which in 1983 had enshrined in the constitution the right of life of the unborn equal to the right of the mother, effectively banning almost all abortions.

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/irish-anti-abortion-campaign-concedes-it-has-lost-referendum-20180526-p4zhqk.html

    And at least there are still national leaders who are not simply aping Trump.

  14. The decline of religion in the West has been one of the mist remarkable and far-reaching social changes in the last couple of generations. Ireland is just catching up.

    In the 1950s, the Big Churches held sway over average people. By 2000, most churches were nearly empty on Sunday, with a shrinking, aging congregation. That might might be one of the reasons for the increase in fundamentalism. Churches are now dominated by a tiny but loud hard core of fanatics.

    The USA is different, but maybe not as much as it seems. The evangelicals are a powerful, influential and noisy minority.

  17. Twitter
    Tony Burke
    @Tony_Burke
    A fact many have forgotten: Barnaby’s by-election was called straight away and the AEC then declared his win in record time. As a result he arrived in parliament just in time to vote against High Court referrals for MPs from both sides. His vote stopped the referrals. #auspol

  18. $150,000 paid out to Joyce and his mistress for an interview on Channel 7. The media is sick in the head.

  19. The by-election and declaration of Joyce in extra quick time is just another of the hallmark characteristics of the Turnbull LNP government. Turnbull no more than a princely puppet leader directed with misinformation and deception from his masters. A right wing government, in a South American authoritarian regime style, for the benefit of an elite minority.
    The budget tax proposal to enhance the position of the elite. The use of cheap workers given dodgy work visas. The persecution of the public service. The suppression of the press. The refusal to share information. The persecution of workers organizations. Tax concessions for the well-off. The demonisation of the unemployed and disabled. The allocation of government funds to supporters. The lack of transparency.
    Turnbull is the leader in name of an appalling government, hanging with an ever increasing degree of manipulative missives and false information to achieve confusion. It is just scare mongering at its bullying worst.

  20. Watching the European Cup final. Is Sergio Ramos the most skillful cheat in world football? He has taken Saleh out by injuring his shoulder.

  21. Steve
    “$150,000 paid out to Joyce and his mistress for an interview on Channel 7. The media is sick in the head.”

    So are any viewers.

  22. No wonder the Coalition want to flatten the tax rate on their hilariously-named ‘Middle Class’ (in actuality the 1%):

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is the highest paid politician in the OECD, new figures show, earning up to 10 times the average wage – the second highest disparity with the majority of workers in the developed world.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/at-528-000-a-year-turnbull-s-pay-is-highest-of-any-leader-in-oecd-20180526-p4zhp5.html

  26. KayJay,
    By George, I think you’ve got it! Both front pages (The Weekend Australian for the Slow Learners 😉 ).

    As per usual it is what is said in candid, unscripted comments that tells all, not the carefully scripted and edited interview.

    So it is proving with Barnaby Joyce. Hungry for attention, suffering Relevance Deprivation Syndrome he goes to the fluffers at Channel 7 for a ‘hard’ interview. Plus, to satisfy his hunger for money, he asks for the Baby Rootbeet to be paid!

    If he was a female, he’d be called a shameless hussey. As he is male, a shameless hustler will suffice.

    Barnaby, we can see the joins in your cheap suit!

  27. I bet those greedy cafe owners who said their staff would have to work less hours this week due to the NAB outage yesterday affecting their revenue, will be the first in line to ask for compensation from the NAB. And they won’t pass a cent on to their staff via increased hours or a compensation bonus. Yet these are the very same people we are supposed to trust the Coalition about when they say that if Penalty Rates are further cut it will result in higher wages for those same cafe and restaurant workers!

  28. important that remuneration for offices in its jurisdiction be maintained at appropriate levels over the longer term to attract and retain people of the calibre required for these important high level offices

    They’re dreaming. What value in Turnbull? Abbott? Billson? Macdonald? …

  30. Has Barnaby promised to give 50% of the interview money to his ex wife and daughters? Is he still paying anything for their support?

  35. What we do know about MH17 is that it would not have been shot down if it had a flight path outside the war zone. A choice made by the airline to save money. The governments should be pursuing the corporation for compensation.

  39. How much have we learned about the Venezuela problems in the media – and how little about Brazil?
    I received an email from a colleague in Sao Paulo, summed up in one word – Bad!
    There has been anti-science, anti-indigenous and anti-environment government for the last two years.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/25/brazil-protests-latest-temer-clears-trucks-highways-army
    Add Turnbull, Trump, May. And all the other quasi-totalitarian countries.
    Is New Zealand the last stand for humanity? Ok, and Canada.

  40. Barney in Go Dau @ #384 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 8:00 am

    A summary of overnight events in Ireland!

    Big smile!!!!

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-27/abortion-referendum:-ireland-votes-to-liberalise-laws/9803848

    I am thinking now about Frances McCourt and what he would have thought of this wonderful turn of events.

    Francis McCourt (August 19, 1930 – July 19, 2009) was an Irish-American teacher and writer. He won a Pulitzer Prize for his book Angela’s Ashes, a tragicomic memoir of the misery and squalor of his childhood.[1]

    Thinking of the book reminds me of drunken nights with a friend Paddy (of course) almost crying and foaming at the mouth singing

    The Ballad of Kevin Barry.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysH86MMwPs8

    Tears.

  42. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Eryk Bagshaw tells us that at $528,000 a year, Turnbull’s pay is highest of any leader in OECD. IMHO this is not an issue given the salaries and bonuses taken by very many business executives.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/at-528-000-a-year-turnbull-s-pay-is-highest-of-any-leader-in-oecd-20180526-p4zhp5.html
    The much-diminished influence of the Catholic church in Ireland was confirmed as the country overwhelmingly voted to liberalise its abortion laws.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/irish-anti-abortion-campaign-concedes-it-has-lost-referendum-20180526-p4zhqk.html
    Katharine Murphy opines that if we can’t manage sophistication in our diplomacy with Beijing, consistency would be useful
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/26/andrew-hasties-contribution-to-our-china-effort-curious-and-curiouser
    “Cowardly” specialists charging patients “egregious” out-of-pocket fees have been condemned by delegates at the Australian Medical Association’s national conference in Canberra. Bastards!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/it-s-outrageous-doctors-slam-practice-of-blackmailing-patients-20180526-p4zhoe.html
    Employers could be thrown behind bars for deliberate wage theft if the Labor government is re-elected at the November Victorian election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/26/victorian-government-pledges-to-introduce-jail-terms-for-wage-theft
    The excuses offered for latest school shooting has Peter FitzSimons lost for words.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/excuses-offered-for-latest-school-shooting-have-me-lost-for-words-20180525-p4zhj2.html
    Hear hear! Nick O’Malley says what needed to be said about Australia’s religious right.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/christians-all-in-a-huff-about-thomas-the-tank-engine-while-real-threat-to-children-is-ignored-20180525-p4zhlr.html
    Michael Koziol also writes on the breakout of the culture war.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-are-absolutely-in-a-new-culture-war-religious-freedom-next-on-the-liberal-agenda-20180525-p4zhho.html
    Barnaby Joyce’s $150000 TV interview has raised the ire of some inside the Coalition.
    https://outline.com/Z22aa2
    Paula Matthewson says Turnbull is sitting prettier than we think.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/25/opinion-polls-better-for-government/
    Nicole Pedersen-McKinnon explains the hoops o go through to get childcare subsidy.
    https://www.smh.com.au/money/planning-and-budgeting/think-you-ll-get-the-new-childcare-subsidy-not-unless-you-act-20180525-p4zhgs.html
    The NSW government seems to think that killing dolphins, turtles and rays is fine. But catching a whale? That’s a totally different story.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/collateral-damage-too-brutal-from-nsw-shark-nets-20180525-p4zhjr.html
    Matt Wade looks at Dominic Perrottet’s plans for Sydney in 2039, with the population set to hit 7 million. Quite illuminating.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/preparing-for-the-challenges-of-2039-20180525-p4zhik.html
    The Parents and Friends Association at one of Sydney’s most expensive private schools has resigned en masse over concerns it had been structured to avoid paying tax on hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of fundraising activities. Now, was it ethics or was it self-preservation that drove tis action?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/parents-group-quits-at-top-private-school-over-tax-dispute-20180526-p4zhpd.html
    The NAB has promised to compensate customers who suffered financial losses as a result of the outage, which began at approximately 7.50am yesterday ad went for six hours.
    https://outline.com/enrG7C
    And CBA home loan applicants will now have to reveal their total borrowings on everything from school fees to credit cards.
    https://outline.com/kjWnNk
    A new study shows that tobacco health warnings are burning out.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2018/05/25/tobacco-health-warnings-burning-out/
    Three men were injured and a man in his 40s charged with a string of offences including possession of cocaine, as a spate of post-match violence at AFL matches continued this week. Charming!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/come-here-footage-shows-violent-post-match-brawl-at-etihad-20180526-p4zhqs.html
    The US is ripping immigrants’ families apart. That’s torture, says Jessica Valenti.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/26/week-in-patriarchy-immigrant-families-ice
    David Marr tells us how Portnoy’s Complaint made Australia a better place.
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2018/may/26/philip-roth-how-portnoys-complaint-made-australia-a-better-place
    Jacqui Lambie’s on the lookout for love!
    https://outline.com/4P7s5A
    Lyle Shelton will run for the Australian Conservatives’ Senate ticket in Queensland. Please let us not have our Senate afflicted by this foul being!
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/26/lyle-shelton-to-run-for-australian-conservatives-senate-ticket-in-queensland
    We have two options, says Jane Salmon. Raise the Medicare levy for NDIS and support autism, or destroy human rights and breed more austerity.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/inequity-autism-spectrum-disorder-and-the-cost-of-ndis-cuts,11530
    The average per square metre price of green-field land sold by the territory in Canberra has almost doubled in the past seven years, from $499 to $948, the second-most expensive in the country.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/act/canberra-s-land-prices-double-in-7-years-now-second-only-to-sydney-s-20180524-p4zh86.html
    Father Glen Norman Walsh: A forgotten victim of a Catholic Church predator. Walsh was a whistleblowing Catholic Church priest appalled at the institution’s extensive cover up of his paedophile colleagues and their heinous crimes against young boys.
    https://outline.com/jqE7Gr
    Buyers beware – dodgy fabrics are the real downside of online shopping.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/style/2018/05/26/fabric-online-shopping/

    Cartoon Corner

    Paul Zanetti has Trump’s deal-making worked out.

    Good work from Glen Le Lievre.

    Ouch!

    A few more in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-27-2018-20180526-h10kzr.html

  44. From the BK Files.

    The excuses offered for latest school shooting has Peter FitzSimons lost for words.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/excuses-offered-for-latest-school-shooting-have-me-lost-for-words-20180525-p4zhj2.html

    According to the politician it was because: “We threw God out of school.” Or perhaps because society “[allowed] abortions.”

    Maybe it was through “the break-up of families or violent movies and particularly violent video games, which now outsell movies.”

    And let’s not forget unarmed teachers. “We have to arm our teachers … if another person has a gun, the best way to stop that person is with another person with a gun.”

    But say, do you suppose the solution might be to deny such easy access to guns in the first place? No. “This is not about guns … This is about us, as a culture.”

    The solution then? “We need to get down to one or two entrances into our schools.” No words.

    What to make of this ❓
    Lizard brain” refers to the oldest part of the brain, the brain stem, responsible for primitive survival instincts such as aggression and fear (“flight or fight”), whereas the limbic system is responsible for, among other things, our emotional bonding to other creatures–other humans such as family members and friends, …

    Atoms are really small. So small, in fact, that it’s impossible to see one with the naked eye, even with the most powerful of microscopes. At least, that used to be true. But a recent photograph shows a single atom floating in an electric field, and it’s large enough to see without any kind of microscope.

    I wonder then, how to capture the image of the space in a human brain, where empathy resides. Is this a proper field of study for particle physicists?

  47. KayJay @ #394 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 5:30 am

    From the BK Files.

    The excuses offered for latest school shooting has Peter FitzSimons lost for words.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/excuses-offered-for-latest-school-shooting-have-me-lost-for-words-20180525-p4zhj2.html

    …

    I wonder then, how to capture the image of the space in a human brain, where empathy resides. Is this a proper field of study for particle physicists?

    My understanding of the field is that you must go through “self interest” before you arrive at “empathy”!!! 🙁

  48. Insiders is back to a groupthink panel.

    Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    2h2 hours ago
    Coming up on #Insiders at 9am, @barriecassidy interviews Health Minister @GregHuntMP + @mpbowers talks pictures with @sbsnews’ @marija_ziv. On the couch are @annikasmethurst, @FinancialReview’s @PhillipCoorey + @PoliticsFairfax’s @markgkenny. Join us! #auspol

  49. It seems to me that many politicians in the US are crying crocodile tears at the interference by Russia in their electoral processes, when all along for many past decades the US has been more than enthusiastic about interfering in other ‘sovereign’ nations’ elections.
    I see Andrew Hastie as just the latest by the US effort in Australia, along with all the Heritage Foundation, NRA and other ‘Think Tanks’ sponsorships of the IPA and many of our most right wing institutions.

  50. KayJay @ #391 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 8:30 am

    From the BK Files.

    The excuses offered for latest school shooting has Peter FitzSimons lost for words.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/excuses-offered-for-latest-school-shooting-have-me-lost-for-words-20180525-p4zhj2.html

    According to the politician it was because: “We threw God out of school.” Or perhaps because society “[allowed] abortions.”

    Maybe it was through “the break-up of families or violent movies and particularly violent video games, which now outsell movies.”

    And let’s not forget unarmed teachers. “We have to arm our teachers … if another person has a gun, the best way to stop that person is with another person with a gun.”

    But say, do you suppose the solution might be to deny such easy access to guns in the first place? No. “This is not about guns … This is about us, as a culture.”

    The solution then? “We need to get down to one or two entrances into our schools.” No words.

    What to make of this ❓
    Lizard brain” refers to the oldest part of the brain, the brain stem, responsible for primitive survival instincts such as aggression and fear (“flight or fight”), whereas the limbic system is responsible for, among other things, our emotional bonding to other creatures–other humans such as family members and friends, …

    Atoms are really small. So small, in fact, that it’s impossible to see one with the naked eye, even with the most powerful of microscopes. At least, that used to be true. But a recent photograph shows a single atom floating in an electric field, and it’s large enough to see without any kind of microscope.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    I wonder then, how to capture the image of the space in a human brain, where empathy resides. Is this a proper field of study for particle physicists?

    Oh goody! Physicist (ie consider-a-spherical-cow-falling-in-a-vacuum)- kicking time.

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