BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its gradual movement to the Coalition.

With the only poll this week being Essential Research’s best result for the Coalition in 18 months, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its slow and steady trend this week in shifting 0.2% to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. No new leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot. Full results as always through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

  1. Who exactly is prepared to die in a war bw? Surely the one child Chinese aren’t going to be big fans of war? Increasingly feminised armies aren’t likely to have the motivation to fight and die in wars either.

  2. Boerwar @ #773 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 5:57 pm

    BW

    Stop changing the goal posts. You claimed that military might provided leadership. I gave you three examples where military might had its arse kicked.

    You love war, military hardware gives you a hard on, and you’re willing to spend many more trillions than di Natale is on a UBI on your boys toys.

    Where’s the money going to come from to satisfy your lust for weapons of mass destruction? Where’s the money going to come from to replace them when they get wiped out on day one of any conflict we get into?

    Cranking up the printing presses? According you that’s a disaster if it’s spent on people who’ll be dislocated by automation, but a national imperative if it’s spent on the black hole that is military spending.

  3. Dan Gulberry @ #777 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    Let’s see how long my question lasts:

    Ms Downer

    The organisation of which you’re a member (The IPA) has published a 75 point blueprint to transform Australia – https://ipa.org.au/publications-ipa/ipa-review-articles/be-like-gough-75-radical-ideas-to-transform-australia .

    How many of these points do you agree with, and if you disagree with any, which points are they?

    It was gone within the twinkling of an eye.

  4. “So why shut down debate on the topic steve777 ?”

    I’m not shutting down debate.

    The Coalition will not debate the subject. Any suggestion that they have been wrong in any aspect of their policy on the part of Labor brings down howls of outrage from the Coalition and their media allies, as if there were no alternative.

    Why do the Liberals want to debat their plans for Medicare (item 20 on the IPA list, “Co payment in 2014 Budget). Their plans to increase the pension age to 70 (2014 Budget). Their plans to break up ad sell the ABC (item 50). Their plans for $100k degrees. Their determination to do nothing about climate change?

  5. Military spending is good for jobs. Every rearmament in history has created jobs. The decision to go to war, well that’s something different.

  6. They bring out the true face of who wants the Tax Cuts:

    Sky News Australia
    ‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust
    2m2 minutes ago

    . @TheIPA’s @Simon_Breheny on company tax cuts: The Coalition has got to get out there and say they are in favour of the tax cuts and bring them in next financial year.

  7. Downer’s campaign is off to a flying start:

    I live in MAYO and the local community Facebook page is running about 70% comments against Downer. And this is a page that generally spends its time talking about people who cant drive & the best place to get a schnitty!— Sophie Pointer (@SophiePointer) May 26, 2018

  8. DG

    ‘BW

    Stop changing the goal posts. You claimed that military might provided leadership. I gave you three examples where military might had its arse kicked.

    You love war, military hardware gives you a hard on, and you’re willing to spend many more trillions than di Natale is on a UBI on your boys toys.’

    Do stop making up rubbish about my views on war. You appear to be clueless on that matter.

    Your view appeared to be that Adern was a potential leader of the Free World. My original contention in this discussion was that to lead the Free World you need military might and that Adern, who has no military might means that nobody listens to what Adern has to say. She has zip Free World leadership potential.

    Gandhi talked up a storm about non-violence, but when push came to shove, his ‘leadership’ could not save over a million Indians from being murdered. Given the lists of the missing, the actual total is more likely to be nearer four million. Gandhi, it turns out, was a blood-soaked charlatan.

    BTW, if you want people who ARE listened to intently, then you need go no further than Xi, Putin and Trump. The reason is that they dispose of massive military might and they are prepared to apply it.

    Never mind. All is not lost. The Antipodean Long March has started. The Australian Greens hang on Adern’s every utterance.

  9. DG
    Large numbers of my extended families were saved from nasty things like slave labour in German factories, starvation, death on the Burma Railroad, etc, etc, etc, by massive US military might in World War Two.
    Indeed, had it not been for the Americans, I would not be posting on Bludger and then where would we all be?

  10. “Power comes out of the barrel of a gun”.

    I think that Powers is best accompanied with a barrel of porter.

  11. Dan G, BK:

    I do wonder whether the Libs preselecting a woman for an ostensibly winnable seat is itself a concession that they don’t expect to win the seat. If Ms Downer fails at the by-election I can see all manner of men putting their hands up for the Lib preselection at the general election.

  12. Well actually boerwar the Americans had about 400k dead and the Russians about 26m your thanks should in fact be directed to the Russians I think.

  13. Perhaps the Guinness Book of Records would be interested in a new category – “Fastest removal of comments on a Facebook Page”.

  14. Earlier on there was speculation about just who did shoot down the Malaysian plane. Comparisons were made with the shooting down of an Iranian airliner by the US.
    Undoubtedly the blame will go back and forth but the Russians, of course, have form when it comes to shooting down unarmed civilian airliners. A Russian military plane took care of Korean Air 007 747 was it? and afterwards the Soviet pilot was happy to say that he did it and was proud of his achievement in protecting Mother Russia.
    In Crimea, I suspect there was no intention to shoot down a Malaysian plane per se, but the Russians are as good as anybody at blaming somebody else.
    The question of 20,000 Polish officers and intellectuals massacred in the Katyn on Stalin’s orders and then blaming in the Germans is from the usual Russian play book. Even to this day, the downing of the plane bringing the Polish leadership to Russia to accept an apology from the Russians not so long ago – and when the plane came to grief (a Russian built aircraft) caused many older Poles at the time to point the finger back at Russia. In the latter case it seems pilot error was the cause of the accident but old doubts die hard when it comes to the Russians.

  15. Tricot @ #820 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 6:56 pm

    A Russian military plane took care of Korean Air 007 747 was it? and afterwards the Soviet pilot was happy to say that he did it and was proud of his achievement in protecting Mother Russia.

    There was international outrage over that until it came out that the plane was w-a-y off route and had ventured into Soviet Military air space.

    Korean Air Lines Flight 007 (also known as KAL007 and KE007)[note 2] was a scheduled Korean Air Lines flight from New York City to Seoul via Anchorage, Alaska. On 1 September 1983, the South Korean airliner serving the flight was shot down by a Soviet Su-15 interceptor. The Boeing 747 airliner was en route from Anchorage to Seoul, but deviated from its original planned route and flew through Soviet prohibited airspace around the time of a U.S. aerial reconnaissance mission.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_Air_Lines_Flight_007

  16. Privyet from Moscow

    Across Siberia, when asked people’s main beef was that Moscow and St Petersburg soaked up all the money, and they were left with shiity roads and other facilities. They were right.

    Trickle down economics? It is working here in Moscow. Despite commentary elsewhere, this place is booming when it comes to obvious wealth and the trappings thereof. Moscow would put any western city to shame, and with the Soccer World Cup starting in a week, everything is spick and span. Security? Yep. High lifestyle? Yep.

    Further east, a few things stand out. The rust-bucket style abandonded Soviet era factories are everywhere. They just closed down, abandoned, derilict. Same with the collective farms off the beaten track a bit. Probably was a good idea at the time. Secondly this place is decentralised. 144m people and only 15m in the 2 largest cities, next being 1.5m. The villagers nearly all have a 0.5 ha garden, used to go off grid with food. As was explained to me, “Sanctions? What sanctions”.

    Finally, just imagine driving across Australia and seeing trees all the way across. Rivers, lakes, villages, abandoned factories…. one word, vast.

    And the newspapers are great. First page, always a photo of action Putin. Next few pages, Putin activities, a recap of Putin’s budget objectives, more Putin photos with bevvy of smiling constituents. The 90% approval rating and 75% result at the recent election is mostly genuine in my observation.

    And this stuff would not be covered in the western, and certainly not the Murdoch Australian dominated media. Yesterday, Putin opened a nifty bridge they have built from Russian mainland to Crimea, bypassing Ukrainian territory. Of course, Vlad personally drove the first truck over.

  17. Dan……..if every you have flown from Singapore/KL on the likes of BA, you will know that the flight path takes you over European Russia…………for some hours…………..so, hypothetically if a BA flight meandered off course, this would warrant being shot down? I have no doubt today, after 9-11, in the US if a plane was wayward, it could be shot down – however, this does not change the fact that the Russians are past masters at double-talk and secrecy.

  18. ESJ
    Fine point, the 26 million.
    Beyond them, I owe my existence to Stalin, Roosevelt and the little cans of instant sunshine over Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

  19. They might be clever, and the Bacchanalian excess of his drawing is absorbing, but I just can’t warm to Rowe’s cartoons – his caricatures are too grotesque. And his constant portrayal of corpulent male political figures in near or complete nudity is gag-inducing.

    Give me Pope’s neat, efficient portraits any time – true windows to the soul, plus his effortless exposure of our political masters’ humbug, hypocrisy and self-delusion. He just hits the mark, day after day.

  20. It seems the bridge in the Crimea was paid for by the Russian state to mates of Putin’s. The Russian plutocracy have taken lessons out the book written by their US counterparts – mates’ rates I guess you could call it.

  21. Sunday NightVerified account@sundaynighton7
    31m31 minutes ago
    ON NOW: @JacquiLambie is looking for true love. She’s getting some professional guidance from relationship expert & matchmaker Samantha Jayne @ahusbandproject. MORE #SN7: http://yhoo.it/TxR3yX

    Didn’t Lambie resign from parliament? Why is our useless media still latching onto her like seagulls on a piece of fat?

  22. Ophuph Hucksake @ #825 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 9:13 pm

    They might be clever, and the Bacchanalian excess of his drawing is absorbing, but I just can’t warm to Rowe’s cartoons – his caricatures are too grotesque. And his constant portrayal of corpulent male political figures in near or complete nudity is gag-inducing.

    Give me Pope’s neat, efficient portraits any time – true windows to the soul, plus his effortless exposure of our political masters’ humbug, hypocrisy and self-delusion. He just hits the mark, day after day.

    Glad to hear I am not alone in thinking Rowe is overrated and Pope is the master cartoonist.

  23. Tricot @ #823 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:11 pm

    Dan……..if every you have flown from Singapore/KL on the likes of BA, you will know that the flight path takes you over European Russia…………for some hours…………..so, hypothetically if a BA flight meandered off course, this would warrant being shot down?

    Meandering off course is not quite the same thing as flying in restricted air space.

    I don’t trust the Russians, nor do I trust the propaganda put out by a country that has been actively involved in the ousting/overthrowing of democratically elected governments on every continent on earth except Antarctica.

  24. Newspoll

    52-48 to Labor

    Primaries: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 9, One Nation 8, Others 7

    Turnbull: Satisfied 39, Dissatisfied 49
    Shorten Satisfied 34, Dissatisfied 55

    Better PM Turnbull 47, Shorten 30

    Labor Leadership: Albanese 26, Pilbersek 23, Shorten 23, Uncommitted 28

    24-27 May, 1591 sample size

  25. Sprocket,
    Thanks for the View from Russia. It sounds positively dystopian. Do you have to write an Ode to Vladimir if you send internet communications from there which will pass the censors? 😉

  26. James_J @ #821 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 9:30 pm

    Newspoll

    52-48 to Labor

    Primaries: Coalition 38, Labor 38, Greens 9, One Nation 8, Others 7

    Turnbull: Satisfied 39, Dissatisfied 49
    Shorten Satisfied 34, Dissatisfied 55

    Better PM Turnbull 47, Shorten 30

    Labor Leadership: Albanese 26, Pilbersek 23, Shorten 23, Uncommitted 28

    24-27 May, 1591 sample size

    Phew!

    The Coalition threw the kitchen sink at Labor.

  27. Sprocket, thanks for your on the ground observations.

    Back in 2005 we flew from Tokyo to London via the polar ‘great circle’ route which took us across Siberia. What a collection of lakes and rivers all over the surface.

    That part of the trip was routine. After Russia we crossed Scandinavia and Holland. A bit of excitement here was seeing two fighter jets crossing our path at a slightly lower altitude.

  28. Just doing some light bedroom reading on the Burma Railroad.
    There are some astonishing statistics. One group of 400 prisoners did not lose a single man. They had three NEI doctors of much experience of tropical medicine with them.
    Another group of 170 Americans lost just eight men. They ascribed this to the NEI doctor attached to them. He was a Weary Dunlop figure. He would disappear into the jungles and come back with all sorts of bush medicine.
    As for the non-european slaves. Well, the next time it comes the obligatory time of year to feel outraged about Hiroshima and Nagasaki, more of them died than died in either Hiroshima or Nagasaki.
    It just took them a bit longer.

  29. C@t –

    “The Coalition threw the kitchen sink at Labor.”

    Actually, it was the CPG and the rest of the MSM.

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