BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its gradual movement to the Coalition.

With the only poll this week being Essential Research’s best result for the Coalition in 18 months, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its slow and steady trend this week in shifting 0.2% to the Coalition on two-party preferred. The only change on the seat projection is a gain for the Coalition in Victoria. No new leadership ratings this week, so that’s your lot. Full results as always through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

842 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

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  1. Seems like I’m not the only one with ‘issues’ about Smethurst’s take on things political.

    Aso, Mark Kenny’s final observation was verrry interesting. An Australian businessman in China had his talks with the Chinese cut off mid-negotiation this week because the Chinese leadership had contacted the Chinese businessman doing the deal to tell him to nix it.

    If for no other reason, that is the reason Turnbull will go to an election sooner rather than later, before the wheels well and truly fall off the economic momentum that this relationship sustains.

  2. lizzie @ #439 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 9:58 am

    Cheryl Kernot‏ @cheryl_kernot · 20m20 minutes ago

    “Hastie is a patriot,” says A Smethurst. Really? What does that mean? Hastie is an ambitious fundamentalist. Remember when he refused ADF request to remove election photos in his uniform? He refused. #insiders

    Patriot = Septic Crusader.

  3. I missed Insiders I was busy, honest, really I was.

    I will comfort myself with this image and make up my own little stories, just like the participants.😵

  4. Well yes, poroti. But what especially makes Hastie a patriot? Is it because he’s a former serving Defence Force member? In which case I don’t recall Graham Edwards or Mike Kelly called patriots with such frequency as Hastie has been.

  5. bemused @ #388 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:05 am

    lizzie @ #439 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 9:58 am

    Cheryl Kernot‏ @cheryl_kernot · 20m20 minutes ago

    “Hastie is a patriot,” says A Smethurst. Really? What does that mean? Hastie is an ambitious fundamentalist. Remember when he refused ADF request to remove election photos in his uniform? He refused. #insiders

    “Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.”
    – Samuel Johnson

    Not the “Australian Way” (whatever that means) to kick a guy when he’s down, but by thunder Hastie would make a tempting target. 😲

  6. Barney:

    But why is it assumed Hastie loves his country more than anyone else? He has a vacant stare that says to me there isn’t much of anything floating in his head, much less strong emotion for our nation!

  7. Re Daniel Andrews making wage-theft a crime, I’m waiting for Turnbull to say this is un-Australian and announce federal legislation to override Labor in Victoria.

  8. I might just be the picture tricking but who is the female member of the insiders panel?

    Yours truly
    Dedicated non-watcher of insiders

  9. Are there members and senators presently representing the LNP who have possible citizenship irregularities ?
    Why aren’t the Labor Party screaming about these irregularities and the fact that they have not been adjudicated upon by tbe High Court?

  10. If we’re talking ‘Patriots’, then put me firmly in the Mike Kelly camp. Any Australian Defence Force Major who would help expose the horrors of Abu Ghraib, supercedes, any day of the week, a guy who commanded a force who were linked to severing the hand of an Afghan ‘terrorist’ to get his fingerprints!

  11. Confessions @ #451 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:10 am

    Barney:

    But why is it assumed Hastie loves his country more than anyone else? He has a vacant stare that says to me there isn’t much of anything floating in his head, much less strong emotion for our nation!

    That’s not important as it’s all bullshit, so whether he does or doesn’t is irrelevant. 🙂

  12. Golly @ #453 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:11 am

    Are there members and senators presently representing the LNP who have possible citizenship irregularities ?
    Why aren’t the Labor Party screaming about these irregularities and the fact that they have not been adjudicated upon by tbe High Court?

    Simply, Labor cannot get the numbers in the parliament to refer Liberal or Nationals or LNP MPs to the High Court.

  13. C@tmomma @ #456 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 8:12 am

    If we’re talking ‘Patriots’, then put me firmly in the Mike Kelly camp. Any Australian Defence Force Major who would help expose the horrors of Abu Ghraib, supercedes, any day of the week, a guy who commanded a force who were linked to severing the hand of an Afghan ‘terrorist’ to get his fingerprints!

    I agree. Plus he seemed like a switched on guy. Not like the checked out Hastie.

  14. Sohar @ #452 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:11 am

    Re Daniel Andrews making wage-theft a crime, I’m waiting for Turnbull to say this is un-Australian and announce federal legislation to override Labor in Victoria.

    If there’s too much backlash to the idea then they could look at it from another perspective and decriminalise theft from your employer! 🙂

  15. “Simply, Labor cannot get the numbers in the parliament to refer Liberal or Nationals or LNP MPs to the High Court.”

    I haven’t read all the cases, but looking at the top level the High Court has done really really badly on this one, if only the Parliament has standing to refer someone to the HC and the Government uses its numbers, including numbers likely to be cast by people who are not eligible to be in the Parliament, the HC is allowing the Constitution to be subverted.

    It would seem, again, without having got down into the details that the HC is delivering pretty bloody ordinary outcomes, regardless of whether or not they have unimpeachable legalase to get them there, where they have in this term allowed themselves to be used to both protect the ‘Government’ notwithstanding the Government may not have ever had the numbers to have a legitimate right to govern and punish the opposition by moving the goal posts (or perhaps revealing the exciting new law that the goal posts vary markedly from country to country of the other citizenship).

    In a democracy is it the HC’s role to help a Government subvert the constitution and punish an opposition.

    I would have thought not.

  16. Barney in Go Dau @ #456 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:13 am

    Confessions @ #451 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 7:10 am

    Barney:

    But why is it assumed Hastie loves his country more than anyone else? He has a vacant stare that says to me there isn’t much of anything floating in his head, much less strong emotion for our nation!

    That’s not important as it’s all bullshit, so whether he does or doesn’t is irrelevant. 🙂

    Hastie is a Goy Zealot, yearning for Masada.

  17. WeWantPaul says: Sunday, May 27, 2018 at 10:11 am

    I might just be the picture tricking but who is the female member of the insiders panel?

    **************************************************

    Annika Smethurst …… She writes for the Herald Sun.

    In December 2015, Smethurst won the 2015 Walkley Award for All Media Scoop of the Year for her investigation of the “choppergate” expenses scandal surrounding Bronwyn Bishop’s inappropriate use of parliamentary travel entitlements.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annika_Smethurst

  18. Labor bragged about “extreme vetting” , they’ll just have to wear the consequences of their loose relationship with the truth.

  19. Confessions

    Ask the person who gave him the label, then watch them struggle to explain why. It is a meaningless label in Australia. Early adopters of “Patriot” in Australia were the White Power type groups so that gives a clue to the sort of ‘scoundrel’ who adopts it.

  20. The AGL decision not to sell should come as no surprise. The site and infrastructure make it very valuable asset for wind and solar in the new England area as well as, possibly, NSW offshore wind. Tomargo should welcome the improvement in reliability this will bring.
    A complete picture of the situation is needed. Tomargo and others are likely to have contracts that are less than today’s rates. These contracts could extinguish when the Liddel plant closes. This in fact is probably the real issue.
    Phillip Coorey should not be placing himself in the same group as TA and BJ. There is no discussion about “keeping Liddel open” because it is almost 50 years old and completely flogged out. It will close and need to be replaced regardless of who owns it.

  21. “A Murdoch tabloid journalist. I can’t recall her name – Anneka something”

    Thanks for the headsup, that is unlikely to have me dip my foot back into the cesspool of bubble talk and thought that is the Fox news led CPG.

    I would have thought if I was a journalist with pride and dedication, I would be spending all my free time trying to find a way to differentiate the scourge of democracy that is unhinged conspiracy propaganda led by Fox, Breitbart types and echoed by News / Fox and then the entire CPG in Australia from real journalism.

    I know in this fine den of thought that is pollbludger there is a difference of opinion on Assange and his information dump and whether or not it was / is good for society, but I would put it that even Assange fans could agree that when Australian journalism embraced Assange as a noble practitioner of their important art, they collectively and unnecessarily jumped a shark.

    Surely whether you view it as a brave and important sharing of critical information, or a nasty guttersnipe criminal exposure of classified information, dumping big pools of information others have provided without research, analysis or selection has absolutely none of the hallmarks of fine journalism.

  22. “Labor bragged about “extreme vetting” , they’ll just have to wear the consequences of their loose relationship with the truth.”

    Compared to the governments ‘no vetting’ the Labor vetting was extreme, and was based on the best understanding of the legal requirements at the time.

    Of course they should always have caveated that their vetting is only ever going to be as good as the body of law the HC had provided and that the HC can always make up new law as it goes along, it is its job.

    Still the level of carelessness doesn’t come close to the Government’s, and while it was a bit stupid the Government pretty much just lied to the public to avert a constitutional crisis. That their propaganda pretty much won over the CPG and others of very weak intellectual capacity or significant lack of moral fibre, says more about the sad state of the Australian media and electorate than it does about the Labor Party.

  23. Barney in Go Dau

    One of the first things it made me think. If ‘stealing as a servant’ is a crime then why the hell shouldn’t ‘stealing as a master’ be !.

  24. Does anybody know when the Liberals will decide preselection for their NSW and
    Vic seats ? Interesting to see if Andrews/ Abbott and Joyce recontest.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if they make a call following super Saturday.

  25. “Fairfax actually.”

    So at the shallower end of the Australian media cesspool, but not a reason to turn on insiders.

  26. Annika smethurst struck me as having a very partisan take on the politics of the week. There is no doubt she votes Liberal and she is entitled to vote for whomever she likes but the voting public should expect unbiased commentary.

    The whole content of Insiders was very one sided.
    Liberal policy and thought processes got 50% of time which allowed the interviewee greg hunt to bray about untrustworthy Bill, using poor segues
    Opposition parties represented by One Nation got 40% of time
    Labor got 10% of time in form of gotchas and squabbles re asylum seekers and date of by-election

    Now that the by-elections have been called can’t we have equal time media

  27. Dan G:

    She is definitely a Murdoch tabloid journo. From her twitter bio:

    Annika SmethurstVerified account
    @annikasmethurst
    National Political Editor for Sunday Tele, Sunday Herald Sun, Sunday Mail (SA & QLD) et al. Central Victorian, Nigella wannabe and @Collingwoodfc fan

    annika.smethurst@news.com.au

  28. EDJ Labor still has extreme vetting just because they not 100%, doesn’t mean it’s ‘full proof’.

    Or do you know what ‘extreme’ actually means?

  29. The relationship between the media and both major parties is dubious and co-dependent. Only the Greens have a transparent relationship with the media.

  30. WWP

    No. Fess was right. She’s a Murdoch scribe. I’ve since deleted my comment. I mistook the Herald Sun (Newscorp – Melbourne) for the Sun Herald (Fairfax – Sydney).

    Mea culpa.

    Carry on. As you were.

  31. “The relationship between the media and both major parties is dubious and co-dependent. Only the Greens have a transparent relationship with the media.”

    I know the media is just largely contemptuous of the greens are the greens simply contemptuous back? Honestly I have no idea of the greens media policy and what they would do if ever they won government in their own right, rather than being a damaging parasite on the side of a Labor government.

  32. Edwina StJohn @ #464 Sunday, May 27th, 2018 – 10:24 am

    Labor bragged about “extreme vetting” , they’ll just have to wear the consequences of their loose relationship with the truth.

    Ahhhh glad your back Edwina. You still haven’t explained your claim that 50% of the population of Israel+Gaza+West Bank is Protestant. Still waiting with eager anticipation.

    Vetting relied on information provided by individuals and the understanding, at the time, of the High Court’s position. Some information was not complete and the HC shifted ground.

  33. “Mea culpa.
    Carry on. As you were.”

    No worries.

    If you work for News Corp you do work for the fox empire and that empire is clearly bad enough that you should take a good hard look at yourself in the mirror, at which point if you have any soul or any integrity left at all you’d immediately go and prepare your resignation.

    Obviously I understand that many lower level fox enablers need a job and a salary and in our economy of extreme winners and losers it isn’t always possible to leave a job, you are just hanging on so as not be relying on the ‘safety net’ that is Australias cruel and unjust punishment of poor people, just because you are working for an evil propaganda machine that damages democracy and society significantly with its deliberate untruth.

    And I don’t see Fairfax as quite that bad, but they certainly aren’t a noble part of the solution to the fox problem, as some would place them.

  34. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 16m16 minutes ago

    I wonder what son Sebastian needs more, $150k, or some privacy and agency (ie: not to have to review the circus of his early life in later life?)

  35. And I don’t see Fairfax as quite that bad, but they certainly aren’t a noble part of the solution to the fox problem, as some would place them.

    I don’t see it as the role of Fairfax to be the solution to the Fox News problem, but rather public broadcasting should be the factual, straight news reporting counterbalance to News Corp shrill, biased whingeing.

    The problem here however, is that the ABC is so cowed into doing ‘balance’, balancing the facts with anti-facts (AGW anyone?) that it is useless in performing a counterbalance role, and in many instances simply regurgitates the News Corp lines anyway.

  36. In late February, Joyce told Fairfax Media: “I don’t want our child to grow up as some sort of public display.”

  37. More political correctness from the ABC.

    The title of the piece.
    Does medicare funding go to wealthy kids.
    Poorer children in Australia are less likely to receive there share of medicare funding.

    Lots of graphs lots of BS, nothing about the real issue absolutely nothing about what everyone knows but are not game to say. Hmmm now let me think now I absolutely know that children of poorer families love their children just as much as children of wealthier families but anyone and absolutely everyone in child care services, nurses, Doctors the whole lot understand that many not all, not all but many far to many are not as good at caring for their children as wealthier families. Yeah I said it, see that is what you can do when not constrained by PC. Same goes for education but no lets blame the Government for not spending enough. Oh and we must keep our head buried deeply in the sand and remember political correctness does not exist.

  38. Depends where we get to as a country in 20 years, if the LNP run the country for that whole period of time at the end without money Sebastian won’t have much of a life at all, limited opportunities to education, limited access to healthcare and either a low paid 50 hour a week job or a social safety net that doesn’t provide enough safety to live.

    I’m assuming 20 years isn’t long enough for the LNP to introduce indentured service or some other kind of loosely disguised slavery but I could well be wrong on that.

  39. Labor politicians all of whom are paid more than 200k per annum sympathising with low income earners. It’s quite funny.

    No doubt they all support world peace and gun control too. Just like Sandra Bullock.

  40. Steelydan,
    So you prefer your ‘political correctness’ from the Sky crew at night? PC can swing both ways you know!

  41. By way of atonement for my sins of yesterday (I bought The Australian to use as paint mask), I advise that I am now in Raymond Terrace McDonalds and am about to liberate a copy of the Daily Telegraph to use for the same purposes.

    P.S. Barnarby really is a scumbag, isn’t he? Think of the thousands of newborns who WON’T get the benefit of Daddy and Mummy selling the story of their adultery and dodgy use of public funds.

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