Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 3 of 28
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  2. ALP will not win the next election as they always put us into debt and only the LNP give us surplus’s and ALP will lose the seats of Longman and Braddon in the coming by elections to the LNP…..

  3. Gives us surplus’s what?! I’m dying to know.

    Also… forgetting that the Libs have doubled the debt in their near FIVE years in Government.

  5. A July 7 super Saturday by-election date would indicate a late rather than early election. Apart from heading off opponents in the Liberal party backroom, there is no reason why Turnbull can’t delay the election until May 2019.

    Either that or test the waters for a possible spring federal election, which could be a goer if the Liberals win Braddon and/or Longman. However I don’t believe they will although, so an election next year is more likely.

  8. I’ll believe the by-elections followed by a Feb/April election will happen when I see it announced.

    These are all clear cut vacancies… what are they waiting for?

  11. @caf

    I agree, however Malcolm Turnbull will go to an election if the Coalition believes they have a realistic chance of victory, if no such prospect happens then parliament will sit until the latest possible date which is in May 2019. The House of Reps can sit until November 2019, however that would mean a highly unlikely half-senate election be held in May.

    @j341983

    If the Coalition can win at least Longman then a spring election is highly likely. If they don’t then an election in autumn next year is likely between March and May.

  12. Thanks for the link, and your note about respondent-allocated prefs, William.
    It will be too much to hope Ipsos poll will receive anything like the attention that Newspoll receives, by MSM and sundry commentators.
    But we can be sure it will rattle members of the Fed. LNP.
    Which makes me happy.

  13. @Maude Lynne

    I would like to know what Coalition internal opinion polling has to say, they must certainly be truly awful for the Liberals in Western Australia. Because the state party has decided they won’t contest the Perth by-election.

  15. Apart from One Nation, the one I can’t predict is what the “Hard Right” voters are going to do. Since they despise Malcolm Turnbull, therefore I believe One Nation’s vote at the election is going to be considerable probably nearing the levels they recorded in 1998.

  16. @Tristo
    David Crowe didn’t discuss a state breakdown from Ipsos, but I’m quite sure their internal polling offers them no good news.

  17. As William mentioned;

    Interesting change in respondent preferences.

    The result in two-party terms, with the Coalition on 46 per cent and Labor on 54 per cent, is a significant shift from the result five weeks ago when the Coalition lagged by 48 to 52 per cent.

    The latest result is based on preference flows at the last election and would see the government lose up to 20 seats if replicated at the ballot box.

    When respondents were asked how they would allocate their preferences, the result in two-party terms showed the Coalition trailing Labor by 47 per cent to 53 per cent compared to a 50:50 result five weeks ago.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-loses-ground-to-labor-in-budget-tax-battle-20180513-p4zf29.html

  18. I’m not sure we’ll be getting state breakdowns from Ipsos in future. They seem to have been cut from 1400 to 1200 samples, and may have decided that the state sub-samples are too small to publish now.

  25. Proving once again that being arseholes is in the LNP DNA, the NSW Department of Finance and Services plans to combine the fines collections branch ( which chases you to pay up, and staff are expected to meet collection KPIs or targets) with the services branch (who currently hear appeals for clemency, and can cancel fines if warranted). No KPIs for clemency, of course.
    A blatant conflict of interest.
    A bit like the heartless RoboDebt disaster.
    Don’t bother appealing, just shut up and pay up.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace/fine-debt-collection-changes-and-job-cuts-labelled-cash-grab-20180510-p4zek6.html

  26. Tristo @ #99 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 9:41 pm

    @Tom the first and best

    I agree Shorten is a unsung hero, he managed to rescue Labor and have the ALP almost win government after being defeated in a landslide just three years before.

    Not to detract from the amazing work Mr Shorten has done in resurrecting Labor, I think Tony Abbott had a lot to do with that resurrection as well. In addition when Brian Trumble first took over from Abbott the polls had the Coalition winning a landslide. Now that we’ve seen what a fizza Trumble has turned out to be, that was short lived and people have turned up their noses at the Coalition again.

    Once again, the Coalition implosion does not detract from the positive work Mr Shorten has done. He just had a lot of help from his opponents.

  28. I can’t tell which of Hanson’s letter or Shorten’s reply is less honest but Hanson’s is certainly sillier.

    The fact is that Labor putting One Nation last has nothing to do with their voting record and is all about perceptions of them as being racists, xenophobes and nutters.

    As for Hanson she’s just looking for an excuse to justify preferencing the Coalition, so Labor’s refusal to comply with a completely silly request suits her fine.


  30. William Bowe says:
    Monday, May 14, 2018 at 12:34 am

    I’ll add 0.9% to the Coalition and 1.7% to Labor, take 2.1% from the Greens, and weight it the same as Newspoll.

    How did you come up with the “corrections”?


  31. Ray @ #121 Sunday, May 13th, 2018 – 10:44 pm

    I will be putting $500 on a LNP win in longman and Braddon and also on the next election

    Ray if your going to burn $500 wait to place the bet; the way things are looking the possible returns will only increase. High returns; betting market; likely outcome; I’m sure you know the score.

    With regard you seat predictions; congratulations on bringing them back to sane, but unlikely, territory.

  32. Kevin
    To be fare; voting action is not contestable; calling then racists, xenophobes and nutters is just name calling. I don’t think Pauline Hanson believes in anything much other than gaming the system to pick up the election funding $.

  34. IPSOS: 47:53 Respondent allocated
    IPSOS: 46:54 Based on Last election (im pretty sure)
    Newspoll: 49:51 Estimated for next election

    LNP:36; ALP:37; GRN:11; PHON:5; OTH:11;
    LNP:38; ALP:39; GRN:9; PHON:6; OTH:8;

    The main parties are 2 out, seems easy to take the middle point;
    LNP:37; ALP:38; GRN:10; PHON:5.5; OTH:9.5;

    Kevin Bonham uses this formula; (ref https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/09/federal-2pp-aggregate-methods-45th.html)
    Coalition 2PP = Coalition Primary + .181*Green Primary + .398*NXT Primary + .505*One Nation Primary + .529* Others Primary – 0.13

    Which gives Coalition 2PP of 46.5%

  35. Using KB’s formulae on Newspoll primaries gives 46.9, IPSOS gives 46.3%, so despite the varied conclusions, they are pretty consistent.

    (I ignored NXT in KB’s formula)

  36. I should focus on getting my caffine intake up to acceptable levels before posting, i copied the primaries incorrectly for newspoll, has ALP and LNP swapped;
    Newspoll comes out to be 47.5% (if i did it right that time)

  37. Kevin – I assume Labor thinks it is smarter to accuse ON of cosying up to the government than call its supporters racists etc etc. I think that is a fair electoral calculation.

  38. Grunta
    ‏
    Most media have not mentioned Shortens pledge to restore school & tafe funding to cut hospital waiting times MRI scanners for country folk or any other thing in his #BudgetReply but most of all, not a mention of setting up a fed ICAC
    Heads of media may be a little worried

  39. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    David Crowe with the lowdown on the Ipsos poll.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/turnbull-government-loses-ground-to-labor-in-budget-tax-battle-20180513-p4zf29.html
    Here’s Phil Coorey’s take on Ipsos.
    https://outline.com/9Hm8j8
    Yet there’s another side to the story over at The Australian as Simon Benson reports on the Newspoll.
    https://outline.com/Ftnufm
    Michelle Grattan looks at the mixed messages from the pair of polls.
    https://theconversation.com/mixed-messages-in-post-budget-newspoll-and-fairfax-ipsos-96522
    David Crowe says “Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison are learning that “first mover advantage” may work in business but fail in politics.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-reaps-post-budget-political-dividends-as-turnbull-is-left-in-dismay-20180513-p4zf28.html
    Jack Waterford declares that Labor is off and running.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/labor-is-off-and-running-20180511-p4zen1.html
    Jess Irvine describes Morrison’s budget tax cut as “the worst piece of tax policy design in recent history”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/budget-tax-cuts-the-worst-piece-of-tax-policy-design-in-recent-history-20180513-p4zf00.html
    The SMH editorial sees no political gain for the government from the budget.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/federal-budget-lacks-a-political-bounce-for-coalition-20180513-p4zf13.html
    According to the AFR’s Aaron Patrick Morrison is making it harder for the middle-class to find rental housing.
    https://outline.com/VVRA45
    Meanwhile Victorian and NSW state governments are bracing for a multi-billion dollar slowdown in tax receipts as lower property sales and slower price growth squeezes stamp duty receipts.
    https://outline.com/VVRA45
    Shorten has vowed to put Senator Hanson at the “back of the queue” for Labor preferences, accusing her of joining forces with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and his government to give big companies a tax cut.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/shorten-vows-to-put-hanson-at-back-of-the-queue-on-preferences-20180513-p4zf2s.html
    The Canberra Times editorial on how the Coalition promised a roar on decentralisation but only delivered a squeak.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/coalition-squeaks-on-decentralisation-where-it-promised-a-roar-20180511-p4zeto.html
    A meeting of the ABC board in Sydney on Thursday is expected to plan a roadshow campaign to take its case for triennial funding to the public.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/13/abc-cuts-public-campaign/
    Ross Gittins is still pissed off as he tells us why we can’t trust budgets now
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/how-we-arrived-at-budgets-we-can-t-trust-20180512-p4zexf.html
    Urban Wronski piles into “liar” Morrison.
    https://urbanwronski.com/2018/05/13/shortens-a-liar-scomo-your-own-pants-are-on-fire/
    People in America — and in other parts of the developed world where the same effects are at work but less pronounced — are fed up with CEOs chasing the bottom line and they are fed up with capitalism.
    https://outline.com/qxb66p
    A Chinese company shortlisted to build Telstra’s next superfast mobile network and critical West Australian technology infrastructure has bribed foreign officials and faced US criminal penalties for sanctions busting.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/corrupt-chinese-company-on-telstra-shortlist-20180512-p4zexr.html
    The Federal Government has vowed to lift the lid on the “silent epidemic” of endometriosis, detailing its plan to educate doctors, teachers and employers about the painful condition affecting 700,000 Australian women.
    https://www.theage.com.au/healthcare/people-have-never-heard-of-the-word-plan-to-tackle-endometriosis-20180512-p4zey7.html
    News Corp’s war on Facebook is a decade in the making
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/news-corp-s-war-on-facebook-is-a-decade-in-the-making-20180511-p4zet3.html
    Japan’s Mitsubishi Corporation is backing the joint venture that is working to solve South Australia’s future energy needs with a “virtual pipeline” project that would see liquid natural gas imports linked to a new firming capacity power station.
    https://outline.com/UzUAxx
    Matthew Lesh opines that the government’s new cash ban will be ineffective and unenforceable. A transaction limit will not make criminals suddenly law-abiding citizens – they will flout the rules by using multiple smaller transactions and illegal bank accounts with stolen identities.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/measures-to-tackle-black-economy-are-suspiciously-totalitarian-20180511-p4zero.html
    Let’s get moving with the affordable medium-speed alternatives to the old dream of high-speed rail.
    https://theconversation.com/lets-get-moving-with-the-affordable-medium-speed-alternatives-to-the-old-dream-of-high-speed-rail-95854
    We need new national symbols beyond Captain Cook.
    https://www.theage.com.au/opinion/how-captain-cook-became-a-contested-national-symbol-20180511-h0zyfh.html
    The ACCC has named Coles Express as the nation’s highest-priced petrol retailer in a new industry report.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/accc-names-and-shames-most-expensive-petrol-retailers-20180513-p4zezs.html
    In a torrent of negative press surrounding George Pell, Frank O’Shea goes against common opinion and contributes some words of support.
    https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/is-george-pell-really-such-a-bad-guy,11491
    Yet another franchising horror story.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/mouldy-rotten-produce-franchisees-reeling-from-aussie-farmers-direct-collapse-20180510-p4zek4.html
    Four leading aviation experts have agreed the disappearance of flight MH370 was the deliberate act of someone on board.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/05/13/mh370-60-minutes/

    Cartoon Corner – a shamefully small lot today.

    David Rowe on the WorldVision stage.

    Mark Knight takes Trump to Asia.

    Roy Taylor with the ABC’s budget woes.

    Jon Kudelka on the leadup to Super Saturday.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/24dba8d9531edd9963380d3885ba7376
    A paltry collection in here.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-14-2018-20180513-h100h8.html

  40. Shorten_Suite

    Tony Abbott got a 10 point bounce as preferred PM in 2015 post budget – and four months later he was on the backbench

  41. Not sure at this stage what all this means but Michael Avenatti thinks he is on to something significant at Trump Tower :

    Michael Avenatti‏Verified account @MichaelAvenatti

    And to be clear – by “warning ignored” I am referring to the refusal of various parties to come clean and the failure of various parties and news outlets to stop with the personal attacks on our side. Keep pushing us

    ‘Details to follow’: Michael Avenatti cryptically tweets photos of Trump Tower meeting with Cohen and Flynn

    Michael Avenatti, the attorney for adult film star Stormy Daniels, just dropped a Mother’s Day surprise that should worry President Donald Trump and his former attorney, Michael Cohen.

    In a message posted to Twitter on Sunday, Avenatti said that he was ignoring legal warnings from Cohen.

    The tweet included three photos of Michael Cohen in Trump tower with multiple people, including disgraced National Security Adviser Michael Flynn.

    The significance of the photos was not immediately clear, but Avenatti promised that additional details would follow.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/details-follow-michael-avenatti-cryptically-tweets-photos-trump-tower-meeting-cohen-flynn/

  42. lizzie @ #140 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 6:59 am

    Shorten_Suite

    Tony Abbott got a 10 point bounce as preferred PM in 2015 post budget – and four months later he was on the backbench

    Ouch! I can feel the burn from here!

    Maybe the Labor Party took my advice from last night to muscle up to the Coalition? Turn the derision up to eleventy!

    Nah, probably not. The Coalition just ask to be mocked. 🙂

  44. lizzie,
    Because you know who benefits from the Black Economy? Students, Pensioners and the Long Term Unemployed, whose community supports them with a little bit of cash in exchange for odd jobs here and there. How else can they survive on the paltry handouts the government provides!?!

  45. C@t

    This also struck a chord with me

    Cash is not only an important protection from state power, it also provides privacy from partners and families, and financial institutions and businesses.

    ASIC has warned that a sign of financial abuse is being compelled to tell your partner or family how your money is being spent. A common method to avoid abuse is to use cash to hide your transactions from electronic records that the abuser can see.

  46. lizzie @ #143 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 5:25 am

    C@t

    I am surprised to find that I agree with most (but not all) of this piece and it is written by a scion of he IPA.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/measures-to-tackle-black-economy-are-suspiciously-totalitarian-20180511-p4zero.html

    I wonder if the IPA is aware of any problems that would not be fixed by a tax cut?

    I’m in full agreement with the Government’s proposal to limit the size of cash transactions and I think the IPA is concern trolling, particularly given the irrellevant insertion of a spiel on tax cuts.

  47. Ray (or whatever you’re calling yourself today….)

    ‘I will put 500 dollars on the LNP to win the next election…’

    There are sites where you can do that. I suggest you go there.

    ‘… and Turnbull will be the best PM that we have ever had.’

    Note the ‘will’. It appears that you, like you many others, know that he isn’t anywhere near close now but still hope he might get there one day.

    Most of us would settle for Turnbull being not the best PM eva, but having a half-decent go at the job. Most of us have given up on that actually ever happening.

  48. grimace
    Their paranoia on ‘taxes’ is quite amusing really. It is so easy to adopt this as a policy as long as they ignore the social consequences.

  49. According to Channel 9 news – it’s all positive news for Gilderoy from the post budget polling “big poll boost for Malcolm Turnbull” was the lead in line, then the story regurgitated the most positive aspects of Newspoll. Brazen campaigning masquerading as ‘news’.

    The sooner a future Labor Government facilitates the euthanasia of the traditional media in this country the better off we will all be. Can you imagine a country without the Rupeverse? I can. I call it New Zealand …

  50. Motives for the IPA-bot’s ‘concern’ are revealed in this line.
    .

    “The best way to combat illegal activity is to cut red tape and reduce taxation.”

    Didn’t The Rodent tell us that the GST would sort out the ‘black economy’ ?

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