Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 thoughts on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 4 of 28
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  1. Andrew_Earlwood

    I was not impressed by Fifield’s statement wtte that the ABC was privileged because it had a guaranteed income compared to the commercials. Talk about missing the point on purpose!

  2. lizzie,
    I prefer cash mostly, as do a lot of women suffering DV who scrimp and save enough cash to get away from abusive husbands who control the bank accounts. I know my mother did.

  4. C@tmomma

    I’m in heartfelt agreement with you. One OH used to give me the weekly ‘housekeeping’ and then dictate how and where I spent it.

  5. Despite conflicting poll results Channel 7 only told its viewers about Newspoll and the “gain” for Turnbull.

    The main reason Shorten doesn’t get better results is the BIG BUSINESS media one sided reporting. Sadly the ABC goes down the same road yet is rewarded with bigger cuts. In my opinion a fair media coverage may see Shorten ahead of Turnbull

  6. O’Brien, who is as compelling answering questions as he was asking them over the decades, says cutting more corners will weaken the ABC. He predicts tough decisions lay ahead.

    “You can go on about this and you can sound like a bit of a wanker, but this is a truth. A healthy media is an absolute cornerstone of a healthy democracy. Public broadcasting, I believe, is fundamental to a healthy media. It has played a huge role over many decades contributing to a healthy culture broadly — socially but also politically. I think it’s at risk.”

    For this he blames our political classes. O’Brien recalls Malcolm Turnbull approaching him at an ABC function at Parliament House years ago when he was the opposition communications spokesman. “The first words that came out of his mouth were: ‘The ABC is more important today than ever.’ Where is that mindset now? It has disappeared.”

    https://outline.com/4EnrH8

  7. “The best way to combat illegal activity is to cut red tape and reduce taxation.”

    I suppose you could stop all illegal activity by making everything legal.
    You could stop tax evasion by abolishing taxation.
    All very logical.

  8. Australian Conservation Foundation’s Basha Stasak said the new listings were both recognition of the hard work of scientists and an indictment of government policy.
    On one hand, Ms Stasak said the listings were an important first step in putting plans into place to protect those species. On the other, she said it was evidence of a political mindset that favoured development over conservation.

    “It’s just a further indication of the crisis we’re facing in Australia,” the ACF nature campaign manager said.

    “There are now almost 2000 species on the

    threatened

    list and there’s really a lack of money to fund the recovery efforts that are needed to get these species off the list.

    “And it’s a sign that our national environmental laws are really failing to protect the critical habitat they need to recover.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/conservation/dozens-of-animals-and-plants-join-australia-s-threatened-species-list-20180512-p4zexo.html

  9. Oj well I was out by 1 on my New England polling night prediction of 50/50 newspoll by the budget.
    Still the trend is there and suckers have fallen for the reporting of the Grand Seven Year Plan but he glorious leader.
    Bill ain’t gonna get the chance to show how good a PM he could’ve been…..but Tanya might….

  10. BirdLife Australia says eastern curlew numbers have dropped by 80 per cent over the past three decades due to the destruction of their habitat along Australia’s east coast.

    The bird, not to be confused with its noisy cousin the bush stone curlew, takes up residence on mud and sand flats from Cape York to Tasmania.

    They are known for their long bill and legs and eerie call and use their time in the country to fatten up before making their return.

    BirdLife Australia’s acting head of conservation Dr Jenny Lau says the bird is already critically endangered and she fears they will become extinct in the years to come.

    She said direct Government action is needed to protect Australia’s coastal habitats.

    Fat chance when coastal development is in fashion. Mangrove swamps and “dirty mudflats” are not what developers want to see. International feeding grounds have been under development stress for years.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-10/calls-for-the-government-to-save-eastern-curlew-from-extinction/9746248

  11. ‘Buckle up’ says Team Trump as the Mueller investigation rolls over into its second year.

    The Mueller operation, like the former Marine Corps platoon commander who leads it, is secretive and methodical. Ten blocks west in the White House, President Trump combats the probe with bluster, disarray and defiance as he scrambles for survival.

    The president vents to associates about the FBI raids on his personal attorney Michael Cohen — as often as “20 times a day,” in the estimation of one confidant — and they frequently listen in silence, knowing little they say will soothe him. Trump gripes that he needs better “TV lawyers” to defend him on cable news and is impatient to halt the “witch hunt” that he says undermines his legitimacy as president. And he plots his battle plans with former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, his new legal consigliere.

    “We’re on the same wavelength,” Giuliani said. “We’ve gone from defense to offense.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buckle-up-as-mueller-probe-enters-second-year-trump-and-allies-go-on-war-footing/2018/05/13/e3d15fbe-546b-11e8-9c91-7dab596e8252_story.html?utm_term=.66291a567705

  12. morning all

    Surprised by the Ipsos poll. It is usually coalition friendly. 54/46 as compared to Newspoll, 51/49. I’ll take Ipsos thanks!

    PhoenixRed

    Your link to the Latest Avenatti story. He had made very clear statements over last few days, for those to come clean on these shady money dealings. If they didn’t voluntarily do so, he would do it for them. He was not bluffing. He is doing assymetrical warfare. It is fascinating to watch

  13. Actually Avenatti said this in tweet a few hours ago.

    Michael Avenatti
    Michael Avenatti
    @MichaelAvenatti
    ·
    2h
    And to be clear – by “warning ignored” I am referring to the refusal of various parties to come clean and the failure of various parties and news outlets to stop with the personal attacks on our side. Keep pushing us. #consequences #basta

  14. Auction results here in Melbourne once again show a market that has slowed down dramatically over past month. Homes are going for considerably less than a few months ago. Anyone who took out a mortgage recently, would not be pleased to see the value of their investment drop so quickly.
    Coupled with rising petrol prices, the coalition are not sitting pretty at present.

  16. Okay so this is what he’s inferring with his tweets.

    Michael AvenattiVerified account@MichaelAvenatti
    40m40 minutes ago
    Why was Ahmed Al-Rumaihi meeting with Michael Cohen and Michael Flynn in December 2016 and why did Mr. Al-Rumaihi later brag about bribing administration officials according to a sworn declaration filed in court?

  17. Katharine Murphy
    ‏
    20 hours ago

    I know. Let’s spend today pretending the Coalition doesn’t need quotas. Because quotas for female representation are pernicious and very different from the unofficial quotas (faction, yes man, number cruncher, drinking buddy, maayyte) #auspol

  18. One of these headlines comes from The Australian. Can you guess which one ? 😆
    .
    “Coalition behind Budget fails to turn around Turnbull’s government’s fortunes”
    .
    “PM’s rating soars as voters back cuts”
    .
    “Coalition loses ground with voters in bruising tax battle
    New findings dash the Turnbull government’s hopes”

  19. Victoria says: Monday, May 14, 2018 at 8:15 am

    PhoenixRed

    Your link to the Latest Avenatti story. He had made very clear statements over last few days, for those to come clean on these shady money dealings. If they didn’t voluntarily do so, he would do it for them. He was not bluffing. He is doing assymetrical warfare. It is fascinating to watch

    *************************************************

    Hi Victoria – I am trying my best to work out Michaels story – it appears to be some great meeting of the minds at Trump Tower involving many of the “characters” – Cohen, Rebecca Mercer, Mooch, Flynn, Qatari diplomats etc etc – and some sort of bribery/sanctions – seems extremely complex – will wait for a simpler explanation

    Agree – Avenatti is definitely a man on a mission – that might just blow the whole mess open

  21. On Ahmed Al-Rumaihi from a few days ago:

    Rapper Ice Cube claims that he and his basketball league BIG3 were targeted by Qatari investors who wanted to use it to reach Steve Bannon
    He and his co-CEO Jeff Kwatinetz claim that Qatari Ahmed al Rumaihi agreed to invest $20.5 million but only paid $7.5 m
    Kwatinetz has made a legal statement saying that the Qatari plans were ‘more about perceived influence in America’ because he and Bannon were friends
    The Qatari investor repeatedly asked about meeting Bannon before he was fired from his job as Donald Trump’s chief strategist in the White House
    And this year when Bannon left Breitbart and lost his backing from hedge fund billionaire Robert Mercer, the Qatari offered to underwrite his political efforts
    Kwatinetz says Qatari investor wanted to meet Bannon to tell him the government of Qatar wanted to underwrite all his campaigning
    Kwatinetz turned him down but investor accused him of being naive and said: ‘Do you think Flynn turned down our money?’
    Qatari investor Ahmed al Rumaihi claims to be acting on his own but is actually a member of the royal family who said the ’emir was like his brother’, claims suit

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5711031/Steve-Bannon-target-bribery-plot-Ice-Cubes-basketball-league-rapper-claims.html#ixzz5FQJc0smu
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  22. Fess

    Who would have thought that a hush payment made to a porn star, would be the unravelling of the Trump imbroglio.
    I am still unclear as to whether Avenatti had figured this out via legal disclosures, or had been tipped off on where to look.
    It seems to be that a great deal of this information, had to have come from some intelligence sources.
    The unravelling of the puzzle is too complicated to have been done via simple channels. Of course and unless Avenatti has resources at his disposable to do this level of investigative work

  23. Victoria says: Monday, May 14, 2018 at 8:30 am

    Who would have thought that a hush payment made to a porn star, would be the unravelling of the Trump imbroglio.
    I am still unclear as to whether Avenatti had figured this out via legal disclosures, or had been tipped off on where to look.
    It seems to be that a great deal of this information, had to have come from some intelligence sources.
    The unravelling of the puzzle is too complicated to have been done via simple channels. Of course and unless Avenatti has resources at his disposable to do this level of investigative work

    *****************************************

    I would be interested to know if there is any Mueller-Avenatti connection ??????

  24. The Western Australian division of the Liberal Party has intervened to save federal MP Ian Goodenough from losing his preselection while, at the same time, the Queensland Liberal National Party dumped sitting minister Jane Prentice.

    Ms Prentice, the Assistant Minister for Social Services and Disability, lost her preselection on Saturday by 256 votes to 103 to Brisbane City councillor and her former staffer Julian Simmonds. The result has sparked a row inside and outside the Liberal Party, which already has a dearth of female MPs.

    On Saturday, as Ms Prentice was being ousted following eight years in Parliament, the WA Liberal State executive meeting in Perth jumped in to save Mr Goodenough, who had lost control of the branches in his seat of Moore and was about to be similarly dumped.

    Consequently, he will be rubber stamped as the candidate for his seat and there will be no preselection ballot or any other process.

    https://outline.com/STV2ZS

  25. https://twitter.com/robfahey

    If one were to look at this page, one would see the following picture.

    To extract the picture from Twitter right click on the photo and then click on Properties which would then show you:-

    Examining this item the Address (URL) would be revealed as

    “https://pbs.twimgDOTcom/media/DcfFALqUwAAE2AnDOTjpg”

    I have now circumnavigated myself and arrived back, just in time for a fresh cup of coffee.

    I guess most will already have this information.

    I will now (soon, real soon now) work out how to extract video from Twitter.

    I have no idea whether this will be of use to anybody. It kept me busy for a while.

  26. Vic:

    I was only thinking yesterday that prior to the Stormy Daniels affair nobody had heard of Avenatti, now he’s practically everywhere, and seemingly two steps ahead of everyone. This is why I was somewhat sceptical of him.

    He must have investigators working this for him.

  27. PhoenixRed

    Avenatti could well be the chosen vehicle to exposure this whole shit show. Meanwhile over at team patriot, they have again mentioned the sex trafficking stuff.
    There is an obvious strategy in play. If it were just about getting Trump, this whole thing would be done and dusted. It isn’t. They have their sights set on players in Russia, China, Israel, AUE, etc.
    I really do need a white board!!!

  28. @Mundo – 8 am.

    I will have to go through the small detail of the Newspolls since the New England Byelection, but my strong impression is that Labor’s primary vote and that of the Greens has been remarkably consistent.

    I also believe that a 2PP vote based on 2016 election preference distributions is similarly consistent.

    The only real movements since the 2016 election in Neespolls has been the collapse and now partial recovery of the LNP Primary vote and the corresponding One Nation surge and now collapse. Also Truffles approval rating has been in free fall only to get a seeming bounce last night (perhaps because he is promising massive tax cuts to his true believers in a few years. However, this maybe just an outlier given the lack of a corresponding surge in other published polls).

    That said, it is very clear that the movement in the headline 2PP is basically down to the changes in preference allocation which appears to be totally fudged and basically wrong.

  29. Fess

    As I said earlier, Avenatti is doing asymmetrical warfare. He appears super smart. I could be wrong, but My Feeling is that he is being guided.

  30. Victoria says: Monday, May 14, 2018 at 8:37 am

    PhoenixRed

    Avenatti could well be the chosen vehicle to exposure this whole shit show. Meanwhile over at team patriot, they have again mentioned the sex trafficking stuff.
    There is an obvious strategy in play. If it were just about getting Trump, this whole thing would be done and dusted. It isn’t. They have their sights set on players in Russia, China, Israel, AUE, etc.
    I really do need a white board!!!

    ***********************************************************

    The network of involved people and situations – be in money laundering, fraud, human trafficking, bribery, kickbacks – is beyond easy comprehension – it is possible to be the greatest crime ever ….

  32. The network of involved people and situations – be in money laundering, fraud, human trafficking, bribery, kickbacks – is beyond easy comprehension – it is possible to be the greatest crime ever ….

    One thing’s for certain, the Trump Imbroglio is way better than any suspense novel or movie!

  34. Fess

    It certainly is. And despite my very huge dislike for Turnbull, Bishop and Co., they are doing good in this space. JBishop gets maligned around here, but she has been working diligently with our allies. She hosted Hillary Clinton this week here in Australia. Party politics don’t come into it when national security is at stake.

  35. lizzie says:
    Monday, May 14, 2018 at 7:49 am
    C@tmomma

    I’m in heartfelt agreement with you. One OH used to give me the weekly ‘housekeeping’ and then dictate how and where I spent it.

    Ever since we got married nearly fifty years ago, my wife has managed our finances, and she and I have had enough personal cash to (nominally) buy a couple of pairs of jeans each fortnight to spend as we will.

    As jeans have risen in price, the amount went up. Now in fact, of course, we spend it on housekeeping costs most of the time, but it is invaluable when you want to buy something that is off the budget, do doubt unnecessary, but that you would really like.

    I can recommend the method, even if it is only a very small amount, say $50 a fortnight.

    Like the use of a car navigator, it helps the marriage!

  38. Vic:

    Party politics should never come into international relations. That’s why Abbott was and Trump is so destructive to world affairs.

  40. don

    For me, keeping separate accounts is the only way to go, even if one person really does the ‘overall managing’.

  41. “She hosted Hillary Clinton this week here in Australia. Party politics don’t come into it when national security is at stake”.

    She hosted Hillary Clinton this week here in Australia. Party politics don’t come into it when warmongering and the military industrial complex is at stake.

  42. Sohar

    if you don’t appreciate our western culture, perhaps you could move to a place more to your liking. The world is a big place. Lots of options to choose from

  43. Fairfax poll
    Assuming 50-50 split of PHONy vote is too generous for ALP, voter preferences still gives 53-47 to ALP when compared to 51-49 as per Newspoll.
    Correct me if I am wrong, Isn’t Newspoll part owned by Murdoch?
    If so, is something fishy going on at Newspoll?
    Having said that the poll 57% people want national debt to be paid make sense. Why?
    Say you have mortgage on your home.
    You would want to pay as much as you can even something extra in you good times so that your debt can be paid off in good time so that if you loose your job or some other bad thing happenned, you can ask your bank for reduction in payments or deffer the payment.
    The advantage of paying more in good times, you will be paying lesser and lesser interest as time goes by and hence in bad times you burden will not be more.

  45. My son is off to study in Kuching, Sarawak (at the Swinburne campus) for six weeks in June/July. Anyone got any tips?

  46. Victoria says:

    Sohar

    if you don’t appreciate our western culture, perhaps you could move to a place more to your liking. The world is a big place. Lots of options to choose from</blockquote>
    Ah, your 'inner PHON' shining through 'Australia,love it or leave it"

  47. WRT to Jess Irwine article in SMH,
    We should have 2 more tax rates between 32.5 & 47
    19% up to 45k
    32.5 up to 90k
    36 up to 150%
    40 up to 250k
    47 over 250k

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