The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
Birds of a regressive, small minded feather flock together. Howard was disparaging of then candidate Obama during the 2007 campaign, calling him the best friend a terrorist could have or wtte of.
Very nasty, and with dog whistling racial undertones which Howard excelled at.
The Foreign Minister says a former ambassador to China has written “profoundly ignorant analysis’’ as he called for her to be replaced.
Even the Chinese hate Bishop and the Libs.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-15/fmr-china-ambassador-says-julie-bishop-needs-to-be-sacked/9762160
C@t
It is 12 months now since I ceased being a regular poster here. You of all people know why, since as I disclosed about 6 months back, it was your unbridled bullying of many people, often supported by GG, that led to my sojourn away from PB. I must add that I did not go out of any sense of fear ……. I just tired of reading it.
So it is quite hypocritical of you to have another lash at me based on what you see as my continual alliance with Bemused. Please back this up with evidence. I suspect your inaccurate perception results from the fact that I stand out, being one of only about 3 posters who have in the past supported him …. mainly women ….. and from the fact that you clearly have a vendetta against both of us because of disagreements we each have had with you in the past. Your penchant for holding a grudge is easily discerned almost every day from your posts.
There are a number of posters here that I have written in support of over the years, when they have been bullied by you and the teflon crew. They know who they are and most have thanked me. Like Confessions, you let no opportunity to slag off at Bemused from the sidelines go by, even though not a part of the original conversation….. as you have done tonight.
My post to Lizzie was not at all in support of Bemused, but to say that her view that Confessions is an angel who never fires barbs, is not supported by fact. But notably you and others see this as support for Bemused when in fact it was criticism of Lizzie’s view of Confessions.
Zoomster then chimed in to criticise my view as being a man’s view which is a highly amusing assessment in itself.
So there we have it. I implicitly criticise Confessions via Lizzie, and straight away the automatic support system cuts in, and you and Zoomster make four. I expect a couple of honorary male sisters will ultimately contribute too.
Greensborough Growler says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 8:12 pm
…..
I hope you are right. But, as I said earlier, reports I’ve read are that the Libs are confident.
Wayne predicted win in Perth; you should not take him seriously.
@Confessions
What ever we think of John Howard, I believe he was a good political strategist. He did make a few strategic mistakes although, including a big one Workchoices which resulted in his government and himself in Bennelong being defeated in 2007. Without Workchoices he could have possibly won a fifth term.
Neither Tony Abbott or Malcolm have come close when it came to being as good in political strategy as Howard was.
For example; Howard would have definitely subjected every MP under an independent audit if the s.44 crisis had emerged when he was Prime Minister.
If Wayne predicts something then do the opposite.You’re bound to be a winner.
lizzie @ #1129 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:07 pm
Sheridan made an ass of himself today on Jon Faine’s program when trying to defend Israeli actions at the Gaza border.
If anyone is unaware, Faine is Jewish by background, but it was idiot Sheridan defending the indefensible.
If the liberals thought they had a chance of winning Mayo they would not have picked Georgina.
Didn’t I tell you that the ‘a pox on both their houses’ voting was on the wane?
Absence of Empathy @ #1154 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:31 pm
Actually, I have never bothered keeping score, but Psyclaw, who I have never met and who lives in a different state, once stated he had kept score over a period of time and guess what? I copped far more crap from Confessions and the sorority than I returned.
Just sayin’.
The argument could be made that the Liberals’ predicament wrt women started with his leadership. All those Lib women backbenchers over the years weren’t called Howard Pot Plants for nothing. Essentially meaning he allowed women to be preselected, but not promoted, they remained forever on the backbench save the odd token woman in the ministry ie Moylan, BBishop, Vanstone and Patterson along with a Nat woman sprinkled here and there.
puffytmd @ #1158 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:34 pm
For the record and to counter Puffy’s smears, I have never murdered or even assaulted a woman and never will. All the men I am acquainted with are of a like mind.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-talks-latest-no-progress-negotiations-eu-uk-european-union-theresa-may-a8351411.html
Stagnation…….
psyclaw @ #1303 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:45 pm
Psyclaw
I have to say I congratulate you upon this stance. I have basically blocked three of the four posters for the same reason. I got tired of it. It was also so meaningless since they added nothing to the sum total of human or my knowledge. I feel sorry that Lizzie gets involved because i think she seems a very nice person, but there is only so much abuse one can cop. However the 5 sisters have been at it for years. 7 years ago they brought me to tears once , but never again.
As for Bemused, well as I have posted many times he is basically a nice guy but has no social skills. I do not think he realises when he is being offensive.
I have had to block him too, which is a pity because sometimes he has comments of relevance.
@briefly,
They should just give up already, i mean, longer than 1 year.
Tristo @ #1165 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
Labor had a Chinese candidate in the State Seat of Mt Waverley last time around.
Glen Waverley is not part of Hotham but is split IIRC between Chisholm and possibly Deakin.
The Clayton part of Chisholm has gone possibly to Hotham.
In the Mt Waverley Campaign we had a big contingent of Chinese Australian campaign workers and most continued on to the Bruce Federal Campaign.
With the new boundaries, Bruce will become the most ethnically diverse Electorate in Australia and has support groups among Indian, Sri Lankan, Afghan, Vietnamese, Chinese, African and other communities.
Tristo @ #1305 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:54 pm
Tristo
We must repeat the Mantra Howard bad, workchoices, lest like Mahatir he revisits us!!!!!!
Thomson Reuters is planning to move its foreign exchange trading business from London to Dublin due to Brexit.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-london-job-moves-latest-dublin-thomson-reuters-forex-a8352216.html
The company has applied to the Irish central bank for a licence, the Financial Times reported.
The group’s forex derivatives arm trades more than $300bn (£221bn) a day, and is currently in the process of being bought by private equity house Blackstone, which is taking over Thomson Reuters trading operations in a $17bn deal.
The forex trading operation is operated by Reuters Transaction Services Limited (RTSL), however, the company said in a statement: “We expect that RTSL will not be able to continue to access the EU market after the Brexit date due to the anticipated termination of passporting rights into the EU.
“Therefore, by establishing a new legal entity in Ireland and seeking authorisation from the CBI (the Central Bank of Ireland), Thomson Reuters will be able to continue to sell and market regulated trading services into the Single Market.
The British eviscerate themselves.
psyclaw,
Isn’t the accusation of ‘bullying’ the last refuge of someone whose argument doesn’t have a leg to stand on and who’s simply playing the sympathy card?
I know why I have Blocked you and bemused, and no amount of revisionism on your part can change the facts pertaining to when and why I did it. Basically, I haven’t forgotten how you constructed an artifice of selective quotes of mine in order to create a false impression of me for public consumption so as to try and colour people’s opinion of me. I understand you are feeling your oats again, lady, but don’t think you can bamboozle me. Or rewrite history. I am not that easy a pushover. Especially by a lightweight such as you.
Scott Morrison as done a great job on this years budget as it will win the LNP the next election.also they will win Braddon mayo Longman and will be the best government since Howard
Thanks for the update on the British banks Briefly, I remember now they specified a deadline of April or May for clarity on post brexit access to Europe.
Not that I have any particular sympathy for British banks.
citizen @ #1245 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:24 pm
Individual Labor members and supporters probably will, but no way will Labor officially assist her, particularly if there is an ALP candidate. If there is an ALP candidate then ALP members are pledged to support and work for the Labor candidate.
@bemused
My mistake, I checked the proposed Chisholm map the neighbourhoods North of Waverley Road are now in Chisholm, those south of it are in the new Hotham. Mt Waverley was in Chisholm and Glen Waverley in Bruce.
Most of the Monash council area is now in the redrawn division of Hotham. It now includes Oakleigh, Notting Hill, Wheelers Hill, Mulgrave, Clayton and Springvale. Also those parts of Mt Waverley and Glen Waverley south of Waverley Road.
I agree with Bruce now being the most ethnically diverse electorate in Australia. Bruce is now composed of Noble Park, Keysborough, Dandenong, Dandenong North, Endeavour Hills, Doveton, Hallam, Narre Warren and Narre Warren North.
Thanks to the person who posted that quick history of Jerusalem a ways back. Interesting read.
For democracy to work properly, there needs to be always at least a possibility that whoever’s in government now might not be in the near future. That’s why we should hope that, if the Liberals can’t sort themselves out, something else fills the void.
…”The ratio of bemused having a go at confessions, to visa versa would be about 20 to 1, for those who care”…
I don’t, nor would I if the names were substituted for others or swapped. I would have skipped over the posts once the arrows started flying.
I’m always amused at this sorority s*it.
Apparently, when several male posters band together to attack someone else, it’s just normal behaviour, the rough and tumble of engagement on a blog.
When a couple of female posters happen to agree about something, it’s some kind of cabal or conspiracy.
C@ and I were in quite vehement disagreement a few days back, but apparently we’re actually united in some kind of secret cult thing, so that mustn’t have happened at all.
Once again, this kind of commentary (the women are out to get us! Run for the hills!) is more a reflection of how pathetically thin skinned certain posters are, rather than having much at all to do with reality.
Apply the same standard to female posters that you do to males – it’s just the rough and tumble of engagement on a blog. There isn’t a conspiracy or a sorority. There aren’t secret handshakes.
Maybe if several people disagree with you, you should consider whether or not you’re wrong, rather than assuming that they’re out to get you.
John R…
The departure of financial corporations from London will harm incomes and tax revenues in GB. The xenophobia of the Brexiteers will cost them dearly.
London is a net tax contributor to the GB system. The areas that voted to Leave are largely tax recipients. They will end up somewhat the worse for wear I guess….such a pity they fell fir the trickery…
Zoom…I entirely agree with you.
zoomster:
But isn’t this the problem? What’s filling the void is just a rabble grab bag of rightwing reactionary numpties? PHON, NXT, Lib Dems, the Nats are nowhere near being party of govt material, yet they are all in their own way filling the alternative to Labor void the Liberals used to occupy.
“For democracy to work properly, there needs to be always at least a possibility that whoever’s in government now might not be in the near future. That’s why we should hope that, if the Liberals can’t sort themselves out, something else fills the void.”
The “Liberals” need several terms in Opposition in order to give them a chance to deradicalise, for business to accommodate to Labor, for the current leadership to move on and the current aspirants to get sick of Opposition and either change their views or leave politics to make money (and pay the right amount of tax).
fess
Well, that’s actually the void I’m talking about! What’s needed is something more cohesive – another Menzian rebirth. But they don’t have a Menzies.
I used to think that the void might be filled by a Turnbull/Rudd alternative party, but of course those two egos couldn’t have held anything together.
I’m at a loss about what happens if the Liberals collapse – a bit like the banks, they’re too big to fail (in some senses). That they will become unelectable seems inevitable, however, and there doesn’t seem to be a way out of that, even in the long term (given the kind of young person the Liberals seem to be attracting).
Yes, ‘deradicalise’ is the perfect description for what the Libs need.
However I don’t see this happening on their horizon any time soon. Morrison, Dutton, Cash, that crazy fat guy from Qld are the party’s future. And then there are the Nationals.
zoomster @ #1333 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:11 pm
Oh that is a real hoot!
Why not a Gillard/Abbott alternative party? They cheerfully collaborated in dragging Labor down to its lowest standing for a long time,
On a more serious note, Tony Burke really impresses me.
He spoke really well tonight and had some great points to make.
At one stage, he read from two documents and asked those present to nominate which was the most difficult. Overwhelmingly one of the documents was chosen.
The easier document was the notorious dictation test from the bad old ‘White Australia’ days. The more difficult document was from the new test Dutton wants to impose on those seeking Australian Citizenship.
I couldn’t care less about the Liberal Party. I am basically allergic to them. I want the party of working people to succeed- to win elections and implement their programs, to nourish a greater equality and a stronger community.
The proposition that democracy is the stronger for the presence of the Libs is a fairly dismal one. They have stood against nearly every reform I can think of.
zoomster:
I reckon looking to the US will give more of an indication of where the Libs will go, and on that front we can expect the crazy to continue for many years to come if the Republican experience is any indication.
Burke is great on the citizenship matter. I’ve heard him in person. He’s persuasive and serious; very lucid. I like him a lot.
“something else fills the void.”
void?? Thats like…..what can be seen by doctors looking in Georgina Downers ear canal??
briefly:
Even as a Labor member I want good government. That requires sound (and sane!) opposition.
Fess….of course, you make a good point. However, the Liberal Party can seldom be trusted. They are usually up to no good
imacca
Poor doctors.
zoomster @ #1318 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 7:58 pm
Exactly zoomster,
In my neck of the woods you have a few examples of this.
Malaysia was finally mature enough that the Government could no longer stave off the Opposition and finally you have change and real choice.
While in Cambodia their lack of maturity still allows the Government to use violence, corruption and intimidation to subvert the Opposition where it is becoming clearer that the people want change.
Myanmar is different again with the Constitution ensuring that the Military maintain control no matter what the people say.
So Malaysia now has a chance of a functioning democracy whilst countries like Cambodia, Myanmar, Singapore and Russia fail the test of having any real opposition.
As you say the potential is there for the Liberals to splinter so what fills the void is important for the overall health of the Country’s democracy.
The “Liberals” are the political wing of Big Business. They represent rich and powerful vested interests, interests that basically want to snaffle up as much of the cake as they can while making minimal (ideally no) contribution. Also they don’t want to be subject to ‘red tape’, i.e. any restriction on their money-making activities to even up the playing field with their much less wealthy and influential customers and workforce or to protect the ‘commons’, the environment and what little they’re not allowed to own.
You see their true agenda in the utterances of Gina Rinehart and other business leaders, the IPA and assorted right wing ideologues. They use fear, lies and bigotry to make up the numbers, as no one outside the nation’s boardrooms and executive suites would vote for them otherwise.
As far as I’m concerned they can stay in Opposition forever.
I just hope Turkey does a Malaysia in the upcoming elections. Erdogan is out of control, unhinged. I don’t get my hopes up though since the possibility of fraud is too damn high.
briefly @ #1331 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:23 pm
Burke understands the issues clearly, especially the implications of the English language requirements.
I’ve been painting quite a lot lately. It’s a totally fascinating thing. I’d almost never done anything with visual media until a couple of years ago. Coincidentally, it was the recollection of violence that prompted me to try to capture ideas and feelings using visual media. That was quite cathartic. I kind of broke in to my consciousness, like a burglar. I ran off with some memories and marvelled at them for a bit. Then I stopped, from doubt and sorrow. And now I have resumed.
I really like it. There is great freedom and very many opportunities to improve; to develop a kind of vocabulary. There are conventions and there is conflict with them too, so there is drama as well as eloquence. It is possible/ or seems possible – to be entirely precise and restrained – to be able to say just exactly what you want. This is a joy for me.
Gorks @ #1338 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:42 pm
After the “coup” clean out it’s probably too soon, unfortunately, to expect the opposition to be organised enough to be competitive.
@Barney
True but this time economy is on the decline and structural issues are starting to bite. Currency is nosediving, inflation is over %10 and unemployment is high. There are a number of signs Erdogan is rattled. Either way, I don’t see Erdogan going away peacefully and I’m afraid this will be resolved on the streets.