The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
from the bottom of the ABC online article on Lucy Gichuhi
… But the party’s immediate focus is contesting the looming by-election in Mayo, having just endorsed Melbourne-based lawyer Georgina Downer as its candidate.
The Liberals are “vaguely hopeful” of winning that by-election, one of three the party is contesting in the wake of last week’s citizenship-related resignations.
(my emphasis)
Vaguely hopeful – would you put $500 on it?
Doesn’t seem likely to me that Sharkie will lose Mayo. Not when up against Georgina.
Who cares whether Sharkie or Downer wins Mayo.
There will still be a Liberal voting member in either case.
Boerwar
‘random fashion’ , You forgot the uber “Air quotes” for that.
A graduate traineeship at DFAT used to be regarded as among the most prestigious in the Public Service. That image was obviously shattered in 2007.
http://blogs.smh.com.au/sit/archives/2007/03/battlers_legup_for_a_downer.html
Scott Morrison as won the next election for the LNP with a good budget which helps battlers and the support for his good budget is winning over swinging voters who our great LNP will win over
Bed time, you tyke.
Harsh but true!
John Reidy @ #1233 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:22 pm
Why would she start now? 🙂
From Amy Remeikis
PEOPLE: IF YOU ARE INTERESTED IN BEING A FEDERAL POLITICIAN AND YOU ARE A DUAL CITIZEN, JUST RENOUNCE THAT SHIZ NOW. GET IT DONE BECAUSE I CAN NOT DO ANOTHER THREE YEARS OF THIS BULLSHIT
This answers the Greg Sheridan’s sons question:
Although originally from Sydney, Sheridan moved to Melbourne in 2006. He is married to Jasbir Kaur “Jessie” Sheridan; the couple have three sons.
I’m taking a punt that the lady is Indian.
Maria O’Sullivan
@mariaosulliv
23m23 minutes ago
Keep your eye out for some important Nauru refugee cases being handed down in the High Court tomorrow morning: CRI026 v Nauru; DWN027 v Nauru and EMP144 v Nauru. These will have ramifications for the interpretation of complementary protection under international law.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 8:42 pm
This answers the Greg Sheridan’s sons question:
Although originally from Sydney, Sheridan moved to Melbourne in 2006. He is married to Jasbir Kaur “Jessie” Sheridan; the couple have three sons.
I’m taking a punt that the lady is Indian.
Almost certainly a Sikh.
And who was the Minister when Downet’s daughter obtained her DFAT appointment?
I seem to recall some comment on it at the time
Then onto the IPA
No doubt wearing fish net stockings which was the memory of Alexander’s time as Opposition Leader before being rolled
Wayne says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 8:24 pm
Tristo
So you agree with me that LNP will win the next election and by elections too
Absolutely Wayne, bet your life savings on it. You’ll make a motza!
Imagine the derogatory headlines if this were Shorten:
Nationals did something for once:
Samantha Maiden
Verified account @samanthamaiden
2m2 minutes ago
BREAKING: Nationals have forced @D_LittleproudMP to delay the planned release of new Live exports report tmw after cabinet discussions today over concerns re number of sheep can be safely transported in summer @SkyNewsAust. New cabinet meeting Monday.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/14/norway-style-option-after-brexit-cant-be-considered-corbyn-tells-mps
Corbyn imitates May.
Mayo betting
Downer 1.40
Sharkie 2.80
citizen @ #1258 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:46 pm
Well that not surprising, his federal colleagues don’t listen to him either!! 🙂
Diogenes @ #1261 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:51 pm
Sharkie looks nice!!!
Diogenes says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 8:51 pm
Mayo betting
Downer 1.40
Shark 2.80
Easy money in backing Sharkie
citizen
TURNBULL ROLLED!
Downer/Sharkie: package different but same same outcome
Zoidlord
CABINET CHAOS!
briefly
DOWNER TRIES TO JUMP THE SHARKIE!
briefly
CORBYN NIXES NORWAY WAY!
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 8:59 pm
briefly
DOWNER TRIES TO JUMP THE SHARKIE!
The Princess is going to find out that politics is a tough gig.
Zoidlord @ #1267 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 8:46 pm
Remember how long ago now that Bill Shorten actually made a decision, like, um, a leader, wrt this issue?
The Turnbull government are still fighting over who gets to drive the clown car!
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 9:00 pm
briefly
CORBYN NIXES NORWAY WAY!
Corbyn, as the Lords said, is an abject coward.
I’m calling bullshit on that. Turnbull has never given any indication he cares about anyone but himself. I can’t see him wading into the Qld LNP in order to save a junior minister nobody’s heard of.
Peter BrentVerified account@mumbletwits
1h1 hour ago
Labor evidently strongly of opinion that a high One Nation vote is bad for them (in Longman). This goes against expressions of opinion from some, eg @AntonyGreenABC and, perhaps, @kevinbonham .
Or have I the wrong end of the stick?
Today’s webpoll
Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham
11m11 minutes ago
Replying to @mumbletwits @AntonyGreenABC
All else being equal Labor would prefer a low One Nation vote to a high one, but all else isn’t equal if that vote comes mainly from people who would have otherwise voted LNP.
briefly
Ah yes, the House of Lords. The go to place for ‘Keeping it real ” opinion 😆
If women are shying away from voting for the Liberals because the party is ‘male, pale and stale’then why would we want that to change? The more irrelevant they become and the fewer votes they get the better IMO. Why encourage them to take on more women if that is ultimately going to help them to defeat Labor?
Darn
‘Why encourage them to take on more women if that is ultimately going to help them to defeat Labor?’
Why?
1. For the all the women in the Australia who have different values from our’s.
2. The Coalition runs the joint about half the time. It would be good if it were even vaguely reflective of the population.
Because the Liberal party is a party of govt. If you want to see what happens to a nation when a major party behaves like a fringe minor party just look at the US where the Republican party has been taken over by crazed religious zealots, ignorant, ideological buffoons and mob-like corrupt thugs.
I bet Barnaby Joyce is behind withholding the report on Live Sheep Export. He’s playing the politics-embarrass the guy who replaced him as Ag Minister and try to wedge Labor.
And what Boerwar said.
Pakistan playing suspiciously in cricket test v Ireland
Bit by bit, Corbyn is being forced to come clean on what he wants.
(1) He does not want free movement of humans. He is absolutely silent on all the downsides. What does this mean for young Brits who want a professional career in the EU, British retirees living in Spain, cheap continental labour doing Britains dirty work, the three quarters of a million polish citizens who provide much of the drive for small businesses? Complete silence from Corbyn.
(2) He wants a Europe in which the UK will continue to fiddle around with the decision making. Yeah. Nah. If the UK is out, it is out.
(3) He wants a customs union more on UK terms than is currently the case. Yeah. Nah. It will certainly be LESS favourable to the UK than now.
(4) He wants no hard border between NI and EIRE. Yeah. Nah. Incompatible with (1) above.
@Confessions
Those people who dominate the Republican activist base are taking over the Liberal Party branch by branch, state by state. They are completely dominant in Queensland because the formation of the Liberal National Party, was a Nationals take over the local Liberal Party.
Oh, and one other thing. Corbyn has acknowledged that UK Labour has an anti-semitism problem and has (again) pledged to get rid of it.
@shellbell…..Pakistan always play suspiciously.
Tristo:
That doesn’t sound good. Here in WA our Liberal party (and National party ftm) have always appeared more saner than their eastern states counterparts. Perhaps however that is just my perception. After all the WA state Libs are led by an ex IPA person.
Did anybody hear of the story of former PM John Howard, applauding Donald Trump’s decision to scrap the Nuclear deal which the Obama administration made with Iran. His signature among with others including former Canadian PM Stephen Harper, were in a letter published in a major newspaper.
What is the Pakistan Team suspicious of?
Is the ball shamrock green?
@Boerwar…I was going to say Pakistan was playing Suspiciously and he has been bowled for a duck…lol
Gasp. Anothery! Howlett falls across the line!
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-15/tas-liberal-candidate-jane-howlett-new-mp-for-prosser/9764196
Good night all. May all your dreams be sweet.
adrian @ #1102 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 5:30 pm
Ummm I think you reversed the numbers.