The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
p
Yes, but it used to be speak softly and carry a big stick.
It is now all Trumpian blare and carry a bigger stick.
Third Coalition infomercial of the day on ABC24. This time Sneering Simon Birmingham and Car Crash Michaelia Cash assaulting our eyeballs and ear drums.
Am I supposed to feel guilty because I have a Y Chromosome?
zoomster says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 11:20 am
don
I provided the link for my assertion immediately after I made it. That you apparently couldn’t be bothered to look at the evidence says a lot about your own attitude.
The link you provided is not showing up on the comment we are referring to.
My quote was:
____________________
zoomster says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 9:11 am
…oh, and btw, frednk’s basic assertion (that children are at more risk from their mother) is only correct if we’re talking about the first month of life.
I can find no evidence for that assertion.
________________
When I go to your quote at 9:11 am, this is what it says:
zoomster says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 9:11 am
…oh, and btw, frednk’s basic assertion (that children are at more risk from their mother) is only correct if we’re talking about the first month of life.
There is no link.
Nor is there a link from you lower down the page, nor on this page.
Can you direct me to the page where you gave the link?
Turnbull govt want to be a law unto itself. Fail with costs 😆
C@tmomma @ #849 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:33 am
Ditto. My absence on this does not reflect anything other than horror. I have perhaps more empathy than others males with women on this issue having been the subject of male violence in a male male relationship, not I emphasise not ever never from my 30 year old partner from another place altogether, my safe place to seek completion, my now married spouse (thank the beautiful Bill Crews) whom some on this blog know by name.
don
I scrolled back, politely, to find the link for you, only to discover that you had a post immediately below the one where the link was provided.
So you really, really, haven’t been a**sed to look at the evidence.
Boerwar @ #516 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:11 pm
Boerwar,
Then instead of sitting comfortable in your home why don’t you actually propose it to him or his government. Coming here day in and out ranting and raving and spouting like just another internet know it all will not change one full stop in any gun laws.
Additionally, could you point me to any report in any media that indicates that a shotgun whether an adler or any other was used in this disgusting act by this disgusting excuse for a human being.
I agree there needs to be some changes to the gun laws, ones that will see the numbers and types of weapons available reduced (to zero if possible) but you will not change anything by ranting and raving on this site, especially when ranting and raving to a majority that already agree with you.
You weaken all your good points and your opportunity to convince others of the need for change because people will just scroll by and ignore your rants, inform and educate with facts, not argumentative point scoring and you will bring more to your point of view.
If you want action, get the populace on board, start petitions, start letter writing to the media, start letter writing groups to the government, do that and I will happily join in but sit here day in and day out pontificating and I will not and I am not sure too many others will either.
BTW, I hope you do not take this the wrong way, I am on your side and agree with your aims and passion but just not your current method. No insult meant I assure you.
Boerwar @ #722 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:52 am
Tear Gas.
So Don, just confirming from your posts above – that the research indicates that in the case of child deaths where the perpetrator is a family member that a male is more than twice as likely than a female to be the culprit?
No one does an Upper Middle Bogan accent like Michaelia Cash.
JimmyD @ #806 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 10:34 am
A veyr fine post well articulated and right on point!
Cheers.
Photographic ID is not required for a domestic flight.
My wife has no ID other than a passport and she usually does not take it with her when we fly inter-state. (at least a dozen times a year)
International airports are under federal control so I suppose the commonwealth could legislate that all people entering one, including those not flying are required to carry it without conflicting with any state law, but they could certainly not do so at a domestic airport.
In Queensland, you aren’t even required to carry a driver’s licence whilst operating a car as long as you possess an unrestricted one.
Regardless, if they wish to behave like a bunch of psuedo-nazi’s, they can all get stuffed.
Have I told you the one about the armed Uzbek customs agents at Tashkent airport finding a plastic bag with white powder in my carry-on? “DRUGS!” they gleefully exclaimed through smelly grins that had several teeth missing.
I calmly explained it was the sugar dusting remainder of some delicious local pastries and they let me go.
All true (except the ‘calmly’ bit).
Another link —
‘The mean age of the infant-victim was 4.9 months old… Perpetrator—The caretaker-perpetrator had a history of abuse in childhood (23%), was male (84%), the biological father of the victim (77%), and a first-time parent (54%)..’
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0145213497001324
I refuse to accept any blame for the wrongful acts of others simply because we both have Y chromosomes.
I have never seen any topic on PB generate so much utter rubbish.
Full Essential Poll here
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
Kayjay@9:15am
I never understood Kayjay. KJ is too coloquial for me
C@tmomma says:
…
r Domestic Violence on this blog just admit that men are stronger than women
…
And finally we get to the crux of the matter; it is not that women don’t mess up; the problem is when men mess up they make a bigger mess.
Good Morning
Reality is reality. I get where Bemused is coming from. It can seem that all men under attack from some comments made. I am referring to culture generally not just here on PB.
My answer to the woman is very simple. The same applies to men being raped with the culture. When men feel attacked they will not listen and change.
The problem is our society is steeped in the violence is good narrative and people you don’t understand are to be treated unequally.
That means yes you put all the measures in place white ribbon recommends.
The first thing Woman need to do is embrace the break down of stereotypes . That means embracing the gender neutral society.
eg. Men wearing dresses to be encouraged.
Break down the toxic masculinity that is taught and you break down a lot of the excuses for the behaviour that is learnt.
Thats a long term change. Its why I support gender neutral causes. We may even get to the point where we give violence XXX ratings and porn R ratings.
This culture change is further along in Scandinavian Countries but they still have problems too.
Its the only way to fix the violence is the way to go response that afflicts so many men who are steeped in the toxic masculinity culture.
I agree Jimmy D made a good post with points all men need to be aware of.
All I say is that woman should be vocal about the reality not attack men in general.
The #metoo movement does that. It attacks the behaviour of men like Weinstein not attacking all men in the process. In fact the #metoo movement has as part of its narrative that this is a society steeped in toxic masculinity.
Men can understand toxic masculinity and work to to lessen that toxic masculinity in both society and themselves. (Note as we have seen not all men).
This way its clear its not men themselves under attack but the toxic masculinity culture that we have let become extant in our society.
bemused @ #866 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:49 am
bemused, I think it’s more a case of accepting the empathy because you are that kind of Sapiens, acknowledging the data (zoomster is providing it clearly) and joining in a sensible discussion about causes and solutions. No one is talking about guilt, although there is room for that in a society which denies the problems and/or starves it of solutions.
C@tmomma @ #823 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 10:52 am
Thank you both, esp JimmyD.
Within misogyny, violence by men against women is denied in many ways, including by claiming it:
– does not exist, or, if it occurs at all
– is attributable to women’s failings, or if women cannot be blamed
– is not exceptional and therefore not attributable to misogyny.
The various denials of male-on-female violence, including the assertion that it is equivalent to other kinds of violence, are implicitly misogynist in themselves.
I should hasten to add that I am not female and therefore cannot claim to properly know the repression experienced by women and girls. But I do have knowledge of violence from the perspective of the powerless child. I imagine there are similarities. And, as a male living in a patriarchal order, I can certainly recognise the assertion of male privilege, male denial, male deception and male power when I see them.
In this debate at PB, the misogyny is very clear. Considering the violence that is implicit in misogyny – as it is in racism – it’s clear that the misogynist is a conspirator with violence and the violent.
Confessions @9:16am
So true. There was no bounce in polls infact it went backwards according to ipsos poll. I could picture a scenario where MT must have been on phone with SMH management and giving them earful.
guytaur
😆 I do find your solutions a little extreme. 😆 I don’t think the wearing of a dress (or kaftan or tunic) would make the slightest difference to an angry man. Just as the wearing of a pantsuit cannot turn me male!!
Am I supposed to feel guilty because I have a Y Chromosome?
No.
They said the change is within MOE. Looks to me almost exactly the same as previous week.
Lacy knickers?
Satin?
frednk
‘it is not that women don’t mess up..’
Not something any woman here has denied
‘…the problem is when men mess up they make a bigger mess.’
Well, yes. But again, you’re deflecting.
I provided stats on children who have been injured by others. If the problem was ‘equally gendered’, there would be no reason why the perps wouldn’t be equally men and women. However, even in the case of reported injuries, the perpetrator was more likely (by far) to be male.
96% of homicides world wide are committed by men. I would think that speaks for itself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homicide_statistics_by_gender
I wish William would enforce his edict that this topic end.
It is boring as bat shit and entirely unproductive.
I get it! Statistically men are more likely to commit domestic violence. It’s wrong. I in no way approve or condone it. I would intervene if confronted by it. I personally treat women and girls with respect.
So too do people like Don who is copping stick on PB.
Enough!
Socrates @ #713 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 7:34 am
You should try reading the article, not just the headline. Our gas exports are lowering emissions worldwide, not raising them. It is just that we are too silly to use the gas ourselves, preferring instead to sell it at a profit and then burn coal 🙁
Zoomster:
Thank you, I found the link on page 15.
apropos of why the LNP are seen as better economic managers. Labor do have a reputation in the media as being reckless with money or more reckless than the LNP as these two articles indicate.
Australia is not prepared for a global economic downturn, the chair of the peak body for company directors has said. Both major parties have promised billions of dollars in tax cuts for low to middle income earners, and the Coalition wants to eventually abolish the 37 per cent tax rate.
But Elizabeth Proust, the chairman of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD), said the Government should be doing more to pay down debt.
Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen agreed Australia was vulnerable and said Labor would make “big sweeping changes” to the budget. “I actually think we are vulnerable and we need to do better on budget repair,” he said. “We need strong sustainable budget surpluses going forward.”
Last week Labor used its budget reply to offer a bigger tax break than the Government’s, at a cost of nearly $6 billion over four years.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-15/australia-not-prepared-for-economic-downturn-aicd-chair-says/9760582
You have companies saying that more focus should be on debt.
Yet, both parties promising billions in tax cuts but labors tax cuts appear to be larger at a cost of $6 billion.
And the next article headlines Shorten offering bigger tax cuts with the article kicking off.
Federal Labor has used its budget reply to offer a bigger tax break than the Government.
Labor leader Bill Shorten has promised to introduce a Working Australians Tax Refund at a cost of nearly $6 billion over four years.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-10/bill-shorten-delivers-his-2018-budget-reply/9748926
Again indicating that labors tax cuts are larger at a cost of $6 billion, it does make labor appear a bit reckless.
lizzie
Your post is exactly the point I am making. The whole pantsuit thing was a misogyinist stereotype used against Hillary Clinton.
The how dare woman pretend to be men by not wearing dresses.
I am just applying the right that men should equally be able to wear dresses.
It destroy that whole toxic masculine stereotype. Men must act in certain ways and woman in others.
That not extreme thats equality. If a boy wants to play with dolls growing up then great. Its better than forcing him to play with toy guns.
I’ve always been confused by people’s use of the phrase ‘mens violence against women’ over ‘Domestic violence’.
Domestic violence is a much more sensible term, as it includes:
Domestic violence by men against their male partner.
Domestic violence by women against their male partner.
Domestic violence by women against their female partner.
These categories are all less common than Domestic violence by men against their female partner.
But why go out of your way to tell these three groups of people that we don’t care about their suffering?
lizzie @ #875 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:57 am
Guytaur is just bonkers.
Ven
‘But why go out of your way to tell these three groups of people that we don’t care about their suffering?’
No one is doing this.
If you can’t follow the discussion, or understand it, I suggest you leave it alone.
Ven @ #847 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:51 am
I’m just old and trying to amuse myself.
Quite harmless. My references relate to books and pictures (movies) and country music- mostly from prior to 1970.
The reference was to the PM wanting (supposedly, to have Police given the power to stop and search without warrant without cause).
I was more or less suggesting that we (the citizens) would like to be able to reverse the situation by stopping and searching the PM (plus associates) before they bankrupt the country prior to turning out the lights and removing the plug to sink Australia to join the mythical Atlantis.
As with any post. Scroll on by. Find what suits you and post about your own interests.
I read most posts, some with a lot more attention than others.
☕☮
No budget bounce whatsoever.Newscorp will eventually make their own polls up to convince themselves that their man is going to win.
ar @9:56am
When any country other than Isreal, India, China sneezes, Australia catches cold
JimmyD says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 11:17 am
…”Well done on totally missing the point of this debate.
The majority of people driving cars aren’t involved in accidents, so I guess we shouldn’t address car accidents, or regulate drivers either!”…
…
This is the same ridiculous argument as the one last night where a hammer was equated to a firearm, and completely discounts the obvious fact that driving a motor vehicle is already highly regulated and involve severe criminal penalties for misuse.
Also, if you want you assertions to be taken seriously, you should definitely continue to insert idiotic Gifs into your statements.
They add a certain gravitas and maturity to any discussion about such a serious topic.
Bemused
I cannot let this pass. When you show any respect at all to Confessions, instead of mocking her so much, I shall believe you.
“Thank you both, esp JimmyD.”
Seconded, it was well worth posting and reading.
I thin some men may not comprehend the different world that women may face at times.
I can walk comfortably alone through the streets of Melbourne, Brisbane Adelaide late at night and early morning without worrying about being attacked always strikes me as a freedom I have as a man that women do not.
C@T, and others. No thanks necessary, but thank you.
I want to second guytaur’s point. Our culture of male privilege, misogyny, and hypermasculinity is the culprit, and the way to address rampant sexual violence, harassment, and abuse in our society is by liberating both men and women from that culture.
When that culture is so psychologically destructive to men, is it any wonder that women experience the fallout?
Zoomster@12:05pm
It appears you mistook somebody for me
I did not make the comments you put in your post
That is the wrong starting point. Fulfillment and joy isnt always in the understanding of something, but often in the absence of it.
@ Zoomster – anyone who uses that disrespectful term is saying exactly that.
They may not be aware that they are saying it, but this is a poor excuse. Now, having been informed about how offensive the term is, it is no excuse at all.
Voice Endeavour @ #885 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:04 pm
The difference is that one woman a week is murdered by a male in a domestic violence situation in this country. After last Friday, we’re probably over budget in 2018. (Oi! Oi! Oi!)
Lumping all domestic violence in together simply blurs the reality, makes sooky men claim they’re the victims and we get the usual suspects bemoaning how unfair it is.
This must stop. As they say, if you are not part of the solution, you are the problem.
SK: Comparison is the thief of joy.
Boris
Another generalisation. Gay men have the same problem as woman.
Its our culture that needs attacking not generalising all men are safe walking the streets at night.
First rule. Violence is not an acceptable way to act.
Violence is the problem. Violence that is encouraged and promoted in our culture by the way it says men must act.
Toxic masculinity of boys cannot have emotions and empathy is what encourages such a widespread attitude.
Boys crying is good thing. Its a boy being natural and true to who they are not denying the emotional empathy they have. In exactly the same way that girls crying is a good thing.
Bemused misses this. He just sees it as bonkers because he is so steeped in that toxic masculinity he just does not see it.