The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
It’s beginning already. No criticism allowed!
There are good articles on the web that also indicate why ASIC was leaning to undertakings with companies rather than taking them to court.
This article puts the cost of three ASIC actions at over $115 million, ASIC lost on Fortescue and had to pay extra costs, in the millions.
http://theconversation.com/low-penalties-high-costs-asic-needs-legislative-reform-23365
Facing such large costs and cut funding ASIC would not have much choice though it sometimes brings it on itself as with this case that cost millions in costs awarded against ASIC.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/asic-suffers-major-blow-as-court-throws-out-prime-trust-case-20171101-gzcjff.html
The solution as other sites have said is to introduce stronger legislation that clarifies the laws and gives ASIC more teeth and penalties, but as the LNP keep reminding us this could scare away investment.
@ GG –
So you’re saying it’s alright to go out of your way to offend a group of people, telling them that their suffering is not important, because there are only a relatively small number of people in their situation.
All domestic violence is bad. All of it must be condemned.
By condemning only a portion of it (even if that portion is high), you are saying that the other portions do not matter.
LU
Comparative Politics 101 certainly was.
lizzie @ #892 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:09 pm
I have commented favourably or supported her posts when they deserved it.
Have you ever bothered to question her attitude to me? And her frequent disparaging personal insults? I at least try to stick to the issue.
bemused
That is as rare as hen’s teeth. Don’t try to slide out of your actions. Why can’t you just ignore her, just as many of us ignore some others’ posts we don’t agree with because we don’t want to be obnoxious?
“Its our culture that needs attacking not generalising all men are safe walking the streets at night.”
True guytaur
the freedom to wear what you want when you want where you want,
The Silver Bodgie @ #867 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 11:49 am
Weird. Guardian version says 53:47
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2018/may/15/the-guardian-essential-report-15-may-results
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 11:55 am
…”Within misogyny, violence by men against women is denied in many ways, including by claiming it:
– does not exist, or, if it occurs at all
– is attributable to women’s failings, or if women cannot be blamed
– is not exceptional and therefore not attributable to misogyny”…
…
Not a single person here, at any point in this discussion, has said or done any of those things.
@Yabba – zoom in on the graphs – they only run up to 8 March.
Looks like they’re still reporting last week’s results?
lizzie @ #906 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:20 pm
I don’t ignore anyone’s posts. I read hers but only ever react to a small percentage.
My responses can be negative or positive depending on the post.
That is how I respond to anyone else.
Have we ever had a government that has grandstanded so often about a threat that is mathematically more remote than a shark attack? And used most often when they are in political trouble.
Absence of Empathy @ #909 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:23 pm
briefly writes crap.
His posts used to be worth reading, but at some point he lost the plot.
Go back and read Don’s post. My SCARCASTIC comment was meant to make as much sense as his silly comment did. I recommend that you follow Zoomster’s advice, and don’t comment on debates you don’t understand or haven’t followed.
Speaking of the ABC, what kind of organisation actively promotes an ‘institute’, whose stated policy is to eradicate it.
adrian
I sometimes think that many ABC ‘personalities’ (hardly reporters) don’t look behind the statements they are given to read. It is the producers who are at fault. They surely must know who the IPA are -dammit, they contact them often enough for panel-fillers.
(The picture originally posted by BK)
Note “Jerusalem, Israel” on the plaque. That of course is totally unnecessary as anyone reading the plaque would obviously be in Jerusalem. Naturally it’s because Trump wants people to know that HE moved the embassy in defiance of world opinion. Anyway, he’s a coward for not going to Israel to personally open his embassy.
Another thing – it’s very annoying how the Yanks refer both city and country, such as “Paris, France” just in case people confuse it with a place in Texas.
Anarchist political parties?
adrian @ #915 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:33 pm
Easy – an organization that is complicit in its own destruction.
lizzie @ #836 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:20 pm
Because stalkers are constitutionally unable to ignore their victims.
That A-o-E and bemused both disagree with and/or dismiss the points made tends to affirm the validity of the argument.
Denial is an instrument of misogyny.
We live in a patriarchal order. It patterns or codes for repression, including the repression of the truth. Patriarchy exists and is violent.
adrian @ #845 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:33 pm
And this:
Rowan
@FightingTories
ABC used taxpayer funds in promoting and building the profiles of Georgina Downer and Jacinta Price prior to announcing their candidacy to run for the liberal party #thedrum #qanda #abcnews24
briefly @ #922 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:40 pm
Whereas writing crap and falsehoods is your preferred instrument of what?
lizzie @ #916 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:36 pm
Yes, Michael Rowland (ABC breakfast?) was on Twitter baiting people that some IPA drone’s appearance on the show would break the internet, or something equally inane.
On the idea that Newspoll might begin making it up to convince themselves (and those old men at the Oz) that their IPA infiltrated heroes will undoubtedly win … I get the impression that Wayne, Les, Gary or Mick or whatever name he chooses to play with, is the new POO = Polling Operating Occifer 😆
Today the best political gift for Labor was released.
The government is cracking down on the polls and wires gouging of consumers with electricity prices.
Time for Labor to run Gillard saying exactly that to counter the coal claim that renewables are to blame for power price rises.
I heard this on ABC News Radio this morning.
The cognitive dissonance contained in that statement is staggering.
Basic logic would insist that if one problem is much larger than a related problem, you would address the first problem as a priority – not to mention that it might also fix the related problem as well.
Also, describing male-on-female violence as a “portion” is not only factually inaccurate, but insulting too.
Voice Endeavour @ #903 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:17 pm
Self serving misogynistic bullshit!
JimmyD says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:32 pm
…”Go back and read Don’s post”…
No.
…”My comment was meant to make as much sense as his did”…
You did not succeed.
…”don’t comment on debates you don’t understand or haven’t followed”…
If I wish to continue to not understand you, I will do so, and thanks for proving my point with the Helen Mirin Gif.
Absence of Empathy – I can’t help you if you don’t want to be helped.
“Basic logic would insist that if one problem is much larger than a related problem, you would address the first problem as a priority – not to mention that it might also fix the related problem as well.”
That might be relevant if they were different problems.
Domestic violence is one problem, regardless of your attempts to divide it into 4 problems. We should focus on fixing the problem of domestic violence, not telling males and lesbians experiencing domestic violence to shut up while we focus on the bigger problem.
Ven
I do apologise.
lizzie
I’m busily ignoring bemused atm. It’s very restful.
AoE
You and Jimmy D are actually on the same page. See Jimmy D confirming my point about its the culture that is the problem
Thus he is agreeing with your point that men and lesbians that are involved with domestic violence need to speak up.
This is my point on generalisations and breaking down stereotypes. Once we do that we treat the problem at its source. The teaching of toxic masculinity.
Both of you are making the same point in different ways.
So you accuse me and others of erasing the experience of men and LGBT people who experience DV, while simultaneously erasing the experiences of heterosexual women who are the subjects of the vast majority of domestic violence, sexual harassment, and sexual assault that occurs in our society.
That’s quite an achievement!
briefly says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:40 pm
…”That A-o-E and bemused both disagree with and/or dismiss the points made tends to affirm the validity of the argument.
Denial is an instrument of misogyny.
We live in a patriarchal order. It patterns or codes for repression, including the repression of the truth. Patriarchy exists and is violent”…
Ah yes.
Disagree with you and I am sexist.
Disagree with you and I am an anti-semite.
Disagree with you and I am a raving Trotskyist.
You are guilty of all of the prejudices you so casually fling at others.
Zoomster@12:53pm
No worries
zoomster @ #934 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:56 pm
And you make sure you tell everyone, using it as a put down.
You really are a sly one at times.
JimmyD says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:51 pm
…”Absence of Empathy – I can’t help you if you don’t want to be helped”…
…
Grow up.
There is something seriously wrong with a society when such a large proportion of it are afraid that they may be at risk from a proportion of the rest of that society.
There is something wrong with a society where a large proportion of that society has to leap higher hurdles to become equal.
No one here has said that all men/boys are violent to women/girls. But what is undeniable is that the highest majority of those violent to women/girls are men/boys. And, what is becoming equally obvious is that more women/girls are becoming fearful of men/boys in general.
It is not up to women/girls to change the nature of these men/boys, it is up to the rest of us men/boys to change misonygy to make sure that all society can live free of fear.
We all have read the papers, listened to the radio, seen interviews on the television, read books, seen movies depicting families in fear of one or more of male members of society, fear of physical, sexual, financial or verbal violence and/or deprevation.
I would say to all the men on this site ‘Is this what you want for your wives, children, relatives or anybody elses, do you really want a society where women/girls are afraid of men and boys? If you do then let things ride, if you don’t then the only answer is to do something about it, it is up to you and me to demonstrate that we want things to change.
When something as tragic as Margaret River happens, men don’t look for excuses (he must have snapped, he must have had mental problems, it was drugs/alcohol, it wouldn’t have happened if he didn’t have rifle, etc).
It is time that all men scream out in anger at what this man has done and what other men have done. Scream out at what women and girls are suffering and have to put up with all the time, the prejudices, the misogyny, the violence, the indoctrination, the inequality. Scream out at what a small proportion of our society is doing to such a vital part of our society and stop it.
Women and girls can’t do it alone because it is not them that has to change it is us men.
@ Jimmy D – please, tell me how my statements such as “All domestic violence is bad. All of it must be condemned.” is proof that I am “erasing the experiences of heterosexual women”.
Bemused
The problem is; it is not a topic for statistics; behind every act of violence is a tragic story. Someone mentioned the lack of retribution for false evidence in the family court. We go into marriage with even less evidence, young, with hormones raging. In my view it’s a miracle any of them work out.
Haveachat
I agree with most of that. However its not just men that need to change. Woman need to as well.
They can stand up to men telling their sons they are sissies for crying and the like. Not of course those woman who are suffering domestic violence be that physical or psychological.
I am happy to say I think our society is changing for the better. Its why we have the #metoo movement.Woman are now standing up for themselves not being silent. Helped by a man telling their story. That is men and women working together to expose the toxic culture.
From small things big things grow.
zoomster
Everyone needs a break 🙂
guytaur says:
Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:57 pm
…”AoE
You and Jimmy D are actually on the same page. See Jimmy D confirming my point about its the culture that is the problem
Thus he is agreeing with your point that men and lesbians that are involved with domestic violence need to speak up”…
…
We actually are on the same page as you say, although you would not know it based on the childishness of several responses I have had from him.
However, I made no comment about men or lesbians and their involvement in domestic violence, I think you have confused me with someone else.
Absence of Empathy @ #937 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:58 pm
Is that a Unicorn I spy.
Oh Gosh!
AoE
Yes the comment about men and lesbians was made by someone else. Sorry for including that part in my post to you.
Dan Gulberry @ #830 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:11 am
You don’t need ID to check in at the domestic airport if you use the self serve units.
If you are flying Qantas you’ll be directed to self serve by the staff even if you try to line up at the couple of staffed check in counters.