The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.
By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.
Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.
Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.
Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.
The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.
@lizzie
We have anti money laundering laws, however they aren’t enforced very much. Also they don’t extent to laywers, real estate agents and accountants.
That is the reason why Chinese dirty money has been behind a significant number real estate purchases in Melbourne and Sydney. Labor needs to make stricter enforcement of these laws a part of the party platform, the current lack of enforcement is a disgrace.
Turnbull thrice in Murdoch’s Oz:
lizzie @ #497 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 6:40 pm
it’s because real estate agents aren’t regulated like banks and other Financial organisations with regard to reporting large and or suspicious transactions. There has been heaps of Money laundering in Australian Real Estate in recent years.
Remember all those stories about Chinese people turning up to auctions and paying cash?
I’m not a gunny, so I’m just asking dumb questions.
For what purpose would you need to have a gun immediately to hand on a 10 acre (200 metre square) hobby farm? And why 3 of them?
If the gun was legal, presumably it could not have been automatic. So how could he kill six people without having to reload and giving at least some of them time to make their escape?
Here we have an example of just one solid shotgun round can do. Even the five LEGAL rounds in less then 10 seconds will create a massacre. A small extension gets the nice bloke killer 11 rounds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNILUy7mMKE
adrian
The board and management have of course nothing to do with this as i am sure they will conclude. From over the road. What a shocker. True Murdich style.
Quentin Dempster
✔
@QuentinDempster
20h
ABC source tells me: “The Board is extremely sensitive on this issue of trust. For years the ABC, with the Reserve Bank and the High Court, has been among the most trusted institutions in Australia.” Apparently ABC Board is concerned that public perception of “trust” is eroding.
.
Eddy Jokovich
@EddyJokovich
Perhaps trust in the ABC could be restored if they stopped doing things like this: 3-minute segment on Shorten’s Budget reply speech, graphic says “Coalition says Labor’s budget pledge cannot be believed”. For the full three minutes, just in case you missed the message. #auspol pic.twitter.com/Gmz3jb3nKC
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdE9gPeUwAAdmKI?format=jpg
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DdE9gPeUwAAdmKI?format=jpg&name=900×900
8:39 PM – May 13, 2018
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Of course there are shotgun slugs and shotgun slugs.
If you think cowering in your home will protect you, think again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrhpAZoiqxE
That’s bloody outrageous.
guytaur @ #487 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 6:34 pm
Not really. See my earlier post on the subject.
Warning: You have to be able to do maths.
‘Tristo says:
Monday, May 14, 2018 at 6:41 pm
@Boerwar
Even if One Nation preference against Labor (which is likely), Labor might win like one third to 40% of their preferences anyway. Since (correct me if I am wrong) that One Nation voters apart from the Greens are the least likely of any political parties to follow how to vote cards.’
I understand that Longman was won by less than 1% of the 2PP. Even a small variation in PHON prefs would be capable of sinking Labor. Of course the Greens will assist PHON in this matter by (a) forcing Labor to spend time addressing the Greens grizzling and (b) pissing away around 20% of their preferences.
I wonder whether any of the Greens voters in Longman will be told that the Greens intend to close down most of the Australian mining industry, to get rid of our naval ships and planes, to set up a Volksbank to cover the $1.7 trillion home mortgage lending market and spending well over a couple of trillion to give every single adult aged between 18 and 104 a free wage every week? Do the Greens show any sadness that their efforts will help put in the most regressive tax regime in the world?
Nope. The Greens narcissists do not do empathy.
Between PHON, the Greens and the Reactionaries, I would be pleasantly surprised if Labor holds Longman.
But how do the money launderers get the $AUD in the first place? There must have been laws broken before then.
Interesting development.
https://twitter.com/newmatilda/status/995879571525287936
Newspoll: Win for labor…. trend from last poll: Stable
Fairfax-Ipsos: Win for Labor…. trend from last poll: Up for Labor…
Now, how can anyone possibly read this as anything along the line of: “the race is tightening”, “positive reaction to the budget”, “the Coalition is improving in the polls”… etc.?
Propaganda can only get commentators up to election day…. at the end of that day, the harsh reality will inevitably settle in….
P1
It helps to read the article before you comment.
lizzie @ #497 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 4:40 pm
Mr Mai would have used the Honour Bank to transfer the money.
I have previously made a specific suggestion for Mr McGovern’s consideration: That all applications for new or renewed gun licences be open for public comment.
I now add another: That ALL applicants who have EVER any convictions relating to drunkeness or drug abuse be refused a licence.
Greensborough Growler @ #512 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 5:09 pm
Interesting that it’s prosecutors seeking the ban.
Confessions @ #517 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:12 pm
Indeed and also that it’s a blanket ban on any reporting of the case if it is agreed by the Court!
GG
Should be goose, gander, IMO.
My general view is that anything that compromises a fair trial should be banned.
A significant amount of the evidence of the complainants in the committal hearings was suppressed.
OTOH the MSM reported many of the words of Richter which were finely judged to damage both prosecution witnesses and the prosecution case.
The RWNJs are now attacking via Stutchbury’s tabloid:
Headline in AFR:
“Alberici fluffs Economics 101. Again
Emma Alberici’s majestic self-importance is inversely proportionate to her aptitude. Such a pathos has to catch you up.”
Longman is the danger. It may be difficult for the ALP because (if I remember correctly) ON (9.42%) preferenced against Wyatt Roy at the 2016 election (ALP got 57% of ON preferences when ON was finally eliminated) giving a small win.
Also Lamb had the Donkey Vote.
This time ON will help the LNP by directing preferences in order to stick it to the ALP.
Who gets the Donkey vote may decide the seat. Of course many voters may not turn out to vote which can also affect the result if, say, LNP voters are not too interested (and vice versa with ALP voters).
grimace
Or the legendary “former Oil Minister of Nigeria” finally came though with the cash.
citizen
The major and consistent attacks by the Murdoch puppets on Alberici is right out of the Right Wing playbook.
If you don’t want to hear what someone is saying they go all out to destroy that person.
‘poroti says:
Monday, May 14, 2018 at 7:16 pm
grimace
Or the legendary “former Oil Minister of Nigeria” finally came though with the cash.’
LOL
@Boerwar
A few points.
1. The Greens polled poorly in Longman at the last election, only getting 4.39%. Bowman is kind of outer-suburban seat where the issues Labor has been campaigning would dominate. In the Batman by-election they decided the by-election, however they weren’t totally dominating.
2. My prediction of a 30-40% preference flow from One Nation to Labor at the Bowman by-election is a reasonable one and in line with One Nation preference flows in recent state elections.
3. Also Labor should get a primary vote boost through a number of factors, which include the following; firstly, the loss of Wyatt Roy’s personal vote and lastly, a combined personal and sympathy vote bonus for the current sitting Labor member.
4. There are likely be a huge number of candidates in this by-election, probably 10 or more. Those candidates are going to sap more Coalition than Labor voters. Especially those outfits such as the Australian Liberty Alliance, there; we need to ask where their preferences are going to.
5. The last opinion of Federal voting intentions in Queensland showed a 2% swing to Labor, with all these things above. I predict while the contest will be close, Labor will get over the line. There might be any swing to the Coalition at all and maybe even a small swing to Labor.
Anyway Tasmanian Liberals are dreaming if they believe they are going to win the Braddon by-election. Since the factors which allowed them to win big in Braddon at the state election in March aren’t going to apply at a federal by-election.
Tristo
I hope you are right.
Boerwar @ #519 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:14 pm
Our Judicial system is confrontational by definition. Richter was doing his job in the time honoured way.
GG
‘Our Judicial system is confrontational by definition. Richter was doing his job in the time honoured way.’
Yep. But he got to step outside the court and do his stuff and have it relayed by the MSM at the same time as the testimony of the complainants was being suppressed inside.
I think we are on the same page in agreeing that any suppression should apply to everyone.
Boerwar @ #528 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:24 pm
So, the prosecutor here is trying to stop legitimate commentary.
Greensborough Growler @ #527 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 4:21 pm
Which for mine is a major problem with it.
It shouldn’t be a battle, it should be a search for the truth.
@Boerwar
I believed Labor would comfortably win Batman, mainly because David Feeney was a dud as a local member. Plus the demographics of Batman are pretty similar to Wills, which at the last federal voted 54.88-45.12 to Labor vs Greens due to a candidate who was not a dud like Feeney was.
If the Greens maintain a high vote in Victoria, perhaps Batman and Wills will become Greens seats in a few years.
GG
Uh huh. And the Defence stopped legitimate evidence during the committal hearing. The Prosecution has smartened up, perhaps.
Barney in Go Dau @ #530 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:27 pm
What is Truth?
Boerwar @ #532 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:30 pm
Obviously, not as legitimate as you assert given it did not stand up to scrutiny.
Pell would have powerful sympathisers/supporters in very high positions withing the MSM. I’m sure there would be a temptation to ‘accidentally ‘ do something which threw a spanner in the works of the trial .
Greensborough Growler @ #477 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 6:15 pm
That is a despicable caption as it is saying the father of the children committed the murders.
He did not.
GG
We will never know.
poroti:
But wouldn’t his sympathisers/supporters by opinion writers? Henderson and Devine come to mind, along with Shanahan’s wife.
by = be
Boerwar
It’s McGowan. Typical Eastern States ignorance of what is going on west of 135degrees east longitude.
“He must be a fool. This is not the first time a good bloke, loving, fit and proper West Australian legal gun owner has massacred his nearest and dearest.”
So domestic violence using guns only happens in the West does it?
“McGovern (sic)should be promising an immediate inquiry……”
There will be one. It’s called a Coronial Inquiry and occurs after every death of this nature.
McGowan and the WA government are approaching this in exactly the way it should be
On the Costello Chaired 9 News tonight they trumpeted that Turnbull was the preferred pm by an increasing factor according to Newspoll
The Fairfax Poll was dismissed as “raising eyebrows” because of the result favouring Labor as it did
No doubt there is a very active campaign across MSM to promote Turnbull and his dysfunctional government
The Fairfax poll did not support this presentation hence the attempt to mock it as they did
Greensborough Growler @ #533 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 4:31 pm
ALL the evidence presented and assessed in a calm and rational way.
Our adversarial system tries to avoid this with both sides objecting to evidence that doesn’t do their cases service.
Confessions
A few years back there was an article about Santamaria and in particular what the author called “Santas little helpers”. THE stand out for me was how many were in media and how senior they were.
The ABC has lost my trust. From what I see & hear, I don’t see why it should not lose the trust of a large proportion of its audience as well.
I have to admit I had no idea who this McGovern person is.
Boerwar @ #537 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:34 pm
We do, because most of the charges were dropped. My assumption is that the Magistrate didn’t regard the evidence or the witnesses as being reliable on those matters.
But, I’m sure that won’t stop you indulging in one of your usual conspiracy fantasies.
perhaps the Judge will be related to one of the umpires that cost hawthorn the Grand final. You know it makes sense.
Defence has requested two trials. Has there been a determination on this?
“Why he did it, what he did, you can only ever surmise.”
Asked if he thought the community would ever know the reasons, McGowan replied: “Probably not.”
“As far as I’m aware, there was no evidence that he had any sort of mental health issues that could have resulted in the firearms being removed from him, so it’s not one of those situations where you could have predicted what might occur.”
McGowan visited Margaret River on Sunday and spent half an hour with Aaron Cockman, the father of the four children and other family members.
“He’s obviously a grieving father and he’s going through a difficult time,” the premier said. “It’s a shocking, unexpected, awful tragedy and lots of people will suffer for years to come out of this.”
Margaret River mass shooting: three guns at scene belonged to children’s grandfather
Read more
The premier also met the two police officers first at the scene just after 6am on Friday following an emergency call at 5.15am.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/14/margaret-river-shooting-murder-suicide-could-not-be-predicted-wa-premier-says
ItzaDream @ #547 Monday, May 14th, 2018 – 7:43 pm
I think yes!
Well, Ipsos has been mocked around here more than once when it’s been kinder to the government than other polls, so PB types can’t really complain when it flukes a bad’un and the Tories start sledging for a change, can they?