Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46

Good news for Malcolm Turnbull on personal ratings, but Labor keeps its nose in front in the post-budget Newspoll, and lands well clear in Ipsos.

The Australian reports Labor’s two-party lead in Newspoll is unchanged at 51-49, but Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a big hike on preferred prime minister, his lead out from 38-35 to 46-32. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 39%, Labor to 38%, while the Greens are steady on 9% and One Nation are down one to 6%. Malcolm Turnbull is up three on approval to 39% and down three on disapproval to 50%; Bill Shorten is down one on 33% and up one to 55%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1728.

By contrast, an Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers has Labor’s lead out from 52-48 a month ago to 54-46, which partly reflects the fact that Ipsos is sticking with a straight application of 2016 election preferences. A separate result based on respondent-allocated preferences has it at 53-47, out from 50-50 last time. The primary votes are Coalition 36% (steady), Labor 37% (up three), the Greens 11% (down one) and One Nation 5% (down three). Malcolm Turnbull is up four on approval to 51% and down four on disapproval to 39%, Bill Shorten is up one to 39% and down two to 51%, and Turnbull leads 52-32 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 52-31 last time.

Both polls also feature results on budget response, which produce the strongest results for impact on personal finances of any budget since the extravaganzas of 2007 and 2008. Newspoll found 29% saying it would make them better off and 27% worse off, which is the first net positive result since 2007, albeit that this was aided by an eight point spike in the “uncommitted” result. The respective numbers from Ipsos were 38%, the highest since 2006, and 25%. However, 57% of Ipsos respondents said they would prefer the money from the tax cuts instead go to pay off government debt, compared with 37% who favoured the cuts.

Newspoll also found 41% rating the budget good, up five on last year, and 26% bad, down one; but Labor did better than last year on the question of whether they could have done better, with 37% for yes (up four) and 44% for no (down three). Forty-eight per cent rated Malcolm Turnbull more capable of handling the economy compared with 31% for Bill Shorten; 38% rated Scott Morrison the better economic manager compared with 31% for Chris Bowen; and 51% said Labor should support the seven year tax-cut package, with 28% opposed.

Below are two displays putting the Newspoll results in the context of the similar polling that has been conducted after every budget of the past 30 years. The first of these plots the net personal impact result against the net economic impact, with this budget illustrated by the red dot. It shows the budget ranking fifth out of 31 budget on personal impact, with the top four having run in succession from 2004 to 2007. However, the result for economic impact is only slightly above average, at plus 15% compared with plus 10.9%. The red dot’s position below the trendline confirms that this was a budget whose benefits were seen as relatively favouring personal rather than broader economic impact.

The second chart records the net result for the “would the opposition have done better” question (Coalition governments in blue, Labor in red), on which the latest budget equals the horror 2014 budget as the best result ever recorded by Labor. The Coalition tends to do better on this question, and on budget response questions more generally, but even it only managed a net positive result after the other conspicuously poorly received budget within the Newspoll time frame, namely that brought down by John Dawkins after Labor’s unexpected 1993 election victory.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,362 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor; Ipsos: 54-46”

Comments Page 16 of 28
1 … 15 16 17 … 28

  3. Absence of Empathy @ #697 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:17 am

    bemused says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 12:00 am

    …”As for dogs and knives, it might be safer, but it is much more close and personal and I think requires a certain blood lust that shooting doesn’t”…

    …
    Ah, so you must also agree then, that it it is a much easier and more clinical thing to shoot a person than say, beat them to death with a hammer?

    Dealing with animals in that way as a matter of routine has a desensitising effect.
    Yes, shooting is easier for a normal person. For people who are not normal. or mentally ill, things are different.

  4. ‘I really don’t understand what the assessment of Shorten’s character is based on.’

    I don’t get that either.
    Can’t understand why the ALP lets it go unchallenged.

    They should be reminding punters of Turnbulls’ problem with judgement at every opportunity…..drill it in….Gretch, NBN, Banks, pronouncements about the HC…etc..

    or are they saving it up for the coming ‘who do you trust’ election…?

  8. don

    No, it isn’t, and I did not say it was.

    But it is interesting that we understand why women kill their children more clearly than we understand why men do.

    Dismissive attitudes like yours helps explain why.

  10. As a senior banker some 25 years ago, who prosecuted that the Bank was being mismanaged post deregulation including the reasons – giving me a reputation and enemies – I was confronted with “Whilst you have proceedings at the Family Court of Australia there is no position for you at the Bank”

    I made my choice

    And I ultimately saw my former employer at the County Court

    Except for some consultancy work when requested I have not worked since

    Prior to remarrying I was a full time parent and since my wife and I have been full time parents – now full time Grandparents!

    That is my relationship between work and life

    Given the reliance on asset performance to sustain our lives in the manner we are accustomed to, I have an intimate knowledge of the performance of those assets including of Fund Manager portfolios and performance dating over 25 years since I left the work force

    Success is always relative of course – because past performance is not an indicator of future performance so you look to build layers of contingency “fat” in case of need

    So Capital and Reserves are the measure along with what those Capital and Reserves are invested into, the performance and the future outlook – so my Banking days remain a factor in my life because I assess our financial well being as I assessed in my banking days

    That said, I return to the remittance of Franking Credits and the assessment criteria of those availing of such “refunds” for lifestyle

    This scheme is predicated on investing into ASX Listed Companies paying fully franked dividends – exclusively

    So banks – and Telstra

    The recent publicity given to our banks and to Telstra has had the impact it has had on Share prices and that publicity was always going to be the outcome using any assessment criteria

    So to return a cash rebate regardless of paying no tax those investors, sold into tThe strategy by Financial Planners, are losing Capital because of the pressure on Share prices

    Their Balance Sheets are impaired due to the strategy

    Capital and Reserves are diminishing

    That is the folly of such schemes in my view – and why you have diversified portfolios

    The object of the exercise is to grow your Capital and Reserves

    Then we have the issue of maintenance of dividend given changing market place conditions and where both our banks and Telstra are exposed to those changing market place conditions including, in regards the banks, asset sell offs being their Fund Management arms which is ironic given their impact on the dividend imputation credit strategy employed by some

    The Fund Manager arms are a fee for service business EXCEPT that the fee is charged as a percentage of your holding, not as a percentage of performance delivered

    So the banks are divesting of a money for old jam source of recurring revenue

    Why?

    My answer is that they were blinded by easy revenue and have mismanaged the asset on behalf of those invested into their Fund Manager arms with their Superannuation accruals

    And I once worked for a bank!

    So back to the start!!

  11. Bushfire Bill @ #698 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 12:39 am

    By far the main reason that you have hammers about the house is to hammer in nails. You don’t usually buy a hammer so you can bash someone’s head in with it. I’m sure this is a very rare reason for buying a hammer.

    On the other hand … By

    The main reason you have guns about the house is to shoot (and presumably kill) things.

    That is the difference between hammers and guns.

    There are very strict storage requirements for guns, they are not just lying around the house.
    Guns will be owned, and securely stored when not in use, for a variety of reasons, including sporting shooting (a number of Olympic sports), hunting (a legal pursuit), putting down injured stock, despatching predators such as foxes and other pest animals.

  12. BK @9:01am
    Wow. That is exactly what Border farce said in August 2015 in Melbourne, which will be implemented in airports across nation. That is police state in full flight.
    What ever little progressiveness was left in MT is extinguished with this act. I h… him.

  13. Speaking of Q+A last night. Yes Chris Bowen did well but it was actually the Australia Institute guy that impressed me. The fact that his points kept inviting Judith to scream and talk over him says it all.

  14. …oh, and btw, frednk’s basic assertion (that children are at more risk from their mother) is only correct if we’re talking about the first month of life.

  15. :sigh: Why won’t they understand that water supply is precious and should always be protected.

    A large foreign-owned mine planned for prime agricultural land in the NSW Hunter Valley could cause the Bylong River and local creeks to “dry up”, according to an assessment by the NSW Water Office obtained under freedom of information laws.

    Key points:
    •South Korean company plans series of mines in upper Hunter Valley
    •NSW Water Office advice says mines will impact Bylong River
    •Parts of the river and other local creeks could “run dry”
    •NSW Government overlooked advice and recommended mine proceed

    A series of stark warnings from government water experts, including that the mine would salinate the aquifer beyond limits of current policy for at least a century, appear to have either not been communicated to the Department of Planning and Environment, or ignored by it, because the project has been recommended to proceed.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/bylong-mine-in-upper-hunter-to-proceed-despite-threat-to-water/9748574

  16. BK @ #745 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:01 am

    Just tweeted by Steph Peatling.

    This is a pretty huge change. PM is on 3AW announcing plans for police to have power to walk up to anyone at an airport for whatever reason – or, in fact, no reason, – the police see fit and ask for ID. PM says “dangerous times” are the reason for the change.

    That family blowing themselves up in Indonesia will be sending a chill through the various echelons of our Security Services.

  17. BK @ #518 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:01 am

    Just tweeted by Steph Peatling.

    This is a pretty huge change. PM is on 3AW announcing plans for police to have power to walk up to anyone at an airport for whatever reason – or, in fact, no reason, – the police see fit and ask for ID. PM says “dangerous times” are the reason for the change.

    I think the PM has, as usual, got the situation arse apeak.

    His friends, colleagues and co conspirators are planning to leave the country to sink, subsequent to removing the plug.

    The police were to wave the aforementioned friends (Mr. Turnbull does have friends – the dude to whom he gave $5 for one) through any queue to the first class accommodation aboard Dreamliners or similar. The $billions will already have departed.

    The plan would then be for the police to demand identity etc from the ravening hoards (them with the previously mentioned, clubs, hammers, pitchforks) so as to detain, deny and prevent the hoi poloi (us) from getting at the departing ……

    Out of steam. Time for redeeming lawn mowing.

  18. Exactly one week after the budget was announced and the govt has given up talking about the economy and is back to border security.

  22. BK says:

    Just tweeted by Steph Peatling.

    This is a pretty huge change. PM is on 3AW announcing plans for police to have power to walk up to anyone at an airport for whatever reason – or, in fact, no reason, – the police see fit and ask for ID. PM says “dangerous times” are the reason for the change.

    After which other places will be added and before you know it Gruppenfuhrer Adolph Kipfler’s dream of his ‘security’ forces being able to walk up to people on the street and demand “Papers please” will become a reality.

  23. Further evidence why “transitioning” from coal to gas is not a good idea. Straight to renewables please. Anything else is fiddling while Rome burns.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/14/gas-fuels-australias-third-straight-year-of-rising-emissions

    It wasn’t due to gas fired electricity. The electricity sector recorded a fall in GHGE. Where the gas is being used is providing the energy for natural gas liquefication plants for export.

    So P1 and her baseload gas fantasy is irrelevant here.

  26. poroti

    After which other places will be added and before you know it Gruppenfuhrer Adolph Kipfler’s dream of his ‘security’ forces being able to walk up to people on the street and demand “Papers please” will become a reality.

    We have been slowly creeping towards this goal, like a coral in a warming sea. And how many ‘terror’ incidents can be used to justify this?

    If Pauline “it’s all about me” Hanson really wanted Australia to return to the one she remembers, she would stop supporting the LNP.

  27. Pseudo Cud Chewer @ #773 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:21 am

    Further evidence why “transitioning” from coal to gas is not a good idea. Straight to renewables please. Anything else is fiddling while Rome burns.
    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/14/gas-fuels-australias-third-straight-year-of-rising-emissions

    It wasn’t due to gas fired electricity. The electricity sector recorded a fall in GHGE. Where the gas is being used is providing the energy for natural gas liquefication plants for export.

    So P1 and her baseload gas fantasy is irrelevant here.

    Of course, the emissions would be far less if coal was still being used as the altenative.

  28. mundo says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 9:06 am
    ‘I really don’t understand what the assessment of Shorten’s character is based on.’

    I don’t get that either.
    Can’t understand why the ALP lets it go unchallenged.

    They should be reminding punters of Turnbulls’ problem with judgement at every opportunity…..drill it in….Gretch, NBN, Banks, pronouncements about the HC…etc..

    Labor will not “challenge” the sledging because to do so would “build” the story. Silence is a very useful reply.

    Labor will not try to make the contest into a mud-slinging spectacle. Voters hate it. They really hate it. The LNP do it all the time, and this is one of the reasons they are unpopular.

  29. briefly @ #778 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:32 am

    mundo says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 9:06 am
    ‘I really don’t understand what the assessment of Shorten’s character is based on.’

    I don’t get that either.
    Can’t understand why the ALP lets it go unchallenged.

    They should be reminding punters of Turnbulls’ problem with judgement at every opportunity…..drill it in….Gretch, NBN, Banks, pronouncements about the HC…etc..

    Labor will not “challenge” the sledging because to do so would “build” the story. Silence is a very useful reply.

    Labor will not try to make the contest into a mud-slinging spectacle. Voters hate it. They really hate it. The LNP do it all the time, and this is one of the reasons they are unpopular.

    The other thing is Labor has policies it wants to talk about, so why create a distraction.

    On the other hand the Liberals don’t really want to talk about theirs, so they create a distraction. 🙂

  30. Prosecutors Seek Complete Ban On Media Reporting Of Cardinal George Pell Trial

    Ordinarily, an injunction against media reporting of a trial prevents outlets from reporting the details of the trial. But they can report the existence of the injunction and explain to readers why they’re not reporting the matter.

    The order that the DPP is seeking in the Pell matter is so broad that it will operate as a super injunction. The suppression order would be ‘any part of’ the proceedings, meaning the trial could not be reported, nor could media report the fact they’re not allowed to report. If Wednesday’s application for a super injunction is successful, this story will have to be removed from publication.

    While ‘super injunctions’ have, traditionally, been a relatively uncommon mechanism in the courts, they’re becoming increasingly popular, particularly in Victoria.

    https://newmatilda.com/2018/05/14/prosecutors-seek-complete-ban-media-reporting-cardinal-george-pell-trial/…

  32. Frednk @7.14am

    “Katharine Murphy has done her best to put a positive Liberal spin on it all”

    This statement is outrageously wrong.

    Every paragraph in the article references post-budget polling statistics from reputable pollsters. In fact the article might well be described as a list of statistics. You have to look very hard to find any opinion from Murphy and any opinion that can be found in no way leans to Labor or the Coalition.

    Sadly it has become quite common on PB for various journos to be declared shills for the coalition on the basis of certain echo-chamber posters reading the headlines but not the articles.

  33. FrythePlanet and Hunt share some yuuuuuuuuuuuuuge achievements as ministers for the environment: half the Great Barrier Reef is dead; our CO2 emissions are climbing; the list of endangered species has zoomed upwards; the biodiversity of the Murray Darling Basin keeps going backwards; desertification is affecting more and more of Australia; and clearing is out of control.

    So let’s put them in charge of foreign affairs?

    Yeah. Nah.

  34. Malcolm Turnbull thinks this is acceptable:

    “BREAKING: The number of Palestinians killed today in Gaza has now increased to 58 – that includes children, women, the disabled, and a paramedic.

    A total of 2,771 wounded, including 12 journalists and 17 paramedics – with over 1,000 of them being shot.”

  36. I see that the Gubbies have been waiting for something like the Surabaya murders to engage in a fit of the FUDs.

    Sure enough, Turnbull and Bishop ponce around about how terrible it all is.

    And a quarter of billion dollars worth of reductions in personal freedoms gets rolled out as the answer to the actions by half a dozen fuckwits.

    Do they give a stuff that Indonesia is THE muslim majority nation to successfully control terrorism and that by carrying on like pork chops they are damaging our relations with Indonesia?

  37. psyclaw @ #782 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:41 am

    Frednk @7.14am

    “Katharine Murphy has done her best to put a positive Liberal spin on it all”

    This statement is outrageously wrong.

    Every paragraph in the article references post-budget polling statistics from reputable pollsters. In fact the article might well be described as a list of statistics. You have to look very hard to find any opinion from Murphy and any opinion that can be found in no way leans to Labor or the Coalition.

    Sadly it has become quite common on PB for various journos to be declared shills for the coalition on the basis of certain echo-chamber posters reading the headlines but not the articles.

    I made a similar comment earlier.

    The most surprising thing was that Murphy wrote the article.

    Maybe it’s just a case of the limited resources of the Guardian and everyone else was tied up.

  38. Why limit the Nobel Peace Prize to Trump? Why not a joint award and give one to Netanyahu as well? And why not add Dylan to those two? After all, he got his last Nobel for eff all.

  39. We all like to think that our fellow voters prefer policy over personality, substance over spin, and that we really, really hate all these personal attacks.

    This is, to put it kindly, wishful thinking.

    The personal attacks work – you just have to look at Trump in the US, and Australian politics for the last 50 years to see that it works.

  40. psyclaw @ #782 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:41 am

    Frednk @7.14am

    “Katharine Murphy has done her best to put a positive Liberal spin on it all”

    This statement is outrageously wrong.

    Every paragraph in the article references post-budget polling statistics from reputable pollsters. In fact the article might well be described as a list of statistics. You have to look very hard to find any opinion from Murphy and any opinion that can be found in no way leans to Labor or the Coalition.

    Sadly it has become quite common on PB for various journos to be declared shills for the coalition on the basis of certain echo-chamber posters reading the headlines but not the articles.

    You might be on to something there!

    Murphy ‘s article was pretty straight reporting of facts. She even canvassed the distribution of preferences issue that has caused Newspoll to skew to the Coalition. If last election preferences were still being used for Newspoll, then the Essential numbers and Newspoll would be pretty much the same.

    Until we have another election, Newspoll’s gut reaction to State elections can’t be tested. However, Kevin Bonham’s research seems to support previous election allocation of preferences as being more accurate. The other factor is that One nation’s polling seems on the wane at the minute. So, is relying on distribution of preferences from recent State Elections really a reliable indicator?

  43. Pretty much my view.

    Qld and WA are the states where PHON should be strongest … plus the WA libs had a preference deal and Qld was against an incumbent Government.

    If you split the difference, based purely on the primaries, you end up somewhere between Essential and Ipsos respondent-allocated.

  45. A new study, led by the University of Melbourne’s U-Vet Werribee Animal Hospital, found the consumption of raw chicken meat increases the risk of dogs developing a paralysing condition called acute polyradiculoneuritis (APN) by more than 70 times.
    …
    APN is the canine counterpart of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) in humans, a condition that also causes muscle weakness and may require ventilation if chest muscles are affected.

    Dr le Chevoir says the bacteria Campylobacter is now considered a triggering agent in up to 40 per cent of GBS patients. It may be present in undercooked chicken, unpasteurised milk products and contaminated water.
    …
    In humans, scientists think Campylobacter, which is most commonly found in commercial poultry products, contains molecules similar in structure to part of the nerve cell. This similarity confuses the immune system, which attacks the body’s own nerves, resulting in paralysis.

    https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/raw-chicken-linked-to-paralysis-in-dogs

  46. Greensborough Growler @ #790 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 6:49 am

    psyclaw @ #782 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:41 am

    Frednk @7.14am

    “Katharine Murphy has done her best to put a positive Liberal spin on it all”

    This statement is outrageously wrong.

    Every paragraph in the article references post-budget polling statistics from reputable pollsters. In fact the article might well be described as a list of statistics. You have to look very hard to find any opinion from Murphy and any opinion that can be found in no way leans to Labor or the Coalition.

    Sadly it has become quite common on PB for various journos to be declared shills for the coalition on the basis of certain echo-chamber posters reading the headlines but not the articles.

    You might be on to something there!

    Murphy ‘s article was pretty straight reporting of facts. She even canvassed the distribution of preferences issue that has caused Newspoll to skew to the Coalition. If last election preferences were still being used for Newspoll, then the Essential numbers and Newspoll would be pretty much the same.

    Until we have another election, Newspoll’s gut reaction to State elections can’t be tested. However, Kevin Bonham’s research seems to support previous election allocation of preferences as being more accurate. The other factor is that One nation’s polling seems on the wane at the minute. So, is relying on distribution of preferences from recent State Elections really a reliable indicator?

    I think you’re misrepresenting Kevin there.

    He certainly believes that the last election preferences are superior to respondent preferences but what Newspoll is doing is different and new, and as you and he say we won’t know how valid the approach is until we have an election. 🙂


  48. zoomster says:
    Tuesday, May 15, 2018 at 8:26 am
    … but statistically this is rare…

    And that pretty much sums up the whole debate; and probable why men get a little fed up with being tared with the same brush because statistically one small group is larger that the other.

  49. “BREAKING: The number of Palestinians killed today in Gaza has now increased to 58 – that includes children, women, the disabled, and a paramedic.

    A total of 2,771 wounded, including 12 journalists and 17 paramedics – with over 1,000 of them being shot.”
    ____
    And the casualty count for the Israelis is?

  50. a r @ #794 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:55 am

    Greensborough Growler @ #766 Tuesday, May 15th, 2018 – 9:15 am

    That family blowing themselves up in Indonesia will be sending a chill through the various echelons of our Security Services.

    What? When did Australia become Indonesia?

    TheIindonesian Bombings are just another manifestation of the terrorist mentality of many of the ISIS indoctrinated Muslims. The jump to inspiring a similar event in Australia is not that great a stretch imho.

    You might be sanguine about it. But, our security services won’t be until the threat has been assessed and nullified.

Comments Page 16 of 28
1 … 15 16 17 … 28

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *