ReachTEL’s swing to the Coalition hasn’t shifted BludgerTrack, which had already priced it in based on recent Newspoll results. The Coalition makes a fractional gain on two-party preferred, which translates into a gain of one on the seat projection, that being in New South Wales. Nothing new on the leadership trends this week (I don’t use the ReachTEL numbers for this, because they structure their response options for leadership rating questions differently to other pollsters). Full results from the link below:
Methodological note: As explained on the BludgerTrack methodology page, a pollster’s bias adjustments are based on their historic performance, where there are enough pre-election polls from the pollster to base it on; or, where it isn’t, by comparing their results this term with a trend measure of pollsters in the first category. I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.
Shame. But inevitable given this week’s polling. That said it doesn’t have to be a trend …
From previous thread (and updated)
UK Locals, 149 of 150 councils in (Tower Hamlets in London’s East End is still counting)
Lab 2,310 councillors (+59) / 73 councils (-1)
Con 1,330 councillors (-31) / 46 councils (-2)
The BBC have done a forecast of the National vote share and forecasted the House of Commons on those numbers:
Lab 283 (+21)
Con 280 (-38)
SNP 43 (+8)
LDem 22 (+10)
Others 22 (-1)
Note that the BBC do not just count up yesterdays votes for this, they analyse key wards in key seats and generate a Projected National Share as if all areas of the country had voted. This gives a consistent figure for comparison even when the actual areas voting are Labour-dominated like yesterday or Tory-dominated like when the non-metropolitan Tory districts and shires come up in the cycle
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
I am feeling physically sick as I assemble the Dawn Patrol with Trump in the background giving a bragging, fawning and inflammatory speech to the NRA. He’s such a danger!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/may/04/trump-nra-convention-dallas-gun-control
This one from Peter Hartcher is well worth a read. He concludes with “Instead of taking the opportunity of windfall gains to tend to national solvency, Turnbull and Morrison will instead insult the intelligence of Australians by giving us a paltry tax cut and a beer discount. Apparently we are to spend and drink our way to prosperity.”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/economic-reckoning-is-on-its-way-and-we-will-all-have-to-pay-20180504-p4zdg0.html
This article by Richard Dennis is one you should take the time to read ahead of this week’s budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-worry-you-re-probably-right-about-the-budget-20180504-p4zdes.html
David Crowe says “There is one big question Scott Morrison does not want to answer about the tax cuts he will reveal on Tuesday night. Will the government honour its rule of allowing any improvements in tax revenue to be “banked” on the budget bottom line?”
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-question-scott-morrison-will-not-answer-20180504-p4zdh8.html
Laura Tingle says they don’t make pre-election budgets like they used to.
https://outline.com/8BcV3U
Pontificating Paul Kelly writes that Australia is suffering a betrayal by the elites and this is the Turnbull government’s tax reform and economic policy on the eve of Scott Morrison’s third budget.
https://outline.com/xuAT6x
Peter Martin and Mark Kenny team up to preview the budget.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/scott-morrison-s-dilemma-avo-toast-and-early-surplus-mightn-t-cut-it-20180504-p4zdba.html
Paul Bongiorno begins with “Next Tuesday Treasurer Scott Morrison will unveil the government’s blueprint for survival. His political opponents are convinced one bold move would go a long way to achieving it. And it’s giving Bill Shorten nightmares.”
https://outline.com/rbsuRG
Sarah Danckert tells us that documents released from the banking royal commission show that AMP’s former chair Catherine Brenner did have a hand in changing an “independent” report into the wealth manager’s beleaguered financial planning arm.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/amp-announces-david-murray-as-new-chairman-20180504-p4zdfz.html
An angry Elizabeth Knight explains how AMP tried to frustrate the regulator’s investigations.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/murray-to-clean-out-amp-and-it-couldn-t-come-soon-enough-20180504-p4zdfk.html
Adele Ferguson writes about what David Murray has in front of him at AMP. She also derides the submission AMP made to the royal commission yesterday.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/david-murray-has-taken-a-job-nobody-wanted-at-amp-and-it-s-gargantuan-20180504-p4zdgt.html
Directors holding more than three board seats across Australia’s biggest companies are under pressure to sharply scale back their commitments, given the rising tide of regulation and increased workloads in the boardroom.
https://outline.com/Dcdjgb
Alan Kohler wonders if the CBA is an island of apathy.
https://outline.com/4xCf6g
Crispin Hull writes “The erosion of the rule of good law began with the 1980s deregulation and privatisation. There was a lot of merit in a lot of it – getting rid of stagnant publicly owned monopolies and unnecessary red tape. But it went too far, especially replacing independent regulation with self-regulation.” It’s all a bit frightening.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/flaws-of-self-regulation-trust-some-of-the-people-some-of-the-time-20180504-p4zdda.html
Karen Maley with a long article on when the rot set in with the banking and financial industry.
https://outline.com/XW4YjV
A furious Australian Securities and Investment Commission accused financial service giant AMP of frustrating and delaying the corporate regulator’s investigation into its fee-for-no-service scandal.
https://outline.com/8MYNmh
Why we should blame incentive pay for bad behaviour in financial services. Bad and sub-optimal behaviour so often emanates from this.
https://outline.com/MHWrMd
John Quiggin writes that the BCA says its opponents don’t have a realistic alternative to grow the economy. In reality, he says, a better plan is already on the table.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/04/the-business-council-thinks-the-left-has-no-plan-thats-a-bit-rich
Karen Middleton writes that Dutton got what he wanted when the prime minister decided to establish the Home Affairs Department last year, despite few of his cabinet colleagues and none of the security agencies actively supporting its creation. She describes how the cabinet is split.
https://outline.com/RceRFt
The government has announced a review of the federal public service that has sparked concerns it is preparing to double down on plans to outsource jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/04/review-sparks-fears-coalition-set-to-outsource-public-service-jobs
Rudy Giuliani is certainly causing a ruckus at the White House.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/i-was-going-to-get-this-over-with-inside-giuliani-s-explosive-stormy-revelation-20180505-p4zdii.html
As the facts around a payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels continue to evolve, comments made this week by US President Donald Trump’s new lawyer may have given investigators more leads, not less.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/2018/05/05/donald-trumps-new-lawyer-gave-investigators-new-leads-say-analysts/
Energy regulators have played down the level of conflict over the National Energy Guarantee and say the policy debate is slowing the sector’s transition to greater efficiency.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/energy-regulators-play-down-level-of-neg-conflict-20180504-p4zdgu.html
Andrew Lamming has written an op-ed in an attempt to explain his earlier remarks about teachers.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/andrew-laming-this-is-what-i-really-meant-about-teachers-pay-20180504-p4zdcy.html
Elizabeth Farrelly says that winner-takes-all private schools are making everybody nastier.
https://www.smh.com.au/education/winner-takes-all-how-private-schools-make-everyone-nastier-20180504-p4zddb.html
David Crowe on how in a packed community hall, Bill Shorten demonstrates his advantage over Malcolm Turnbull.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-a-packed-community-hall-bill-shorten-demonstrates-his-advantage-over-malcolm-turnbull-20180504-p4zddj.html
Full-body x-ray scanners will be installed at domestic airport screening points under a major overhaul of Australia’s airport security protocols to be announced next week, which could also include restricting liquids and other items in carry-on baggage.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/full-body-scans-for-domestic-airports-in-major-security-overhaul-20180504-p4zdg8.html
Franchisees say the $170 billion franchise sector is in “a very ,very sick state” and have accused major franchisors including Domino’s Pizza, Retail Food Group and Craveable Brands of unconscionable conduct and deceptive behaviour.
https://outline.com/KBsgm8
An interesting piece here from Jacqui Maley on the evolution of modern comedy.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/don-t-they-get-it-those-once-mocked-are-having-the-last-laugh-20180504-p4zdcp.html
Stephanie Dorwick has an excellent article on education here. Plenty to think about.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/testing-times-children-s-education-should-not-be-a-competition-20180504-p4zdds.html
Mike Seccombe writes that successive governments have maintained high levels of immigration to stoke the economy. The argument against this is growing, bringing together odd bedfellows.
https://outline.com/PY7H2e
Half of the 51,300 older Australians affected by an increase in the age pension age would move on to Newstart or the disability support pension in the first year alone, new figures suggest.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/04/pension-age-hike-will-force-thousands-of-elderly-australians-on-to-newstart
In this thoughtful contribution from Julia Baird she says that ee should stop automatically using the term backflip as a pejorative for public figures who change their minds. The onus is on them, though, to convince us it was for good reason.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/we-should-welcome-it-when-people-change-their-minds-20180504-p4zden.html
i360 has been specifically formulated to sync and capture data from the Liberal Party database, “Feedback” – operated by Parakeelia Pty Ltd – which provides the software into which their data can be entered. It is owned by the Liberal Party.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/taxpayer-funded-surveillance-the-liberal-party-database-and-i360-combine,11465
The New Zealand government has promised to get the country’s homeless population off the streets and into shelter in time for winter.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/04/jacinda-ardern-pledges-shelter-for-all-homeless-people-within-four-weeks
It’s Mehajer time as two of his sisters are being asked to cough up a combined $6.2 million to cover a debt owed by one of his failed companies.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/salim-mehajer-s-sisters-claim-signatures-forged-over-6-2-million-debt-20180504-p4zdd8.html
How the MCG got ahead of the recycling game.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/sustainability/how-the-mcg-got-ahead-of-the-recycling-game-20180503-p4zd5f.html
Lee Duffield looks at the one-sided culture battle being fought against latte-sipping, inner-city dwellers and suggests the perpetrators deserve a kick in the backside from farmers.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-war-on-cafe-latte,11464
The rise of the “incels”.
https://outline.com/Agvtyh
Cartoon Corner
What a cracker from David Rowe!
Matt Golding at the royal commission.
Zanetti DOES work for News Ltd.
Mark Knight with Dane Swan’s se take problem.
David Pope with the BCA taking to the streets.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
Lots more in here.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/best-of-fairfax-cartoons-may-5-2018-20180504-h0zo0w.html
‘Suicide mission’: White House ally offers brutal analysis of Trump’s legal position in Mueller probe
Even some of President Donald Trump’s allies believe his legal defense is shaky against the special counsel investigation.
The president’s legal team — now led by Rudy Giuliani — has shifted its goal from criminal defense to a political fight to hold off impeachment if Democrats retake Congress in the midterm elections, reported Politico.
Veteran defense attorney Emmet Flood will join Trump’s legal team – “The mystery isn’t why Ty Cobb is leaving, it’s why Emmet Flood is joining a suicide mission,” one lawyer close to the White House told Politico.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/suicide-mission-white-house-ally-offers-brutal-analysis-trumps-legal-position-mueller-probe/
Is Trump a broke ‘billionaire’?
Was Donald Trump starved for cash in fall 2016, when 62 million voters cast ballots for a candidate who told them repeatedly that he was “rich — really, really rich.”
The way that Trump “funneled” hush money to a porn actress just 11 days before the election sure makes it look that way. This would be consistent with four decades of Trump claiming vast wealth, but not being able to pay his bills as they come due.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/trump-broke-billionaire/
Ray (UK)
Based on the National Vore Share it looks like Labour would require the SNP + Lib Dems to form government
( or SNP + Plaid Cyrmu and the Green)
Trump says Rudy Giuliani botched the Stormy Daniels reveal: ‘He started a day ago — he’ll get his facts straight’
President Donald Trump on Friday hinted to reporters that new attorney Rudy Giuliani botched his reveal of the president’s reimbursement of attorney Michael Cohen for his hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
“Rudy is a great guy but he started a day ago,” Trump said, according to CNN reporter Elizabeth Landers. “He’ll get his facts straight.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/trump-says-rudy-giuliani-botched-stormy-daniels-reveal-started-day-ago-hell-get-facts-straight/
Ides
On those hypotheticals the SNP alone would be enough if you take into account the Sinn Fein abstainers
As Peter Snow used to say with these forecasts “just a bit of fun”
However it goes to show, to paraphrase a local Yorkshire MP on Twitter earlier “listening to the media today you’d never guess Labour would be the largest party in the Commons on these numbers”
What is Zanetti’s cartoon about?
Anyone who has campaigned for Labor will probably have used NationBuilder, sophisticated data collection and processing software which helps you target people who may change their vote.
Melanie McCartney’s article in IA (thanks for the link, BK) describes how the Liberals have embraced it, and a lot of dodgy data collection techniques, and used it to help win SA.
In case you are wondering why the polls are showing a swing back to the worst Gov’t in memory, take a look at this article, but have the antacids handy if you suffer anxiety.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/taxpayer-funded-surveillance-the-liberal-party-database-and-i360-combine,11465
David Crowe on Bill Shorten:
Could someone explain what Crowe means by “like a union organiser”? It sounds derogatory, but is the opposite “preaches to the crowd like Malcolm Turnbull”??
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/in-a-packed-community-hall-bill-shorten-demonstrates-his-advantage-over-malcolm-turnbull-20180504-p4zddj.html
Morning all and thanks BK for today’s reading. Outline has to be one of the best things on the internet of late.
And Rowe is brilliant as ever.
Today’s Real Time
frednk
Quinceland farmers are being denied the chance to chop down every tree in the state, .poor dears.
.
“The Queensland parliament has passed a suite of new land-clearing laws, a move welcomed by environmental groups as a step towards curbing the state’s soaring deforestation rates.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/04/queensland-passes-land-clearing-laws-after-gruelling-three-day-debate
Morning bludgers
Last night I went to see one of my favourite bands the killers.
Fantastic. But my aging ears didn’t cope too well.
Lol!
Meamwhile The coalition are going to offer tax cuts for the lower end. This is something I was hoping Labor would do.
poroti says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 8:14 am
frednk
Quinceland farmers are being denied the chance to chop down every tree in the state, .poor dears.
“The Queensland parliament has passed a suite of new land-clearing laws, a move welcomed by environmental groups as a step towards curbing the state’s soaring deforestation rates.
But what has the CFMEU got to do with it?
victoria
Labor could match the tax cuts, which will take away the coalition advantage. Coals may scream, but who cares?
Ah, so we’re back to one bold move can change it all around.
I’m sure it could. If it were made by a totally different government to this one.
Shorten hasn’t had to do much at all as yet, except watch the government make bold moves which are going to change everything around. It’d be interesting to see what happens if he has to exert himself.
Lizzie
It is time for labor to stand up for the common-wealth. What do you want world class education, roads, police, medical services etc and so on or an extra cup of coffee?
The Bullshit really has to stop and the question asked.
zoomster
Now that ScoMo is throwing gifts around, hoping to buy votes, I’m reminded that Tony Abbott reversed his promises after he won.
Lizzie
Labor could match them. But my expectation and hope is that Labor would be putting forward a comprehensive tax reform policy.
It needs to be something meaningful. Otherwise what would be the point.
Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
A few wise words from Albo last night:
Kevin Rudd was ahead 61-39 at one stage but certainly didn’t win the election THAT convincingly. Historically, Labor have been well ahead of the Coalition in the polls and still only squeaked over the line. So from where we are now in the polls it’s quite easy to see a Coalition win.
So don’t be complacent about the polls, get out there and win votes for Labor! 🙂
victoria
We can be certain that Labor has worked out sensible tax reform. My worry is that Coal will do a song and dance act to distract voters, backed by MSM. Is there anything more obvious than their sudden conversion to craft beers?
“Beer, now that should go down well with the punters.” 😆
Btw, Albo reminded us that the Craft Beer Tax Cut was another policy that the Coalition nicked from Labor. 🙂
frednk
Because, as every Murdoch employee will tell you, the CFEMU control the Labor party ,
C@t:
Bill Maher has a similar complacency warning for Democrats this year.
http://www.real-time-with-bill-maher-blog.com/index/2018/5/1/blue-waver
Bongiorno’s article is interesting. It’s almost as if he is taunting Morrison: “Oh Brer Scrott! Please don’t throw Brer Bill in the Tax-cuts-for-Banksters patch!”
Oh, so the bold move would be cancelling the tax cuts to business.
Let’s do the switcheroo. Labor comes into government, with a promise front and centre of its agenda. It clings to this in defiance of all criticism for years, bagging anyone who dares to question their necessity or efficacy. Then. one day, without warning, it drops the idea completely.
The msm would go apesh*t. Every Labor announcement after that would be greeted with “…you can’t be trusted to deliver it”. It would be the key focus of every media interview with every Minister (heavens above, the relatively short term back flip over the banking RC has made several Ministers look foolish…). Terms like ‘spineless’ ‘can’t be trusted’ ‘rudderless’ “lacking in conviction’ ‘without a clear narrative’ etc would be thrown around (a lot more than they are at present).
But apparently, if the Liberals do exactly the same thing, it’ll be a political masterstroke.
Lizzie
I think the ‘speaks like a union organiser’ line is that you can tell he has a union background and can successfully organise a crowd of people. I think the tone of the line is relatively even handed and benign.
Ray (UK)
I forgot about the SF abstention, thanks for the pickup. SNP and Labour is a much nicer fit than having to also deal with Lib Dems
…oh, and Shorten’s nightmares, which Bongiorno frames the whole article around, are apparently a figment of the writer’s imagination.
I can equally say (with a fair degree of confidence) that Shorten’s sleeping quite well at present.
Full body xray scanners? Radiologist stand behind a screen when they take your xray for a reason; In my younger days I used to fly a couple of times a week; if I was doing it now does this mean I would be sterile before I wanted children?
According to this every thing is good:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/06/130627151642.htm
Not so fast:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-1290527/Airport-body-scanners-deliver-radiation-dose-20-times-higher-thought.html
I wonder; are they setting themselves up for large compensation claims?
The levels the Potato and this Government will go to, to avoid accountability and their responsibilities.
Taiwan FFS!!!!
So, what are their choices;
stay in Taiwan, non-signature to the refugee convention, with no chance of finding a home there, (how long is their visa valid?)
go back to Nauru and the hopelessness that has caused the problem,
or return to Iran and the situation she fled which has been acknowledged as classifying her and her son as refugees.
Playing with peoples lives should never be part of Government policy!!!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/05/suicidal-refugee-child-should-not-be-sent-back-to-nauru-psychiatrist-says
poroti says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 8:43 am
frednk
Because, as every Murdoch employee will tell you, the CFEMU control the Labor party .
Ok. If you live in the Murdock bubble it makes sense.
The article by Paul Bongiorno (posted by BK) suggests that SloMo could pull the business tax cuts in the budget, causing a big problem for Labor who would lose a major issue on which to attack the government.
That’s possible, I suppose, but surely that is not the biggest issue on which to launch an attack. After all, this is something that would happen in the future rather than the more immediate issues of stagnant wages, soaring energy prices and other cost of living pressures, uncertain employment and so on.
Then there is Kelly of all people with this gem (also linked by BK):
Zoomster
I currently have high expectations as to what Shorten are co are going to offer by way of policy.
Of course I have no such expectation that the msm will give them a fair hearing going forward.
frednk @ #10 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 5:36 am
Keeping those Murdoch pay cheques coming in.
Citizen
It isn’t just Australia suffering this betrayal.
For anyone paying attention, the elites are well and truly hijacking democracy in every way.
As per one twitterhandle I follow, counterchekist,who retweeted this today. It sums up perfectly what is the current state of play.
Hence why the whole Trump Imbroglio is a history changing saga.
Counterchekist
Counterchekist
@counterchekist
·
Feb 14
Want to guess how much OC money was laundered into Israel by BiBi’s pals? See, #KremlinGate isn’t just American. It spans the globe. tRUmp’s election set in motion what will ultimately be a deep cleaning of economic & political systems. The party is just getting started… 🙂
The Associated Press
@AP
BREAKING: Israeli media reports say police recommending Netanyahu indictment on corruption charges, including bribery.
As expected Giuliani’s first foray into getting the Mueller investigation ended has turned out so well!
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/05/04/rudy-giuliani-tries-to-clean-up-his-hubris-inspired-mess/?utm_term=.aa3ba32ced57
You’d think a seasoned and experienced prosecutor wouldn’t expose his client to further potential legal scrutiny.
One would hope that the revelations at the RC would convince enough crossbench senators to oppose such legislation.
lizzie @ #39 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 6:09 am
No, it’s an attempt by the Government to give these experts the experience of being involved a fund that works for it’s customers and returns a benefit to them!!!! 🙂
zoomster @ #31 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 8:52 am
Agreed. That’s why I think that Bongiorno, who is the least Rupertarian of the current CPG, is taunting Scrott to do the one thing he cannot. The polling (oddly – post the Spiv RC) hasn’t diverged enough for the Spivs & Arseholes Party to realise that their ship is sinking.
lizzie says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 8:41 am
victoria
We can be certain that Labor has worked out sensible tax reform. My worry is that Coal will do a song and dance act to distract voters, backed by MSM. Is there anything more obvious than their sudden conversion to craft beers?
“Beer, now that should go down well with the punters.”
I can remember a headline in the Courier Mail from my childhood with regard to the budget when the government of the day needed more revenue:
Beer and Ciggies up!
don
Ah, those were the days, when the price of beer and cigarettes could determine who won the election. Of course, that was before we got sophisticated and bought wine in cardboard boxes. 😉
I am a little concerned that the ACTU has thrown in its lot with the BCA over immigration. Not because their position is necessarily wrong, but because it’s not a sensible thing to do politically IMO with an election quite possibly only a few months away.
Immigration is a hot button issue at the moment with many people expressing concern about the increasing over crowding of our major cities and I would be very concerned if Labor just follows the ACTU lead on the matter. Hopefully Bill Shorten will be a lot more measured in his comments about it.
Fess
Guiliani has succeeded in muddying the waters.
Question remains. Was it deliberate, or is he too losing his cotton pickin mind?
Ray (UK) @ #2 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 6:17 am
Ah, so Labour is positioned to win the next UK election.
Clearly Corbyn is a failure and must go! 😉
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/2018/05/05/tyranny-and-free-speech/15254424006191
Darn @ #46 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 6:34 am
McManus made it perfectly clear in interviews the other week that the ACTU has a big issue with the number of short term working visas.
At the time she didn’t commit to any comment on permanent immigration numbers which she now seems to have.
For me her position is pretty spot on and what Government should be working towards.
Problem is it requires a plan and strategies to combat the surrounding issues like education and training.
Some beyond this current mob and something I would think Labor would be working towards. 🙂