BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The one new federal poll for this week confirms rather than alters the recent shift back to the Coalition, as recorded by the BludgerTrack aggregate.

ReachTEL’s swing to the Coalition hasn’t shifted BludgerTrack, which had already priced it in based on recent Newspoll results. The Coalition makes a fractional gain on two-party preferred, which translates into a gain of one on the seat projection, that being in New South Wales. Nothing new on the leadership trends this week (I don’t use the ReachTEL numbers for this, because they structure their response options for leadership rating questions differently to other pollsters). Full results from the link below:

Methodological note: As explained on the BludgerTrack methodology page, a pollster’s bias adjustments are based on their historic performance, where there are enough pre-election polls from the pollster to base it on; or, where it isn’t, by comparing their results this term with a trend measure of pollsters in the first category. I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. I don’t think a half-senate election will be held, unless Malcolm Turnbull wants a repeat of the Western Australian Senate special election of 2014 nation wide. Plus a half-senate election would be essentially treated as a nationwide by-election.

  2. Boerwar:

    I’m not watching Qanda but my recollection of previous times she’s been on is that she isn’t a strong performer in that format.

  3. Confessions: the Senate is only dissolved when there’s a double dissolution. Otherwise it has a continuous existence.

    Boerwar: The closest to a revolt on the part of a State came in 1974, when the Queensland Governor on Joh’s advice issued a writ in the middle of the night for a five vacancy half-Senate election, rather than the six vacancy election which Gough was trying to engineer by appointing Vince Gair as Ambassador to Ireland. But it clearly confirmed that the State Governors act on the advice of their Premiers, and of course a half-Senate election can be held in the 12 months preceding the 1 July date on which new senators take their seats.

  5. The Liberals really can pick ’em!

    A branch of the NSW Liberal Party is set to debate the merits of Sharia-style corporal punishment and a radical proposal to make citizens responsible for sentencing criminals rather than judges.

    The notoriously hard-right Carlingford branch, under its colourful president George Popowski, will discuss a push to “straighten out the law and order system” by handing sentencing powers to a panel of 20 members of the public, with no more than 30 per cent from the legal fraternity.

    Mr Popowski, who authored the motion, also urged the reintroduction of corporal punishment, arguing it was the “fairest” form of retribution because “we all feel the same pain”.

    He proposed 10 lashes for theft of a T-shirt, 1000 lashes for stealing a car (2000 if the vehicle is damaged), 5000 lashes for punching a police officer and 20,000 lashes for murder.

    The floggings should be “delivered at 10 lashes per hour – every hour from 9am to 5pm, with one hour for lunch”, Mr Popowski wrote. The sentence would be doubled for second-time offenders.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/20-000-lashes-for-murder-liberal-party-branch-to-debate-proposal-for-corporal-punishment-20180507-p4zdup.html

  6. p1
    We have established that you no longer think that we will be extinct within decades. Unless you have changed your mind again. That is settled.
    I can understand why people like myself and yourself, who have been passionate supporters of conserving biodiversity for all of our lives, are finding it difficult to shift paradigms.
    I had the first real inklings of this when I studied the history of the economic role of botanic gardens.
    The ones which failed to hook into genetic research are essentially stranded assets. They used to be serious contributors to, for example, agricultural productivity. Adelaide Botanic Gardens was heavily involved in its early days in assessing wheat types for growing in Australian conditions. The one serious exception to this is where botanic gardens contribute to gene banks.
    The real R&D action for food production is happening at the level of genes – and decreasingly so in the context of a whole plant.

  7. citizen
    I am all for introducing citizen input to punishing white collar criminals. Happy for lashings of lashings for the bastards. They are destroying our nation.

  11. The floggings should be “delivered at 10 lashes per hour – every hour from 9am to 5pm, with one hour for lunch”, Mr Popowski wrote. The sentence would be doubled for second-time offenders.

    Somebody’s been watching / reading too much 50 Shades of Grey.

  12. Boerwar @ #1056 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 10:04 pm

    p1
    We have established that you no longer think that we will be extinct within decades. Unless you have changed your mind again. That is settled.

    What we have established is that you neither read nor think.

    I can understand why people like myself and yourself, who have been passionate supporters of conserving biodiversity for all of our lives, are finding it difficult to shift paradigms.

    Umm. I am not shifting paradigms. I am, and have always been, in favour of biodiversity. I really have no idea what you are in favour of.

    I had the first real inklings of this when I studied the history of the economic role of botanic gardens.
    The ones which failed to hook into genetic research are essentially stranded assets. They used to be serious contributors to, for example, agricultural productivity. Adelaide Botanic Gardens was heavily involved in its early days in assessing wheat types for growing in Australian conditions. The one serious exception to this is where botanic gardens contribute to gene banks.
    The real R&D action for food production is happening at the level of genes – and decreasingly so in the context of a whole plant.

    One Species to rule them all
    One Species to find them
    One Species to bring them all
    and in the darkness bind them

  14. @citizen

    That proposal is mind blowing, however not totally unexpected. Given the increasing predominance of the “Christian Right” in the Liberal Party.

  15. Confessions and rossmcg:

    You may well be right that it won’t happen. But I actually think that the Victorian government could quite legitimately argue that a half-Senate election pulled on basically unnecessarily shouldn’t be permitted to interfere with a State election the date of which has been known for years. And it wouldn’t really have any major cost implications. There’s also a case to be made that it’s better not to have too long a gap between when people are elected and when they take their seats: a person could be sitting in the Senate nearly seven years after he or she was first chosen.

  16. Potatohead still pushing ahead with this:

    South Africans ‘not too far off’
    8:01PMRACHEL BAXENDALE
    White South African farmers are not ‘too far off’ receiving immigration status, according to the Home Affairs Minister. (Oz headline)

  17. Confessions @ #1031 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:47 pm

    When thinking about half-Senate elections, it’s worth bearing in mind that the writs have to be issued by State governors (Constitution, section 12) on the advice of the local Premiers

    I always thought the Senate is dissolved and writs are issued within a specified period of time or whatever.

    ‘fess,

    The Senate doesn’t get dissolved except in the case of a double D.

    The current Senate spots up for election do not expire until 1/72019 where they will be replaced by those Senators elected in elections prior to this date.

    So the date of the election itself is not important only in that it is after August and before May next year so the new Senators are ready to take their places. 🙂

  18. Breaking news in SMH:

    Bob Hawke reportedly admitted to Sydney hospital
    The 88-year-old former prime minister has been admitted to Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney, according to reports.

  19. Michael:

    But I actually think that the Victorian government could quite legitimately argue that a half-Senate election pulled on basically unnecessarily shouldn’t be permitted to interfere with a State election the date of which has been known for years.

    But if the Vic election is in late November and the half Senate election is called for August, or even September, then it isn’t really interfering with the state election?

  20. Barney:

    We were talking about PvO’s article in which he argues that if delaying the general election is the name of the game, then the only way that can happen is by holding a half Senate election sometime this year.

    Speculation abounds that the government may be gearing up to go to the polls later this year. However, those close to the action in Team Turnbull insist April or May next year is the more likely timing.

    Both scenarios should be dismissed in favour of an election in the second half of next year, which would mean holding a half-Senate election later this year. That’s the only way the vote for the House of Representatives can be pushed back as late as November 2, 2019.

    https://www.outline.com/EDubbN

  22. Confessions:

    I get the impression that the Victorian election campaign is already underway. 🙂 Strictly speaking you can have a State and federal polling day one week apart, it happened in Tasmania back in the 1990s. It’s more a matter of how the politics overlaps. And I can’t off the top of my head see what legitimate argument there would be for having a half-Senate election early rather than late in the permitted 12 month period. Nor is it obvious that there’s any need in principle for all the States to vote for their senators on the same day in that period.

  23. AE, that is almost exactly what Barry said.

    I was reporting on his conclusion, not his reasons for reaching it. You seem to have confused the two for some reason.

  24. Incidentally, those of us who have been around for a long time will no doubt remember the amusement which was engendered when Billy McMahon held off setting the date of the 1972 for as long as possible. It’s not necessarily good politics to project the impression that you want hold on to your job like a limpet.

  25. Confessions @ #1070 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    Barney:

    We were talking about PvO’s article in which he argues that if delaying the general election is the name of the game, then the only way that can happen is by holding a half Senate election sometime this year.

    Speculation abounds that the government may be gearing up to go to the polls later this year. However, those close to the action in Team Turnbull insist April or May next year is the more likely timing.

    Both scenarios should be dismissed in favour of an election in the second half of next year, which would mean holding a half-Senate election later this year. That’s the only way the vote for the House of Representatives can be pushed back as late as November 2, 2019.

    https://www.outline.com/EDubbN

    I know,

    but a half Senate election could be held as late as May next year meaning the House of Reps election could be as late as the second half of next year.

  28. Michael:

    Federal election timing is always an advantage to the govt of the day. And PvO being a Liberal, I don’t blame him for scoping every angle possible that would allow Turnbull to hold off holding a general election seeing as the coalition are staring at defeat presently.

  29. @ zoomster

    I don’t think Malcolm Turnbull is of that persuasion, I believe he would go to an election if the Coalition polls well enough for victory to be a possibility.

    I don’t believe a separate half-senate election can be possible these days. Voters aren’t going to be please to have a half-senate followed in a few months to a year by a house of representatives election.

  30. The difficulty with PvO’s argument is that even if there were to be a separate half-Senate election, there would be no compelling practical reason to hold it this year rather than in the first half of next year: if a normal House and half-Senate election would be possible in early 2019 – which nobody denies – then a half-Senate election would also be possible. The problem with that would be a political one, of justifying two nationwide votes only a few months apart. But that would make it clear that going to a separate half-Senate poll this year would be just a political trick, and a highly risky one. The last two separate half-Senate elections, in 1967 and 1970, were pretty much disastrous for the incumbent PMs (Holt and Gorton), and the 2016 double dissolution wasn’t exactly a raging success either. A bad result in an unnecessary half-Senate poll later this year would be the kiss of death for Mr Turnbull.

  31. Tristo

    And if that never happens, he’ll cling on as long as possible. The man is all about what looks good on his CV.

  32. The difficulty with PvO’s argument is that even if there were to be a separate half-Senate election, there would be no compelling practical reason to hold it this year rather than in the first half of next year

    Well he does offer a couple, one of which is a half Senate election this year might force unity within the partyroom as coalition MPs instead turn their attention to getting their own Senate mob re-elected rather than sniping and whiteanting. I’ve already said this is a naive expectation based on what we’ve seen from Abbott.

    The other is that the longer the general election is delayed gives the coalition longer to unpick Shorten Labor’s game and try out their electoral strategies against him.

  33. “I believe he would go to an election if the Coalition polls well enough for victory to be a possibility.”

    That would be now, given the narrow gap in the polls. Several billion strategically thrown at swinging voters, a biased media (and a neutered ABC), lots of money and lots of lies unchallenged and the gap is eminently closeable. Malcolm will go as soon as he can see an advantage.

    EDIT: Malcolm has form for being ‘innovative’ in election timing, if in nothing else. He won’t hesitate to break the alignment of Senate and House elections if he can see an advantage in doing so.

  34. Steve

    What would be really “innovative” would be for Malcolm to perceive that he has had a budget boost and go before the redistributions in SA and Victoria are finalised, which our host William suggested would be some time in July.

    I am sticking with October.

  35. Confessions:

    Forcing unity within the coalition party room would be a political rather than practical argument for a half-Senate election this year, and now that the idea is out there that such could be (at least in part) the motivation for having such an election, it would be easy to portray it as a desperate move by an insecure PM to head off a party room challenge. And that’s another reason why a Labor state might be tempted to throw a spanner in the works: it would show that Mr Turnbull couldn’t even get his clever tricks working properly. (Much the same thing happened in the 1974 case I mentioned earlier: that was the moment when some people started to think that Gough was capable at times of being too clever for his own good.)

  36. Rossmcg. @ #1084 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 8:17 pm

    Steve

    What would be really “innovative” would be for Malcolm to perceive that he has had a budget boost and go before the redistributions in SA and Victoria are finalised, which our host William suggested would be some time in July.

    I am sticking with October.

    The numbers are finalised so that would mean a mini redistribution which would be more favourable for Labor as 2 Liberal seats in SA would merge and the Victorian result would be just as favourable as the initial proposition with the same in ACT.

  38. Barney

    I understand it can be done and how but I daresay it would be a nightmare for the electoral commission.

  39. Rossmcg. @ #1088 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 8:39 pm

    Barney

    I understand it can be done and how but I daresay it would be a nightmare for the electoral commission.

    From what I’ve read it’s pretty simple.

    In SA’s case the two smallest adjacent electorates are combined into one and in Vic’s case the two largest adjacent electorates are split into 3 equal size ones, same for ACT.

  40. @zoomster

    Oh indeed Turnbull would do that, I could definitely see a half senate election before may and a house of Representatives election in November.

  42. Boerwar @ #986 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:41 pm

    DG
    How did you go with finding Di Natale’s costings for the UBI? Facts, remember. Just the facts.

    A whole lot less than the “trillions” figure you pulled out of your arse.

    You’re the one who brought up the subject of a UBI (I’ve never mentioned it once – ever), so you tell us, how much will it cost? And no vague “pulled out of your arse” numbers either. Exact figures.

    Then show the figures for the benefits to the economy of ensuring people have enough to feed and clothe themselves, put a roof over their heads and pay all their bills. Once again, no “pulled out of your arse figures”, exact numbers.

    There, that’s the first time I’ve ever discussed a UBI on this blog.

  43. Boerwar @ #1014 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 7:28 pm

    DG kept snarking about facts, facts, facts in post after post after post.

    But he has yet to come up with the real nature and funding of Di Natale’s Volksbank or Di Natale’s costings for Di Natale’s UBI.

    Boerwar once again moving the goal posts.

    I never once brought up the subject of a UBI. You did that to deflect away from your bullshit rants about di Natalie “nationalising the banks” which you have persisted in now for weeks at a time. Then when it was pointed out that he never said any such thing, you throw in the red herring of a UBI to detract away from the fact that your “nationalising the banks” has proven to be twaddle.

    As Bemused pointed out, Australia Post is applying for a banking license. That will be the “people’s bank”. It will be “funded” in exactly the same way the Commonwealth Bank (the original people’s bank) was.

    Simples.

  44. More on the “up to $10.50 a week”

    Turns out that that amount won’t actually show up on people’s pay slips, it’ll be applied when they do their tax returns next July.

    The ABC understands that while the measure will start on July 1, the tax break will come in the form of a bigger end-of-year tax rebate.

    The tax relief will be delivered by an increase to the Low Income Tax Offset (LITO) which doesn’t show up in weekly or fortnightly pay packets.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-07/10-dollar-tax-cut-in-federal-budget/9735972

    So yeah, there’ll be a yoooooooge budget bounce in the polls for the government. Not.

  45. That increases the chances of a separate House election (although a simultaneous election is still highly probable).

    If it was a retrospective increase, for the current year and thus payable this July, it would be a good election timing indicator.

  46. How desperate to cling on to power would a half Senate election followed by a HOR election pushed out to November next year look!?!

    I don’t think the Liberal Party could afford two campaigns anyway. Something PvO didn’t consider. Plus the BCA roadshow would all be for nought.

    Conclusion: we will have an ordinary election. Probably next year if Labor has to go to by-elections due to Dual Citizenship matters. Though if I were Labor I’d start pushing the questionable Liberals to show their hands.

  47. As far as the ‘Tax Cut’ for Low Income Earners actually being an increase to the LITO, well, guess who is getting the real Tax Cut? The rich bastards. As the Liberals want.

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