BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The one new federal poll for this week confirms rather than alters the recent shift back to the Coalition, as recorded by the BludgerTrack aggregate.

ReachTEL’s swing to the Coalition hasn’t shifted BludgerTrack, which had already priced it in based on recent Newspoll results. The Coalition makes a fractional gain on two-party preferred, which translates into a gain of one on the seat projection, that being in New South Wales. Nothing new on the leadership trends this week (I don’t use the ReachTEL numbers for this, because they structure their response options for leadership rating questions differently to other pollsters). Full results from the link below:

Methodological note: As explained on the BludgerTrack methodology page, a pollster’s bias adjustments are based on their historic performance, where there are enough pre-election polls from the pollster to base it on; or, where it isn’t, by comparing their results this term with a trend measure of pollsters in the first category. I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  1. Boerwar @ #997 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 8:59 pm

    In the context of the discussion with P1, industrial quantities of tomato meat will be GMO’d and will grow in soil-free factories using solar power generated fresh water with growing vats’ temperatures controlled (either cooled or heated as required) by ultra cheap solar energy. There will be no tomato plants in these factories. Instead tomato meat cells will be replicated. Literally billons of dollars around the world are being invested in the research for cell growth of all major food and fibre commodities. The main issues are not whether or not it can be done in the technology sense. The main issues are around cost competitive scaling up, supplying the massive amounts of inorganic inputs required, the massive capital investments required, distribution, luddites, and what to do with all the stranded farm assets around the globe. Massively powerful farm lobbies around the world will do their best to stop this from happening.

    As I have pointed out before, you can’t feed the world on hydroponic tomatoes. They have almost no nutritional value. But hey – at least some of us will die rich!

    It is not really ‘if’, anymore. It is ‘when’.

    You are correct if you are talking about species extinction. It is now a matter of ‘when’, not ‘if’. And the ‘when’ is likely to be measured in decades.

  2. C
    Turnbull has previously shown a bit of a liking for novel(ish) approaches such as being pushed by PvO.

  3. Good evening all,

    Re the figure of 20,000 extra homr care packages.

    ATM approx 105000 older Australians are waiting for a home care package. The number will keep on increasing year on year so 20,000 is just a drop in the ocean given that it will probably be implemented over a number of years.

    The one big problem for the government in all the pre budget hype is the over egging by their MSM lap dogs. By trying to promote anything and everything the government has so far leaked as ” Santa Morrison ” and ” tax cuts for all , glory days are on the way ” all the MSM has achieved is to raise expectations that will not be met.

    In the absence of any yet to be revealed knockout announcements tomorrow night instead of “under promising and over delivering “Morrison, Turnbull and co will commit the biggest political no no and ” over promise and under deliver. ”

    Do they have anything still up their sleeve is the million dollar question.

    Cheers.

  5. Boerwar:

    On another point, I think PvO is being somewhat naive imagining a half Senate election would automatically impose discipline among the Abbottobads and in the partyroom. Abbott was still sniping during the Bennelong by-election campaign from memory.

  6. p1

    Of course humans will become extinct. As will all life on earth. It is only a matter of time… perhaps as late as when the Andromeda and Milky Way Galaxies collide, perhaps finally when the Sun turns into a Red Dwarf.

    I am not proposing to feed the world on hydroponic tomatoes as you assert because I regard hydroponic tomatoes, requiring tomato plants, to be extremely inefficient forms of food production. All the energy and nutrients that go into the plant are a complete waste. That waste is being eliminated. Growing a whole cow so that you can only eat a small part of it will become passe. Meat is already being grown in dishes. The related technologies include growing organs for transplants. The whole field is vibrant and developing at the lightning speed.

    There are at least eight major groups around the world which are each investing huge amounts of funds in the development of food production factories. These are all based around cell replication and will not involve plants per se or animals per se. None involve the slightest skerrick of biodiversity beyond the genetic material in the growing cells.

  7. C
    There are quite a few unknown unknowns! Dutton and Bishop sparring in public has become a weekly occurrence.

  10. briefly

    Racism is institutionalised in the UK.

    Real news would be if racism was not institutionalised in the UK.

  11. When thinking about half-Senate elections, it’s worth bearing in mind that the writs have to be issued by State governors (Constitution, section 12) on the advice of the local Premiers, and it would be open to the Labor states to tell Mr Turnbull to take a running jump with a separate half-Senate election this year. Victoria, in particular, could argue that such an election shouldn’t be allowed to overlap with the State election due in November. And of course, the Territory senators wouldn’t be up for election. I doubt Mr Turnbull would want to be fighting three elections, one this year in three states, another in the first half of next year in the other three states, and a House election in the second half of next year.

  13. Boerwar @ #1006 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:16 pm

    Of course humans will become extinct. As will all life on earth. It is only a matter of time… perhaps as late as when the Andromeda and Milky Way Galaxies collide, perhaps finally when the Sun turns into a Red Dwarf.

    Unless we change our ways, the remaining time for many of us is measurable in decades, not millennia.

    I am not proposing to feed the world on hydroponic tomatoes as you assert because I regard hydroponic tomatoes, requiring tomato plants, to be extremely inefficient forms of food production. All the energy and nutrients that go into the plant are a complete waste. That waste is being eliminated. Growing a whole cow so that you can only eat a small part of it will become passe. Meat is already being grown in dishes. The related technologies include growing organs for transplants. The whole field is vibrant and developing at the lightning speed.

    You do make me laugh sometimes – “vibrant and developing at the lightning speed”! You have about 20 years left before millions more will begin dying from climate-related catastrophes. But hey – why should we care? We will be among the lucky survivors – we may even be lucky enough to live out our natural lifespans! Tough luck for our kids, though 🙁

    There are at least eight major groups around the world which are each investing huge amounts of funds in the development of food production factories. These are all based around cell replication and will not involve plants per se or animals per se. None involve the slightest skerrick of biodiversity beyond the genetic material in the growing cells.

    You are very keen on pointing out the flaws in the Green’s “magic pudding” economics. However, you are completely blind to the fact that you are relying on “magic pudding” technology. Good luck with that!

  14. DG kept snarking about facts, facts, facts in post after post after post.

    But he has yet to come up with the real nature and funding of Di Natale’s Volksbank or Di Natale’s costings for Di Natale’s UBI.

  18. Of course Paul Barry on Media Watch decided that Andrew Probyn had gone too far in declaring Tony Abbott the most destructive politician of his generation.

  20. p1

    ‘Unless we change our ways, the remaining time for many of us is measurable in decades, not millennia.’

    Uh huh. Shifting ground in the face of the facts, which is good to see.

    In case you did not notice it, you have moved from extinction (everyone) in decades, to ‘many of us’ in decades.

    Other than that, I invite you to have a look at the facts, at the research, at the developments in a field that is giving rise, inter alia, to growing clean meat, you ignore it all and you simply repeat your mantra. There is no practical reason why we can’t be growing tens of millions of tons of meat sans cow within a decade. It is a matter of priorities.

    Greens’ trillion dollar wish lists and real world technical developments that have already occurred are not an analogy. But you knew that.

    Once again, you seek to divert from the core issue here which is not Greens’ loopy economics (nice try at a red herring) but scientific and technological developments that have already happened.

  21. sonar
    Thanks. Is there some sort of tradition that the states will fall in with the wishes of the prime minister of the day?
    I hadn’t known about this wrinkle.

  22. “Of course Paul Barry on Media Watch decided that Andrew Probyn had gone too far in declaring Tony Abbott the most destructive politician of his generation.”

    No he didn’t actually. Barry focused on the ABC Charter for news reportage. If Probyn made the comment on ‘insiders’ or even on 7:30 as an opinion he’d have been fine. Probyn delivered a judgemental opinion – albeit one richly deserved – as fact.

  24. Boerwar @ #1021 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:39 pm

    sonar
    Thanks. Is there some sort of tradition that the states will fall in with the wishes of the prime minister of the day?
    I hadn’t known about this wrinkle.

    Well it hasn’t exactly been a secret and IIRC became an issue when Whitlam was contemplating a half Senate election.

  25. Q&A
    Is $40 a day for Newstart enough? Tim Wilson reckons… well, what do you expect Wilson would say? He was on around $300,000 (I believe) in his previous gubbie sinecure (he was antsy about the human rights stuff before the $300K job but not so antsy when he got that job) and is on $200,000 plus now.

  26. Andrew_Earlwood @ #1022 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:40 pm

    “Of course Paul Barry on Media Watch decided that Andrew Probyn had gone too far in declaring Tony Abbott the most destructive politician of his generation.”

    No he didn’t actually. Barry focused on the ABC Charter for news reportage. If Probyn made the comment on ‘insiders’ or even on 7:30 as an opinion he’d have been fine. Probyn delivered a judgemental opinion – albeit one richly deserved – as fact.

    I always appreciate your reality based comments.

  27. Boerwar @ #1020 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:38 pm

    p1

    ‘Unless we change our ways, the remaining time for many of us is measurable in decades, not millennia.’

    Uh huh. Shifting ground in the face of the facts, which is good to see.

    In case you did not notice it, you have moved from extinction (everyone) in decades, to ‘many of us’ in decades.

    I get it that you neither read nor understand my posts. You don’t have to belabour the fact.

    Other than that, I invite you to have a look at the facts, at the research, at the developments in a field that is giving rise, inter alia, to growing clean meat, you ignore it all and you simply repeat your mantra. There is no practical reason why we can’t be growing tens of millions of tons of meat sans cow within a decade. It is a matter of priorities.

    Greens’ trillion dollar wish lists and real world technical developments that have already occurred are not an analogy. But you knew that.

    Once again, you seek to divert from the core issue here which is not Greens’ loopy economics (nice try at a red herring) but scientific and technological developments that have already happened.

    Yes, yes. We get it. Global warming is actually good for the planet, and we will all be saved by reduced biodiversity.

    One species is all anyone could need, right?

  28. Q&A is already fun. “Jobs create more jobs, which create more jobs. And thus unemployment is solved!”

    Though seriously, why are the Labor people always so much less articulate than the LNP people? I mean, the LNP guy spews nonsense, but he at least spews it quickly and smoothly.

  29. IaD
    ‘Cooked tomatoes are high in lycopene, which probably has a beneficial relationship with prostate cancer. As does 21 or more orgasms a month. (male). ‘

    So now we have to eat 21 cooked tomatoes per month to stave of postrate cancer?

    Truss tomatoes could be multipurposed to fix hernias while they lycopene your postrate gland… oh, wait, that will just set P1 off about how we will all be dead in a couple of decades.

    While I was unaware of the 21 orgasms a month figure, one of the things that can change a PSA reading (make it go up) is an orgasm within the previous two to three days.

  30. Qanda has a left leaning panel tonight.

    Founder of GetUp!, Linda Burney, a lady whos name escapes me vs Tim Wilson and a former conservative UK politician (Boris Johnson’s father??)

  31. When thinking about half-Senate elections, it’s worth bearing in mind that the writs have to be issued by State governors (Constitution, section 12) on the advice of the local Premiers

    I always thought the Senate is dissolved and writs are issued within a specified period of time or whatever.

  32. 21 orgasms a month ! that would be the collected total for everyone here for a year

    at least they would be real … the front bench are not happy if it not fantasy

  33. Paul Barry also discussed Mirabella’s defamation case and had some interesting comments such as about the folly of a Newspaper admitting their error and then defending the case.
    I understood the paper had offered Sophie $100,000 but didn’t hear that mentioned.

    I understand if she gets awarded less than that, she also gets to pick up the costs of both sides from the point at which the offer was made. I am hoping she gets an award of substantially less than $100,000. Can any lawyers comment?

  37. Ides of March not.logged in @ #1030 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:46 pm

    Qanda has a left leaning panel tonight.

    Founder of GetUp!, Linda Burney, a lady whos name escapes me vs Tim Wilson and a former conservative UK politician (Boris Johnson’s father??)

    Indeed it is Boris Johnson’s father. I was about to mention that.

  38. Bloody hell. The Labor person just said “million” instead of “billion” in reference to the business tax cuts. Twice. Or maybe even thrice.

  39. P1

    ‘Unless we change our ways, the remaining time for many of us is measurable in decades, not millennia.’

    Uh huh. Shifting ground in the face of the facts, which is good to see.

    In case you did not notice it, you have moved from extinction (everyone) in decades, to ‘many of us’ in decades.

    I get it that you neither read nor understand my posts. You don’t have to belabour the fact.’

    Non sequitur. You changed your views from post to post. I pointed this out. Your comment on this is that I don’t read or understand your posts. To repeat: you backtracked from human extinction within decades to something quite different. But now you are having difficulty admitting you were wrong.

  40. Though seriously, why are the Labor people always so less articulate than the LNP people? I mean, the LNP guy spews nonsense, but he at least spews it quickly and smoothly.

    Coalition MPs when appearing in public are invariably on a spectrum ranging from loose with the truth to outright lies and fabrication. I guess it’s easy to be articulate when you don’t feel any pressure at all to be truthful or factual with what you are saying, and aren’t constantly checking yourself.

    Look at Trump for goodness sake’s. He slips so easily from diametrically opposing views to diametrically opposing views, sometimes in the same sentence.

  41. Confessions @ #1031 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:47 pm

    When thinking about half-Senate elections, it’s worth bearing in mind that the writs have to be issued by State governors (Constitution, section 12) on the advice of the local Premiers

    I always thought the Senate is dissolved and writs are issued within a specified period of time or whatever.

    Well that’s a really clear understanding…of what?

  42. Boerwar @ #1039 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    Non sequitur. You changed your views from post to post. I pointed this out. Your comment on this is that I don’t read or understand your posts. To repeat: you backtracked from human extinction within decades to something quite different. But now you are having difficulty admitting you were wrong.

    I suggest you try actually reading my posts before embarrassing yourself further.

  43. Briefly
    Any single EU government, including the Irish Government, can veto any deal between the EU and GB. Given that the GB Government relies on the NI rowdies to survive and that the NI rowdies have diametrically opposite views to the Irish Government, it is extremely difficult to see how this Gordian Knot will be cut.

  44. p1
    You always make that suggestion when you want to avoid discussing the issue at hand.
    You moved from extinction within decades to many dead within decades.
    So, what do you think about the fantastic developments in the development of growing organs and its relevance for growing food in factories?

  47. p1
    So, what is your assessment of the fantastic pace and depth of developments of artificial organ growing and its implications for growing food in factories?

  49. Boerwar says:
    Monday, May 7, 2018 at 9:53 pm

    Briefly
    Any single EU government, including the Irish Government, can veto any deal between the EU and GB. Given that the GB Government relies on the NI rowdies to survive and that the NI rowdies have diametrically opposite views to the Irish Government, it is extremely difficult to see how this Gordian Knot will be cut.

    The knot is for a noose – one with which the Brits are about to hang both themselves and a large number of EU citizens.

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