BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor

The one new federal poll for this week confirms rather than alters the recent shift back to the Coalition, as recorded by the BludgerTrack aggregate.

ReachTEL’s swing to the Coalition hasn’t shifted BludgerTrack, which had already priced it in based on recent Newspoll results. The Coalition makes a fractional gain on two-party preferred, which translates into a gain of one on the seat projection, that being in New South Wales. Nothing new on the leadership trends this week (I don’t use the ReachTEL numbers for this, because they structure their response options for leadership rating questions differently to other pollsters). Full results from the link below:

Methodological note: As explained on the BludgerTrack methodology page, a pollster’s bias adjustments are based on their historic performance, where there are enough pre-election polls from the pollster to base it on; or, where it isn’t, by comparing their results this term with a trend measure of pollsters in the first category. I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,099 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.1-47.9 to Labor”

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  2. P
    One of the beauties of the water market is that it has already pushed water into the best returns. It has also resulted in much wiser water use.
    But you have a point.
    The best place to reduce water storage and distribution evaporation and losses through seepage is as close to the runoff source as possible. No brainer.
    From that point of view all South Australian irrigation should be banned forwith.

  3. Boerwar @ #948 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 7:43 pm

    GG
    I was ruminanting, in a non-ruminant sort of way, about exactly that point. In the gym this morning most of the six screens featured lengthy periods of gubbies in high viz talking Santa.
    I keep going back to my basic formulation: while wages are stagnant or falling, this Government is gone. A bit of tax lolly ($4 a week) will not save them from this.
    If you add falling high prices, more so.
    ATM the share market is providing them with their only real world comfort. And I am not sure about how many Australians would change their votes because they are making a quid on the ASX.

    Yes, knowing whether you are bulshitting or just being a cow is one of those constant existential challenges you face.

    Personally, I can’t see the numbers changing that much near term despite all the hype. We’ve seen this before as exampled by the Media press around the 2014 Budget. People want a pay rise now. Turnbull and Co rabbiting on about tax Cuts for Corporates does not resonate with people trying to make ends meet.

    Turnbull has done nothing for the battler. He’s the least worst lib option. But, he’s still toast!

  4. GG
    Now you have put me into a bullish mood.
    There is only one killer political surprise tomorrow: he walks away from the $65 billion in corporate tax cuts.

  8. Zoidlord says:

    they bring out Costello again.

    To tell us about his genius of selling off our gold reserve at the bottom of the market or, back when a $ billion was ‘real money’, losing billions on Forex speculation ?

  10. Costello said wtte of ‘the current generation will spend their lives paying off the money spent on their behalf.” Funny, you’d think the user pays guys would be OK with that.

  11. KayJay – Stephen Fry has an interesting new book out on all the old Greek gods, saw it on the shelves at Abbeys last Saturday.

  13. bemused:

    Australia Post, which is still Govt owned, is looking at getting a banking licence.

    No doubt the actual department is government owned, but I thought that many of the individual post offices were now franchises, which is why they are full of merchandise?

    If that is the case, Australia Post is neither fish nor fowl.

  14. Tricot says:
    Monday, May 7, 2018 at 6:32 pm
    So, eat the chickens to save the chickens…only joking!

    It is not a joke, it is reality.

    I seem to remember that New Scientist was proposing that the best way to keep alive the various arcane breeds of cattle and sheep in the British Isles was for them to become trendy additions to the menus of restaurants and cafes and family homes.

    Only if they were needed for consumption would farmers be willing to keep them reproducing.

  15. don @ #963 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 8:07 pm

    bemused:

    Australia Post, which is still Govt owned, is looking at getting a banking licence.

    No doubt the actual department is government owned, but I thought that many of the individual post offices were now franchises, which is why they are full of merchandise?

    If that is the case, Australia Post is neither fish nor fowl.

    Australia Post is the trading name of the Australian Postal Corporation, an Australian government-owned corporation that provides postal services both locally and internationally, as well as operating retail outlets. Wikipedia

    I think there is a mix of Australia Post outlets plus privately owned agencies or franchises.

  16. The Murray Darling Basin Plan is the the 21st century version of the “tragedy of the commons”.

    The tragedy of the commons is a term used in social science to describe a situation in a shared-resource system where individual users acting independently according to their own self-interest behave contrary to the common good of all users by depleting or spoiling that resource through their collective action.

  17. I’m hearing that the tax cut for people earning up to 87,000pa will be ten dollars a week. How do we feel about that?

  18. Boerwar says:
    Monday, May 7, 2018 at 6:43 pm
    We have canine teeth and grinder molars for a perfectly good reason: we are omnivores. If we only eat meat, we get sick. If we only eat vegies, we get sick. If we eat some of both we stay healthy.

    Not so.

    The Inuit (formerly called Eskimos) of the Arctic regions used to eat an exclusively meat and skin and fat based diet, and were healthy.

    They got vitamin C from eating raw meat and raw internal organs of animals.

  20. Greensborough Growler

    That is the max. All ‘down hill’ from there. Amazingly their new low income offset limit cuts out about $10,000 above the median wage !

  21. Darn

    I’m feeling positive. If I save up in roughly 2,500 years I’ll have enough to buy a shitter of a terrace in inner Sydney.

  23. Darn says:

    I’m hearing that the tax cut for people earning up to 87,000pa will be ten dollars a week.

    Nope. That is the max, it is on a sliding scale , so anyone earning median or average will get SFA.

  25. Boerwar @ #944 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 7:40 pm

    Whilever you link production to unpredictable high biodiv systems which are in turn locked into the weather, you will have disasters, shortages and high prices.

    Yes, a disaster for farmers trying to impose a fragile and unsustainable monoculture 🙁

    Hmm – which do we want? Profit for one species? Or survival for many? … A difficult question!

  26. I am still waiting to hear how much I am going to get out of this Fudget.

    My benchmark test is the Greens’ Fudget in which everything I could possibly want or need for the whole of my life is going to be free.

  27. Boerwar says:
    Monday, May 7, 2018 at 8:29 pm
    don
    Inuit diet included quite a range of vegetable foods including roots, berries and seaweed.

    Not in the interior of Greenland it didn’t.

    If they had access to the sea, kelp was included, but vegetables were a very unimportant part of many Inuit peoples’ diets.

  28. P1

    There is nothing fragile about monoculture. We get to eat good quality cheap abundant food.

    It is far more robust than sprinkling a few seeds among the weeds and crossing your fingers. You starve.

  30. Rossmcg. says:

    $10 a week for low paid workers?

    What about pensioners? I tip they won’t be happy.

    Has Scrott got something for you or what ? All the snake oil you can eat.

    Pensioners to get big budget boost

    The Coalition is expected to announce up to 20,000 new home care packages to keep older Australians living in their own home longer while increasing incentives for older people to work and start their own businesses.

    https://outline.com/gkBedU

  32. don
    I can imagine Inuit visiting the interior of Greenland from time to time, but not to live there permanently. It is permanently ice covered to a depth of many kilometres. I suppose you might pick up a lost polar bear but what else might be there? I guess my question is whether they spent part of their time on the littoral which does have veg in summer.

  37. Frankly, if the Government cannot scramble a 50-50 somewhere after this con job… then they best give up now.

    Given that polling impacts on Governments from Budgets tend to be neutral or negative over positive … it’ll be interesting to see what changes there are.

  41. Greensborough Growler @ #981 Monday, May 7th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    Conroy nails Rudd as a groveller to his Chinese Masters!

    https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/993432988217049088

    It was Crikey who first exposed hypocrite Rudd (last week or week before) in their daily email. He is basically saying one thing on his twitter account and totally the opposite on his Weibo account. When he was exposed he wrote a reply to Crikey whingeing about unfair reporting etc, when the evidence was there for all to see.

  42. p1
    There will be no tomatoes because tomato meat will no longer be grown on tomato plants. There will, of course, be people.

  43. Boerwar says:
    Monday, May 7, 2018 at 8:42 pm
    p1
    In fifty years time there will be no tomatoes.

    OK, I give up.

    How do you work that out?

    Back yard gardeners have been growing them for hundreds of years. We grow tomatoes, and they are delicious. You put them in the soil and they grow, given water and minimal attention. I’ve had good harvests of self sown tomatoes which had zero care and water.

    What would stop me or my descendants from growing tomatoes?

  47. don

    I exclude backyarders and hobbyists. Having a vegie plot will be, in the global warming climatic conditions that will now almost certainly apply (P1 is quite correct on this aspect), be a very rich person’s hobby indeed.

    In the context of the discussion with P1, industrial quantities of tomato meat will be GMO’d and will grow in soil-free factories using solar power generated fresh water with growing vats’ temperatures controlled (either cooled or heated as required) by ultra cheap solar energy. There will be no tomato plants in these factories. Instead tomato meat cells will be replicated. Literally billons of dollars around the world are being invested in the research for cell growth of all major food and fibre commodities. The main issues are not whether or not it can be done in the technology sense. The main issues are around cost competitive scaling up, supplying the massive amounts of inorganic inputs required, the massive capital investments required, distribution, luddites, and what to do with all the stranded farm assets around the globe. Massively powerful farm lobbies around the world will do their best to stop this from happening.

    It is not really ‘if’, anymore. It is ‘when’.

  49. PvO reckons the govt should go for a half Senate election later this year and push out the general election to November 2019. He makes a compelling case, esp the point about clearing out the unrepresentative Senate swill on the crossbench.

    Further, the present Senate is heavily configured in favour of crossbench representation courtesy of the lower quota the 2016 double-dissolution election required. Twenty of the 76 senators are in neither of the major parties (Labor or Coalition) and, because most crossbenchers won with low primary votes, most of them will face re-election in the first half-Senate contest.

    Combined with the new Senate voting reforms that favour the majors, a separate half-Senate election would likely clean out the crossbench. A campaign could be configured around the need to do so, and the changeover in July next year thus could give the government a matter of months to pass laws it now cannot, with a smaller crossbench cohort to negotiate with.

    https://www.outline.com/EDubbN

  50. 7.30 – it took about 3 minutes, and before, of course a Peter Costello interview, to realise that Laura Tingle has been hired to present a higher level of propaganda with added gravitas.

    Anybody who thinks that Tingle is anything other than an LNP shill has been duped.

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