ReachTEL’s swing to the Coalition hasn’t shifted BludgerTrack, which had already priced it in based on recent Newspoll results. The Coalition makes a fractional gain on two-party preferred, which translates into a gain of one on the seat projection, that being in New South Wales. Nothing new on the leadership trends this week (I don’t use the ReachTEL numbers for this, because they structure their response options for leadership rating questions differently to other pollsters). Full results from the link below:
Methodological note: As explained on the BludgerTrack methodology page, a pollster’s bias adjustments are based on their historic performance, where there are enough pre-election polls from the pollster to base it on; or, where it isn’t, by comparing their results this term with a trend measure of pollsters in the first category. I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.
Vic:
I’ m inclined to think he genuinely set out to get ahead of the media but served only to make a mess of it.
This gave me a good chuckle
Ale Retweeted
Sez Me
Sez Me
@HoffmanHopes
·
19h
Replying to @RealMuckmaker
An ER nurse told me they’ve stopped asking patients who the president is — as one of the questions they ask to judge whether the patient is disoriented — because too many people simply refused to say his name. Or got too agitated at being asked
Fess
It does look that way. Although, I still strongly believe Guiliani is acting in his own best interests and not that of Trump.
It is too late for them to pull that policy. The cat is already well and truly out of the bag on that one. Labor will simply argue that you can’t trust the Liberals after they have so passionately promoted the policy as the solution to all our economic woes – more jobs, growth and higher wages etc. It won’t be hard to dig up plenty of corroborating TV footage to mount some very effective attack ads.
Well they do have to find somewhere for the disgraced banksters can go.
Meanwhile my local leader paper continues to report anything Andrews Govt does with a negative slant.
So freakin annoying.
A level crossing was removed on my line as well as a new tunnel and duplication of tracks and replaced station where level crossing removed.
Line shut down for time specified. But a few extra days was needed to sort out signalling.
Well you can guess what reporting focussed on
Sheesh!
Darn @ #46 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 9:34 am
Darn
I agree
It has to be one of the most ideologically driven but politically stupid thing the ACTU has done. Especially in Qld. No better way than to drive those one nation voters away.
This joke brings to mind any number of claimed ‘achievements’ by the Coalition.
Shush. Don’t tell Boerwar or Briefly. It could completely ruin their whole weekend.
Not helpful, and you have to question this judge’s motivation. Surely the legal fraternity would want the investigation to play out until the end?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/manafort-to-appear-in-virginia-court-in-bid-to-have-fraud-charges-dismissed/2018/05/03/c3b0acb0-4ca2-11e8-b725-92c89fe3ca4c_story.html?utm_term=.fb9bb1adfaf1
Ah for the good old days.
The oft mentioned in these pages “BCA”
would then become ❓
Confessions
The key bit is ..
Yesterday Corbyn’s fanbois were claiming that Corbyn had no impact on the local elections.
Now they are crowing.
The dance of the seven C0rbyn veils continues.
“I have moved ReachTEL from the first category to the second, because it had lately been getting “corrected” for a pro-Coalition bias that its recent results have consistently failed to exhibit.”
Pro-Coalition bias can manifest itself in two ways: a) The Coalition being consistently favoured over the ALP; or b) the differential between the Coalition and the ALP 2PP being consistently smaller (when the ALP is ahead) than that of the other pollsters.
You’ve got to admit to doing a fair dance yourself Boerwar.
If you missed it this is an important read. Shades of supporting Trump here.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/commentisfree/2018/may/04/news-corp-taxes-david-speers-with-pro-business-roadshow?CMP=share_btn_tw
Boerwar says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 10:16 am
Yesterday Corbyn’s fanbois were claiming that Corbyn had no impact of the local elections.
Now they are crowing.
The dance of the seven C0rbyn veils continues.
I think they are pointing out how stupid your comments were. If you care about politics might pay to look at why Corbyn is successful instead of trying to create an alternative reality.
Boerwar @ #64 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 7:16 am
And you were claiming he was having a negative impact!
Just saying, you were all wrong. 🙂
AMP appoints former CBA boss David Murray as new chairman.
Colour me purple, me hearties.
Mr. Murray does not look well. I trust he has the best of medical and family support. (Seriously).
Barney
I stand by my comments. I think Corbyn is a poor campaigner. I think its the policies that are winning.
People get it when a sledgehammer is hitting their ability to live life which is what neo liberalism is.
Edit: To put it in a pop culture context. Malcolm Turnbull is King John and Morrison is the Sherrif of Nottingham with Dutton the Sherrif’s henchman.
poroti:
The judge is not involved in the investigation and likely has no clue as to what information prosecutors have and on whom outside of what he’s read in the media.
Confessions
It is not about what information they have it is about whether he had the authority to investigate.
Yes poroti, and the judge can’t possibly know what information the investigation has that would take it to Manafort’s Ukraine and other dealings. The terms of reference are pretty broad after all, so I think it’s rather premature for someone not involved with the Special Counsel to be offering opinions about where the investigation is going.
Barney
I should point out May is the UK’s King John and Trump is the US version.
All have in common the neo liberal dream of establishing the corptocracy and thus entrenched inequality of incomes.
Doing the opposite of China. Driving people to poverty to benefit themselves.
Briefly last night: ‘Labour headed into oblivion, Tories win’
Boerwar last night : ‘results are unequivocally good for May and bad for Corbyn’
All results in and Prof. Curtice says Corbyn in Downing Street based on these elections
Boerwar now: ‘Corbyn fanbois are crowing’
You really are a pathetic specimen, you give an ‘analysis’ that is hopelessly wrong but instead of addressing it all you can do is slather and squirm and throw in some dishonest goalpost-moving
You are about as partial and honest on Corbyn as Sean Hannity was on Obama
Clueless, utterly clueless
When Boerwar finds a dance that he really likes he dances longer and harder than anyone else here. Just think Greens, Sanders, Corbyn, Bulldogs beating the Swans in 2016 and so on. Magnificent performances all of them. Such commitment and staying power.
This Sunday on #Insiders @barriecassidy interviews Shadow Treasurer @Bowenchris #auspol
Re Bongiorno’s suggestion that could axe business tax cuts in the budget to undermine Labor.
The BCA is putting a lot of effort and $$$ into pushing the business tax cuts. What would be their reaction if SloMo double crossed them and axed the tax? Would they still campaign against Labor or would they direct their venom at the LNP?
https://independentaustralia.net/_lib/slir/w700/
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/what-happens-when-company-tax-is-slashed-exhibit-a-australia,11466#.WuzkpvjzgJA.twitter
An email to Manafort’s lawyers contains a copy of a letter from Rosenstein to Mueller confirming the scope of his investigation. In relation to Manafort, this letter contains the following clauses: investigate ….
“a crime or crimes by colluding with Russian government officials with respect to the Russian government’s efforts to interfere with the 2016 election for president of the United States, in violation of United States law.”
“crime or crimes arising out of payments (Manafort) received from the Ukrainian government before and during the tenure of President Viktor Yanukovych”
Certainly broad enough to cover the crimes Manafort has been charged with.
See https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/mueller-authorized-investigate-manafort-campaign-collusion-russians-documents-show-n862326
Ray (UK) says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 10:45 am
…”You really are a pathetic specimen”…
…
Never a truer word spoken.
He would much prefer a weak and fairly conservative Labor government which does little to alter the status quo for several terms and then hands back power to the Tories, whereby they continue with their long term goal of smashing the foundations of our great social democracy.
He has so much in common with the Green’s he constantly rails against, it is nauseating.
Darn says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 10:02 am
a r says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 9:39 am
Ray (UK) @ #2 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 6:17 am
The BBC have done a forecast of the National vote share and forecasted the House of Commons on those numbers:
Lab 283 (+21)
Con 280 (-38)
SNP 43 (+8)
LDem 22 (+10)
Others 22 (-1)
Ah, so Labour is positioned to win the next UK election.
Shush. Don’t tell Boerwar or Briefly. It could completely ruin their whole weekend.
Yeah. If all goes well, Labour would win a minority of seats in a general election. Practically the entire political cosmos in the UK is campaigning for Labour – the Tories certainly are – and the best they could do was to win seats in their London strongholds.
Polling-wise, Labour have lost the lead they held through the second half of last year. These elections, where the turnout was 1/3, confirm the polls.
Last word on the UK Locals numbers (I promise)
The BBC seem to have turned off their running tally without the last result, so anybody keeping a running total needs to add the Tower Hamlets figures which was Labour’s best council of the night
Tower Hamlets : Lab 41 (+19), Con 2 (-3), Other 2 (-16)
Labour end the night on 2,351 (+78) and Cons on 1,332 (-34)
Democratic politics is about drawing people together, about enlarging the ranks. In the UK, three things are happening that diminish the capacity to swell the Labour-positive ranks.
First, the party itself is shrinking its compass by deliberately seeking to exile its own moderates.
Second, the Tories have claimed the xenophobic vote and have excised part of the old-time Labour plurality.
Third, Labour has failed to appeal to the contra-xenophobes, to Remain-voters.
Labour is currently a party that is looking to the past, just like the Tories.
Yabba88 says: Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 11:12 am
An email to Manafort’s lawyers contains a copy of a letter from Rosenstein to Mueller confirming the scope of his investigation. In relation to Manafort, this letter contains the following clauses: investigate ….
“a crime or crimes by colluding with Russian government officials with respect to the Russian government’s efforts to interfere with the 2016 election for president of the United States, in violation of United States law.”
“crime or crimes arising out of payments (Manafort) received from the Ukrainian government before and during the tenure of President Viktor Yanukovych”
Certainly broad enough to cover the crimes Manafort has been charged with.
See https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/mueller-authorized-investigate-manafort-campaign-collusion-russians-documents-show-n862326
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Thanks Yabba88 – I was sure that Rod Rosenstein had given such authority to Robert Mueller – and the prosecutor in this action – Michael Dreeben – while no one is 100% infallible – and reputed to be one of the sharpest legal brains in the US
Manafort has already lost a civil suit on similar complaint
Manafort is charged in Virginia with financial violations related to his lobbying work in Ukraine prior to joining Trump’s 2016 campaign. Dreeben said they had to “follow the money” and find Manafort’s contacts with Russians through the Ukrainian work and his financial dealings as part of their investigation.
He lost a civil suit making similar complaints about the special counsel’s investigation last week. Manafort had filed a lawsuit in Washington claiming Rosenstein and Mueller exceeded their authority in charging him with alleged crimes he said had nothing to do with the 2016 campaign.
DC District Judge Amy Berman Jackson dismissed that lawsuit, saying a civil case was “not the appropriate vehicle” for objecting to either past or future actions by a prosecutor.
Manafort faces five charges in the case brought by Mueller’s prosecutors in DC federal court, including money laundering and foreign lobbying violations.
Michael Cohen pocketed $774,000 for transactions during the Trump campaign
President Donald Trump’s longtime attorney and fixer gained access to as much as $774,000 from two financial transactions conducted during the 2016 president campaign, The Wall Street Journal reported Friday.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/michael-cohen-pocketed-774000-transactions-trump-campaign/
Michael Cohen is paid to settle ‘nefarious acts’ Trump doesn’t want to get out: Watergate veteran Carl Bernstein
Immediately after the Wall Street Journal broke news that the president’s longtime personal attorney Michael Cohen made nearly three-quarters of a million dollars in 2016 from his work for Donald Trump, veteran Watergate journalist Carl Bernstein offered his take on the revelation.
“The key to Watergate that really broke everything open was the discovery of a slush fund that was used for nefarious purposes that was meant to be hidden,” the journalist who broke the story of President Nixon’s wiretap and subsequent cover-up told CNN’s Anderson Cooper.
“I don’t wanna speculate on where this is gonna go or what it means,” Bernstein continued, “but it is all part of a pattern that we are seeing in this investigation and why from the beginning Michael Cohen has been key to everything having to do with nefarious activities in the Trump campaign and also figures in the Russia investigation.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/michael-cohen-paid-settle-nefarious-acts-trump-doesnt-want-get-watergate-veteran-carl-bernstein/
Hi Victoria
Glad you enjoyed the killers
We took the whole family to see them in Sydney last Saturday night only problem is they come on the stage at 10 PM when my nightly cocoa is normally doing its job.
Plus Mrs ShellBell is now following Brandon Flowers on Instagram
phoenixRed:
Bernstein makes some very good points there.
Revisionist political expression is not unique to Britain, of course. It is clearly evident in the US (Trump) and in many parts of Europe. Its underlying moments are bitter, racist, jealous, nationalist, vindictive, romantic and reactionary.
The 21st century is too much for too many, who have succumbed to a post-millenial malaise.
Confessions @ #61 Saturday, May 5th, 2018 – 10:05 am
The judge is factually wrong (about Mueller’s mandate, at least, if not about his motivations).
Mueller has the authority to investigate “any matters that
arise directly from the investigation”, and also to prosecute “federal crimes arising from the investigation of these matters” whenever Mueller “believes it is necessary and appropriate” to do so.
If Manafort’s defense is “I’m not Trump and the money I laundered isn’t Russia”, he’s not going to get very far.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/17/us/politics/document-Robert-Mueller-Special-Counsel-Russia.html
Confessions says: Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 11:42 am
phoenixRed:
Bernstein makes some very good points there.
***********************************************************
Confessions I think ???? ….. you posted something late last night that the Cohen/Trump connection was the key to all this circus – and it looks like Carl Bernstein is thinking the same thing. Hopefully the FBI access to Cohen’s files, tapes, emails etc etc will bear fruit ….
Just went back a cog and found it :
Confessions says: Friday, May 4, 2018 at 8:02 pm
Laurence TribeVerified account@tribelaw
5h5 hours ago
If true — and I’ll bet it is — this shows Trump conspired with Cohen to rig the presidential election. Looks like a backup to Plan A, the plan relying on Putin and Wikileaks and Cambridge Analytica and Facebook.
https://twitter.com/TheLastWord/status/992233888016732160
Shellbell
Killers started playing around 9pm here in Melbourne.
Brandon flowers is an unusual guy but an absolutely brilliant singer.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/local-elections-british-politics-deadlocked-conservatives-labour-gains-expectations-councils-a8337061.html
Strikingly, a projected share of the national vote by the BBC, if all of Britain had gone to the polls, put both the Tories and Labour on 35 per cent – suggesting a nation still starkly divided.
The Tories supply the worst government since George III, and they can still break even with Corbyn-led Labour.
It is amazing that Labour set its sights on trying to win in Chelsea and Barnet but absolutely failed to represent the pro-Remain constituencies in the districts lying outside the capital.
‘Trump knew’ about Stormy Daniels hush money ‘months before he denied any knowledge of it’: NYT
What Donald Trump knew about hush money payments to former adult movie performer Stormy Daniels — and when he knew it — are in further question after a Friday evening report in The New York Times.
Citing two sources, The Times reports, “President Trump knew about a six-figure payment that Michael D. Cohen, his personal lawyer, made to a pornographic film actress several months before he denied any knowledge of it to reporters aboard Air Force One in April.”
The report noted that “three people close to the matter said that Mr. Trump knew that Mr. Cohen had succeeded in keeping the allegations from becoming public at the time the president denied it.”
Trump Organization chief financial officer Allen Weisselberg also reportedly knew about the Cohen reimbursement situation, which could lead to further investigations into the Trump family business.
“There’s no question it opens up another avenue of inquiry into the depths of the involvement of the Trump Organization,” Daniels’ attorney, Michael Avenatti, told The Times.
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/05/trump-knew-stormy-daniels-hush-money-months-denied-knowledge-nyt/
guytaur says:
Saturday, May 5, 2018 at 11:11 am
This chart would be a whole lot more interesting if it showed GDP per capita. We would be struggling to keep up with Japan, where the absolute economy is slowly growing, while in per capita terms things are better, and in terms of the size of the workforce, things are really quite impressive.
Michael AvenattiVerified account @MichaelAvenatti
This is consistent with what I stated last night to @andersoncooper on @ac360 – any claim that Mr. Trump had only recently found out about the payment is complete nonsense. Mr. Trump is on the ropes
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/04/us/politics/trump-hush-payment-stormy-daniels.html?smid=tw-share
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/giuliani-trump-michael-cohen-stormy-daniels.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fpolitics&action=click&contentCollection=politics®ion=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=2&pgtype=sectionfront
phoenixRed:
Yep. You have to wonder what else Cohen has ‘fixed’ for Trump.