Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

A fortnight on from the Malcolm Turnbull’s unfortunate Newspoll milestone, Newspoll itself suggests the embarrassment has done him little harm.

The latest Newspoll has Labor’s lead down from 53-47 to 51-49, which is the Coalition’s best result since the start of what is now Malcolm Turnbull’s run of 31 successive Newspoll defeats. This doesn’t reflect much activity on the primary vote, on which the Coalition and Labor are both steady at 38% and 37%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

There is also encouragement for Malcolm Turnbull on leadership ratings, with his approval up four to 36% and disapproval down four to 53%, although Bill Shorten also improves by two on approval to 34% and three on disapproval to 53%. Turnbull maintains only a very modest lead as preferred prime minister, of 38-35, out from 38-36 last time. The poll also finds strong support for a reduction in immigration levels, with 56% rating the present level too high, 28% about right, and only 10% too low.

A point that should be noted about the Coalition’s apparent improvement in Newspoll is that at least part of it would seem to be down to an adjustment in their preference allocations, from a model based purely on results from the 2016 election to one which gives the Coalition a stronger flow of One Nation preferences, presumably based on the experience of the Queensland and Western Australian state elections. The chart below compares the published two-party results from Newspoll with how the raw primary numbers convert using a) a 50-50 split in One Nation preferences, as they were in 2016; and b) a 60-40 split in the Coalition’s favour, which seems more likely based on state election experience.

It will be noted that Newspoll (the grey line) closely tracked the 50-50 model (the blue line) until December last year, when it snapped to the 60-40 model (the orange line). Also noteworthy is the overshoot of the grey line for the very latest result, which reflects the fact that the Coalition may have been a little lucky with rounding this week. As Kevin Bonham notes, a calculation from the published, rounded primary vote totals using the 50-50 preferences model yields a 52.4-47.6 lead for Labor – a result that would have generated considerably less buzz than this, the “best Coalition result in 18 months”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

547 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  6. Walked past the Apple store earlier. The usual bunch of sheeple. Plus the burly security guard.

    I wonder if the guard were actually from the Thought Police..

  8. China spending on infrastructure is amazing, the world has never seen its like.

    Have western economists factored in the likely exponential growth this will create in their economy. The US will never catch up once passed & that will be very soon.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23HZMB
    HZMB the worlds longest sea bridge & incorporating 7km of undersea tunnel… along the way

  9. Rex, as I said, you are really funny.

    In case you hadn’t noticed, your opinion on Shorten is statistically n=1.

    The ‘everybody hates Shorten’ meme is so ludicrous it doesn’t deserve your time.

    But go ahead, attract derision if that floats your particular boat

  10. I do not have problems with pop-up ads. I get ads, but they are not intrusive or inappropriate.

    I would suggest that people having problems change their setting so that a pop-up needs explicit permission each time.

    I am using (now) Safari, browsing in private mode, on Mac OS/X.

    I do not have a problem when using Safari in public mode, or with my Google Android system, or with my new iPhone. Neither of these are set for private browsing.

  12. shiftaling

    I’m getting the same blasted iphone “offer” back again after I thought I’d killed it. Every time I try to open pollbludger on my phone. It seems to be linked through Telstra media.

  13. I’ve just been playing around with with Williams redistribution pendulum.

    If you apply the Bludger Track State swings I get the following. (1st number is last election, 2nd number number has the current State swings included and the 3rd number is the seats lost.)

    Lib: 45/36/9
    LNP: 21/13/8
    Nat: 10/10/0
    NXT: 1/1/0
    KAT: 1/1/0
    Lab: 70/87/-17
    Grn: 1/1/0
    Ind: 2/2/0

    Two Liberal seats come out at 50/50 (Stirling and Robertson) and I have included them as a Labor gain.

    So that gives it 87 – 59 Labor. 🙂

  14. Thanks CC, that was an informative read. I would seem to have two options here — remove Google Ads altogether, or put up with it. For the time being I’ll monitor the situation.

  16. @sceptic

    China spending on infrastructure is amazing, the world has never seen its like.

    Have western economists factored in the likely exponential growth this will create in their economy. The US will never catch up once passed & that will be very soon.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23HZMB
    HZMB the worlds longest sea bridge & incorporating 7km of undersea tunnel… along the way

    I was at a meeting last week where one of the organisers talked about how the engineering that was tested in building the 500m FAST radio telescope () is now being applied to the Hong Kong to mainland sea bridge. It is really exciting.

  19. citizen @ #389 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 5:18 pm

    I don’t mind the ads in the sidebars of PB posts. They remind me of things I’ve been researching on the Internet recently. {smiley emoticon}

    Boy do I wish I would be able to fit into the pair of Levis 501s I just bought my son in a Size 30. I might whitelist PB so I can dream. 😉

  21. Lol! i see that with Malcolm surviving his 30 newspolls the ALP #leadershit has started up again.

    Seriously? Oh dear the ALP is not as far ahead as it was is the go?? FFS some people need to take a slightly broader perspective of politics and not fall for this crap.

  22. Is Julie Bishop such a shy, retiring female that she needs her ‘partner’ with her whenever she meets royalty or the rich and famous? I’m seeing his face photo bombing so many news reports it’s getting a bit over the top.

  25. The SA assistant state secretary, Peter Bauer, said the defence industry minister, Christopher Pyne, had broken a promise to the workers.

    “Only a few months ago, minister Pyne was out, with a silver shovel, turning over soil at ASC and saying that the valley of death is over,” he told reporters in Adelaide. “He needs to explain to those workers and to the workers behind me why that statement was made and today we had 197 workers be told that they’re going to be leaving the ASC workforce.”

    Bauer said the union had rung Pyne’s office a number of times during the day and was waiting for a response.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/23/shipbuilder-asc-to-cut-hundreds-of-jobs-as-union-points-finger-at-christopher-pyne

  26. This is the start of week 4 of public hearings of the Bank RC.

    There were two weeks last month where the focus was mortgage providers, one case was where a gym owner was referring people for loans with NAB and getting a commission.

    Also borrower evaluations weren’t examining individual circumstances but statistics on spending.
    One of the banks said if they didn’t take these short cuts, loan fess would be higher.
    That was one point I didn’t get, banks typically charge $500 or more for housing loan establishment fees, presumably for this sort of oversight.

    I hope they get to bank dealing rooms and examine the reports of interest rate manipulation.

  27. Interesting tidbit of information relayed by Jennifer Hewitt just now on The Drum:

    Malcolm Turnbull apparently wanted to go to China in the middle of the year but China has refused to grant him a visa due to his recent anti China rhetoric, especially around the time of the Bennelong by-election and Sam Dastyari imbroglio.

    PM Persona Non Grata.

  29. If Labor loses the federal election, I believe Tanya Plibersek would be most likely to become Labor leader.

    Although I don’t know how long Turnbull would last as Liberal leader if the Coalition wins another term.

    For Labor to win this and the next elections decisively, it needs to even more radical and be able to energise the young adult vote in the way Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders have done.

  30. Sarah Rees ‏ @sarahrees · 6h6 hours ago

    Loggers telling me that they’re often dropping trees with Gliders and they die on impact, are injured and die or their dogs run them down #springst @DELWP_Vic @LilyDAmbrosioMP @JaalaPulford @GavinJennings

    “The population of the Greater Glider is declining because of habitat loss, fragmentation, extensive fire, and some forestry practices, and this decline is likely to be exacerbated by climate change (Kearney et al. 2010). ”

  33. Jay @ #424 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 3:32 pm

    …

    For Labor to win this election decisively, it needs to even more radical and be able to energise the young adult in the way Jeremy Corbyn and Bernie Sanders have done. Perhaps Tanya Pibersek as Labor Leader could initiate changes.

    You don’t win elections by winning the youth vote.

    If that was true Labor would never lose!!

  34. Jay
    re Tanya Plibersek

    It is too soon for a female ALP Leader, and I do not want Tanya Plibersek to be subjected to the inevitable rampant disgusting sexism of our Federal Parliament and the Right Wing dominated media until she has had more experience.

  35. If all of youse taking a single poll to signify the demise of Labor will agree to go away and leave us all alone if the next Newspoll goes up, it would be much appreciated.

  37. Puffytmd @ #430 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 6:37 pm

    Jay
    re Tanya Plibersek

    It is too soon for a female ALP Leader, and I do not want Tanya Plibersek to be subjected to the inevitable rampant disgusting sexism of our Federal Parliament and the Right Wing dominated media until she has had more experience.

    I think Plibersek is a lot stronger than you give her credit for.

  38. mundo @ #426 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 3:35 pm

    I get the distinct feeling that this is the week it all starts slipping away from Labor…..

    Yes, so much good news for the Government!

    Methodology bounce in Newspoll, RC revelations supporting Labor’s policy direction, Minister’s being ridiculed, …

    so much good news!!! 🙂

  39. Sceptic says:
    Monday, April 23, 2018 at 5:30 pm
    China spending on infrastructure is amazing, the world has never seen its like.

    Have western economists factored in the likely exponential growth this will create in their economy. The US will never catch up once passed & that will be very soon.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23HZMB
    HZMB the worlds longest sea bridge & incorporating 7km of undersea tunnel… along the way

    A few years ago I saw the construction work at the HK end of this bridge/tunnel combination across the Pearl River estuary. It is truly an engineering marvel. I once tried to find out if there was a public bus service across a smaller (35 km) bridge across Hangzhou Bay near Shanghai but no luck. For some reason I find bridges (or even long piers) over water to be fascinating. The older bridges connecting the islands of the Florida Keys and the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in Louisiana are equally as interesting.

  40. Jay – 6:32.

    What nonesense.

    Both Corbyn and Sanders lost. Neither could energise youngsters in sufficient numbers in a voluntary voting system. Old farts swing further away from the progressive left in both contests and that demographic stranglehold isn’t going to dissipate until the fuckers up and die.

    We have a conpulsory voting system with conpulsory preferential voting.

    Frankly there is nothing wrong with Labor’s vote – whether primary votes or preferences – amongst either millenials or the younger x-gens: those that ain’t already on the team are obviously young fogeys who are not for turning.

    It’s the older x gens and boomers that are letting the team down.

    Stop your delusions – the swinging voters who will win this are not looking for inspirational virtue signalling or identity politics – just sensible policies to help navigate the mortgage, bills, health and education day to day issues that confront them. Real stuff and frankly the shite that the likes or Corbyn and Sanders bang on with are a complete turn off for those voters.

    In short Labor would be effectively shooting itself in the head if it took your advice…

  41. My wife has asked “How do they know what questions to ask including that they have supporting documentation and is it because of submissions made to the Royal Commission?”

    Well, no

    The banks and the Fund Managers were invited to self report as the first act of Hayne

    So the theatre being presented to the public is pre managed – because those being questioned have self reported on the basis of complaints on their books – or a fraction of them

    I explained that the Royal Commission came about because the “Big 4” relented to pressure and went to the government, a government which had supported the banks by resisting a Royal Commission and aggressively resisting

    So the Terms of Reference were agreed between government and the “Big 4” then including Fund Managers aimed at Industry Super Funds

    That is the history

    The ability to make submission was agreed and restrictive – including that it needed to be online on the prescribed document

    I do not know how many submissions have been made but, as we sit here today those submissions have not been made public (if they ever are) and have not been introduced to proceedings

    All we see is the result of self reporting – so stage managed for public consumption

    The measure of Heyne (a Liberal Party appointment) and the Royal Commission will be a statement that over and above the self reporting the nature and content of the public submissions requires an amendment to the Terms of Reference and an extension of time – plus the invitation for public submisssions at varyance from the current Terms of Reference

    Until then this Royal Commission is a tightly controlled sham under the direction of government, bankers and a compliant Commissioner

    And that the public submissions are made public – because only then will the public have confidence in the Royal Commission

  42. Andrew_Earlwood @ #436 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 6:48 pm

    Jay – 6:32.

    What nonesense.

    Both Corbyn and Sanders lost. Neither could energise youngsters in sufficient numbers in a voluntary voting system. Old farts swing further away from the progressive left in both contests and that demographic stranglehold isn’t going to dissipate until the fuckers up and die.

    We have a conpulsory voting system with conpulsory preferential voting.

    Frankly there is nothing wrong with Labor’s vote – whether primary votes or preferences – amongst either millenials or the younger x-gens: those that ain’t already on the team are obviously young fogeys who are not for turning.

    It’s the older x gens and boomers that are letting the team down.

    Stop your delusions – the swinging voters who will win this are not looking for inspirational virtue signalling or identity politics – just sensible policies to help navigate the mortgage, bills, health and education day to day issues that confront them. Real stuff and frankly the shite that the likes or Corbyn and Sanders bang on with are a complete turn off for those voters.

    In short Labor would be effectively shooting itself in the head if it took your advice…

    Yes yes of course Bill should be more like Hillary and Blair and everything would be sweeeet as !

  44. citizen @ #434 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 3:45 pm

    Sceptic says:
    Monday, April 23, 2018 at 5:30 pm
    China spending on infrastructure is amazing, the world has never seen its like.

    Have western economists factored in the likely exponential growth this will create in their economy. The US will never catch up once passed & that will be very soon.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/search?q=%23HZMB
    HZMB the worlds longest sea bridge & incorporating 7km of undersea tunnel… along the way

    A few years ago I saw the construction work at the HK end of this bridge/tunnel combination across the Pearl River estuary. It is truly an engineering marvel. I once tried to find out if there was a public bus service across a smaller (35 km) bridge across Hangzhou Bay near Shanghai but no luck. For some reason I find bridges (or even long piers) over water to be fascinating. The older bridges connecting the islands of the Florida Keys and the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway in Louisiana are equally as interesting.

    I don’t really get the Lake Pontchartrain Causeway.

    It doesn’t really go anywhere!! 🙂

    https://www.google.com/maps/@30.1404701,-90.1984336,90925m/data=!3m1!1e3

  45. C@tmomma @ #724 Monday, April 23rd, 2018 – 4:14 pm

    Interesting tidbit of information relayed by Jennifer Hewitt just now on The Drum:

    Malcolm Turnbull apparently wanted to go to China in the middle of the year but China has refused to grant him a visa due to his recent anti China rhetoric, especially around the time of the Bennelong by-election and Sam Dastyari imbroglio.

    PM Persona Non Grata.

    I see Mr Works Well With Others has also been in the media today carrying on about China and how the PM offended the nation.

  46. Shorten is also moving the ALP slightly leftward as he seems to sense that that is the way politics is moving at the moment.

  50. GG:

    Unfortunately the lies are coming so frequently, and they aren’t just small fibs, but big things that go directly to his character, that he’s normalising that kind of behaviour.

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