Two days out from the one we’ve all been waiting for, Fairfax has cutely interjected with an Ipsos poll – conducted on this most special of occasions from Tuesday to Thursday for publication on Friday night, and not from Thursday to Saturday for publication on Sunday night as standard. The sample is 1166, somewhat lower than the usual 1400 from Ipsos.
The headline two-party result of 52-48 to Labor, as determined using 2016 election preference flows, is only slightly above the Coalition’s usual form – but Malcolm Turnbull is given a very useful straw to grasp with a tied result using respondent-allocated preferences. This is something the Coalition hasn’t achieved on either kind of two-party measure in any poll since September 2016, except for the quirky and apparently short-lived YouGov series for Fifty Acres. The previous Ipsos poll in early December had Labor leading 53-47 on previous election preferences and 52-48 on respondent allocation. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 36%, Labor is up a point to 34%, and the Greens are down a point to 12% (high results for the Greens being a consistent features of Ipsos polls).
The good news for Malcolm Turnbull doesn’t end there: the poll finds only 28% in favour of the Liberals removing him as leader, compared with 62% who think he should remain, and his approval rating bounces five points to 47%, with disapproval down six to 43%. This is the first time since April last year that Turnbull has recorded net favourable personal ratings – the previous instance being another Ipsos poll, which is no coincidence, since the series consistently records high approval and low undecided ratings for both leaders. Bill Shorten is steady on 38% approval and up one on disapproval to 53%. The poll also finds 49% support for company tax cuts, with the number opposed not provided. This is dramatically more favourable than ReachTEL’s finding of 29% in favour and 56% opposed, although recent Essential Research polls have had slight net favourable results.
We have also had Roy Morgan publish results of its face-to-face polling for the second fortnight a row, which the pollster has hitherto been reserving for its massively expensive subscriber service since the 2016 election campaign. I’m not sure if this portends a regular return to publication, or if it will be appearing on an ad hoc basis, as the release a fortnight ago seemed to suggest. Whatever it is, the result is likewise on the high side for the Coalition, with Labor holding a steady 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is in contrast to the form of the Morgan face-to-face series of old, which was notorious for its skew to Labor.
However, as with Ipsos, it’s respondent allocation that’s making the difference – if previous election preferences were applied, Labor’s lead would be up from 51-49 to 53-47. The primary votes are Coalition 38.5%, down from 40% a fortnight ago; Labor 37.5%, up from 35%; Greens 11%, down from 12%; and One Nation on an unusually weak 3%, down from 3.5%. The Morgan release has two-party breakdowns by state and income category. The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a combined sample of 1477.
Jack Aranda @ #649 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 4:51 pm
Wishful thinking on our part, Jack. 🙂
Jacinta Price has secured preselection for the Country Liberals to contest Lingari at the next federal election. Warren Mundine is estatic on social media. Of course. …
Rossmcg. @ #649 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 4:51 pm
Sounds about right. Whatever date they’re telling you, add about 6 months to it and you’ll probably have service by then.
Price won’t beat Wozza Snowdon
Just ignore PVO and his WOW comment. He does this to get the trollers going.
Despite his undoubted intelligence, academic excellence, and reasonable commentariats, let’s not forget that PVO is a true Tory, great mates with Christian Porter and a significant member of the Judiciary from Uni days.
I suggest there may be some encouraging news for Turnbull in Newspoll as the MSM, and of course the ABC, have been working overtime to promote him.
Leigh Sales must be beside herself with excitement or despair.
People have become so accustomed to the continual 53-47 that even a small change up or down is likely to elicit great quantities of commentary. Most of it will be rubbish but it will keep the media and the LNP busy for days analysing and speculating.
Presumably the Pollie Pedal will be under intense media scrutiny tonight by the CPG’s finest, waiting for the moment that Abbott utters his long awaited comments on the Newspoll.
It will be 50/50.
Does Newspoll quote as their ‘headline’ 2PP the respondent allocated or last election allocated preferences?
The headline figure will be the one that sets the MSM narrative.
Would Newspoll un-round (to the nearest single decimal place, like they do for election eve polls, given the significance of this poll) the figure to provide a winner in the event that rounding to the nearest degree landed a 50/50?
Meanwhile, commentary on #NewsPoll30 has hit peak stupid with this effort from ‘constitutional lawyer’ and noted forelock-tugger Professor David Flint
The Spectator Australia columnist David Flint: When the 30th Newspoll comes out, @TurnbullMalcolm should go to the Governor-General, resign, and advise His Excellency to call on @TonyAbbottMHR to form a new government.
It’s one poll, the significance (or otherwise) of which will only be apparent in the months to come.
Newspolls dont move 3 points either way nowadays in only 2 to 3 weeks.I cant see there being that sharp a movement to 50-50.
I agree with PvO. I do not see Turnbull being ousted from the leadership. What does the party have to gain from switching to a new person? Just more chaos and dysfunction and voter turnoff.
“David Flint: When the 30th Newspoll comes out, @TurnbullMalcolm should go to the Governor-General, resign, and advise His Excellency to call on @TonyAbbottMHR to form a new government.” Yeah, right – because responsible government means the PM is responsible to the 1000 or so people who answer an opinion poll? Funny, I have a few politics and ConLaw texts and I haven’t found that one.
So here is the line up for the Abbott Peddle. The only ‘Pollie’ I recognise, apart from Abbott and Mr Grecian 2000 is possibly Angus Taylor second from left. Any other elected Member of any Parliament recognisable?
Netflix recommends Trump: An American Dream S1.
The Trump Imbroglio and disaster of his presidency has been enough, surely!
Is that Antony Green front row, far right?
Compromises forced on him in the leadership transition became evident: on same-sex marriage and climate change.
This was followed by some unmanaged and ill-disciplined kite-flying that deeply disturbed many Liberals. Significant all-options-on-the-table GST reform was floated.
At one stage Mr Turnbull even suggested the Commonwealth might withdraw from funding public schools altogether in exchange for the states getting greater taxation powers.
The inevitable and varied retreats from these big ideas saw primary support for the Coalition plummet.
It fell five points in just two months — or “five f***ing points”, as one Liberal ruefully remembers it — to 41 per cent.
So Newspoll doesnt matter to the Libs then?
And Stuart Roberts back row, 4th from the right?
citizen: The figure given by Newspoll has long been last-election preferences, but in the last few months it seems they may have been doing something different with the One Nation preferences specifically. Newspoll haven’t used respondent preferences since the old Newspoll had a bit of a disaster with them at the 2004 election.
As for peak stupid, everyone spreading the myth that Shorten will have won / the Coalition will have lost 60 consecutive Newspolls deserves to have a big pair of scissors taken to their internet connection.
To provide a bit of distraction, I am tidying up my emails and found this from the local ALP branch from 2016:
I thought Julie would be at the Eagles game.
I’m surprised that Malcolm isn’t providing support at Pollie Pedal, like putting laxatives in Tony’s water bottle.
Bushfire Bill @ #602 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 3:29 pm
I think you just gave Turnbull the out he needs.
And ironically (?) why all polling may (should?) now be ignored. Once you know that your answer affects the real world, that is it is more than just an opinion but is an actual influence on others, then your motivations change and your answers might mean something else than a naive interpretation of the question, and then the poll itself becomes suspect. Of course if you continue that line of reasoning you’re back at the beginning and your opinion doesn’t matter. The only conclusion then is that polls can’t be trusted.
Kevin Bonham @ #670 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 5:52 pm
The only useful statistics from polling are Primaries and TPP. Every thing else is fluff!
‘I suggest there may be some encouraging news for Turnbull in Newspoll’
Put money on it.
And the meeja will go absolutely wet pants for it….
Our great LNP will be in the lead tonight in newspoll.
ALP 46/LNP 54
Prefer PM Turnbull 45/shorten 31
Primary support
LNP 41
ALP 33
Grn 8
Oh 9
Others 5
i’d go wow if any it meant anything …
highlight of week was hanson and jones on aboriginal opening of games
“we didn’t come from aboriginals” !!
bad news darling, our culture and humanity most certainly did, it’s a well kept secret
wayne’s world is as dumb as half of party
my motto: australia – get a life
Once you know that your answer affects the real world, that is it is more than just an opinion but is an actual influence on others, then your motivations change and your answers might mean
True, but you have just questioned the entire basis of qantum physics.
Where if you measure something, say the position of a particle by bouncing light of it, you change its velocity.
You can only determine the position of a particle or its current velocity but not both.
Apparently Darren Chester was in the Pollie Pedal this year, but I can’t spot him in the photo.
Wayne @ #678 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 6:16 pm
a Load of Cobblers……..
Hes loose again on PB.
Wayne’s just wet his pants, and it has short circuited his brain.
One good thing about being in on PB at times like this, is you can’t be blamed for focusing on polling.
LNP will win the next election and Turnbull will be better PM
NYT op-ed “America’s Deathtrap Schools”. Suggests it would take many billions to bring America’s public schools up to a safe standard. Of course, Trump cares zilch.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/07/opinion/sunday/americas-deathtrap-schools.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region®ion=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-right-region
And my bet for Newspoll: 52/ 48 to ALP (post respondent preferences)
As all of Abbott’s agitating has come to nothing, this Newspoll really means nothing in isolation.
I’d suspect any favourable jump for the LNP will end up a short-lived outlier.
The trend has been amazingly constant.
*Rolls eyes*
John Reidy @ #602 Sunday, April 8th, 2018 – 6:23 pm
Yeah, but people are interpreting things before they actually happen
Lot’s of hedge betting.
Ratsak
You posted earlier today questioning why bother with light rail when buses can do the same thing cheaper and more flexibly. Given recent Australian examples I can understand that view. But in other countries, where transport policy is coherent and delivery competence based, light rail has increasingly proven to be highly effective. It has higher capacity than buses/busways, 1/2 the capacity of heavy rail but only 1/3 to 1/5 the cost, and often improves urban amenity, encouraging redevelopment along the corridor that is often even more important than the transport benefit. Some of the best recent examples have been built in France. Their policy is described here. They still build busways where demand is 10,000 pass/hr/direction. Only a handful of corridors in Australia exceed the second figure.
http://www2.developpement-durable.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/11001-2_Renouveau-tramway-France_GB-2.pdf
I would say the situation with LRT is a bit like the NBN. An expensive waste if done badly, but great if done well, and increasingly common in countries with growing urban centres. It is hard to get a clear picture of good transport policy in Australia, because we waste so much money doing things badly.
One 52-48 means little three in a row (thrice ?), would mean an improvement for the Government.
If it is 52 tonight I wonder how it will be written up.
Sorry there was an ipad glitch in my last post. The numbers are
Less than 3000/hr = busway
3000 to 10,000/hr = LRT
Greater than 10,000 = metro/ heavy rail
I think Wayne is this bloke:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkhx1KLa6BQ
and with his wife
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fb-f8CTafHs
Socrates
I second your comment.
citizen
Yeah, unlike Obama,Dubya, Clinton, Bush,Reagan who attacked the lack of infrastructure spending with zeal……………..Oh wait.
The culture I grew up in celebrated Christmas Eve with presents. Tonight feels a bit like that. I hope I’m getting what I really want.
Ides
Thanks. Where do you work? I am in Adelaide.