BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns provide new grist for the BludgerTrack mill, highlighted by strong numbers for Labor in South Australia despite their unhappy state election result.

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).

Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.

It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.

The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.

Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 53 of 57
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  1. Diogenes @ #2594 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 3:54 pm

    “The fall back position is always what you do well.”
    There is a well-described problem caused the VIP syndrome. Never manage a patient differently because of who they are.

    Unless you get the chance to treat the Dutton, of course. Then it would be perfectly reasonable to fix his eyes using a potato peeler.

  2. Don,

    I’ve had two cataract operations. One private; the other public. The private was selected pretty well because he was near to home.

    In both cases, the operation itself was routine, I was told. The drops in the affected eye for the next 2 (or was it 4?) weeks were a nuisance, as I kept on missing. I had “dry eye” for a couple of weeks with one eye, and the other eye had a beautiful black eye for a few days.

    I’m used to wearing glasses for reading and so on, so I chose distance lenses for both eyes, and still use glasses for closer stuff. These days, I can see well over distances.

    The effect in the worse eye was immediate. From being barely able to read an eye chart one day (pre-op), to being able to read it “normally” the next day (post-op).

    Oh, and I don’t need to get new lenses in my glasses every two years.

    Just a patient’s perspective.

  3. I’ve noticed that Bolt is refusing to back Dutton and continues to ask for Abbott back, a la RGR. He’s also pissed off with Howie for saying the Libs should stick with Turnbull.
    Pass the popcorn

  6. Dio:

    I would’ve thought Bolt would be a Dutton backer.

    Surely even he can see the folly of returning to Abbott?

  9. I live in the Corangamite electorate. It’s a lake. I don’t see why there is a need to change the name. ‘Cox’ is certainly very bland, and named after some swimmer/swimming instructor I’ve never heard of. This country and its bloody (spectator) sport obsession…

    In general, I am not a fan of naming places/body parts (e.g. Eustachian tube) etc. after people.

    edit – OK, Lake Corangamite will now be outside of the boundaries of the electorate. Still, they could have come up with something better than ‘Cox’.

  10. ag0044 says:
    Friday, April 6, 2018 at 4:02 pm
    Don,

    I’ve had two cataract operations. One private; the other public. The private was selected pretty well because he was near to home.

    In both cases, the operation itself was routine, I was told. The drops in the affected eye for the next 2 (or was it 4?) weeks were a nuisance, as I kept on missing. I had “dry eye” for a couple of weeks with one eye, and the other eye had a beautiful black eye for a few days.

    I’m used to wearing glasses for reading and so on, so I chose distance lenses for both eyes, and still use glasses for closer stuff. These days, I can see well over distances.

    The effect in the worse eye was immediate. From being barely able to read an eye chart one day (pre-op), to being able to read it “normally” the next day (post-op).

    Oh, and I don’t need to get new lenses in my glasses every two years.

    Just a patient’s perspective.

    Thanks ag0044. I was under the mistaken impression that you walked in to something like a dental appt, and walked out an hour or two later with perfect vision, I knew nothing about after op care!

  11. Mr Newbie @ #2604 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 1:11 pm

    I live in the Corangamite electorate. It’s a lake. I don’t see why there is a need to change the name. ‘Cox’ is certainly very bland, and named after some swimmer I’ve never heard of. This country and its bloody (spectator) sport obsession…

    It’s a lake that is no longer in the electorate.

    That’s the reasoning for the change.

  14. don says:
    Friday, April 6, 2018 at 4:14 pm

    Thanks ag0044. I was under the mistaken impression that you walked in to something like a dental appt, and walked out an hour or two later with perfect vision, I knew nothing about after op care!

    In both cases, I arrived about 1pm and got home around 5 or 6 pm. Most of the time is sitting around either waiting for various pre-op drops to take effect, or until you are steady enough to walk to the car, after the sedative. You are not allowed to drive home … nor are you allowed to go ballroom dancing.

    I did have a mild bit of gritiness after one of the ops. In both cases, the worst pain was the needle in the arm. I am a wimp. I was nervous going into the first op, but went into the second with no qualms.

  16. citizen @ #2559 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 2:39 pm

    According to Trump, if the US imposes trade sanctions on other countries it is “fair”. If that other country retaliates, it is “unfair”.

    President Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war rhetoric with China on Thursday evening, saying he was considering another wave of steep tariffs on the country’s exports to the United States.

    “In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the [United States Trade Representative] to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate,” the president said in a statement.

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/05/news/trump-tariff-china-trade-war/index.html

    Because inviting further retaliation from China directed at his base is the smart thing to do! 🙄

  17. Itzadream:

    Talk it through with the eye surgeon. He might give options; he might be more categorical and say this is the procedure for you. Horses for courses. And he knows what he is best at. It’s the thing – don’t change technique for ‘outside’ reasons.

    ________________________

    good advice, thank you.

    I am but a humble maths teacher, and periodically the next great teaching method comes along, which fails miserably, (remember having to learn base 2 arithmetic because it is used in computers? Or open plan classrooms and team teaching?) and we go back to what we do best.

    At one time all classroom teachers were going to be replaced by videos of the best teachers teaching the best lessons. Failed miserably. It was a one week wonder. Videos are opportunities for students to zone out and use their iphones under the table.

    And the kids are glad to get good teaching again.

    At the same time, some good things have emerged from the internet – ‘hotmaths’ (and others) for example, where students get practice in whatever they are a bit unsure of.

    And the internet is great for Geography. And presumably for English. I know I could have done with a synopsis of ‘Vanity Fair’ (the Thackeray novel) when I was doing year 12. I never did finish that book, it was the most boring thing I have ever tried to read, and I love good books, and read a lot, still.

  18. Mr Newbie @ #2603 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 4:11 pm

    I live in the Corangamite electorate. It’s a lake. I don’t see why there is a need to change the name. ‘Cox’ is certainly very bland, and named after some swimmer/swimming instructor I’ve never heard of. This country and its bloody (spectator) sport obsession…

    In general, I am not a fan of naming places/body parts (e.g. Eustachian tube) etc. after people.

    edit – OK, Lake Corangamite will now be outside of the boundaries of the electorate. Still, they could have come up with something better than ‘Cox’.

    The lady that the electorate will now be named after played a leading role in setting up the ‘Learn to Swim’ system in Victoria. Not competitive swimming, actually lowering numbers of those drowned.

  19. C@tmomma @ #2611 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 1:27 pm

    citizen @ #2559 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 2:39 pm

    According to Trump, if the US imposes trade sanctions on other countries it is “fair”. If that other country retaliates, it is “unfair”.

    President Donald Trump ratcheted up the trade war rhetoric with China on Thursday evening, saying he was considering another wave of steep tariffs on the country’s exports to the United States.

    “In light of China’s unfair retaliation, I have instructed the [United States Trade Representative] to consider whether $100 billion of additional tariffs would be appropriate,” the president said in a statement.

    http://money.cnn.com/2018/04/05/news/trump-tariff-china-trade-war/index.html

    Because inviting further retaliation from China directed at his base is the smart thing to do! 🙄

    Maybe Trump’s been reading about the Khmer Rouge?

  20. AGL fires back at Turnbull, Sims and various journos – (wtte) rack off:

    However, Mr Vesey said Liddell is a key part of AGL’s portfolio now and into the future.

    “We announced in April, 2015 we would close it at the end of its economic life in 2022, from that period until its close it is an extremely valuable piece of our portfolio,” he told a CEDA energy forum in Sydney.

    Past 2022, AGL plans to utilise the site to provide energy security to the NSW market, he said.

    The company has proposed using a mix of battery, gas and renewable energy.

    “Our vision is to have (Liddell) as a renewable infrastructure hub, a place you provide other services such as storage capacity,” Mr Vesey said.

    http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/breaking-news/minister-pressures-agl-on-liddell-sale/news-story/21a5e85a9d21cfb3ecc71e3cc1c92159

  21. Vogon Poet says:
    Friday, April 6, 2018 at 3:53 pm
    Itza and Don
    I had lens replacement about 7 years ago, I used to wear specs/contact lens that were +10/+10.5 ( extremely long sighted ). I saw a couple of specialists, I thought I wanted the graduated ring type which allow multi-focus vision for each eye ( crudely put ). 2 of the specialists were happy to do those. The other one wasn’t, in fact said he’d refuse to do them. He said the vision isn’t perfectly clear with the graduated ones, and that I’d be unhappy with them. So i went with him and got the short/long eye lens. Very happy.
    The only downside was I had to send my surgical loupes back to the USA to get the distance eye side modified, small price to pay though.

    _____________________

    Never thought of that. But surely you would have had to get the loupes modified every (say) five years or so anyhow?

    I asked my optometrist about laser surgery, where the cornea is reshaped by laser. He told me, knowing how much I value clear eyesight, that I would be deeply unhappy with it, because it reduces acuity.

    My (corrected since age 9) eyesight has always been excellent, and I would hate for things to go wrong. I spend a lot of time on photoshop manipulating and enhancing images for my archaeology website, and good eyesight is essential.

  22. Because inviting further retaliation from China directed at his base is the smart thing to do!

    I posted a link earlier of an assessment of who stood to win from a China-US trade war. Conclusion:

    – China has much more to lose than the US overall, however;

    – China has stronger political and economic might than Trump/US and so can do some serious damage to the US if Trump wanted to escalate things / not back down.

    Interesting times. I reckon as the midterms creep up and Republicans in affected soybean states start arking up, Trump is going to have to back down.

  25. With the impending poll putting the focus on Mr Turnbull’s leadership, and with some of his MPs contemplating a move later this year, the Prime Minister told The Australian Financial Review that much of what he promised when he rolled Tony Abbott in September 2015 was being delivered.

    “When I stood up and nominated to be leader of the Liberal Party in 2015, I said that I would deliver economic leadership and I would deliver traditional cabinet government, among other things,” he said.

    “Economic leadership, we have demonstrated that, I think, very, very convincingly.

    “The strongest jobs growth in the nation’s history surely is a demonstration that our economic policies are working and the confidence, the support for investment, the support for employment which we are delivering is paying results.”

    Pessimism is rife throughout the Coalition about its electoral prospects. Some conservatives who discussed the situation during a meeting last week are warning of a move as early as August should the May budget not improve the government’s standing.

    Sources said the federal Liberal Party’s own internal polling has it trailing Labor by 52 per cent to 48 per cent which is slightly better than the 53-47 deficit which has been entrenched in recent Newspolls and Fairfax/Ipsos polls.

    “I said that I would deliver economic leadership and I would deliver traditional cabinet government, among other things,” he said.
    “Economic leadership, we have demonstrated that, I think, very, very convincingly.”

    Does anyone agree with Mal? Note he wasn’t arguing on traditional cabinet government 😆

  27. Don, had my loupes set up for wearing contact lens, so the loupes didn’t need changing.
    With my ” new” eyes, I can never remember which one is short/long, have to cover an eye to check. They are also different brands, with a slightly different tint, so when I close an eye, each one sees a slightly different colour, type of like the difference between a cool/warm light.

  28. This is ridiculous. Canberra weather for the next week is forecast at 28-31 max and very little chance of rain.

    Take that, you climate change deniers!

    #WeatheronPB

  30. “Economic leadership, we have demonstrated that, I think, very, very convincingly.”

    Yes, they have convincingly demonstrated poor economic leadership!

  32. With the impending poll putting the focus on Mr Turnbull’s leadership, and with some of his MPs contemplating a move later this year, the Prime Minister told The Australian Financial Review that much of what he promised when he rolled Tony Abbott in September 2015 was being delivered.

    Maybe. But the reason WHY hasn’t changed. 30 losing Newspolls indicating the inability of the Coalition to win the next federal election under the present leader.

    All else is simply sophistry on Turnbull’s part.

  34. Yes there has been good jobs growth, but precisely what did the government do to facilitate that?

    I suppose you could say they didn’t cancel the NDIS, but apart from that what did they do?


  35. Tom Hawkins (AnonBlock)
    Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:09 pm
    Comment #2625
    Speaker: I call on the member for Cox to withdraw.
    Exactly. Corangamite is a lovely word; cox is a chook of a word.

  36. frednk @ #2627 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:10 pm


    As a species we have shown enough cleverness to disrupt the world’s climate, but may not have enough to remedy the damage that we’ve done. Things are of course made very much worse by the presence in the White House of an aggressively ignorant and anti-science administration.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/05/the-guardian-view-on-antarctica-the-worrying-retreat-of-the-ice

    I said earlier today that we are rapidly discovering that what were once thought to be “slow” (i.e. hundreds of years) impacts of global warming are now known to be happening much, much faster than we thought possible.

    This was one of the things I had in mind 🙁

  37. don (Block)
    Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 4:28 pm
    Comment #2611

    Never thought of that. But surely you would have had to get the loupes modified every (say) five years or so anyhow?

    I asked my optometrist about laser surgery, where the cornea is reshaped by laser. He told me, knowing how much I value clear eyesight, that I would be deeply unhappy with it, because it reduces acuity.

    My (corrected since age 9) eyesight has always been excellent, and I would hate for things to go wrong. I spend a lot of time on photoshop manipulating and enhancing images for my archaeology website, and good eyesight is essential.

    You are, of course, part of a courageous band of warriors, searching among the ruins of good government for what has latterly become known as:-

    The gang who couldn’t shoot straight.

    So far, it seems, some worn out horse shoes and what could be the foresight (pun ❓ ) from an ancient hogleg pistol have been found.

    You must know that you are doomed to failure as the funding will very soon be transferred to the Society for the Search For Intelligent Life in the LNP .

    May the Good Lord bless you and maintain your supply of Choccy Frogs. 🐸🐸

  38. Newspoll 30 is a certain Coalition loss. If they occur every fortnight I assume Newspoll 40 is a certain loss, some time in September.
    Bad polls seem to beget bad polls. There is only ever the one story – leadership. That adds to a sense of self focussed Government.
    The question is will the Liberals continue on what will be then seen as an inevitable loss of significant proportion, with Malcolm.
    Or will he be tapped privately by Julie,or challenged or will he be left alone.? No one knows. But the speculation will continue in every media outlet.
    And Newspoll 50 will beckon.

  39. The world’s biggest lithium-ion battery — built by tech billionaire Elon Musk’s company Tesla last year — has survived its first summer in South Australia’s mid-north.

    And according to a new report by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), it’s outperforming coal and gas generators on some key measures.

    Here’s a look at how it’s performed and its potential impact on the future of power in Australia…

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-06/tesla-battery-outperforms-coal-and-gas/9625726

  40. Things are of course made very much worse by the presence in the White House of an aggressively ignorant and anti-science administration.

    It’s a bit rich for we Aussies to be attacking Trump’s Administration for its anti-science, AGW denying characteristics when we have the exact same govt here which has been woefully negligent on reducing our GHGEs, schlepping lumps of coal into parliament, and generally doing all it can to advance the destruction of our natural environment.

    I really do hope that in 10 years time this govt’s period in office, and Turnbull’s in particular is looked upon with disgust at the lost opportunities and flagrant waste.

  41. Joel Fitzgibbon‏Verified account @fitzhunter · 19h19 hours ago

    Labor went to the last election promising to implement a 6 Point Plan on animal welfare and live exports.The plan included the resurrection of the Inspector General for Animal Welfare and an independent office for animal welfare.The Government should now embrace our plan

  43. citizen @ #2633 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:30 pm

    The world’s biggest lithium-ion battery — built by tech billionaire Elon Musk’s company Tesla last year — has survived its first summer in South Australia’s mid-north.

    And according to a new report by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), it’s outperforming coal and gas generators on some key measures.

    Here’s a look at how it’s performed and its potential impact on the future of power in Australia…

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-04-06/tesla-battery-outperforms-coal-and-gas/9625726

    Yeah. Nup. Check out this before you start celebrating (thanks to LU for the link) – http://www.wattclarity.com.au/2018/03/fcas-in-action-what-happens-when-a-generator-trips/

  45. frednk @ #2629 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:14 pm


    Tom Hawkins (AnonBlock)
    Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:09 pm
    Comment #2625
    Speaker: I call on the member for Cox to withdraw.
    Exactly. Corangamite is a lovely word; cox is a chook of a word.

    Her name was May Cox, 1883-1953, being recognised “for her lasting legacy in the teaching of Victorian swimming and lifesaving.” You could call the electorate May, I suppose?
    Edit: Or perhaps we grow up a bit and call it Cox?

  46. “The commissioners decided that, while May Cox deserved to have the electorate named in her honour on her merits, the honour would not be bestowed as the name sounds funny and might cause young children or their older mental equivalents to snigger.”

  47. Noticed talk on cataracts, I had always 20:20 vision . About 10 years ago had a detached retina , happened on a Saturday of a long weekend, while.away at a birthday party Had no idea why couldn’t see my nose out of that eye, was Tuesday before could get into Eye Specialist, was on plane to Sydney that afternoon , to see as i was told the best guy in Australia, later backed up by other people, operated on 7pm in his private rooms in Macquarie St. Vision down to 30% would have been blind by morning in that eye. Sure cost me well over Private Health and Medicare cover. But was my eyesight. Anyway told that cataracts would advance quickly, reason not known. They did within 2 years, my eye specialist eye operated . Result(checked last month) still 20.20 vision. Getting older so very lucky, both eye specialist and I determined to keep them that way. He tells me I have the strongest optic nerves he has seen.

  48. Tim Watts MP‏Verified account @TimWattsMP · 3m3 minutes ago

    You only have to look to the US to see that an independent Electoral Commission is one of Australian democracy’s most precious institutions.

    What on earth are the Greens trying to achieve with baseless and damaging rhetoric like this?

    The two new seats are created in areas with growing populations, according to AEC formulas to improve the balance of each electorate to more closely reflect the principle of one vote, one value.

    But it is the downstream effect of shifting boundaries that has outraged the Greens.

    The party’s Victorian state director, Clare Quinn, said it was still looking at the detail and would formally respond to the proposal but “we’re concerned that Labor’s proposed gerrymander to lock the Greens out of the inner city has been taken up”.

    The Greens are concerned that areas rich with Greens votes in Labor-held Wills and Batman have moved into Melbourne, which is already held by the Greens.

    Melbourne loses parts of Flemington and Ascot Vale, which could benefit Labor in Melbourne by moving Liberal voters into Maribyrnong.

    A Labor left MP acknowledged that Melbourne shrinking on its western edge was beneficial to Labor but said “the Greens can’t say that’s not a legitimate choice for the AEC to make”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/06/greens-accuse-labor-of-gerrymander-in-draft-seat-redistribution

  49. lizzie @ #2634 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:34 pm

    Joel Fitzgibbon‏Verified account @fitzhunter · 19h19 hours ago

    Labor went to the last election promising to implement a 6 Point Plan on animal welfare and live exports.The plan included the resurrection of the Inspector General for Animal Welfare and an independent office for animal welfare.The Government should now embrace our plan

    Isn’t it great how Labor have an already announced policy ready to throw in the Coalition’s faces as required? 🙂

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