The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).
Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.
It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.
The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.
Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.
Thank you William.
Al Pal @ #2632 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:29 pm
If he is tapped I think it will be by a stalking horse – just to bring on a leadership spill – maybe kevin andrews but if abbott thinks he has no chance of winning a partyroom ballot – it may well be him.
The idea of course is not to have ‘blood on your hands’ but to have just thrown your hat into the ring – thats what dutton, mesma, slowmo would be aming to do.
But you’re right – we don’t know if the tories have the bottle to bring a challenge on at all – and its hard to see how they could be confident of coming up with someone who is capable of turning the polls around etc etc.
If not – why bother – apart from the fact that they are utterly divided and at each others throats constantly, are bankrupt financially, morally as well as policy wise.
Would turnbull immediately run to the GG if a spill is called, resign from politics immediately if removed as PM or stay on to knife his replacement ?
Its just great to see them in such a position – which they so rightly deserve.
The MSM ARE reporting this, but are not laying in the boot or highlighting it all in really much depth.
Let them wallow and run out of time.
They may well need turnbull’s money at the next election. They certainly will need someone to blame.
P1, it doesn’t surprise me that effects of global warming is happening at a faster rate than we expected.
All the affects of AGW, that I am aware of, are positive feedbacks. Positive feedbacks have a habit of speeding up the process until it runs riot and collapses.
If there are negative feedbacks, please let me know so I won’t be so depressed about the whole thing.
Would have thought Cassidy was experienced enough not to be swayed by the Guthrie narrative – but it seems not. Disappointed.
My dark horse to lead the Liberals as their Opposition Leader after the next election is Alan Tudge. I just get the feeling he won’t die wondering about a challenge to the accepted order of things. Plus he’s a Victorian, so would likely corral some high power backers behind him. Maybe even unlock the money from the Cormack Foundation.
Don’t know what is going on here. Littleproud is a Nat and Minister for Ag but he is not a farmer.
It actually looks like he doing something approaching the right thing.
I suspect his fellow Nats will be on to him quick smart.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/06/live-export-ship-banned-from-leaving-dock-unless-welfare-conditions-met
rossmcg:
On Littleproud’s revelation having seen the film evidence, this comes to mind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZmWBrN7QV6Y
The new ACT seat of Bean is apparently named after this gentleman. And highly appropriate IMHO.
If you haven’t seen it, David Flint has a recent article in the Spectator on Abbott and the Monash forum.
A take down is on loon pond
http://loonpond.blogspot.com.au/2018/04/in-which-pond-turns-to-speccie-mob-for.html?m=1
One of Parker’s best, though she has excellent source material.
The Greens are over-reacting and deserve this sarcasm. 😉
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/world/china-vows-to-fight-trump-on-trade-at-any-cost-20180406-h0yf7p
The pigeons are (maybe) coming home to roost.
Dutton’s department has been behaving illegally aswell.
How much is still hidden from us?
A topical ‘toon from Mark Knight:
PeeBee @ #2647 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:59 pm
Well, there’s the oceans. The oceans actually absorb about half of the C02 we generate. Without this, we would already be cooked. And they will continue to do so once we stop generating C02, reducing atmospheric C02 in the process. That’s a good thing, right? 🙂
Well … maybe not. As the oceans absorb all this C02, they acidify. This means their ability to absorb C02 declines over time, and the same process will also destroy many ocean ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs), killing much of our current marine life in the process 🙁
Maybe just forget I mentioned it! 🙁
Turnbully is on a hiding to nothing here.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/06/agl-chief-determined-to-turn-liddell-into-renewables-hub
Confessions
David Rowe is brilliant isn’t he.
BTW have just been told by a friend he has just been polled by Newspoll.
Off for dinner now with visitors.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/06/western-australian-hunters-accused-of-releasing-feral-pigs-for-sport
A number of media outlets have been reporting this –
but not including this bit –
Read more: http://www.afr.com/business/energy/electricity/agl-energy-ceo-andy-vesey-lauds-extremely-valuable-liddell-site-20180402-h0y8n1#
Lizzie
I have heard stories about the WA pig hunters for years.
There are people in some south-west towns who would not have been out of place in the movie Deliverance.
Mari:
Yes he is. Enjoy your dinner.
rossmcg
It always impresses me how selfish people can be, in so many aspects of life, and that characteristic does not bode well for humanity in the long run.
Its been fairly obvious for some time that the role of new gas plants will be as backup units for a relatively few hours per year. Not as wholesale replacements for coal fired power plants.
The economics of the situation are that not only will coal fired plants be replaced with renewables with storage, but that their replacement will be brought forward.
lizzie,
I wonder if there’s anything that Vesey can do to hasten the construction of Liddel’s replacement, so that it becomes obvious for the news cameras?
Pseudo Cud Chewer
I’m just so glad that Vesey is refusing to be bullied.
I don’t know who took this pic, but it says so much.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/06/greens-accuse-labor-of-gerrymander-in-draft-seat-redistribution?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet
I don’t know what’s up with the Greens in recent years, but they have seriously lost the plot under Di Natale’s leadership. Now they’re seeing Labor gerrymandering in the recent AEC redistributions.
Lizzie
Indeed. There are so many who think rules don’t apply to them and they take pride in flouting them.
In that part of the world many transgressions are related to attempts to protect the environment. Fishing bag limits and season restrictions are ignored, closed tracks in the forest are reopened by cutting the lock and destroying the gate, firewood is collected from protected areas.
And the pigs.
The various government departments have limited resources to enforce the rules.
I am sure it is the same where you live.
“Everyone complains that politicians are focused on polls – well I think the media is very focused on polls and various others are focused on polls, my job has got to be focused on delivering good policy, stronger economic growth, greater opportunities and so forth.”
Um, Malcolm, you were the one who was so focused on the polls that you used them to topple an elected Liberal Prime Minister!
Confessions @ #2669 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
It’s a wonder we haven’t seen Pegasus, Rex and Nicholas here banging that drum!
Conservatives talk about “disruption” as if it were unreservedly a good thing. Well it has destroyed jobs and job security, old jobs having been automated and/or sent to low wage countries, old-style unionism pretty much wiped out and elites (the only ones that count, those with money) able vacuum wealth out of the system and hide it in tax havens as fast as its extracted or created. So far so good. Now it’s about to attack Coal. Panic time.
rossmcg
Yes.
Think of the people who cut down trees just to improve their view of the sea.
Then there are the ones who make money by capturing and smuggling endangered animals.
Compared to these and similar, being locked up for not paying a fine is utterly ridiculous.
I don’t have much faith in the quality of Australia’s executive class, but anyone who thought a guy who’s got as far as Vesey would be intimidated by a pissant like Trumble really is stupid. Vesey’s on millions. He will want to stay on millions for quite some time into the future. You don’t let a joke like Brian risk that. Vesey knows as well as the rest of us that this government is terminal. There’s no upside for him in helping Trumble and no downside in telling him to gagf. He and his team have made their plans long ago and nothing the joke currently occupying the Lodge says or does will have the slightest chance of varying those plans short of billions in government cash.
Lizzie @6:43PM: preview, 9:30PM election night 2019.
Confessions @ #2670 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:45 pm
Imagine what Labor could do if they were actually in Government ?
Just jerking the greens chain 🙂 AEC is Independent etc etc.
C@t:
I don’t know how Labor can orchestrate a gerrymander from opposition, but there you go.
And I’m not surprised there aren’t any Greens around to defend their party after the disastrous week it’s had. Di Natale’s grab bag of uncosted announcements sunk under the weight of policy scrutiny by the media and experts over yesterday and today. And there’s the party’s now awkward policy stance on abandoning (or is it?) carbon pricing and market mechanisms in favour of heavier govt intervention.
I’m of the view we need a party dedicated to holding major parties to account on the environment and addressing AGW. We do not have that party in today’s Greens party.
lizzie
Years back local #%$#$$%# WA hunters were doing the same thing with feral goats.
lizzie @ #2664 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:36 pm
lizzie,
You might enjoy reading this article then, or not 🙂
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/america-takes-the-next-step-toward-tyranny.html
lizzie @ #2682 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:57 pm
This is a headline at 9, won’t click on it , headline says all I need to see :
Don’t know what the Greens are on about. Labor couldn’t do a gerrymander even if it wanted to. The boundaries are determined by the independent AEC, not Federal or (as in the USA) State Governments. And, of course, Labor is not in power Federally.
Don’t the Greens have some real issues to talk about?
It’s fake news that Hanson “just called herself” an indigenous Australian. The comments were made this morning in response to the Cwlth Games opening ceremony. Full comments can be read here:
https://twitter.com/michaelkoziol/status/982056637325238272
Steve777
I’d like to see Greens attacking some of the LNP policies and illegal actions. That would make more sense than ignorant accusations about electoral boundaries.
‘Fess,
I get the feeling The Greens totally lost the plot after the Batman by-election loss. I reckon the swing to Labor in what they thought was their stronghold south of Bell St probably did their heads in. Now they don’t know what they stand for any more since their tried and true shibboleths of Adani and Asylum Seekers weren’t enough to swing it their way.
RDN tried that on Wednesday and his announcements were roundly debunked as too costly and taking the piss out of voters, nicely summed up by this woman:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/plan-for-universal-basic-income-ignores-the-value-of-work-20180405-p4z7vo.html
Fess
C@t:
If Di Natale’s opening mea culpa at the NPC are any indication you can throw Tas regret in with Batman.
I’d also add WA to that.
I think the Greens have adopted yet another Liberal Policy – we’re the party born to rule. Liberal – Green, same, same.
Tom.
The latest Morgan Poll seems a bit odd
Yes lizzie, in comments made earlier this morning, not recently.
C@t
I can’t take any more deep thinking today. I think I’ll retire with a headache. 🙂