BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns provide new grist for the BludgerTrack mill, highlighted by strong numbers for Labor in South Australia despite their unhappy state election result.

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).

Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.

It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.

The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.

Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Al Pal @ #2632 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:29 pm

    Newspoll 30 is a certain Coalition loss.

    The question is will the Liberals continue on what will be then seen as an inevitable loss of significant proportion, with Malcolm.

    Or will he be tapped privately by Julie,or challenged or will he be left alone.? No one knows. But the speculation will continue in every media outlet.
    And Newspoll 50 will beckon.

    If he is tapped I think it will be by a stalking horse – just to bring on a leadership spill – maybe kevin andrews but if abbott thinks he has no chance of winning a partyroom ballot – it may well be him.

    The idea of course is not to have ‘blood on your hands’ but to have just thrown your hat into the ring – thats what dutton, mesma, slowmo would be aming to do.

    But you’re right – we don’t know if the tories have the bottle to bring a challenge on at all – and its hard to see how they could be confident of coming up with someone who is capable of turning the polls around etc etc.

    If not – why bother – apart from the fact that they are utterly divided and at each others throats constantly, are bankrupt financially, morally as well as policy wise.

    Would turnbull immediately run to the GG if a spill is called, resign from politics immediately if removed as PM or stay on to knife his replacement ?

    Its just great to see them in such a position – which they so rightly deserve.

    The MSM ARE reporting this, but are not laying in the boot or highlighting it all in really much depth.

    Let them wallow and run out of time.

    They may well need turnbull’s money at the next election. They certainly will need someone to blame.

  2. P1, it doesn’t surprise me that effects of global warming is happening at a faster rate than we expected.

    All the affects of AGW, that I am aware of, are positive feedbacks. Positive feedbacks have a habit of speeding up the process until it runs riot and collapses.

    If there are negative feedbacks, please let me know so I won’t be so depressed about the whole thing.

  3. Grunta‏ @gruntat · 10h10 hours ago

    #Auspol
    Barrie Casidy (sic) awards his wooden spoon to 5 Alp members who paid for a LW magazine after it was OKed by dept of finance yet ignores #Parakeelia & sees Mat Guys breaking accepted political convention re pairing as unaward winning.
    Cassidy going the way of our Rupified # ABC

    Would have thought Cassidy was experienced enough not to be swayed by the Guthrie narrative – but it seems not. Disappointed.

  4. My dark horse to lead the Liberals as their Opposition Leader after the next election is Alan Tudge. I just get the feeling he won’t die wondering about a challenge to the accepted order of things. Plus he’s a Victorian, so would likely corral some high power backers behind him. Maybe even unlock the money from the Cormack Foundation.

  5. The Greens are over-reacting and deserve this sarcasm. 😉

    Shorten_Suite ‏ @Shorten_Suite
    Shorten_Suite Retweeted Paul Karp

    Our secret plan to gerrymander the country via the independent electoral commission has been exposed. Dang it.

  6. An independent review into Australia’s “robo-debt” system argues that Centrelink has been enforcing debts that have no legal basis.

    The review has sparked calls for the program to be suspended.

    The pigeons are (maybe) coming home to roost.
    Dutton’s department has been behaving illegally aswell.

    How much is still hidden from us?

  7. PeeBee @ #2647 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 5:59 pm

    P1, it doesn’t surprise me that effects of global warming is happening at a faster rate than we expected.

    All the affects of AGW, that I am aware of, are positive feedbacks. Positive feedbacks have a habit of speeding up the process until it runs riot and collapses.

    If there are negative feedbacks, please let me know so I won’t be so depressed about the whole thing.

    Well, there’s the oceans. The oceans actually absorb about half of the C02 we generate. Without this, we would already be cooked. And they will continue to do so once we stop generating C02, reducing atmospheric C02 in the process. That’s a good thing, right? 🙂

    Well … maybe not. As the oceans absorb all this C02, they acidify. This means their ability to absorb C02 declines over time, and the same process will also destroy many ocean ecosystems (e.g. coral reefs), killing much of our current marine life in the process 🙁

    Maybe just forget I mentioned it! 🙁

  8. Turnbully is on a hiding to nothing here.

    The AGL chief executive, Andy Vesey, says he plans to “fully execute” his vision of transforming the Liddell coal-fired power station into a renewables hub, saying it will bring cheaper, greener and more reliable energy, while providing quality, long-term jobs for decades.

    Vesey left little doubt about his desired future for the plant during a speech on energy policy on Friday, again defying renewed .

    He said transforming the site into an integrated renewables hub – comprising renewable generation, batteries, gas and demand response – would be vastly preferable to extending its life for several years.

    “This plan is more reliable, it is a better cost alternative, and provides lower impact on the environment,” he said. “As well as having the continued economic activity at that site, which the community depends on, and having jobs, high quality jobs, that will last for decades.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/06/agl-chief-determined-to-turn-liddell-into-renewables-hub

  9. Confessions

    David Rowe is brilliant isn’t he.

    BTW have just been told by a friend he has just been polled by Newspoll.

    Off for dinner now with visitors.

  10. Farmers in Western Australia say hunters are illegally increasing feral pig numbers by breeding and releasing the animals for recreational shooting.

    The practice was confirmed by research conducted by Murdoch University, which conducted a genetic analysis of wild pigs that found evidence of animals being deliberately relocated around the state.

    It’s a problem for farmers in the state’s southwest, who say they can lose up to half an acre of crops per night if feral pigs get into their paddocks.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/06/western-australian-hunters-accused-of-releasing-feral-pigs-for-sport

  11. Lizzie

    I have heard stories about the WA pig hunters for years.

    There are people in some south-west towns who would not have been out of place in the movie Deliverance.

  12. rossmcg

    It always impresses me how selfish people can be, in so many aspects of life, and that characteristic does not bode well for humanity in the long run.

  13. Its been fairly obvious for some time that the role of new gas plants will be as backup units for a relatively few hours per year. Not as wholesale replacements for coal fired power plants.

    The economics of the situation are that not only will coal fired plants be replaced with renewables with storage, but that their replacement will be brought forward.

  14. lizzie,

    I wonder if there’s anything that Vesey can do to hasten the construction of Liddel’s replacement, so that it becomes obvious for the news cameras?

  15. Paul KarpVerified account@Paul_Karp
    1h1 hour ago
    Greens accuse Labor of ‘gerrymander’ in draft seat redistribution, Antony Green says changes erase govt majority #auspol

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/06/greens-accuse-labor-of-gerrymander-in-draft-seat-redistribution?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    I don’t know what’s up with the Greens in recent years, but they have seriously lost the plot under Di Natale’s leadership. Now they’re seeing Labor gerrymandering in the recent AEC redistributions.

  16. Lizzie

    Indeed. There are so many who think rules don’t apply to them and they take pride in flouting them.

    In that part of the world many transgressions are related to attempts to protect the environment. Fishing bag limits and season restrictions are ignored, closed tracks in the forest are reopened by cutting the lock and destroying the gate, firewood is collected from protected areas.

    And the pigs.

    The various government departments have limited resources to enforce the rules.

    I am sure it is the same where you live.

  17. “Everyone complains that politicians are focused on polls – well I think the media is very focused on polls and various others are focused on polls, my job has got to be focused on delivering good policy, stronger economic growth, greater opportunities and so forth.”

    Um, Malcolm, you were the one who was so focused on the polls that you used them to topple an elected Liberal Prime Minister!

  18. Confessions @ #2669 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Paul KarpVerified account@Paul_Karp
    1h1 hour ago
    Greens accuse Labor of ‘gerrymander’ in draft seat redistribution, Antony Green says changes erase govt majority #auspol

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/06/greens-accuse-labor-of-gerrymander-in-draft-seat-redistribution?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    I don’t know what’s up with the Greens in recent years, but they have seriously lost the plot under Di Natale’s leadership. Now they’re seeing Labor gerrymandering in the recent AEC redistributions.

    It’s a wonder we haven’t seen Pegasus, Rex and Nicholas here banging that drum!

  19. Conservatives talk about “disruption” as if it were unreservedly a good thing. Well it has destroyed jobs and job security, old jobs having been automated and/or sent to low wage countries, old-style unionism pretty much wiped out and elites (the only ones that count, those with money) able vacuum wealth out of the system and hide it in tax havens as fast as its extracted or created. So far so good. Now it’s about to attack Coal. Panic time.

  20. rossmcg

    Yes.
    Think of the people who cut down trees just to improve their view of the sea.
    Then there are the ones who make money by capturing and smuggling endangered animals.

    Compared to these and similar, being locked up for not paying a fine is utterly ridiculous.

  21. I don’t have much faith in the quality of Australia’s executive class, but anyone who thought a guy who’s got as far as Vesey would be intimidated by a pissant like Trumble really is stupid. Vesey’s on millions. He will want to stay on millions for quite some time into the future. You don’t let a joke like Brian risk that. Vesey knows as well as the rest of us that this government is terminal. There’s no upside for him in helping Trumble and no downside in telling him to gagf. He and his team have made their plans long ago and nothing the joke currently occupying the Lodge says or does will have the slightest chance of varying those plans short of billions in government cash.

  22. Confessions @ #2670 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Paul KarpVerified account@Paul_Karp
    1h1 hour ago
    Greens accuse Labor of ‘gerrymander’ in draft seat redistribution, Antony Green says changes erase govt majority #auspol

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/06/greens-accuse-labor-of-gerrymander-in-draft-seat-redistribution?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Tweet

    I don’t know what’s up with the Greens in recent years, but they have seriously lost the plot under Di Natale’s leadership. Now they’re seeing Labor gerrymandering in the recent AEC redistributions.

    Imagine what Labor could do if they were actually in Government ?

    Just jerking the greens chain 🙂 AEC is Independent etc etc.

  23. C@t:

    I don’t know how Labor can orchestrate a gerrymander from opposition, but there you go.

    And I’m not surprised there aren’t any Greens around to defend their party after the disastrous week it’s had. Di Natale’s grab bag of uncosted announcements sunk under the weight of policy scrutiny by the media and experts over yesterday and today. And there’s the party’s now awkward policy stance on abandoning (or is it?) carbon pricing and market mechanisms in favour of heavier govt intervention.

    I’m of the view we need a party dedicated to holding major parties to account on the environment and addressing AGW. We do not have that party in today’s Greens party.

  24. Jackie Trad‏Verified account @jackietrad · 4h4 hours ago

    Pauline Hanson just called herself an Indigenous Australian. Stick a fork in me, I’m done… #qldpol #auspol

  25. lizzie @ #2664 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:36 pm

    rossmcg

    It always impresses me how selfish people can be, in so many aspects of life, and that characteristic does not bode well for humanity in the long run.

    lizzie,
    You might enjoy reading this article then, or not 🙂

    Every now and again, when I find myself buried in the latest blizzard of invariably disturbing news emanating from the Trump White House, I go back and remind myself of the core narrative. I read Plato’s Republic again, the prism through which I first raised the alarm about Donald Trump’s emergence. The prism is essentially how a late-stage democracy, dripping with decadence and corruption, with elites dedicated primarily to enriching themselves, and a people well past any kind of civic virtue, morphs so easily into tyranny.

    When Plato’s tyrant first comes to power — on a wave of populist hatred of the existing elites — there is a period of relative calm when he just gives away stuff: at first he promises much “in private and public, and grant[s] freedom from debts and distribute[s] land to the people and those around himself” (or, say, a trillion-dollar unfunded tax cut). He aims to please. But then, as he accustoms himself to power, and feels more comfortable, “he suspects certain men of having free thoughts and not putting up with his ruling … Some of those who helped in setting him up and are in power — the manliest among them — speak frankly to him and to one another, criticizing what is happening … Then the tyrant must gradually do away with all of them, if he’s going to rule, until he has left neither friend nor enemy of any worth whatsoever.”

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/america-takes-the-next-step-toward-tyranny.html

  26. lizzie @ #2682 Friday, April 6th, 2018 – 6:57 pm

    Jackie Trad‏Verified account @jackietrad · 4h4 hours ago

    Pauline Hanson just called herself an Indigenous Australian. Stick a fork in me, I’m done… #qldpol #auspol

    This is a headline at 9, won’t click on it , headline says all I need to see :

    Hanson ‘disgusted’ by Commonwealth Games focus on indigenous culture

    Claims criticisms aren’t racist

  27. Don’t know what the Greens are on about. Labor couldn’t do a gerrymander even if it wanted to. The boundaries are determined by the independent AEC, not Federal or (as in the USA) State Governments. And, of course, Labor is not in power Federally.

    Don’t the Greens have some real issues to talk about?

  28. Steve777

    I’d like to see Greens attacking some of the LNP policies and illegal actions. That would make more sense than ignorant accusations about electoral boundaries.

  29. ‘Fess,
    I get the feeling The Greens totally lost the plot after the Batman by-election loss. I reckon the swing to Labor in what they thought was their stronghold south of Bell St probably did their heads in. Now they don’t know what they stand for any more since their tried and true shibboleths of Adani and Asylum Seekers weren’t enough to swing it their way.

  30. Don’t the Greens have some real issues to talk about?

    RDN tried that on Wednesday and his announcements were roundly debunked as too costly and taking the piss out of voters, nicely summed up by this woman:

    If ever we needed evidence that the Greens don’t expect to be the party of government any time soon, Richard Di Natale’s latest suite of policies provides it. A grab-bag of un-costed ideas, the policy program outlined at the National Press Club on Wednesday would be impossible to implement in government.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/plan-for-universal-basic-income-ignores-the-value-of-work-20180405-p4z7vo.html

  31. Fess

    Michael Koziol
    ‏@michaelkoziol
    8h8 hours ago
    More
    Hanson: “I’ve got nothing against the Aboriginal people but I’m sick and tired of being made to feel I’m a second class citizen in my own country. I am Indigenous as far as I’m concerned – I was born here. This is my country as much as anyone else.”

  32. C@t:

    If Di Natale’s opening mea culpa at the NPC are any indication you can throw Tas regret in with Batman.

    I’d also add WA to that.

  33. I think the Greens have adopted yet another Liberal Policy – we’re the party born to rule. Liberal – Green, same, same.

    Tom.

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