Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor continues to dominate on voting intention, though few seem impressed by its stance on Adani.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46, up from 53-47 last time. Primary vote numbers will be with us later. Also featured are Essential’s monthly (I think) leadership ratings, and they find Malcolm Turnbull little changed at 41% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (on one), but Bill Shorten improving to 37% approval (up four) and 44% disapproval (down two). Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is 41-26, compared with 42-25 last time.

Other questions relate to Adani, on which 30% favour the Greens’ position, 26% favour the Coalition’s and 19% favour Labor’s, though it would be important to see the question wording on that one. Other findings related by The Guardian are that 42% support and 39% oppose company tax cuts; that regulating energy prices had 83% support, an “Accord-style partnership” 66% support and boosting Newstart 52% support; and that same-sex marriage is supported by 65% and opposed by 26%. Essential Research’s full report should be with us later in the day.

UPDATE: Full report here. Primary vote gains for the major parties at the expense of other/independent, with the Coalition up one to 36% and Labor up three to 38%, with the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 8%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1025.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,546 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  3. Vic:

    She comes in for special abuse by Trump, hence the photo of her with him in the Oval Office after he’d accused her of writing an article when she ‘didn’t know him, he’d never met her and she had no access’ (or wtte).

    Fox News love picking on her as well. Perhaps she’s just the US version of Katharine Murphy who seems to get abused by both Labor and Liberals alike when the reality of her reporting is somewhere in the middle.

  4. Labor will have the funds to lift pensions and other benefits while also offering income tax cuts at the low end of the scale….maybe by lifting the tax-free threshold. Labor will also have funds to put into labour market programs aimed at assisting the Long Term Unemployed and to put into regional economic projects…

  7. @Edj

    The Pensioners the real ones not the fake ones, use the Age Pension or the Disability Pension.

    They don’t use investments and whine and complain about their policies being taken away.

    Sounds like Labor hit the right spot.

  8. I really like this paragraph from Rick Wilson’s article:

    In fact, this White House has refused to even recognize Putin’s global special warfare operations against us exist, much less to take a stand against them. Trump continues to behave toward Putin like a preacher caught in a whorehouse; cowed, compliant, and terrified of his prospective blackmailer. Putin’s ongoing attempts to divide and influence the American political system aren’t speculation, imagination, or some Soros-driven conspiracy. His anti-American propaganda campaign is still in full swing, and the only upside is he’s not murdering people here quite yet, though if I were Paul Manafort I’d cut the deal and get into witness protection now.

    I have long suspected that Paul Manafort is liable to eat some food that doesn’t agree with him, or drink some particularly bitter coffee, and suffer an untimely death as a result, if he doesn’t cut a deal and go into Witness Protection. He knows too much.

  9. Fess

    She has had very easy access to Trump over the years. Apparently she is called the Trump whisperer. As I said, I think there is a family or friendship connection going back. If there is supposed to be some type of spat between them I wouldn’t be surprised if it is contrived.
    That’s what my gut tells me anyway. Lol!

  10. Briefly,

    No doubt those will all be worthwhile reforms. But the NBN is the scene stealer.

    The country is crying out for rectification of this valuable piece of infrastructure.

  13. Saccone, for his part, addressed supporters late Tuesday night at his event in Elizabeth Township, Pennsylvania. “We’re not giving up, but I want to come out and thank you,” he said, promising them that his campaign was “going to be working late into the night” and into Wednesday.

    “We’re going to keep fighting,” he added. “Don’t give up, and we’ll keep it up. We’re gonna win it!”

    Sounds like Judge Roy Moore, before he was never heard from again. 🙂

  19. Confessions @ #1562 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 10:57 pm

    C@t:

    Rick Wilson does have a way with words, doesn’t he?

    But he also makes some very serious points with it. I agree with him that Putin would not think twice about extending his viperous reach into America. Maybe even using the untimely death of two Putin critics in recent days in the UK to show just how easy it is, and to let it be a lesson to those in the US that know things that he wouldn’t want to get out into the public arena, that it is pretty easy for him to arrange. The man is an evil genius!

  20. C@t

    Trump hasn’t been concerned about what occurred in the UK either. But of course Rex Tillerson says something and he is fired.
    Meanwhile PM May is looking at expelling Russian diplomats from the UK.

  22. The Russian mischief in the UK and the US mischief in the international trading system should be a warning to the Brexiteers. The UK is far better off inside the European architecture that not.

  25. C@t:

    Personally I think you hit the nail on the head yesterday or day before when you urged the UK to get back with the EU.

    I’ve read a lot of commentary on Brexit over the last few months to a year and it’s commonly accepted Putin influenced the Brexit campaign, presumably to isolate the UK. The country needs to find a way back into the fold.

  26. If pensioners have enough shares to get a cash rebate, they can sell the bloody things and eat MyDog instead of PAL.

    FMD! These people are being PAID taxpayer dollars for owning shares and not paying any tax.

    The people on the minimum wage who just lost their penalty rates would love to be in such a position.

    I’m a later boomer – but these early boomers are rorting the system and then whinge when their rorts are to be cut off.

    The can liquidate their ‘assets’ if they want stuff to live off if it get to a point where they have to live like most other age pensioners i.e. barely scraping through.

  27. Victoria @ #1569 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 11:01 pm

    C@t

    Trump hasn’t been concerned about what occurred in the UK either. But of course Rex Tillerson says something and he is fired.
    Meanwhile PM May is looking at expelling Russian diplomats from the UK.

    That sort of thing won’t have any effect on Putin. He’ll just do tit for tat with British diplomats in Russia. Plus he has factored in that Britain is weakened now by Brexit, which some say he helped organise, in his ongoing plan to weaken and break up the EU.

    No, for Britain to have any real effect on Putin, May has to kick the Russian oligarchs out of Britain. Plus anyone else that they identify as Putin’s eyes and ears in the UK.

    Cancel the Broadcast Licence for RT.

    And refer Putin to the ICC.

    That might get him to sit up and take notice!

  29. Desert Qlder says:
    Wednesday, March 14, 2018 at 10:55 pm
    Briefly,

    No doubt those will all be worthwhile reforms. But the NBN is the scene stealer.

    The country is crying out for rectification of this valuable piece of infrastructure.

    Yes..the NBN is a shambles. Trouble is that it’s tech-talk. No-one will believe it’s fixable. There’s very low confidence in public infrastructure commitments. It will be a miracle if Shorten can turn it into a significant winner….though it will certainly lose the Libs votes (if that makes sense).

    The NBN suffers from all the same marketing obstacles as every other service. It’s invisible. It’s essentially intangible. It may be hopeless, but the “alternative” is also a hypothetical. It is a hard sell….

  30. Before I go

    John Schindler Retweeted
    Sky News Breaking
    Sky News Breaking
    @SkyNewsBreak
    Sky Sources: Prime Minister Theresa May is to announce the expulsion of Russian diplomats as part of a range of measures in response to the nerve agent attack on former spy
    10:45 PM · Mar 14, 2018
    118 Retweets
    81 Likes
    Sky News Breaking
    Sky News Breaking
    @SkyNewsBreak
    ·
    12m
    Replying to @SkyNewsBreak
    Foreign Office says the UN Security Council will meet today to discuss the investigation into the nerve agent attack on former spy Sergei Skripal

  33. jenauthor,
    Labor need to simplify their attack lines.

    They just have to repeat that they are cancelling an unsustainable Budget measure that gives Income Tax refunds in cash to people that pay no Income Tax!

  35. Sky Sources: Prime Minister Theresa May is to announce the expulsion of Russian diplomats as part of a range of measures in response to the nerve agent attack on former spy

    The very least she can do.

  36. Dan Gulberry @ #1581 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 11:12 pm

    briefly @ #1572 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    The UK is far better off inside the European architecture that not.

    Keep an eye on what happens in Italy next. I’m seeing rumours of a referendum for Itexit later this year.

    I’m old enough to remember Italy in the 1960s. So broke they couldn’t feed their people and homeless numbers went through the roof. The place fell into disrepair.

    Italy can’t afford to leave the EU.

  37. bemused @ #1567 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 6:59 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #1552 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 10:49 pm

    Steve777 @ #1550 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 6:45 pm

    Yes, if Hinch’s accident means he’s out of the Senate for a while, that could affect the fate of some of the zombie Legislation.

    In the case of illness and/or injury any absence should be paired, so it should make no difference.

    Who do you pair an Independent with?

    My understanding, anyone who was going to vote the other way.


  39. PeeBee (Block)
    Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 9:36 pm
    Comment #1477

    Psyclaw, the proposed ALP policy on tax credits is discriminatory.

    One group get a benefit of the credit and the other group doesn’t.

    This is unfair.

    It’s pretty simple really; someone has to pay the company tax. If you get a refund of the company tax instead of the tax you would have paid on the money you got; no-one is paying the company tax. I’m sure all would like to pay no tax.

  40. Confessions @ #1584 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 11:14 pm

    Sky Sources: Prime Minister Theresa May is to announce the expulsion of Russian diplomats as part of a range of measures in response to the nerve agent attack on former spy

    The very least she can do.

    It’s not enough. Putin will laugh at it. Then just carry on regardless. After he has happily chucked out 3 times as many UK diplomats from Russia.

  41. equal or not? @ #1587 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 11:16 pm

    The UK Tories see Russian oligarchs as part of their constituency.

    The get £820,ooo from them!!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/03/11/tories-will-not-return-820000-russia-linked-donations-philip/

    If May had any integrity, she would throw this money back in their faces and expel the oligarchs. Putin knows he can buy democratic governments with donations. So does Xiu. 🙂

  42. It’s not enough. Putin will laugh at it. Then just carry on regardless. After he has happily chucked out 3 times as many UK diplomats from Russia.

    Quite so.

  50. Dan Gulberry @ #1580 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 10:12 pm

    briefly @ #1572 Wednesday, March 14th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    The UK is far better off inside the European architecture that not.

    Keep an eye on what happens in Italy next. I’m seeing rumours of a referendum for Itexit later this year.

    Saw a graph the other day of EU expenditure. i may have linked it. However it was fairly explicit.

    In terms of the EU Germany is the largest donor by a long way but UK is next. Without the UK, Germany, France and Italy will have to pay a LOT more to support the newcomers, especially Poland. It just does not seem like a long term option, especially for Italy. I see Poland being encouraged to leave – just too expensive to support. I guess the support models could change, but either way when UK leaves the EU wil have to take a haircut.

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