First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.
The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.
Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.
Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.
The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.
Phoenix/fess
Nance made these comments recently and he was serious. He made them based on observing Carter Page etc. As I said, I don’t value much of what Nance says so maybe I am wrong about Page.
Time will tell I guess. Lol!!
grimace @ #3247 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 12:04 pm
But wouldn’t he have lost money as he dumped the Steel stocks BEFORE they went up?
P1
Yes they are an environmental party. We just don’t get media telling us about it much except for attacking Mr Shorten over Adani.
Remember the media wants to destroy the Greens. Their method is first to run the narrative that the Greens moving to be more than a one issue party means that they have abandoned the environment.
This is not true. The Greens always had other issues its just that the Greens are fighting the one issue party look at the moment under Di Natale.
The problem for the Greens is Di Natale is a weak leader and the party is fracturing aa a result.
If the Greens replace Di Natale with a strong leader then it will regain its force.
Di Natale reminds me of Cassie O’Connor of Tasmania.
A weak leader taking over after Christine Milne left. As you can see the Tasmanian Greens have suffered under her leadership. They did well when Nick McKim was their face.
Its happening Federally and unless they replace Di Natale the Greens will fall just like they did in Tasmania in the periods when Cassie O’Connor has been leader.
sprocket_
It looks like Ged Kearney has a grip on Batman now.
But it will still be tight.
Victoria @ #3251 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 12:07 pm
What about Roger Stone? I never see him mentioned in Dispatches?
“It looks like Ged Kearney has a grip on Batman now.”
Hope so. That will be a good one for the ALP to win, not only for numbers but because Ged will be a good MP think i.
CT
I am starting to think Labor will retain Batman.
As i was just saying about Di Natale being a weak leader. I don’t think either Bob Brown or Christine Milne would have had stayed out of the media in defending the local candidate. They would have been there every day countering the allegations answering media questions.
Good or bad they would have been visible.
CTar1 @ #3254 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 12:09 pm
I bet every Nurse within cooee of Batman is volunteering to campaign for Ged too!
It’s hard to see it emerging from the gas industry either. LOL
C@t
Roger stone is a show pony. Difficult to assess whether he is nefarious or not.
Didn’t Joyce mention the child in his resignation speech, “Very busy, book to write, new baby on the way”? etc…
It’s quite remarkable how everything can go to shit for an individual so rapidly.
What a bastard of a thing to do to a child.
Joyce deserves everything he has coming too him.
Hopefully he ends up with his parliamentary pension revoked, on the dole, arse out of his pants, a massive Centrelink robodebt he can never afford to pay back, his $280 a fortnight payment “income managed”, living under a tree, drinking cheap sherry out of a cardboard box, in a humpy made out of the discarded cardboard boxes he has been drinking the cheap booze from, while the two families he has treated so disgracefully are safe and secure in the properties his former ministerial salary paid for.
Oh, and gonorrhea…
Di Natale has all the leadership ooomph we might expect from a trottoir hipster.
C@tmomma @ #3252 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:08 am
When it comes to insider trading whether your loose or gain money doesn’t matter. The crime is that you used inside information as a part of your decision to make a trade.
guytaur @ #3253 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 12:08 pm
Don’t be absurd. We are in the middle of the biggest extinction event the planet has ever seen, and people are already dying worldwide from the effects of global warming. What kind of “environmental” party would say something as stupid as this …
“There hasn’t been a really strong environmental issue, apart from salmon farms, to fight on. We knew that” – Andrea Dawkins.
Simon Katich: “He has sunk to new depths. Less said about this the better. It is a car crash with no survivors. Look away.”
Yep, I agree 100%. I cannot think of any way in which a reasonable person could attempt to justify what he has done. If he had decided to accept the child as his own, then that should have been that: nothing more to be said. Instead, he has now placed on the public record the suggestion that he suspects that the child is not actually his own. Not only has he thereby publicly shamed his new partner, he has also made sure that this will be something that the child, as it grows up, is most likely to find out about in the playground through the taunts of other children.
I think that, in the minds of most people, even many strong Nationals supporters, he has now justified Turnbull’s attack and efforts to push him out.
This seems esp insensitive coming AFTER a vote to ban assault weapons failed.
BW
Yes I have to agree. When Adani comes up its Bill Shorten that is in the media spotlight answering for Federal Labor with all the authority he brings as leader.
Di Natale. Not visible day after day. Even Turnbull as weak as he is does more not less visibility.
To get your message out you first have to be in front of the people. Press conferences are still the most effective tool to do this.
I would have thought any US steel stock was a buy. It is counter intuitive that he was insider trading and THAT stupid.
Unless Trump and his crony capitalists can’t even get insider trading right…
C@tmomma says: Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 12:08 pm
Trump confidant dumped millions in steel-related stock last week
But wouldn’t he have lost money as he dumped the Steel stocks BEFORE they went up?
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C@tmomma – I found this little piece that explains it better to me :
A Feb. 22 SEC filing shows Icahn sold off his $31.3 million stake in the Manitowoc Company, which is a leading global manufacturer of cranes for heavy construction based in Manitowoc, Wis., according to the company’s website. Since Trump’s announcement Thursday, Manitowoc’s stock has plummeted to about $26. Icahn — who has had majority interest in several companies including Motorola, Xerox, Family Dollar and Pep Boys — had sold his shares for about $32 to $34 each, according to the SEC disclosure, which was first reported by Think Progress.
So he made on the dumping ??????? – or got out before stock value plummeted ???? ( sorry not a sharemarket person or expert )
Trump’s tariff announcement “shocked” everybody but his close buddy
It’s also not as if everybody saw this coming. As the Washington Examiner pointed out, Senate Republicans were “highly critical” of and “blindsided” by Trump’s plan to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum. It also shocked the markets.
So either one of Trump’s close friends is really good at predicting what seemingly nobody expected, or he had advanced knowledge of it. If it’s the latter, then Trump could soon find himself at the center of an insider trading scandal.
https://www.politicususa.com/2018/03/03/trump-adviser-steel-stocks.html
I always regarded Roger Stone as just another bumbling Trump enabler. Racist, sexist, revolting, and a total pig but not nefarious.
Trog Sorrenson @ #3259 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 12:14 pm
How are your commissions coming along, Trog? Meeting your KPI’s?
Why would voters in Batman vote for the Greens as they will never ever form a government in their own right?I think most Greens lean towards Labors policies so why waste their vote by just splitting the Labor vote.Just vote Labor.They will be the only party that can get things done federally.I think Labor will hold Batman also.
p1
That Dawkins comment is classic Greens approach to the environment: environmental issues are single issues, episodic issues, and populist issues and are primarily a vehicle for political gains.
The Massive National Campaign to Change a Date is a classic of its kind. Rather than address the systemic deeply rooted and often intractable issues facing Indigenous people, Di Natale and the Greens Party grabbed at symbolic populism.
C@tmomma:
Very perceptive. Apparently there are 1,700 registered anmf members in Batman and they are being mobilised. To spread the word.
Rottoturbine: Luke, I might be your father. It’s a bit of a grey area. I mean, they never even asked if it was Vader’s bundle. pic.twitter.com/Ezp8uD4un3
steve davis
Quite a high number of Greens genuinely believe that they will eventually form government. They HAVE to think this because it can be their only justification for wrecking the joint in the interim.
BW
What you are pointing out is weak leadership.
No National narrative. Thus the Greens are all over the place. They are all doing local issues. Well and good when you are the only candidate. Not for the national party.
Did not happen under Brown or Milne.
Yep. Greens ‘do’ identity politics and single ‘issues’. Not for them the arduous work of boring the hard boards of lasting reform. That’s where Labor comes in – at least until the left ‘joiners’ take over the party and we go full Corbyn for a generation. It really will be ‘springtime for Hilter and Germany’ then for the likes of Dutton and whoever follows. If Bill doesn’t win the next federal election watching identity politics dismantle the once great engine of reform will be like watching a train wreck on slow motion.
Good point, PhoenixRED. How else could Carl Icahn have found out about the Steel and Aluminium Tariffs, except by talking to his good buddy, DJT. However, I also can’t see how they could both be so stupid as to do it.
Andrew_Earlwood,
I think it’s safe to say that Ged Kearney is sensible enough to not go off the Left of Labor deep end.
C@tmomma says: Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 12:33 pm
Good point, PhoenixRED. How else could Carl Icahn have found out about the Steel and Aluminium Tariffs, except by talking to his good buddy, DJT. However, I also can’t see how they could both be so stupid as to do it.
**************************************************
Well the Donald Trump Crime Family seem to say and do stupid things every day ….. so nothing surprises me anymore from them ( except if Trump suddenly quits )
150 MPs.One green MP.Speaks for itself really.
imacca
If Kearney can fight across the line this time she’ll be very difficult to dislodge next time as well.
She has the connections to make sure the electorate is ‘fed’ a bit and using her experience in the union movement will understand how to make sure she knows what the ‘feeling’ in the electorate is continuously rather than by finding out when her term is nearly over.
What I took from that Joyce story was the comment that their relationship was ‘sporadic in nature’.
That yelled loudly to me that he was accusing her of being a free sexual spirit (or as some might say derogatorily – “she sleeps around”).
So in the space of a week, those on the right have shat on women more than once, with many doubling down on the inferences in order to try and save their own faces.
Appalling mob this govt.
ErykBagshaw: The heir to Barnaby Joyce’s portfolio has declared he has nothing against renewables, believes climate change is fundamentally reshaping agriculture, and called on city dwellers to wake up to the economic lifting being done by Australia’s farmers smh.com.au/politics/feder… via @smh
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-barnaby-joyce-s-pro-renewables-successor-david-littleproud-20180302-p4z2ga.html
Firms that buy steel in the US will be hurt. Firms that make it will benefit. Any producer of steel-intense products will lose, as will consumers.
adampulford: How bloody inspiring is the #StopAdani movement?! Bringing together coalitions of people right across the country to fight dirty, destructive coal and protect our world. Here’s their float in #MardiGras40 — such an awesome, unexpected sight last night! ️ @stopadani pic.twitter.com/5cIVGlgSwk
I watched the SBS live stream last night while watching the Tasmanian coverage with sound down (avoided hearing Abetz). Bill Shorten got cheers. Malcolm Turnbull got some boos.
@10.32
“Big F. Deal!”
Nowadays I am mainly a lurker. And by and large I try to restrain myself.
But this hypocrisy writ large today from PB’s biggest bully has rendered me unable to with hold comment. (I did restrain myself yesterday when she unprovoked gave to someone, calling her a bitch.)
This is the person who over the years has told PB about so many aspects of her life, and of her kids’ lives, in graphic details at times, and repetitively. Often it has had a “poor me” theme, but not always. She has often told us of family events, what they are having for a meal, health matters, employment matters etc etc.
And now she reacts in aggro fashion about Pegasus repeating that Bemused is absenting himself from PB to go out with his grandaughters.
I recall about 18 months ago, when I apologised for a late reply to someone, and said that I’d been out at a birthday party. I got a similar ad hominem response from No 1 bully, from the sideline.
When called to task attack is her first response, but then she has an undoubted ability to minimise, rationalise, self eulogise, caramelise, glamorise, and fictionalise the insults she has sprayed around, but never ever to apologise.
Today will be no different.
Ohhhh,the lulz….to oppose the green Tories is to invite comparisons to Stalin.
How comic.
The green Tories need to accept the consequences of their actions. They keep the blue/yellow/orange Tories in office.
I’ve had a good look at the new Delux BludgerTrack and really appreciate the effort that William has put in.
The Liberals are staring down the barrel of a catastrophe in WA, with all 5 targeted seats looking like comfortable Labor wins, with Labor on track for a 56-44 TPP in WA and holding 11 of 16 seats. Based on these numbers, another 1% swing takes out three more otherwise safe Liberal seats.
I’ve got two predictions:
(1) The Federal L/NP will cut WA loose to save the furniture in Queensland
(2) Julie Bishop will retire, with Porter cutting and running from Pearce to Curtin.
Cher on Turnbull
cher: @FionaGillen2013 @_Mattie_Love @TurnbullMalcolm School me….. I have a little fight Left. I told him how I detest trump….trump values NOTHING & NO ONE‼️
Can your prime minister LEARN Your Value⁉️Can He Minister To you⁉️If He Cant,you owe him No Allegiance,If He Can Be turned around,TRY
Liked this line from Andrew Elder.
.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-jewels-the-designer-and-liberal-party-donor-julie-bishop-facing-new-questions-over-disclosures-20180301-p4z2dp.html
poroti @ #3292 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 10:05 am
The L/NP have spent the best part of 5 years and tens of millions of dollars on Kill Bill and it hasn’t worked. You’d think they’d get the idea by now.
Guytaur, yeah yeah, yeah….good for Cher. She will oppose Turnbull. The green Tories….well not so much. They will run decoys for Turnbull and try to keep him in office.
You can’t split the vote in a full preferential system.
And it’s especially difficult for a Greens candidate to split the Labor vote in a contest where the Greens and Labor are the only parties in with a chance.
Sorry. That Cher post came after this
Interesting thoughts here this morning re Ged Kearney and her chances in Batman.
Her Union background and especially her background in nursing will be of great help to her and labor.
The Greens must think so as well as they are now campaigning to lift the Medicare freeze and have actually promised $500 million to get this done.
How the greens, with no chance of forming government this side of the year 5000, can actually ” promise” to lift the freeze and how they can promise any monies to do so is breathtaking in its la la land pixie dust level of bullshit.
Get must be firing a few direct hits.
Cheers
Just read Murphy’s Guardian piece on Shorten whilst waiting on slow coffee service (my excuse for clicking on it, lol).
Let’s start with the headline:
“Bill Shorten faced a torrid week after being mowed down by Geoff Cousin…”
Really? No problems then over continued Beetrooter blow back for the Government. No Michaela moments? No Dutton doubling down issues? Corporate Tax cuts apparently not sinking faster in public estimation than last weekend prawn shells? Wow.
Reading through the fine print and getting to the bee in Cousin’s bonnet. Apparently Shorten is to be condemned for conducting his own field expedition, arriving at a framework position, articulating the difficulties he will face in shifting Labor internally and then failing to go broken arrow on this issue according to Cousins timetable. …
Frack him. As much as I hate the Adani project, for a looong moment I was left wishing that labor would build the damn thing just to spite that duplicitous c@*t Cousins. He can pretty forget being brought inside the tent in any future Labor Government.
Luckily for the environment Bill is not a spiteful prick like me. He ‘walks both sides of the street’ to obtain the best possible solution to an issue that can be supported by a clear majority. That’s his MO. It is exactly the MO that will make for a great long term PM in a Labor Government that will make real reforms that endure.
Has Cher moved to Australia?