First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.
The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.
Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.
Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.
The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.
guytaur says:
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:17 am
Yet Labor only fell one seat short of winning.
This is false. Labor may win 10 or 11 seats. In no electorate did they win 3 out the possible 5. They got well beaten by the G+B Tories, who will come home with 14 or 15 seats. That is what to expect when you’re outpolled 2:1.
Coles is in no position to highlight Woolworths problems with poker machines. It owns plenty itself. though parent Wesfarmers has doubts about the business.
This was pointed to yesterday
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/wesfarmers-close-to-calling-time-on-pokies-amid-woolies-pub-scandal-20180302-p4z2k2.html
Maybe being ignorant of facts is a Greens thing
Rex Douglas Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 9:15 am Comment #3087
How unexpected from you Rex … another idea to disrupt Labor leadership.
Fess racing in WA is BIG
Briefly
Rant and rave. The truth is multi party politics is here to stay. Calling another progressive party Tory won’t change that reality
Confessions
Lotto is WA’s “vice” . However …………..
.
“Not a pokie in sight
……………….There’s one last reason why the West Australian public accepts pokie deprivation, says Carter. …….The state’s biggest form of gambling, buying a lottery ticket,……….. Lotterywest, an organisation unique to WA, controls all lotteries, collects the profits and hands them out to thousands of charities and community groups; last year, it gave away $110 million to 1148 groups, from disabled riding to medical research.”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/life/weekend-australian-magazine/not-a-pokie-in-sight/news-story/241174bdf95f14780427f79377492106?sv=d3e287bd88aa90790d12c0100e7cde0c
Meher Baba, thanks for your Tasmanian perspective on the election.
I understand that there is a push to revive harvesting of 800 to 1200 year old trees in the Tarkine Wilderness areas. I assume the election result will enable the harvesting, even though tourism operations might reap greater revenues that would be spread further through the community
guytaur says:
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:19 am
briefly
Thanks for proving you are unhinged about Greens progressive policies.
Rant and rave all you like. The Greens are a progressive party not a Tory party.
Deny it if you like. The Gs are drawn from the bourgeoisie. They are middle class radicals, and like their forerunners of the past are ill-disposed to Labor. Their best hopes lie in defeating Labor. So they run anti-Labor campaigns as surely as they have breakfast every day. In this, they are as opposed to Labor as Barnaby Joyce, Julie Bishop, Michaelia Cash, Tony Abbott or Malcolm Turnbull. You only have to listen to them to know this.
They pretend to be progressive. But when the chips are down – when they vote their existential interest – they vote with the Blue Tories.
Jen:
I wouldn’t know as I’m not horsey. But are we any bigger gamblers on racing than other states?
Trump confidant dumped millions in steel-related stock last week
Carl Icahn has impeccable timing.
Billionaire investor and longtime Trump confidant Carl Icahn dumped $31.3 million of stock in a company heavily dependent on steel last week, just days before Trump announced plans to impose steep tariffs on steel imports.
https://thinkprogress.org/trump-ichan-steel-imports-cf7deb8beaf0/
This table might help in the gambling discussion —
http://www.qgso.qld.gov.au/products/tables/gambling-expenditure-nominal-value-state/index.php
Yeah Ross, try reading the article that you posted. It says that Wesfarmers, which owns Coles, wants to get out of the poker machine business because of the ethical problems involved. This would create a clear point of difference with Woolworths, which has more poker machines than Coles and is increasing its investment in that destructive industry.
poroti:
I knew we spent big on lotto, but buying lottery tickets doesn’t have the same addicting qualities as sitting on a poker machine all night.
‘fess
Yep.
The discontent ex-Army MP Corporal well and truly outsmarted herself.
Wave her goodbye!
Stolen from facebook. No sources given for the stats, but the facebooker is usually fairly reliable —
‘The use of pokies has actually been declining. The decline is largely driven by the fall in low income earners being able to visit their local pub and club. Their lower and insecure incomes have changed their social habits and as a result they go out less and spend on less on activities they enjoy, like pokies.
That said. Sports betting is ballooning. Up 30% and rapidly climbing. Who are they?
They were much more likely to have a higher-than-average income (55%) than lower-than-average income (28%).
Furthermore, compared to the Australian adult population, a substantially higher proportion of regular sports bettors were single (56% of sports bettors vs 45% of Australian adults), born in Australia (82% vs 70%).
So why are the political class so fixated on pokies? Well most of their own ilk don’t play them and find them unsightly. They don’t like seeing them at their local pubs etc. They continue to harbour strong views that people who play them are simple minded, sitting on front of a machine for hours etc.
But the middle class do bet on sports, in a very big way. It won’t be hard to find anti pokie middle class voters spending a day at the races, sinking down very expensive carbonated french wine, whilst standing under a corporate tent. They love using the associated apps. Hey, using apps already puts you on a higher social status then those silly poor folk sitting in front of those machines.
Although gambling losses have and still do cause problems for those suffering addiction the stats suggest there are much larger problems now in sports betting and online betting.’
guytaur says:
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:25 am
Briefly
Rant and rave. The truth is multi party politics is here to stay. Calling another progressive party Tory won’t change that reality
…basic facts are that voters know the Gs are an anti-Labor outfit…which is why their vote has ceased growing and is stagnating….voters are not stupid…go into a working class suburb, knock on a few doors and ask the residents what they think of the Greens…what they think of the party that routinely attacks their own political voice….
‘Madness’: New report details White House’s ‘darkest days’ as Trump rails about cable news and staff defections
The mood inside the White House is bad and getting worse, according to a new report from the Washington Post.
The report is sourced to 22 “officials, friends and advisers to the president and other administration allies.”
“Trump is now a president in transition, at times angry and increasingly isolated,” the story reads. “He fumes in private that just about every time he looks up at a television screen, the cable news headlines are trumpeting yet another scandal. He voices frustration that son-in-law Jared Kushner has few on-air defenders. He revives old grudges. And he confides to friends that he is uncertain about whom to trust”
“Trump’s fundamentally distorted personality — which at its core is chaotic, volatile and transgressive — when combined with the powers of the presidency had to end poorly,”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/03/madness-new-report-details-white-houses-darkest-days-trump-rails-cable-news-staff-defection/
Confessions
Exactly and the $s really do go back into the community.
MB
Thanks for your post. Thats how I know the Greens is Tasmania too. In exactly the same way the Greens under Milne Federally was doing sensible economic change due to climate policy. So acceptable Labor and Conservative Independents embraced it. (Not being there I am probably over selling the Greens position here)
**Barnarby really just threw Vicki Campion under the bus to save his own hide? What a piece of shit.**
**You sound surprised!!!! **
He has sunk to new depths. Less said about this the better. It is a car crash with no survivors. Look away.
Yeah Nicholas, Wesfarmers say they want to get out of pubs and pokies but they haven’t announced a plan to do it. Until then they can’t take the high moral ground as you suggest.
Personally, I’ll believe it when it happens. Money talks.
briefly
Not a total fan of the current Greens management, but this is existential crap.
PhoenixRed
Wanna have a laugh. I just saw an excerpt online from a radio program that Malcolm Nance was a guest. I don’t really value his opinion greatly. Anyhoo, I realise I must definitely be on the wrong track. Cos he too thinks Carter Page is most likely a double agent!!! 😀
Simon Katich
We should look away with respect to Barnaby’s disgraceful conduct, but only long enough for Labor to put pressure to bear and ask the important questions relating to govt expenditure by him and conflicts of interest.
Anyone that thinks Labor Federally is going to make pokies the policy to run on front and centre has not been paying attention.
Labor is campaigning on equality and how the LNP are for the Big end of town.
Wage stagnation and tax giveaways to multinational corporations are going to be the main Federal campaign. With Medicare Education Social Security Indigenous people being background issues. Labor might talk about regulating gambling excess but won’t go big on it and will go back to the basic issues.
eg. Renewables bringing manufacturing back to Australia. One area they will combat the best social policy is a job rhetoric of the LNP.
Lambe declares she wants ‘her’ senate seat back at the next half senate election.
Another arrogant ex-politician suffering relevance deprivation.
And she will need 16% of the vote. Unlikely.
Trog Sorrenson says:
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:40 am
briefly
They pretend to be progressive. But when the chips are down – when they vote their existential interest – they vote with the Blue Tories.
Not a total fan of the current Greens management, but this is existential crap.
The Gs are Tories….thru and thru. Their business plan requires them to set out to defeat Labor. They apply the plan. The result, after 25 years, is the Labor plurality has been hammered. This is the result of G politics. It is not accidental. The corollary is the Blue Tories win more easily. Labor is surround by Tories in dress ups….in blue, yellow, green and orange….yet we will defeat you all.
guytaur @ #3219 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 11:37 am
The present day Greens are nothing like the party of Bob Browne & Christine Milne. They have lost their guiding principles, and voters can see that.
In the coming years, Australia is going to need a real environmental movement – far more than it has ever needed one before. It’s currently hard to see how where such a movement will come from, but it is hard to see it emerging from the Greens.
‘Andre Welder’ has a look at Michaelia Cash.
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/mcfailure.html
Indeed Poroti – that is the other side of ‘legal’ gambling. Govts get to use some of the money that would be invested (whether or not it is legal) for community expenses like schools & hospitals.
I mentioned Hong Kong earlier – the ENTIRE tax take on horse racing there goes to the states health budget (I think it is only health) – billions of $$$$ for hospitals etc. The state recognised the human need to gamble and decided to make it work for all residents. It is, in a way, a form of voluntary taxation … with occasional benefits for the lucky
guytaur says:
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:43 am
Anyone that thinks Labor Federally is going to make pokies the policy to run on front and centre has not been paying attention.
Be sure of one further thing. The green Tories will try to make sure that Labor loses.
Shook hands wth Bill Shorten at the Mardi Gras last night!
#justsayin’onPB
Re Guytaur on Briefly:
“Rant and rave. The truth is multi party politics is here to stay. Calling another progressive party Tory won’t change that reality”
I have a lot of sympathy for Briefly’s take on The Greens. They ARE a perverse combination of bourgeoise and old school coms. But in their own way they are trying to be progressive even if they don’t have a clue.
The best thing for Labor to do is not raise to their bait. Certainly not imitate them. Let them sit on our ‘left flank’ why we focus on the main game – improving the lives of people across society, especially the bottom three socioeconomic quarters who really benefit from government services. I am not oblivious to the fact that most Greens suppport comes from folk who don’t need government services – falling comfortably within the top quarter, but ultimately labor – as the true vessel of progress must make common cause with many diverse groups, even with The Greens. Just on our terms, not theirs. So while it’s fun to indulge in some online Green baiting, remember this – we might need them occasionally.
jenauthor says:
Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:48 am
Indeed Poroti – that is the other side of ‘legal’ gambling. Goats get to use some of the money that would be invested (whether or not it is legal) for community expenses like schools & hospitals.
I mentioned Hong Kong earlier – the ENTIRE tax take on horse racing there goes to the states health budget (I think it is only health) – billions of $$$$ for hospitals etc. The state recognised the human need to gamble and decided to make it work for all residents. It is, in a way, a form of voluntary taxation … with occasional benefits for the lucky
Moreover, the HK authorities would not allow any private sector competition to drain income away from the regulated sector.
Tax gambling….the bigger the bet, the higher the tax….
Victoria says: Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 11:41 am
PhoenixRed
Wanna have a laugh. I just saw an excerpt online from a radio program that Malcolm Nance was a guest. I don’t really value his opinion greatly. Anyhoo, I realise I must definitely be on the wrong track. Cos he too thinks Carter Page is most likely a double agent!!!
*********************************************************
I will be interested – when Robert Mueller goes total shakedown on Trump and Associates – what comes out on Carter Page – There’s plenty of evidence that the former Trump campaign adviser, for all his quirks and stupidity looks, was on suspiciously good terms with Russia. Whatever Page’s motives were for helping Russian intelligence—greed, naivety, stupidity—his actions surely justified the FBI’s interest in him. There was a simple way of avoiding U.S. surveillance and a FISA court warrant. It could be summed up like this: Don’t hang out with Russian spies. James Bond or Maxwell Smart ?????
P1
I have seen comments that the Greens are communist or they are tories.
It can’t be both.
Rhiannon is a problem for the Greens. She has a power base in NSW that needs to be addressed. I do see her losing the Greens votes.
I see Di Natalie as a weak leader. For two reasons. He has not kept Rhiannon in line like Brown and Milne managed to do. He timed his attack to unseat her when Rhiannon was defending public school funding. Making it look like the Greens were for private schools.
I don’t see the Greens doing well until Di Natale is out of the leadership.
However most of their polices have not changed and I do see Adam Bandt. Nick McKim doing a better job than Di Natale.
I don’t think the others are leadership material. I rule out Senator Hanson Young as I think her time has passed her by.
billie: “I understand that there is a push to revive harvesting of 800 to 1200 year old trees in the Tarkine Wilderness areas. I assume the election result will enable the harvesting, even though tourism operations might reap greater revenues that would be spread further through the community”
The forestry debate has now reached an interesting stage. There remain diehards on both the Labor and Liberal sides of politics: Abetz and the state director Sam McQuestin on the Lib side, and some of the more union-aligned people on the Labor side. However, it’s becoming increasingly obvious to most of the leaders of the Tasmanian business community – particularly those in Hobart – that any sort of forestry policy that would result in a return to TV images of screaming protesters chained to trees being beamed around the world would quickly put a dampener on the current economic boom. And the large, Launceston-based forestry vested interest (in its most recent incarnation, Gunns Pty Ltd) that used to drive a long of Liberal thinking on the issue has ceased to exist.
Will Hodgman’s roots are in the Hobart-based part of the Tasmanian business establishment which has always been lukewarm towards forestry and is now showing signs of becoming quite hostile towards it. He has played a clever game over the past four years: he “tore up” the forestry agreement and has removed other barriers to old-growth logging, including in the Tarkine. But he has held pretty strongly to the line that forestry must pay for itself, and has provided the industry with virtually no financial help either directly, or indirectly through Forestry Tasmania. So, while there can be talk of a threat to the trees of the Tarkine, I still can’t see much sign of anyone coming along to cut them down.
Indeed, I have seen some naive comments on this forum that suggest that the forests would be safer under Labor than under the Libs. I suppose this proposition would be correct in the case of a minority government requiring Greens support, but let’s not underestimate the strength of the residual support for forestry in the ALP down here: especially in the north part of the state. And past experience has shown us that the ALP supporters of forestry certainly don’t share Hodgman’s qualms about directing taxpayer subsidies towards the sector.
Tasmanian’s forests will never be completely safe for as long as there is a quick buck to be made from them and/or a few unionised jobs to be created. But I feel optimistic that they won’t suffer too much damage under another 4 years of a Hodgman government.
jenauthor
The local primary school parents’ club runs a weekly bingo session as its major fundraiser. The old biddies are delighted to think that their losses are supporting local children.
Hanson Young.
All tip & no iceberg.
Vic:
I have seen Nance make the same comments re Carter Page, but thought he was just being sarcastic. Maybe not!
guytaur @ #3237 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 11:54 am
I don’t much care what they are. I care what they pretend be but are not.
They are not an environmental party.
Andrew Earlwood
I disagree with you on the Greens a lot. However I am glad to see you have not lost sight of the broad church Labor needs to be to govern by winning elections.
That includes winning Greens preferences and having Greens support in the Senate even when Labor is not relying on a confidence motion if in a minority.
To me most Labor people are sensible on this as we have seen with Labor working with the Greens in the ACT. A long term minority government doing good things and winning elections.
In some respects its like siblings arguing in a family with the Labor Green wars.
guytaur: “I have seen comments that the Greens are communist or they are tories.”
In my experience, the truth is that the national Greens membership is a mixture of environmentalists and communists.
The depiction of the Greens as tories comes from a mentality that sees as allied to its enemies anyone who is not embedded within the ALP party and accepts its current line on every issue. It’s directly comparable to the approach adopted by Stalin when he denounced the likes of Trotsky, Bakunin et al as agents of foreign capitalist powers.
guytaur @ #3022 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 11:54 am
Bandt is a lot like SH-Y. Lacks poise. Waters (when she returns) or DiNatale are the best options.
A small percentage of Green voters ARE Tories — but then, a small percentage of Labor voters are sexist and racist.
phoenixRED @ #3210 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 8:30 am
Mr Icahn may well be in a spot of bother as the US enforces its insider trading laws much more stringently than Australia does.
…someone like Whish-Wilson is almost certainly a Tory. He is a NIMBY Green, someone who got involved over an environmental issue because he saw an impact on his personal living space.
zoomster:
And as BiGD pointed out, it’s still easy enough to change leaders while keeping the leadership rules as-is. The reforms discourage frivolous leadership changes, certainly, and makes it easier for a leader whose popular with the membership but not with caucus to hold in, but if the party wants a leader gone, it doesn’t stop them from doing so.
sprocket_ @ #3193 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 11:15 am
And if the Darebin 18 leave the Greens in disgust, then Alex Bhathal will be even more popular! You know it makes Green sense. 🙂
Not to mention the ‘New Volunteers Night’ that The Greens need to hold this week!