Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. So grimace, Labor are very strong possibilities in Pearce, Swan, Hasluck, Stirling and Canning…all winnable on State results.

  2. I wonder what’s happened between Latika Bourke and Mesma …. before LB went to the UK they appeared tor be best buds. Today’s story and an interview I saw a couple of days ago inferred LB is no longer a fan.

  3. I do not appreciate Cher. She was paid to appear for the after race concert at the Adelaide Grand Prix. Her attitude did not endear her to the locals or maybe she thought the yokels.

    Let’s just say I do not listen to any of her music. She can buffer off.

  4. Betting odds really flummox me. I know a narrowing in the payout amount has occurred for Ged Kearney but you would have to think that she is closer to winning Batman than what the current odds suggest?

  5. Given a choice between not doing a stupid thing and making/not losing millions of dollars, what would you think Trump and friends would do?

  6. briefly @ 10.57am
    You’re right of course, the gambling industry and particularly the poker machine lobby did win yesterday and Labor, as history suggested they would, were the sacrificial lambs.
    The good of it all, is the bad publicity the poker machines industry has received.
    There is need for reform in regard to many issues but the bad publicity the poker machine industry received as a result of the campaign was a positive for both Labor and thd anti poker machine lobby.
    With a mini boom going on in Tasmania, Labor have done well to restrict Hodgman and have provided a great reminder to the electorate as to the electorates choice in the future.
    Hodgman and the Tasmanian Liberals will be exposed as the donors and vested interests have theit agendas exposed.
    I’ve been heartened by the efforts of Rebecca White and Labor in Tasmania.

  7. C@t….I’m sure Ged is a better bet than has appeared to be the case…but maybe not much money has been wagered…maybe the Libs are placing lots of small bets on their G surrogate to try to influence expectations…

  8. jenauthor @ #3299 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 1:15 pm

    I wonder what’s happened between Latina Bourke and Mesma …. before LB went to the UK they appeared tor be best buds. Today’s story and an interview I saw a couple of days ago inferred LB is no longer a fan.

    Julie Bishop is doing an all expenses paid lap of the world to honour her many splendid achievements.

    Last week when Turnbull went to Washington with the biggest team of Australian business and bureaucrats ever assembled our Julie was attending a fashion show in London and was photographed running away from Boris Johnson through the streets of London.

    Says everything you need to know about the influence our Foreign Minister has at the moment. Crikey, we’d be better served by a clothes horse.

    She’s probably hanging around just in case Turnbull gets thrown under the polo horses in the near term. But, I doubt she’ll be there after the next election.

  9. Golly….to win in Tasmania Labor need to lift their vote from 33% to 50%. That is a big hill.

    There are many ways to achieve the objectives of gambling reform without doing a Wilkie…Labor need to be smarter or they will invite further defeats.

  10. Labor cannot outplay the Gs at G games…mistake to try. They can stick their elitism. Labor have to play smart as well as tough.

  11. ‘The L/NP have spent the best part of 5 years and tens of millions of dollars on Kill Bill …”

    Of taxpayer money, not theirs’ – or their mates, who avoid / evade most taxes.

  12. The betting odds in the Batman by-election are a reflective mathematical display of the total amount wagered as best rewards the betting facilitator. Polling, betting intentions and the amounts wagered will alter the betting odds in Batman. I reckon very little has been wagered at this time.

  13. Few people gamble on politics, therefore the odds are skewed.

    A lot of the money often follows the polls – which are ‘lagging indicators’.

    Some is just sympathetic money from people who want their team to win.

    And some rolls in immediately after an event that might/might not sway the outcome of an election.

    I would ignore single seat betting for the most part – remember only one in four favourites win!

  14. While I applaud the approach of Tassie Labor, I reckon the ALP should leave pokies alone as an election issue.

    When in gov’t it will be the time to start chipping away at the pokie monster. Also we need a community push to get behind getting rid of them. That means information. The furphy about jobs is a good place to start, and also the harm poker machines do to staff.

    One of the best things to do is to have the sound cards removed from the machines so they are silent.

  15. Be afraid!

    Jim SciuttoVerified account@jimsciutto
    The President of the United States on the unelected leader of authoritarian China: “He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great,” Trump said. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”

  16. lizzie @ #3322 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 1:37 pm

    grimace

    The question in my mind at the moment: When Jewellery Julie retires, will she hold on to the earrings?

    Probably not. ‘Friendship’ at that end of the social spectrum is very fluid, shall we say. And I don’t expect she’ll stick around in Opposition either. Imagine having to reprise the ‘Death Stare’ and the ‘cat’s claws’ manouevers all over again? It would all look sadly pathetic.

  17. Fairfax Media has learnt dozens of Liberal MPs are lobbying senior ministers to increase funding for the $250… https://t.co/qvwpuySCBz— Reason Australia (@reasonaustralia) March 4, 2018

    Not separating, but entrenching, church within state.

    An issue that should be a priority in voters minds on election day.

  18. ‘fess

    Has Cher moved to Australia?

    I hope not!

    If she has then Dutton has a major failure on his record.

    😀 again.

  19. Puff

    If Labor did not expect to win Tasmania. I think they have succeeded in doing exactly that.

    The nation knows Labor went on an anti pokies platform. They know this nationally now.

    Could help Labor in South Australia as an immediate effect against Xenophon

  20. TimWattsMP: The thing about the calamitous way that Barnaby has been handling his recent travails is that it’s entirely consistent with the calamitous way he’s managed his Ministerial portfolios for the past four years.

  21. Absence of empathy @ 12:17
    Hopes that Barnaby ends up with the arse out of his pants
    At least then he could probably lead the Mardi Gras parade.

  22. confessions:

    The President of the United States on the unelected leader of authoritarian China: “He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great,” Trump said. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”

    FMD. Did he seriously say that?

    Jesus Christ.

  23. Bw

    ‘oleaginous’

    Does this mean Turnbull is throwing hints to Brig Molan that his ‘POL’ problem will be seen too?

  24. What I don’t understand is why Joyce has hung his dirty linen out to dry in public view.

    Was the paternity issue going to become public in any case, so it was better for him to say it rather than have sniggers and innuendo?

    The situation as he describes it is one that cannot do him any good. It must have been the lesser of two evils for him to publicise it.

  25. The banning of pokies policy allegedly comes down to preventing harm to those who are “addicted”and can’t gamble responsibly. Surely if a ban is imposed then those who are addicted will use on line pokies which are unregulated and unregulatable.
    Meanwhile the large number of people who get some entertainment from them and can control their gambling will loose that entertainment
    From many of the comments about the policy it seems to me that much of the policy is driven by a middle class dislike of the pub/club mileu. Its not my cup of tea but then again not everyone likes sitting through the Ring Cycle. Each to their own. Labor becoming the nanny party to some of its core constituents is always likely to end up with results like yesterday’s.

  26. speaking to some all male visitors today. B Joyce subject came up.

    They say that his latest comments to the media are beyond the pale.

    He was the married one with the four young daughters, but his inference was that his partner was not exclusive to him. Well was he exclusive to his wife? Seriously, this latest brain fart is a doozy.

    He should simply resign and go away never to be seen again. He is a disgrace.

  27. don

    The only sensible and reasonable thing for Barnaby to do was stfu and resign from parliament.

    There is no excusing his latest crapola. This man was our DPM for goodness sake!!

  28. Grimace…you may be right about Tangney, but there has been v little demographic change there, unlike Forrest and Durack…

    Freo is impossible for the Gs…too many true-blue working class voters in the interior

  29. Victoria

    Yes. I too thought Joyce should have resigned. Not because of the affair. The cover up.

    This latest in what can only be called slut shaming is appalling character.

  30. Victoria @ #3341 Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 2:14 pm

    don

    The only sensible and reasonable thing for Barnaby to do was stfu and resign from parliament.

    There is no excusing his latest crapola. This man was our DPM for goodness sake!!

    I think, as far as Barnaby Joyce goes now, DPM must stand for, ‘Doesn’t Pass Muster’.

  31. Victoria says:
    Sunday, March 4, 2018 at 2:14 pm
    don

    The only sensible and reasonable thing for Barnaby to do was stfu and resign from parliament.

    Indeed, but he needs the money. Desperately.

    Even leaving aside the morals aspect (which he used to espouse, very much past tense these days) – he is in a world of financial pain. I hope that his wife gets a divorce settlement that will make his eyes water.

    And as you know I have skin in this game – Barnaby Joyce is my representative in the Australian Federal Parliament!

  32. Asha Leu Sunday, March 4th, 2018 – 2:02 pm Comment #3335

    confessions:

    “The President of the United States on the unelected leader of authoritarian China: “He’s now president for life. President for life. And he’s great,” Trump said. “And look, he was able to do that. I think it’s great. Maybe we’ll give that a shot some day.”

    FMD. Did he seriously say that?

    Jesus Christ.

    AL – It’s a ‘ripper. Trump is obviously crazy in the true meaning of the word.

  33. Know your constituents:
    When Rusty bought the Rabbitohs he was going to replace the cheer girls with drummers AND ban pokies.
    Neither lasted, true rabbitohs would have rather ended up in the NSW cup than have an emasculated middle class RL club.

  34. My contention is that Barnaby is trying to get back to the leadership as soon as possible. He sees his biggest problem as the breach of Ministerial standards, therefore if Campion wasn’t his partner (but more of a casual grope) then Ministerial standards weren’t breached.

    Using handy due date calculator, for a baby to be due in mid April, it was conceived in July (when she was working in Carnavon’s office).

    Campion was present at least part of the time for Joyce’s latest interview, and given that sowing doubt over the paternity of the child seems to be the only purpose of it, that suggests she is complicit.

    Of course Barnaby doesn’t want a paternity test in these circumstances. If the baby is his, then it’s harder to pretend Campion was not his partner at the time.

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