Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

Comments Page 36 of 73
1 … 35 36 37 … 73

  1. poroti
    My prediction is that mysterious non trade barriers to Australian dairy commodities will be the next escalation.

  2. The Cash whiteboard business shows again just how dumb some of the Tories are when it comes to politics.

    I am sure they will tell anybody who asks that they have nothing to hide … and then they hide Cash behind a screen as she walks down a corridor.

    What were they expecting? a rugby tackle?

    Parliament House media staff know where they can go and what they can film and the penalties for transgressors can be career limiting.

    Instead of 30 seconds of vision of Cash walking down a corridor we have 30 seconds of vision that makes her look what she is … a bleeding idiot.

  4. Rewi

    “I don’t want to be a Cassandra about it, but surely something’s got to give.”
    ——-

    But Cassandra always told the truth. It’s just that no one believed her!!

  5. Boerwar @ #1736 Thursday, March 1st, 2018 – 3:43 pm

    BiGD
    Ah. Thanks for that. It is good to see that it is now simply not on to randomly bastardize female workers.
    I can understand that Cash was simply too stupid to understand that Carr was actually after a
    different fish.
    I can understand that Cash thought she was bashing Shorten around the ears.
    And I can understand that Cash was too stupid to understand that she was actually bashing an office full of female workers.
    I can understand that Cash was stupid in the way she decided to play possum.
    What I can’t understand is why Turnbull cannot simply say, she made a mistake, she has withdrawn and it will not happen again.

    Who says it was a mistake?

    Several from the Government have basically doubled down in support for Cash today.

    One thing is now clear is that Cash has taken over Brandis’ responsibilities after supposedly passing her interview with the AWA raids last year. 🙂

  6. Whoops, should be mysterious ‘non tariff trade barriers’.

    Her Pearlship would rather be jogging with the Bouncing Boris that sorting this one.

  8. BiGD
    Mistake?
    In terms of the agenda that Turnbull wants to push, surely the Cashtastrophe is a Unicorn?
    Surely Turnbull does not want to be having to defend Cash instead of Killing Bill?

  9. I have been fighting with Origin energy. I have a solar hot water heater, and was paying $12.42 every quarter just for the privilege of having controlled load available to kick in overnight and at weekends to make up any deficits because of prolonged rainy weather. After that you pay for the electricity anyhow.

    OK, it’s less than $50 a year. But I am at war with my electricity supply company, as many others are.

    Overnight off-peak is not a significantly dearer option, so I got my electrician to put in a timer. It comes on about 1 am to 5 am to heat the water if necessary. Works fine.

    That was six months ago, October 2017.

    After an abortive couple of phone calls, I finally got to someone (an anglo) who understood what I was trying to have done, and assured me that it was fixed. A couple of months later, late December 2017, I got a credit of $4.01 for the overcharge. Great, mission accomplished.

    Then I got my last bill, and the controlled load charge is still there. I decided to try to fix this.

    Today I spent an hour and a half talking to ‘Swati’. She needed my name, address, customer number, the works. She had no record of the conversation with the anglo lady (who was lovely, but refused point blank to give me a number for the conversation. I tried, Dog knows I tried. “It’s all good” she said. )

    Swati finally sent me to Vince, and although I had given everything except my grandmother’s birthdate to Swati, so far as Vince was concerned, it was a cold call. I gave him all the usual stuff from square one, starting with my address, plus my mother’s date of birth, and he seemed happy with that.

    But he sent me an email, with an attached pdf, which I had to fill in with all the relevant details once more, (it was, at least, a ‘form’ pdf) and he told me I should print it out, fill it in, scan it, and send it back.

    Well, since it was a ‘form’ pdf I was able to fill in most of it, except for the signature.

    Signature? Surely you jest. Should I use a quill and ink?

    But I have a jpg of my signature. I am here to tell you that although ‘form’ pdfs accept text and numbers, jpgs are not on the menu.

    But I have a ‘pdf pro’ program which allows me to do just that. I was determined that I would not print the damned thing out and sign it and then scan it.

    I emailed it off with the pdf as an attachment. The accompanying documentation says it may take 31 business days to get anywhere.

    I can send thousands of dollars around the world in a few seconds with just my email and a password, but I can’t get a computer to put a cross instead of a check mark on the bit that says ‘charge for controlled load 1’.

    Say it ain’t so, Joe.

    Yes, yes, Centrelink is worse. A lot worse. I know that, you know that.

    But this is a private company who are ‘dedicated’ to satisfying their customers.

    Yeah, right.

  11. Boerwar @ #1444 Thursday, March 1st, 2018 – 4:29 pm

    BiGD
    Mistake?
    In terms of the agenda that Turnbull wants to push, surely the Cashtastrophe is a Unicorn?
    Surely Turnbull does not want to be having to defend Cash instead of Killing Bill?

    You would think so, but they continually do it.

    Cunning plan or incompetence?

    I wonder how this week ranks on the worst week ever scale?

    I saw talk the other day about adding a new level to classify tropical storms, I think we need a new means for classifying Government performance!!!

    Excelent
    Very good
    Good
    O.K.
    Poor
    Bad
    Terible
    WTF
    🙂

  15. Not sure if someone mentioned this earlier but this was posted on the Guardian blog regarding the Government’s review of Disability Support Benefits.

    What a f@#king waste of time, money and effort!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Paul Karp
    Questions on notice have revealed that of 30,056 people who were subject to assessments of whether they are still eligible for the disability support pension from July 2017 to November 2017, only 135 came off the DSP.

    Of those:

    119 voluntarily chose to come off DSP and are either no longer receiving income support (56) or are on another payment (63); and
    16 recipients had their DSP cancelled and are either no longer receiving income support (10) or are receiving a more appropriate payment (6).
    Greens welfare spokeswoman, Rachel Siewert, said:

    “With only 66 people coming off income support … out of 30,000+ recipients reviewed, it seems the eligibility checks have been a monumental waste of time and money.

    “The government would have likely spent more money carrying out the checks than the money they’ve clawed back from these people, meanwhile 30,000+ recipients have gone through a stressful process that didn’t need to occur in the first place.

    “In Senate estimates today the Department of Social Services admitted they were reviewing the process, which to me is a concession that the process isn’t working as they hoped.

    “I urge the government to stop this awful process that is causing stress to vulnerable members of our community. It is obviously not saving money and is just causing harm.”

  18. BigD:

    I’m glad you are back to your old acronym! Keep it, and especially if you go to live in Loja, Ecuador.

    I saw talk the other day about adding a new level to classify tropical storms, I think we need a new means for classifying Government performance!!!

    Excellent
    Very good
    Good
    O.K.
    Poor
    Bad
    Terrible
    WTF

    Surely the Barnaby week had to be worse, but this week was also a cracker. Also on the WTF? level.

    What was Cash thinking with the ^&*(&()_* WHITEBOARD! thing?

    Without it, as others have said here, you get a few seconds of Cash walking into a room. Big deal.

    Instead, she is hiding behind a whiteboard! And going to a room where there are lots of cameras to record every eyebrow lift!

    I say again, what was she thinking?

    Hmmmm, on mature reflection, now I see my mistake.

  19. don @ #1768 Thursday, March 1st, 2018 – 9:03 pm

    BigD:

    I’m glad you are back to your old acronym! Keep it, and especially if you go to live in Loja, Ecuador.

    Surely the Barnaby week had to be worse, but this week was also a cracker. Also on the WTF? level.

    What was Cash thinking with the ^&*(&()_* WHITEBOARD! thing?

    Without it, as others have said here, you get a few seconds of Cash walking into a room. Big deal.

    Instead, she is hiding behind a whiteboard! And going to a room where there are lots of cameras to record every eyebrow lift!

    I say again, what was she thinking?

    Hmmmm, on mature reflection, now I see my mistake.

    I’ve always found Origin fair and easy to deal with.

  21. I have just seen Cash being ferreted through the halls of PH behind a whiteboard with security staff abounding to keep the media at bay.

    If ever there was an image that sums up the sheer ludicrousness of Cash that’s it. Too scared to even be seen in her place of employment.

    Election now!

  22. Prime Minister Ahern cuts a very authentic jib. Impressive and can see how she resonates with people. Sales “cringing” along with all aussie women at the 60 min interview was a nice knife in the ribs!

  23. don @ #1454 Thursday, March 1st, 2018 – 5:03 pm

    BigD:

    I’m glad you are back to your old acronym! Keep it, and especially if you go to live in Loja, Ecuador.

    Surely the Barnaby week had to be worse, but this week was also a cracker. Also on the WTF? level.

    What was Cash thinking with the ^&*(&()_* WHITEBOARD! thing?

    Without it, as others have said here, you get a few seconds of Cash walking into a room. Big deal.

    Instead, she is hiding behind a whiteboard! And going to a room where there are lots of cameras to record every eyebrow lift!

    I say again, what was she thinking?

    Hmmmm, on mature reflection, now I see my mistake.

    On top of that she didn’t turn up to Estimates last night and had another sit in for her.

    I think the Cathy Wilcox cartoon posted earlier captured the whiteboard “beautifully”. 🙂

  27. Michaelia Cash’s office has filed a complaint to the Sergeant-at-Arms about the media filming that embarrassing entrance into estimates earlier.

    #snowflake

  28. Michaelia Cash’s office has filed a complaint to the Sergeant-at-Arms about the media filming that embarrassing entrance into estimates earlier.

    LOL. Why do the whiteboard walk of shame in the first place if she didn’t want to draw attention to herself?

  29. Oops sorry ive been out of aus so long i dont know who is who. Watching Stan Grant… 20 yrs ago he was a joke clown, much better now but not the Fareed Zakharia he’s aiming for.

    I chuckle a tad at the hyperbolic rage “worst govt ever” levelled at Turnbull and co. Dont get me wrong, nothing flash to be inspired by… but there’s just no perspective any more. After some first hand exposure to some diabolical governments elsewhere in the world, its hard to get as worked up over some of the stuff invoked here which is just sooo insignificant

  31. C@tmomma @ #1463 Thursday, March 1st, 2018 – 5:28 pm

    Michaelia Cash’s office has filed a complaint to the Sergeant-at-Arms about the media filming that embarrassing entrance into estimates earlier.

    #snowflake

    It’s all about her, isn’t it!

    How f@#king vane and paranoid can one get?

    There were at least 3 people in the foreground and a lovely whiteboard.

    Who says they were not the subject of the photographers’ images? 🙂

  32. Is Cash stupid enough to be trying to remind people that one of the many but bigger reasons she should have been sacked is that she and her office breached duty, protocol and probably the law to have the media at a ridiculous partisan AFP raid over ancient nothings to embarras the leader of the opposition.

    I thought Tony Windsor was pulling our legs when he said it was an absurd sideshow to distract for the improprieties and possible / alleged misuse of Commonwealth funds by the former DPM. Maybe he wasn’t just having a laugh.

  36. Got a Galaxy Robo poll tonight on Fed voting intentions.
    Which Party would you vote for
    Satisfied with Turnbull (only choices Y,N & undecided)
    Satisfied with Shorten (only choices Y,N & undecided)
    Preferred PM
    Regardless of your voting intention & regardless of how you have voted previously which party best represents your values (or words to that effect)

  37. poroti – you asked me about ‘whipper snipper’ as a description a couple of nights ago.

    It was a commonly used ‘tag’ (may have been only in use in Canberra) that equalled a ‘loud mouth light weight’.

  39. Hi Don,

    The off-peak system is a service contracted by the retailers to the network companies. Well, maybe contract is overstating it, more of a gentlemans’ agreement from back in the vertically integrated days. It’s not really managed, it just is. Honestly, no-one really know who owns the service, and I am mildly stunned that you are paying for the privilege to access cheaper energy at night, given the value it provides to the network company.*

    Anyway, Origin will have to pass that form you filled out on to Essential Energy, who will process it, eventually, then pass the message back to Origin, and maybe, they’ll pass it back to you. If it doesn’t get lost.

    * Ha, I see my mistake, that’s a social value, so not bankable or RAB-able.

  41. CTar1

    Whippersnapper

    “nouninformal
    noun: whipper-snapper
    a young and inexperienced person considered to be presumptuous or overconfident.”

  42. The trouble with Ministers, and Cash is today’s prime example, is they spend nearly all their days talking to people who agree with them or who are dependent on them for their livelihood.

    Would anybody in Cash’s staff have the courage to say “Jeesus the whiteboard was a dumb idea”.

    These people, and Labor has had them too, are so out of touch with ordinary people they believe their excrement does not stink and they can do what they like with their time and our money.

    Gillard has her critics here, and some of the criticism is justified, but when the Murdoch hatchet men were after her over the AWU business did she hide behind a whiteboard? No, she twice fronted up and answered questions until the journalists had run out of steam.

    Has any Turnbull or Abbott minister not run away from a presser? Five minutes is what they give if we are lucky.

    I hope I live long enough to read history’s judgment on this lot. Hopefully the electorate will pass judgment some time this year.

  44. These people, and Labor has had them too, are so out of touch with ordinary people they believe their excrement does not stink and they can do what they like with their time and our money.

    The Senate is predisposed to such people because they don’t ever really face election.

    And the comparison with Gillard is faulty. Julia Gillard has way more integrity and competence than Michaelia Cash.

  47. Senators don’t even face an electorate. Goodness knows what low level senators do with their time when parliament isn’t sitting. They don’t even have to campaign hard like a HoR candidate.

  48. Jim AcostaVerified account@Acosta
    10h10 hours ago
    Scoop: Mueller’s team is asking about comments made by Hope Hicks about Russian contacts to the NYT, a former Trump campaign official who has spoken to Special Counsel’s office tells CNN.

    Jim AcostaVerified account@Acosta
    10h10 hours ago
    Mueller’s team asking about this comment Hicks made to NYT two days after 2016 election: “We are not aware of any campaign representatives that were in touch with any foreign entities before yesterday, when Mr. Trump spoke with many world leaders,”

    Jim AcostaVerified account@Acosta
    10h10 hours ago
    A former Trump campaign official who was asked about this said this has come up with Mueller’s team as well as with House and Senate Intelligence Committees.

    Mueller is reportedly not asking questions to which he does not have the answer. If the 2nd and 3rd tweets of Acosta’s are true then no wonder Hicks announced her resignation the day after chatting with Mueller.

  49. ‘fess

    The Senate is predisposed to such people because they don’t ever really face election.

    Yep. if you’re near the top of your parties senate list you can just cruise along on $250,000 a year for a long time, like Patterson, as long as you don’t f$ck up badly.

Comments Page 36 of 73
1 … 35 36 37 … 73

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *