BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor

Following Newspoll, the latest poll aggregate reading washes away the Coalition’s gains from the earlier polling since New Year.

This week’s Newspoll result had added 0.3% to Labor’s two-party reading on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, and added one seat to their national on the seat projection, the gain being in South Australia. The biggest change on the primary vote is an improvement for One Nation, who reversed a weakening trend over the past few months with the latest poll. Newspoll also recorded a weakening in Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings, but evidently the aggregate had this priced in already, as the trend results show little changed on last week. As always, full results on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,222 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 52.7-47.3 to Labor”

  1. Also, glad to see some discussions earlier tonight on how Labor and the Green can be closer to allies than enemies. Unless some rapprochement occurs, we will be condemned to Coalition governments for the for the foreseeable future, kind of like that 23 years from 1949 -1972.

  2. Now off to see if the Italian, Spanish or German papers have noticed Barnaby’s shenanigans. Will report back if anything discovered!

  4. @Dan Gulberry

    Agreed.

    USA does everything backward.

    Which makes our country backwards too.

    I prefer Green-Labor alliance.

    Much better than vested interested alliance.

  5. Not too long until boarding, and so have only got to The Times, of London.

    No mention of Barnaby, but The Times seems to be a fairly objective newspaper – kind of like the SMH and the Age used to be. The journalists Edward Lucas and and Phillip Collins seem to be taking to role of Paul Sheehan and Miranda Devine before they left Fairfax, with nasty Anti-Corbyn articles, but as a whole the paper is not bad.


  7. Pseudo Cud Chewer (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 1:37 am
    Comment #1697

    http://coalaction.org.nz/carbon-emissions/can-we-make-steel-without-coal

    Good article.
    Also I might add that there is a lot of carbon sitting around in landfills that can be dug up and reused for various things – including steel making.

    And why would you do that? Carbon in landfill is not CO2 just as coal in the ground is not CO2. The difference is coal is suitable for steal making.


  8. Disasterboy says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 12:13 am
    Metallurgical coal?

    It is entirely possible to make steel without burning coal on a blast furnace.

    And without Greens pixie dust, either.

    Not from iron ore, it’s not. You can recycle old steel if it is available, but for ‘new’ iron you must have a source of carbon.

    High quality coal is turned into coke, almost pure carbon, which is then put in a furnace with the iron ore, which consists of various iron oxides. The trick is to get rid of the oxygen which is combined with the iron.

    The coke burns, producing heat and carbon monoxide, which reduces the iron oxide to molten iron metal.

    Any source of pure carbon will do – they used to use charcoal produced from wood, but coking coal is far more available in quantity.

    Natural gas, which is mostly methane, CH4, can also be used where it is cheaper than coking coal.


  10. Disasterboy (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 12:13 am
    Comment #1691

    Metallurgical coal?

    It is entirely possible to make steel without burning coal on a blast furnace.
    And without Greens pixie dust, either.

    Actually they can’t. One uses iron ore ( ferrous oxide) as raw material; the other scrap steal. To use an arc furnace you need an economy that offers scrap; or import it from a country that does.

  12. Electric Arc responsible for 30% steel production but is recycling. This does demonstrate that when reduction of the iron ore is not needed then electricity is preferred. Metallurgical coal burns producing the heat need and the Carbon Monoxide takes the oxygen from the ore leaving iron and making CO2.

    If another reducing agent will work then no coal is needed. Hydrogen is being investigated which can be produced with electricity. So, a steel maker who has a means of generating electricity can make hydrogen which can also act as energy store. SA has two hydrogen plants and a steel works planed.

    http://www.ft.com/content/f2b85c0c-ed2f-11e6-ba01-119a44939bb6

  13. Frednk:
    Actually they can’t. One uses iron ore ( ferrous oxide) as raw material; the other scrap steel.

    ______________

    Nitpick:

    ferrous (II) oxide is quite rare on the earth’s surface, although there is a lot of it in the mantle.

    You are thinking of ferric (III) oxide, of which there is a lot, often in the form of hydrated ferric oxides.

    Ferrous (II) carbonate is stable and often forms part of iron ore, and is called siderite, which means it can be turned into iron, it is about 50% iron, but it is more difficult to work with than the ferric oxides. Magnetite is a mix of II and III iron.

    But FeO (II) is too easily oxidised to III in the presence of air (and water) to form much of iron ore.

  14. Scrolonby says:
    Sunday, February 25, 2018 at 6:27 am


    If another reducing agent will work then no coal is needed. Hydrogen is being investigated which can be produced with electricity. So, a steel maker who has a means of generating electricity can make hydrogen which can also act as energy store. SA has two hydrogen plants and a steel works planned.

    _____________

    Thanks, the use of hydrogen, the ultimate reducing agent, did not occur to me. Of course that would work.

    It is usually difficult to produce and store, though those problems are being overcome via the push for hydrogen powered vehicles.

    Further advances can be expected if it becomes the favoured industrial process for making iron.

    A small amount of carbon ( circa 0.25 % give or take) is needed to make steel, however. Some use 1% or more.

  15. The Greens campaign in Batman has been all about Labor-Adani when the putative Greens Member for Batman has zero influence over Qld Labor’s govt, and federal Labor is not the federal govt?

    Climate change affects everybody.

    The electoral potency of the Greens’ message on Adani has influenced Labor significantly – Qld Labor reversed course on whether the mine should get a NAIF loan, and federal Labor finally dropped the absurd “if it stacks up” flimflam.

    You sound like someone who is profoundly annoyed that Labor’s lackadaisical attitude towards coal mining and climate change is no longer electorally cost-free because another party is making them pay an electoral price for being CFMEU-oriented on these issues.

  17. https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/environment-watchdog-could-slap-tougher-emissions-caps-on-power-plants-20180223-p4z1is.html

    Their submission points to a recent US study that tied sulphur emissions from coal-fired power plants to low-birthweight babies downwind, and noted that there are more low-birthweight babies born in the Latrobe Valley than the statewide average.

    The incidence of low birthweight in these areas is 8.5 per cent, which is higher than the Victorian average of 6.6 per cent.

    Low birthweight is associated with childhood health problems and with chronic heart and kidney disease in later life.

    The EPA review has also heard that mercury emissions into the ocean food chain could also explain why a dolphin that lives in the Gippsland Lakes has among the highest recorded mercury levels of marine mammals in the world.

    The Burrunan dolphin is an extremely rare marine mammal that lives almost exclusively in the Gippsland Lakes and Port Phillip Bay.

  19. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Nick O’Malley says that it’s hard to see Barnaby and Tony sitting quietly on the back bench.
    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/hard-to-see-barnaby-and-tony-sitting-quietly-on-the-back-bench-20180224-p4z1ld.html
    Jess Irvine tells us what economists really think about corporate tax cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-economists-really-think-about-cutting-corporate-tax-20180222-h0wj53.html
    Before he departs for Indonesia James Massola reflects on his time in Canberra.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/arrivederci-canberra-20180222-p4z1ds.html
    A $25 million library designed to look like a Scottish castle, an orchestra pit and a chapel nestled into nearby bushland are just some of the new features planned for Sydney’s elite private schools, despite complaints from neighbouring residents and local councils. How can any government justify giving a single cent to these outfits?
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/sydney-s-top-private-schools-reveal-extravagant-new-building-plans-20180222-p4z1ek.html
    This editorial agrees with me.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/when-schools-look-like-resorts-questions-about-funding-must-be-asked-20180221-p4z14r.html
    Three Victorian teachers write that Guy and the Liberals have got it all wrong with their education policy.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/why-are-the-liberals-so-terrified-of-our-schools-20180221-p4z154.html
    Katharine Murphy gets into Labor over its fence sitting over the Adani coal project.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/24/labors-fence-sitting-on-adani-has-become-a-double-backflip
    Two top USA Swimming officials, including one whose job was specifically to protect athletes, have resigned after a series of scathing reports alleging that the organisation had ignored sexual abuse by coaches for years while athletes suffered. This is a familiar story.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/two-us-swimming-officials-resign-for-allegedly-covering-up-sexual-abuse-20180224-h0wlmf.html
    Some of the biggest names in corporate America are coming under mounting pressure to cut ties with the National Rifle Association as gun safety activists on Friday intensified calls for a boycott in the wake of last week’s Florida high school massacre. The tide is turning.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/media-and-marketing/bad-business-apple-google-amazon-pressured-to-cut-ties-with-nra-20180223-p4z1js.html
    Nick O’Malley reports that Woolworths, the retail giant that has evolved into the largest gambling business in the country, benefits to the tune of an estimated $30 million a year in tax breaks in NSW due to a quirk of the state tax regime.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-quirk-giving-woolworths-a-30m-tax-break-on-poker-machine-takings-20180223-p4z1i9.html
    Everyone’s favourite, Lee Rhiannon, writes that the housing market in Australia is rigged.
    https://newmatilda.com/2018/02/24/australias-housing-market-isnt-broken-working-perfectly/
    Hardly reported by the Australian media, the NAB is facing a serious and potentially costly class action from bank victims in the UK.
    https://independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/the-parlous-history-of-nabs-clydesdale-bank-part-2-will-clydesdale-boil-over,11232
    Michael Koziol has been looking for evidence of sex in the House.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/sex-in-parliament-house-it-ain-t-what-it-used-to-be-20180221-p4z18g.html
    The ACT has joined forces with the Northern Territory to prioritise the removal of the Andrew’s Bill that prevents the two territories from considering voluntary euthanasia reforms. Bring it on!
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act-news/act-joins-forces-with-nt-to-call-for-voluntary-euthanasia-reform-20180223-h0wkla.html
    Michael West looks at some suspicious Origin Energy transactions.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/when-a-sale-is-not-a-sale-origin-energys-unreal-unrealised-gain/
    There is a new eating disorder. It’s orthorexia nervosa – the obsession with clean, pure and healthy food, often arising from regimens that exclude entire food groups, such as grains, dairy or meat.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/wellbeing/2018/02/24/orthorexia-clean-eating-obsession/
    Austria’s new government is allowing secretive groups with links to the far right to exert control over powerful positions in the state, according to former Chancellor Christian Kern. This is not a good sign.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/shadowy-far-right-fraternities-infiltrating-austrian-state-20180224-p4z1l5.html
    This history professor writes that US gun violence is a symptom of a long historical problem.
    https://theconversation.com/u-s-gun-violence-is-a-symptom-of-a-long-historical-problem-92322
    Here’s Peter FitzSimons’ weekend column with a good joke at its end.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/and-the-new-nats-leader-should-be-20180223-p4z1g0.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Reg Lynch introduces the Bonk Squad.

    Paul Zanetti reckons the media will miss Barnaby.

    Six of the best from Mark Golding.





    From Glen Le Lievre.

    Jon Kudelka takes Barnaby to the back bench.

  21. Don you are absolutely correct; I apologize; year 12 science was 42 years ago, commissioning an arc furnace 35.

    As to using Hydrogen as the reducing agent; it has nothing to do with an arc furnaces. If your interested in green pixie dust look at direct electrolysis of iron ore.

  22. Ah, “Kill Bill” Massola couldn’t help being snarky on the way out. This comment on economics says it all about how misguided Massola was (is).

    “Indeed Bowen – a man who knows company tax cuts can deliver economic growth and wages dividends – could prove to be the hope of the side for a Shorten Labor government.”

    Piss off, mate, you won’t be missed.

  23. From BK’s link about education. FMD are those Liberal Party incubators getting too much or what !

    The combined price tag for these seven schools’ planned developments is $365 million. Compare this to the $390 million allocated by the NSW government last year to address an enormous maintenance backlog across the state’s 2100 public schools.

  24. Fire and Fury author: Trump and Jared will throw each other ‘under the bus’ to avoid Mueller indictments

    Author Michael Wolff, whose book Fire and Fury: Inside the Trump White House surged to the top of best seller lists, is expecting special counsel Robert Mueller to indict Jared Kushner, HuffPost UK reported Saturday.

    At a Friday evening event in London, Wolff described Invanka Trump and Kushner as “the most entitled people on earth.”

    He also said the couple have “not one scintilla of relevant experience to this job. Not one.”

    “Do you think if the chips were down, Trump will, in the end, fire his own daughter?” host Armando Iannucci asked.

    “I think that there is a pretty good possibility at this point that Jared will be indicted,” Wolff predicted.

    “So the more direct question is will Trump throw his son-in-law under the bus, and then the corollary to that is, will his son-in-law throw his father-in-law under the bus?” Wolff suggested : And I think the answer to both questions is ‘yes’

    https://www.rawstory.com/2018/02/expected-indictment-jared-signalling-bloodiest-time-administration-report/

  25. antonbruckner11

    “Indeed Bowen – a man who knows company tax cuts can deliver economic growth and wages dividends – could prove to be the hope of the side for a Shorten Labor government.”

    This is proven nonsense. Does Bowen really believe that, or is Massola putting words in his mouth because he believes it? Besides, we don’t need another Keating. He swung too far to the ‘right’.

  26. lizzie @ #1725 Sunday, February 25th, 2018 – 7:47 am

    antonbruckner11

    “Indeed Bowen – a man who knows company tax cuts can deliver economic growth and wages dividends – could prove to be the hope of the side for a Shorten Labor government.”

    This is proven nonsense. Does Bowen really believe that, or is Massola putting words in his mouth because he believes it? Besides, we don’t need another Keating. He swung too far to the ‘right’.

    This furphy was referenced yesterday at the conference. Basically the reference to Chris Bowen believing that tax cuts could lead to wages growth was made in the context of his believing that an Accord-like situation where the base is broadened and companies are made to pay their fair share of tax by closing the loopholes might be approved. In talks with representatives of the Business Community, like the BCA, they ran a mile from that scenario. 🙂

  31. C@t

    It’s like chinese whispers, changed slightly with every repetition and the details smoothed out until what the journo reports hardly resembles the original.

  32. Trump tax reform gives Buffett $29bn boost

    The Republican law reform, approved in December, cut the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%.

    Mr Buffett, one of the richest men in the world, opposed the plan.

    In his letter to investors, Mr Buffett said the tax cut accounted for nearly half of the firm’s gain in net worth during 2017.

    “A large portion of our gain did not come from anything we accomplished at Berkshire,” he wrote. “Only $36 billion came from Berkshire’s operations. The remaining $29 billion was delivered to us in December when Congress rewrote the US Tax Code.”

    Non-partisan analysts had said the greatest beneficiaries of the tax package would be multinational corporations.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-43183737

  33. Is BeetRooterGate finished? No.

    This will be dragged out at least through the next week of Senate Estimates, and the Murdoch press have not exhausted the Barnyard dirt file provided to them by Liberal Party operatives.

    Once you sool the dogs of war on your enemy, it is hard to bring them to heel. Anyway, here is the latest Murdoch tabloid effort, including another instalment from the dirt file.

    “Barnaby Joyce and his pregnant partner Vikki Campion have reportedly been spotted house hunting, after the former deputy prime minister claimed they’d been hounded out of their rent-free townhouse.

    Following Mr Joyce’s resignation of Friday, the pair have spent time in the holiday town of South West Rocks on the mid-north coast, theDaily Telegraph reports.

    Details have also emerged about the “chaos and dysfunction” in Mr Joyce’s office, which culminated in a demand by his former chief-of-staff Di Hallam that he reveal his affair with Ms Campion to Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull back in December 2016, while seeking to have her moved.

    Sources told the newspaper Ms Campion felt “bullied” and later went on stress leave after her Parliament House pass was cancelled.
    ‘

  34. Sources told the newspaper Ms Campion felt “bullied” and later went on stress leave after her Parliament House pass was cancelled.

    You gotta give it to these Tele journalists, they can dish it but when they are on the receiving end they go all ‘bullying’ and in need of ‘stress leave’.

  38. Morning all. I think this article sums up my own view of BarnabyGate well:
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/23/in-this-mess-of-his-own-creation-barnaby-joyces-self-pity-was-repulsive

    Joyce was only “saved” from being sacked by the PM pretending he had not given a job to his partner because his pregnant live in partner was not his partner. Then Joyce blames others? I can but agree that, given the degree of entitlement displayed, it will be interesting to investigate his expenses. He is not budging from his seat so the Joyce story is not finished.

  39. OMG, now weapons of maths destruction threaten the US.

    Students in Louisiana thought this math symbol looked like a gun. Police were called

    A high school student was investigated and his home searched after allegedly making comments interpreted as possible terrorist threats when … Parish Sheriff’s Office revealed the incident began when a Oberlin High School student drew the square root symbol while completing a math problem in class.

    http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2018/02/23/square-root-gun-likeness/

  40. Morning all. I did wonder some weeks ago while more wasn’t been made of Kushner’s lack of security clearances.

    Now the media is all over it.

  41. Socrates

    My view of JoyceGate is a mixed scorecard:

    1. Turnbull is trying to pretend that the Nationals are separate from the Government. Tick.
    2. Turnbull tried to turn the situation into being all about sex. Tick.
    3. Government accountability avoided for (a) rorting expenses (b) wrecking the MDB (c) gross abuse of staffing funding (d) conflict of interest in property purchase by Joyce AND by most of Cabinet in terms of negative gearing (e) corrupt decision making in terms of Chemicals Authority. Tick.
    4. Turnbull reinforced existing views about hopeless political judgement and lack of team work. FAIL.
    5. Relations between Nationals and Liberals severely strained. FAIL.
    6. Turnbull will get zip lift out of US visit because everyone was talking about Joyce. FAIL.
    7. The slight air of optimism and momentum and a successful reset has been smashed to smithereens. FAIL.

  42. don

    Thanks, the use of hydrogen, the ultimate reducing agent, did not occur to me. Of course that would work.

    It is usually difficult to produce and store, though those problems are being overcome via the push for hydrogen powered vehicles.

    Hydrogen powered vehicles are unlikely to gain much of a foothold. Like Carbon, Capture and Storage, the physics and the economics don’t come together.
    (CCS is hopelessly inefficient, as a very large percentage of the energy generated by the power plant is required just to run the carbon capture process.)
    Even if you solve the problem of hydrogen distribution, and prove that hydrogen is not a greenhouse gas*, you are still faced with the inherent inefficiency of using hydrolysis to generate hydrogen.
    With hydrogen generation, you have to produce the gas by hydrolysis, only 50-60% efficient, then compress for distribution over the, as yet, non-existent hydrogen distribution network, then use an inefficient ICE engine to generate power.
    Why major car manufactures would even look at this technology is one of the mysteries of the modern world.

    This is not to say that hydrogen generation for industrial processes like steel making, would not make sense.
    * although not directly a greenhouse gas, hydrogen knocks out hydroxyl radicals in the upper atmosphere which in turn slows the breakdown of methane. The effects of a hydrogen-based economy on global warming are not adequately researched.
    http://ec.europa.eu/environment/integration/research/newsalert/pdf/39na1_en.pdf

  45. l, p

    The square root story tells us something about the state of fear that US students live with. We send our kids off to school and they might fall off a swing or get teased.

    In the US they send their children off to school wondering whether the will still be alive at the end of the day.

  49. Martin B says:
    Saturday, February 24, 2018 at 10:28 pm

    If the Parliamentary Labor Party, and in particular its leadership, had over time properly reflected the views of rank and file Labor members, then the Greens would barely be a splinter…

    This is rubbish. The Gs are an anti-Labor schism and always have been.

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