Essential Research was the only national poll of federal voting intention this week, and it’s made all but zero difference to the headline numbers on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. However, the YouGov Galaxy poll from Queensland has made a very substantial difference, reversing the 52-48 lead recorded to Labor there and knocking five off their seat projection. Conversely, the shallow pool of data from Western Australia since polling resumed for the year has pushed Labor’s lead there well above what seems plausible, added three to their seat tally with the latest update. I’m sure this will moderate over the coming weeks. The other changes this week are a gain for Labor in Victoria and a loss in South Australia. Exciting developments are looming in the world of BludgerTrack in a week or (more likely) two, so do stay tuned.
In other poll news, today’s Fairfax papers have a ReachTEL poll of New England, which finds 43% of its voters still intending to vote for Barnaby Joyce, compared with 65% at the December 2 by-election. However, Tony Windsor was included as a speculative response option, recording 26.1% support, with Labor on 12.1%. However, opinion is divided as to whether he should remain as Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister, favoured by 45.3%, or resign either from the front bench (26.7%) or from parliament altogether (20.5%).
With half a billion guns in circulation I am not sure what a ban would do now unless it actually forced people to hand in their infantry assault rifles.
meher baba
Could Hawke be added ? His ‘personally’ breaking the drought got him off to a flier 🙂
I reckon Trumble is (was) luckier than McMahon.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 5:51 pm
The Russians hackers were masters at shoring up the Trump vote enough to get over the line by exposing Clintonite hypocrisy which gave a rise to wavering republicans and created apathy in Democrat voters.
Yeah…this is a device that you seek to mimic in our own local context. You keep on hacking, Rex. Others among us will see to it that you, the N’s, the P’s and the dtt’s don’t get a free ride.
The Republicans used to be the party of national security. Not anymore. Now they are the ones defending Russia while it’s the Democrats sticking up for law enforcement agencies!
It’s like everything is ass-about.
George ChristHanson you say?
briefly @ #2304 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:00 pm
I’m an anti Lib-Lab booster, briefly. The exact opposite to an establishment booster like you.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5403527/Barnaby-Joyce-charged-taxpayers-stay-100km-home.html
Rex Douglas @ #2307 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:04 pm
You are mostly a bulshiitter.
Can anyone suggest a way to include tables in a post (data from a spreadsheet) so that the columns don’t get scrunched up together?
While the gun control in the US is a huge task to deal with the following should be possible in a sane country:
1. Ban semi automatics
2. Ensure there are sanity licences before legally purchasing a gun or being allowed to have unsupervised use of a gun
3. Rule that children under 10 do not have access to guns of any kind and hold parents liable if they do get access. This might at least stop murders by toddlers.
4, Require any person over 10 and under 16 to be supervised at all times with a gun so it cannot be in their possession
5. Treat gun ownership/unsupervised use of guns with exactly the same rules as apply to alchohol ie 21 is the legal age.
Ye s I know it is not a huge set of steps but it may be achievable in the US context.
The establishment Lib-Lab types seem to be not so interested in such things as asylum seekers being mentally tortured and indefinitely detained in offshore prison islands. Go figure…
daretotread says:
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 5:56 pm
Nicholas says:
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 1:58 pm
The Democrats have been useless on gun control.
At one with Trump, N sets out to blame the reformers for the bloodshed. What a total disgrace. The N’s, dtt’s and the other Trump-o-phones are an absolute sham. School children bleed, the Trump-o-phones rejoice.
Briefly/William
Sorry but I expect an apology or that you rusticate Briefly for a period.
I can handle being accused of being a Russophone but frankly any implication that I support gun massacre in ANY WAY SHAPE OR FORM is way way over the top.
It is just too much. This level of abuse is unacceptable not so much because of me but it is doing exactly what social disruptors and trolls do. Link totally unrelated issues.
I call time of this one William. I know I lead with my chin re Trump and Russia so I cam cop replies but since I am passionately opposed to gun ownership I call this one a step too far.
You do protest 2 much. You know you delight in the woes of the Americans. You call for them nearly very day.
Greensborough Growler @ #2309 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:06 pm
briefly and GG side by side in the establishment trenches sending everyone their thoughts and prayers…
Rex Douglas @ #2314 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:10 pm
You are a bullshitting nobody!
My recollection may be faulty, but didn’t Abbott claim expenses for crashing at an Army barracks in Sydney once?
briefly @ #2292 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 5:50 pm
Clearly not paid. Putin would demand better value for money.
Rex Douglas says:
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 6:10 pm
I have your measure, Rex….totally.
😆
Fess
That was more then a ‘crash’, I think that Abbott used the AFP as a home from home, refusing to sleep alone in the Lodge.
Luck , the science of the unexplainable. Shorten has it in truckloads and all the successful types possess it. Explaining good fortune by hard work alone is justifying the need for hard work by those who don’t possess luck.
Dare not I ever be accused of supporting Joyce but this character does possess the seeds of good fortune and it will now boost his fortunes in a different guise. To have even survived these last weeks displays his luck despite the persona and interlect of two short planks and the hide of a feral camel.
Joyce will exit politics because the country, the Nationals and thd Coalition just don’t need him thumping about the place causing more harm than good, unable to comprehend that plenty of other types can perform the job as DPM @ $400,000 per annum and provide better value for money.
All this is taking so long to evolve due to the dearth of talent within the coalition.
Shorten’s star is luminous in the extreme and it will project him a fair distance and no amount of rejection, criticism nor doomsdaying will prevent his success.
It’s the science!
lizzie @ #2320 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:15 pm
I reckon you’re right, lizzie.
https://www.wired.com/story/did-russia-affect-the-2016-election-its-now-undeniable/
Malcolm Nance says the Russian effort began in 2013 not 2014, but still, those people chanting ‘lock her up’ should feel embarrassed they were led by Russians posing as Americans. And has Bernie Sanders had anything to say about how his campaign benefited from Russian support?
lizzie:
No I’m not thinking about the time he stayed with the AFP – that was weeks if not months. But I have a recollection of him as LOTO claiming expenses for staying at Army digs in Sydney when his family home was in Forestville. I don’t think it ever really took purchase is msm, just on social media.
Confessions @ #2323 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:19 pm
Bernie’s only mistake was running as a democrat.
Shouldn’t Senator Bridget Mackenzie pull Pistol George into line?
Mind you, she is an apologist for NRA style right to carry so maybe not.
briefly @ #2309 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 5:09 pm
Your problem (or one of many) is that you are too thick to distinguish between an observation and a wish. I do not wish for the deaths of ANYONE and if you had the brains of a bush turkey you would understand that I am essentially a pacifist albeit with some exceptions. Since the US is the most aggressive nation on the planet and had been for 70 years, I welcome any activity that might curtail their aggression.
I opposed the Vietnam war, the Iraqi war, the Afghanistan invasion and the destabilisation of Syria and Libya. Although as a young thing I harboured romantic notions of “independence battles” by and large now days I think that stability is king in most countries and that any war even to overthrow a tyrant is probably a bad idea. Notice I used the words PROBABLY.
It is essentially an equation – will the outcome of any war, rebellion, invasion etc, SIGNIFICANTLY outweigh the negative impact of death, destruction and loss of social cohesion that any war or rebellion will inflict.
That my thick headed blogger is why I probably would be an appeaser in most cases. There are of course exceptions of which one is of course mass genocide or mass starvation.
When it comes to nuclear war yes I am un-apologetically an appeaser. I cannot see how any behaviour of any country no matter how bad can justify nuclear attack.
If you had the brains of a fruit fly you would reaise all my posts are consistent with this view.
Oh my!
Fess
Tony was very fond of uniforms, wasn’t he…
Bernie wouldn’t have had a hope in hell if he didn’t hijack the Democratic primary.
Rex
There is no similarity between Briefly and GG
GG is an honest sincere RW Labor type, but is never guilty of hypocrisy and by and large understands his positions and is consistent in his thinking. Sure it belongs in 1950, but it is still a genuine set of belifs and he sticks to them.
I rarely agree with him but I generally admire him for having convictions and sticking to them. Except sometimes a little late on a Satdy after excessive refreshment he can get a bit rude, but by and large is a decent guy.
Briefly is quite different. He fancies himself as a thinker but has no clear idea where his convictions lie. He imagines he is somehow on the left whereas fundamental he is well to the right of GG.
He is deeply emotional and parrots opinions he learned in his cradle but lacks the self perception to understand his own ideology.
daretotread says:
Sunday, February 18, 2018 at 6:25 pm
briefly @ #2309 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 5:09 pm
I’ll say it again. You do protest 2 much.
Bernie Sanders was by far the best candidate who ran for president in 2016. Sadly the DNC minimised the number of primary debates at the behest of the Clinton campaign, and collaborated with the Clinton campaign in other ways during the primaries. In a close contest where the the earned delegates split 54-46, the DNC’s unethical tampering with the process enabled the Democrats’ weakest candidate to be nominated. That candidate went on to lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – states that every other Democratic nominee of the past quarter century had won. She lost those states to a sexual predator and buffoon who was on tape boasting about committing sexual assault. You have to be a spectacularly poor general election candidate to lose traditionally Democratic states to someone like that.
The person who bears the single largest share of responsibility for Trump’s ascension is Hillary Clinton. She was the wrong candidate for the times and was too arrogant and self-absorbed to vacate the Democratic field to more suitable candidates such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Nicholas @ #2329 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 5:34 pm
well put
lizzie:
Our parliament will be better off when he finally retires. These creepy religious, semi-authoritarian types should be nowhere near the levers of lawmaking and public policy.
lizzie @ #2329 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:31 pm
Only when other people wore them.
daretotread @ #2334 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:37 pm
Fixed that for you.
Mueller’s indictments really have got the Republicans buoyed with confidence if this tweet is any indication.
Does he really want to go there with “very definitively” statements not knowing what is yet to come?
dtt,
I got accused of being an alcoholic multiple times by ESJ and Mr Bowe did nothing about that. Plus, I might add, the number of times you, yourself, have accused me of mental incapacity of one sort or another. Mr Bowe did nothing about that. I just had to suck it up. I suggest you do the same. As Mr Bowe is probably thinking, pots and kettles, right about now after your request to him.
lizzie @ #2339 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:44 pm
ScoMo-Bowen disagrees.
Tom NicholsVerified account@RadioFreeTom
3h3 hours ago
The president’s tweets tonight suggest a new level of panic and agitation that is unusual even for him.
Player One
Not necessarily. His mum said that as wee un you could not get him to take off a toy fireman’s helmet.
DTT, Rex and Nicholas may not be Russian trolls, but they are doing their work for them.
At every turn, they seek to undermine public trust in institutions. They are operating in the same way as the far-right, claiming that you can’t believe anything from any trusted source. Somehow, only they know what is truly going on!
They are anarchists, who would rather blow up the system than work within it.
It is tiresome to respond to their delusional posts, but people who truly believe in democracy can’t let their lies go unchallenged.
Fargo61 @ #2310 Sunday, February 18th, 2018 – 6:06 pm
Possibly save it as a .jpg file and post via tinypic.com.
DB Cooper
When it comes to ” undermine public trust in institutions.” there is no need for Russkiys. Thatcher,Reagan , Bush and Blair etc have done the work for them.
BW: “It is not binary. It is cumulative. There can be no doubt that Clinton campaigned poorly. Nor can there be any doubt that Sanders sucked scarce oxygen out of Clinton’s campaign, to the undoubted benefit of Trump.
Clinton has to wear responsibilities for her failures.
Sanders has to wear responsibility for helping Trump.”
BW, are you suggesting that nobody should have run against Hillary in the primaries? Because she was the anointed successor to Obama by dint of her status – like that of Grace Mugabe and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma – as having been the wife of a previous President?
In 1992 Bill Clinton – a relative unknown – ran against some far more credible candidates than Sanders in the shape of Jerry Brown, Tom Harkin and Bob Kerrey: men with strong records of achievements in government. He wiped the floor with them.
In 2008, Obama – an unknown – ran against Hillary: a massive favourite for the nomination with enormous “brand recognition” across the country.
Sanders, on the other hand, was a maverick independent who decided to join the Dems and run for the nomination not with any expectation of winning, but mainly as a platform to spruik his comparatively extreme policy agenda.
The fact that Hillary struggled to beat Sanders was due entirely to her weakness as a candidate. She was always going to have someone running against her. Sanders started as a joke candidate, but Hillary’s lack of charisma and sense of entitlement gave him a leg up. It’s pointless trying to blame him.
An observation about DTT’s posts on Trump/Russia. They often mirror talking points of Trump’s tweets, Russian bots (who en masse surge into action following any new development) and Trump surrogates on TV and social media. DTT is very quick off the mark with the same talking points following a new development. Then after a day or two when the dust has settled, those talking points have been cut to pieces. DTT then goes quiet. Rinse and repeat.
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/374361-mueller-adds-bank-fraud-to-manaforts-list-of-criminal-conduct
If Clinton had been elected Potus she’d have already been impeached even though the scandals she was accused of were baseless. But those gutless, cowardly sell out Republicans in Congress can’t bring themselves to put country before party (like they’ve spent years claiming they’re supposedly all over), and deal once and for all with the man-baby incompetent who is acting only out of self interest, selling out the country into the bargain.